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Politics
May 11, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

Europe Must Adopt a Chinese Playbook to Survive the Age of Un‑Order, Says Mark Leonard

AI Summary
Mark Leonard argues that Europe’s reliance on Chinese supply chains and its adherence to outdated rules leave it vulnerable in the current geopolitical turmoil. He calls for a Chinese‑style strategy—stockpiling, decisive tariffs and a robust anti‑coercion toolkit—to secure Europe’s future.

Lead: Europe Faces an Age of Un‑Order

Europe is confronting a geopolitical landscape where traditional rules no longer apply, a situation the author Mark Leonard describes as “un‑order”. While the US and Israel are embroiled in the war in Iran, the real strategic contest is between China and Europe.

China’s Strategic Stockpiling and Market Dominance

China anticipated the crisis years ago, building massive reserves of oil, food and semiconductors, and securing control over rare earths and other critical minerals. This foresight has left it in a position of “remarkable equanimity” as European leaders scramble.

Quantifying Europe’s Dependence on Chinese Supply Chains

  • 80% of the global drone supply chain is sourced from Chinese firms.
  • 97% of the EU’s magnesium, essential for fighter jets and tanks, comes from China.
  • Key green‑technology sectors—batteries, electric vehicles, solar panels and wind turbines—are dominated by Chinese manufacturers.

Why Europe’s Current Approach Risks Deindustrialisation

Half‑hearted EU tariffs on the auto sector have only attracted a few BYD plants, insufficient to offset the flood of cheaper Chinese products. Without a decisive policy shift, Europe risks rapid deindustrialisation and increased vulnerability to coercion.

Path Forward: Leveraging Tariffs, the Trade “Bazooka” and Strategic Stockpiles

Experts propose a suite of tools: a 30% across‑the‑board tariff on Chinese goods, activation of the EU’s anti‑coercion “trade bazooka”, stricter enforcement of the Digital Markets Act, and the creation of strategic mineral reserves. Implementing these measures could rebalance the power dynamic and give Europe the agency to thrive in an age of chaos.