Iran War Fallout: Middle East Rivals Unite for Peace Deal, Pushing Trump Towards Acceptance

The Shift in Middle East Dynamics

The shock of the Iran war and its fallout has driven rivals in the Middle East to get behind a peace deal, pushing the Trump administration to accept a tentative agreement in the face of furious opposition from Israel and its supporters in Washington.

The Event Details

The diplomatic efforts come as the region is reshaping to adapt to diminished US power after Washington’s inability to land a knockout blow on Iran, force the opening of the strait of Hormuz or safeguard its Gulf allies. Tehran has few friends in the region, but the regime’s survival has meant that its neighbours have had to find an accommodation.

The Data Analysis

• The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, Bahrain, Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt have all swung behind the peace deal.
• The regional consensus-building process appeared to repair some of the bitter rivalry for influence between the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

The Impact Analysis

“We’re probably seeing the final days of American empire in the Middle East,” said Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at Kings College London. “Across the Gulf, there is complete disillusionment with American influence and the ability of America to lead.”

The Prediction

The US presence in the Middle East is expected to remain, but countries are reaching out to additional security partners in the region and beyond, with Europe set to take a bigger role. A new Middle East is emerging with Turkey, Israel and the Gulf states competing to fill the vacuum left by a weakened Tehran.