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The Lead Ukraine has started to flex its muscle as an emerging air power, conducting deep strikes against Russian targets, which has angered Russia and prompted protests from the Kremlin. Ukraine's Deep Strikes Against Russia Ukraine used its latest technology to deepen strikes against Russian oil storage, ports, and refineries in the past week, bombing targets in the Urals 1,600 kilometres (990 miles) from its borders. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced 'a new stage in the use of Ukrainian weapons to limit the potential of Russia's war'. The Ukraine Security Service (SBU) struck Transneft's oil pumping and distribution facility in the city of Perm, where oil was pumped to the Perm refinery and via pipeline in four directions across Russia. The Data Analysis Ukraine's strikes have resulted in significant losses for Russia, including: 13% and 43% capacity losses at Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports on the Baltic Sea, respectively. 38% capacity loss at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. $2.3bn in revenue losses in March, according to Zelenskyy. The Impact Analysis Ukraine's campaign has begun to elicit reactions from the Russian government, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling the attacks on oil facilities 'terrorist attacks'. Russia's Ministry of Defence confirmed the strike and said it had downed 98 Ukrainian UAVs across various regions. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said Ukraine had likely conducted at least 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure in April. The Prediction Ukraine is now touting its battlefield innovations in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates in the wake of Iran's attack on the Gulf nations. Zelenskyy met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh to discuss 'the export of our Ukrainian security expertise and capabilities in air defence'. The burgeoning relationship with the Gulf has invoked Moscow's concern, and Zelenskyy said some allies are also irritated by the competition.

Ukraine has succeeded in depriving Russia of a large share of the windfall it would have earned from soaring oil prices in March and April, as a coordinated long‑range strike campaign crippled key ports and refineries. Ukraine’s Long‑Range Campaign Targets Russian Oil Infrastructure 21 March: First wave of strikes hit oil loading berths and the Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea. Subsequent attacks on 16 April and 20 April damaged the Tuapse, Sizran, Novokuibyshevsk, Samara and Gorky refineries, forcing several to halt operations. Ukrainian forces also struck oil‑related facilities in the Baltic ports of Ust‑Luga and Primorsk. Revenue Hit: $2.3 bn Lost in March Alone In a video address on 19 April, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed that Russia’s oil‑revenue losses from the campaign were “no less than $2.3 bn in March”. Oil transhipments fell by 300,000 barrels per day. Refined product shipments dropped by 200,000 barrels per day. Production and Export Decline: Record Lows Since 2024 Russian business daily Kommersant reported that April exports hit their lowest levels since the summer of 2024, with analysts warning they could fall to the lowest point of 2023 by month‑end. To compensate for the export slump, Russia cut crude production by an estimated 300,000‑400,000 barrels per day. The U.S. sanctions waiver, renewed on 13 April through 16 May, has not offset the decline. Fiscal Pressure and Strategic Implications for Russia Swedish intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson told the Financial Times that Russia needs oil prices to stay above $100 a barrel for the rest of the year to cover its budget deficit, a target now jeopardised by the export squeeze. Budget shortfalls are compounded by broader economic weaknesses after four years of war. Domestic support for President Vladimir Putin has slipped, with approval falling from 72.9 % to 66.7 % over six weeks. What’s Next: Russian Oil Outlook and Ukraine’s Expanding Defence Export Market With the EU clearing a €90‑billion loan for Ukraine and a new sanctions package targeting Russian energy, Moscow faces a tightening fiscal and diplomatic environment. Ukraine is leveraging its air‑defence expertise, signing 10‑year cooperation deals with Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, and courting additional Middle‑East partners. Continued strikes on Russian refineries could push export volumes even lower, forcing further production cuts and potentially accelerating a shift toward alternative revenue streams for Russia. The coming months will reveal whether Russia can stabilize its oil sector under sustained Ukrainian pressure and whether Kyiv’s defence‑export push can offset the economic fallout of the conflict.

For Konstantin, a 53‑year‑old resident of St Petersburg, the war in Ukraine has become a literal scent in the air. Over the past fortnight he has repeatedly detected the acrid odor of burning crude, fuel and chemicals drifting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s two largest Baltic oil terminals. The facilities at Ust‑Luga and Primorsk together handle about 40% of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Both ports lie within 150 km of St Petersburg, making the smoke visible – and smelt – to locals. Ukrainian drones have flown more than 1,000 km from the front lines to strike storage tanks and loading infrastructure, igniting fires that have burned for days. The smell, described by Konstantin as a mix of diesel exhaust, burning plastic and rotten eggs, first appeared in late March. These attacks are a key element of Kyiv’s strategy to erode Russia’s “unexpected windfall” from oil exports, a revenue stream that has surged as the US‑Israel campaign against Iran pushed global oil prices higher. Satellite imagery shows extensive damage at both terminals, with Ust‑Luga’s sprawling processing complex blackened by fire. As a result, both ports are currently unable to dispatch cargo, forcing traders to reroute oil to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume. Financial analysts estimate that the disruption has already cost Moscow roughly $1 billion in lost export earnings, according to Bloomberg data released on March 31. Moreover, every $10 rise in global oil prices translates into about $1.6 billion of additional monthly income for the Kremlin. Russian officials have blamed European nations for allegedly facilitating the drone overflights, but Ukrainian experts dispute this claim. Andrey Pronin, a pioneer of Ukraine’s drone warfare, emphasized that the strikes are meticulously planned to stay within Russian airspace, bypassing air‑defence systems. Since the campaign began, Ukrainian forces have targeted 13 oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic coast to the Volga region. The attacks are timed to coincide with the heightened profitability Russia enjoys from the Iran‑related oil price surge, according to researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University. Beyond the immediate economic impact, Kyiv views the strikes as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the idea of a temporary moratorium on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for concessions, though the strategy also inadvertently benefits Iran by sustaining higher oil prices. On the tactical side, Ukraine now relies heavily on FP‑1 drones produced by the domestic Firepoint company. These unmanned aircraft can carry up to 120 kg of explosives and travel roughly 1,500 km, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. For civilians living near the conflict zones, the nightly “fireworks” of explosions have become a grim routine. Abdulla, a Tatar resident of Crimea, described the constant shelling as a new normal, while analysts note that President Vladimir Putin remains resolute, using the ongoing talks with the White House as a diplomatic façade. Overall, the Ukrainian drone campaign illustrates how modern warfare increasingly intertwines kinetic attacks with strategic economic disruption, reshaping the dynamics of the Russia‑Ukraine war and its broader geopolitical reverberations.

Ukraine's military has launched a significant drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, targeting the port of Novorossiysk. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, the overnight attack hit the Admiral Makarov missile carrier in the port, which serves as Russia's largest oil exporting outlet on the Black Sea.The attack is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy exports and reduce Moscow's revenues. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, aiming to halt Russian oil exports and impact the Russian economy.Russian authorities reported that at least eight people, including two children, were injured in Novorossiysk. Videos posted on Telegram showed a fire at one of the oil port's docks. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko stated that debris from drones had fallen on two locations in the city, including a residential area.Russia's military claimed that air defense units had downed 148 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, located in the Novorossiysk port area, exports oil from Kazakhstan and has major US oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, as shareholders.The attack on Novorossiysk comes amid a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. On the previous day, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. These attacks are part of Ukraine's efforts to reduce Moscow's revenues from oil sales, which are crucial for the Russian economy.In response to the attacks, Russia's Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting the CPC terminal to inflict economic damage on its largest shareholders, including US and Kazakh energy companies.

Ukrainian drones have launched targeted strikes on key Russian oil infrastructure, hitting the Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in the central Nizhny Novgorod region. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, these overnight attacks were confirmed by Russian officials on Sunday.In Primorsk, which serves as one of Russia's main oil exporting outlets, Governor Alexander Drozdenko of Russia's northwestern Leningrad region reported that a pipeline was damaged. He later updated that a fuel reservoir in the port area leaked when it was hit by shrapnel.The NORSI oil refinery, Russia's fourth largest, was also targeted. Governor Gleb Nikitin of Nizhny Novgorod stated that a fire broke out at the plant after two facilities were hit. The attack also resulted in damage to a power station and several houses, although there were no reported injuries.These strikes are part of Ukraine's strategy to disrupt Russia's oil infrastructure and reduce a key source of revenue funding Moscow's war efforts. At one point last month, about 40 percent of Russia's oil exporting capabilities were shut down due to these attacks and other disruptions.Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have stalled, with high-level talks between the US, Russia, and Ukraine yielding no progress on critical issues like territorial concessions in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine has made significant gains on the battlefield, halving the Russian rate of advance in the past three months and reclaiming 470sq km of occupied territory this year. The country's military has also dealt a major blow to Russia's oil export capacity, striking key terminals and refineries, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which account for about 60% of Russia's oil export capacity.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured agreements with several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to export Ukrainian drone know-how in return for joint drone production support. This has enabled Ukraine to increase its drone production and effectively counter Russian advances.The Ukrainian military has also targeted Russian munitions production, striking the Promsintez explosives plant in the Samara region, which produces 30,000 tonnes of military explosives annually. According to estimates, Russia has lost 45% of its missile production capacity due to Ukrainian strikes.In response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia has begun to extend its drone strikes throughout the day, imitating Iran's tactics against the US and Israel. However, Ukraine has successfully shot down over 90% of the drones launched by Russia.