Iran, Kuwait, Bahrain Hit: Escalating Tensions in the Gulf

The Lead

Iran fired missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain in the early hours of Wednesday, and the United States launched strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, as tensions in the Gulf spiked amid an impasse in diplomatic efforts to end the war between Tehran and Washington that is now closing in on 100 days.

What Happened in Kuwait and Bahrain?

Kuwait's state news agency KUNA said Iranian missiles and drones had hit the country's international airport on Wednesday morning. It reported an unspecified number of injuries, damage to airport facilities and flight suspensions and diversions.

US Central Command (CENTCOM) said two Iranian missiles shot at Kuwait fell short or broke apart in flight, while several ballistic missiles failed to reach their targets.

The Data Analysis

• The escalation on Wednesday morning appears to have begun with the US hit on the Iranian oil tanker.
• Both sides appear to concur that Iran then attempted to strike other vessels in the Gulf.
• The US says it shot down the Iranian drones fired at ships and then hit Qeshm Island.
• Iran hit back by firing at Kuwait and Bahrain.

The Impact Analysis

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the US attacks on Qeshm Island as a violation of the ceasefire. It said Kuwait and Bahrain bore 'direct and clear responsibility' for the attacks, alleging their territory and facilities had been used to support US military operations against Iran.

The Prediction

Tehran is seeking access to billions of dollars in oil revenues, waivers on crude exports, a lifting of a US blockade on its ports and continued leverage over the strait, which handled a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas traffic before the war.