EU Industry Faces Fresh China Shock as Import Reliance Grows
The Looming China Shock
Europe is facing a fresh China shock that threatens to cannibalise local factories, leading to job losses and de facto colonisation of industry by Beijing, trade analysts and representatives have said.
The Event Details
They fear the plunging exchange rate and support for Chinese “zombie firms” has echoes of the crisis in the US 25 years ago when the term “China shock” was coined. It referred to the impact of China bursting on to the global trade stage after becoming a member of the World Trade Organization, with soaring imports displacing local industries and causing the loss of up to 2.5m jobs.
The Data Analysis
- EU imports 52% of amino acids from China by value, but 88% by volume.
- 96% of EU imports of polyhydric alcohols by volume come from China.
- China's surplus with Germany doubled from $12bn to $25bn between 2024 and 2025.
- An estimated 250,000 industrial jobs have been lost in Germany since 2019.
The Impact Analysis
Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, said: “When people think of China imports, they think of finished goods like EVs [electric vehicles] but that is not where the problem is. It is the sheer volume of components being imported from China. If anything, Europe is getting more dependent on China.”
The Prediction
Andrew Small, the director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said: “All of the China shock dynamics are holding – the tools used so far by the EU are not commensurate with the import levels.” The EU is considering measures to safeguard industry, including forcing European companies to buy critical components from at least three different suppliers.