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Economy
May 11, 2026
Analyzed by GPT OSS 120B

Researchers Find 42% Drop in Canadian Visits to U.S. Metro Areas Amid Trump 2.0

AI Summary
A University of Toronto research tool tracking cell‑phone activity shows a 42% year‑over‑year fall in Canadian trips to major U.S. metropolitan areas – far steeper than the 25% decline reported by official border statistics. The drop threatens border‑town economies and signals broader travel aversion amid heightened tariffs and immigration enforcement.

Researchers Unveil 42% Drop in Canadian Visits to U.S. Cities

A new cell‑phone tracking tool developed by the University of Toronto reveals a median year‑over‑year decline of roughly 42% in Canadian trips to U.S. metropolitan areas between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2026. The figure dwarfs the ~25% dip recorded by official border‑crossing data, suggesting Canadians are avoiding U.S. urban centres under the second Trump administration.

Methodology and Scope of the Cell‑Phone Tracking Study

The researchers analyzed anonymised device‑level location data to count Canadian‑registered phones entering U.S. metro zones. The period covered two full years, capturing both leisure and business travel, as well as freight‑related movements that traditional border counts miss.

Quantifying the 42% Decline vs Official 25% Border‑Crossing Figures

  • 42% median drop in Canadian visits to U.S. metros (cell‑phone data).
  • ~25% decline reported by government border statistics for the same period.
  • Official Canadian‑resident return trips from the U.S. fell 25% in 2025.
  • U.S.‑resident trips to Canada slipped 7.5% in 2025.

The discrepancy is partly attributed to the tool’s ability to capture freight traffic and temporary residents who may have returned to Canada.

Economic Ripple Effects on U.S. Border Towns and Tourist Hubs

Border‑town economies that rely on Canadian shoppers are feeling the pinch, as are major tourist destinations such as Las Vegas, Walt Disney World, and winter recreation areas in Florida. High‑tech and financial centres like San Francisco and Houston also reported reduced business‑related travel, reflecting broader economic uncertainty.

Specific city impacts highlighted by the study include:

  • Grand Rapids, Michigan – noted for its auto‑industry links with Ontario, saw a sharp decline.
  • New York, New Hampshire, Vermont – all experienced notable visitor drops.

Potential Trajectory of Canada‑U.S. Travel Under Ongoing Tariff and Enforcement Policies

If heightened tariffs, immigration enforcement operations, and political rhetoric continue, the researchers expect the travel gap to widen. They warn that reduced cross‑border tourism could further strain U.S. border‑town revenues and diminish bilateral business exchanges.

Monitoring cell‑phone mobility trends will provide a more granular view of future shifts than traditional border counts, offering policymakers a real‑time gauge of the economic fallout from trade and immigration policies.