Hundred Days of Israel's War on Lebanon: A Deepening Crisis

The Lead: 100 Days of Conflict

Beirut, Lebanon – Tuesday marks 100 days since the beginning of Israel's second military intensification against Lebanon in less than two years. Over the last 100 days, Israeli forces have destroyed dozens of villages in southern Lebanon. Despite rounds of direct diplomatic talks between Israel and Lebanon, multiple efforts to fully implement a ceasefire have fallen by the wayside.

The Event Details: Escalating Violence

Israel's latest war on Lebanon began on March 2, shortly after Hezbollah fired six rockets at Israel. Since then, Israel has killed more than 3,600 people in Lebanon, according to the country's Ministry of Public Health, including at least 245 children. Another 11,000 people have been wounded in Israeli attacks, among them at least 900 children.

The Data Analysis: Humanitarian Crisis

At least 1.2 million people have been forcibly displaced from their homes in southern Lebanon, eastern Lebanon's Bekaa Valley, and Beirut's southern suburbs. Many of them have been displaced more than once. Israel's military has also driven deeper into Lebanese territory – occupying about 2,000sq km (770sq miles) – than at any point since it occupied south Lebanon in 2000.

The Impact Analysis: Regional Implications

The conflict has drawn in regional powers, with Iran pledging to link the conflict to any ceasefire deal it makes with the United States and Israel. Hezbollah's main benefactor, Iran, has also tried to tie Lebanon to any ceasefire agreement between itself and Israel and the US. The Lebanese government is trying to impose its authority, and is under pressure from the US and Israel to crack down on Hezbollah.

The Prediction: Uncertain Future

Analysts believe Israel is not planning on withdrawing from Lebanon, with Israeli officials stating they will occupy up to the Litani River. The situation remains volatile, with no lasting ceasefire in sight. Hezbollah's secretary-general Naim Qassem labelled the latest ceasefire agreement a “shameless” attempt to annihilate part of the Lebanese people.