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The LeadUnited States President Donald Trump has threatened longtime ally Oman with military force if it gets involved in the dispute over shipping access to the Strait of Hormuz, as Washington's war on Iran once again risks engulfing the Middle East. Trump's threat to "blow up" Oman came as Muscat reportedly held talks with Iran about overseeing passage through the strategic waterway that handles more than 20 percent of the world's global oil traffic.Trump's Unprecedented Threat Against a Key Ally"Nobody is going to control it," Trump said of the strait during a cabinet meeting in Washington. "It's international waters, and Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up." This direct threat against a country with which Washington has had relations for more than 200 years has sent shockwaves across the region and drawn international criticism.While Hormuz is an international strait, most of it is located solely in Iranian and Omani territorial waters – not international waters – with parts of its outlying areas reaching United Arab Emirates (UAE) territorial waters. This geographical reality complicates Trump's assertion that the waterway is purely international.The Strategic Importance of the Strait of HormuzAs the only route for Gulf oil producers to ship exports to the open ocean, the strait has served as a free international maritime route for decades. Following the US-Israeli joint attacks on Iran on February 28, however, Tehran closed the waterway and began to assert sovereignty over it, including charging tolls of as much as $2m per ship at times.Under international maritime law, countries are not permitted to charge tolls to shipping passing through natural straits such as Hormuz, even where they are not in international waters. Countries can, however, provide services to shippers, such as insurance, maintenance and docking assistance.Regional Implications of Trump's ThreatShortly before Trump's comment, Iran's state television reported that Iran and the United States were close to agreeing on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) under which Tehran and Muscat would jointly control the strait. The proposal designates payments for passing vessels, framed as "fees for services" rather than "tolls."While the Trump administration has called the claims of such an MoU "a complete fabrication," analysts say his threat suggests that an understanding between Iran and Oman is precisely what the US president is trying to avoid."What Washington wants to prevent is the normalisation of Iranian control over Hormuz, dressed in administrative and legal clothing and given Arab cover by a US ally," Muhanad Seloom, non-resident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.International Reaction and Legal ConcernsCritics called the threat reckless. Raed Jarrar, the advocacy director at the US-based rights group DAWN, likened the US president's comments to those of a "mafia boss.""The UN Charter prohibits the threat of force against any state, and that prohibition binds the United States exactly as it binds everyone else," Jarrar told Al Jazeera. "Threatening to 'blow up' an Arab country because its waters happen to sit along an oil route Washington wants reopened is the same lawless logic that produced this war in February."Samir Puri, a visiting lecturer in war studies at King's College in London, said Trump's threat to Oman was "really surprising" and warned that it would "send shockwaves across the region."Oman's Diplomatic Role in the US-Iran ConflictOman has played a unique role in the region as a mediator between the US and Iran. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi was a key mediator in US-Iran nuclear talks before the war on Iran began. Just before the US-Israeli joint attack on Tehran in February, Albusaidi had been meeting US officials, including Vice President JD Vance, to facilitate negotiations about the future of Tehran's nuclear programme.Unlike other US allies in the Gulf, such as Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, Oman does not host US forces. It was nevertheless dragged into the conflict when Iran launched attacks on US military assets and energy infrastructure across the Gulf region in the early days of the war.Future Outlook for the RegionSeloom, from the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said Oman is "one Gulf state that is simultaneously a US security partner and Iran's most trusted Arab interlocutor.""In peacetime, that ambiguity is an asset. In wartime, it becomes a liability, which is precisely the inversion now playing out," he told Al Jazeera.The analyst argued that joint Iran-Oman control over Hormuz was "more posture than probability." "Oman's real interest is not co-owning Iran's blockade; it is brokering the strait's reopening," he said.Still, according to Seloom, the prospect of Iran and Oman jointly shaping the future of the Strait of Hormuz alarms the US president for three reasons: "It would turn Iran's grip on the chokepoint into a permanent post-war fact rather than a temporary act of war; it would set a precedent that littoral states can metre and monetise an international waterway, eroding the freedom-of-navigation principle the United States underwrites worldwide; and it would hand Tehran a strategic win that outlasts any ceasefire."

With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut and strategic oil reserves being drawn down at record speed, the global energy system is edging toward a chaotic “non‑linear adjustment.” A timely US‑Iran agreement could halt the slide and restore market confidence.Why Oil Markets Are Teetering on a Tipping PointThe market has bounced around the $100 mark since Iran’s retaliation to Operation Epic Fury. Although prices have not yet reached historic peaks, the underlying dynamics point to an imminent crisis:Record coordinated release of strategic oil reserves has bought temporary breathing room.Some Gulf production is being rerouted through pipelines, bypassing the strait.China’s import decline suggests stockpiling and demand shifts.Numbers Showing the Strain: Prices, Stocks, and Consumer CostsThe International Energy Agency (IEA) reports oil stocks are being depleted at a “record rate.” Analysts such as Hamad Hussain warn that if the strait stays closed, OECD inventories could hit “critically low levels” by the end of June, pushing Brent to $130‑$140 a barrel.Research by Jeff Colgan (Brown University) estimates U.S. consumers have already absorbed an extra $40 bn (≈$300 per household) in gasoline costs since the conflict began.Broader Economic Ripple Effects of Prolonged TensionsThe Washington‑based Institute for International Finance (IIF) notes the shock is spilling beyond crude:LNG, refined products, fertilisers, and freight costs remain elevated.Supply reliability across the global production system is now “tighter and more fragile.”GDP forecasts for oil‑importing economies are being revised downward as inflationary pressure mounts.Even if marine traffic resumes, the IIF expects only a “partial normalisation,” leaving the energy system vulnerable.What a US‑Iran Agreement Could Mean for Energy StabilityA comprehensive deal that reopens the strait would likely:Restore confidence, causing spot prices to retreat from peak levels.Allow inventories to rebuild, averting the “operational stress” scenario warned by Natasha Kaneva of JP Morgan.Mitigate the second‑phase shock affecting LNG, fertilisers, and industrial inputs.Conversely, continued stalemate could trigger “demand destruction,” with consumers cutting back, airlines trimming schedules, and refiners throttling throughput—shifting the market from a managed to a forced adjustment.

The Rise of Secondhand Shopping Once the preserve of jumble sales and charity shops, “preloved” fashion and homewares are now leading style and shopping trends in the UK. After the rapid growth of online retail, Britain is now witnessing “the normalisation of secondhand”, according to Adam Jay, the chief executive of Vinted’s main marketplace arm. Vinted's Expansion Beyond Fashion The UK is at the forefront of an international revolution, jostling for position with France to be Vinted’s biggest market, and is also one of its fastest growing markets, as the online marketplace moves beyond just selling clothes and into everything from smartphones and books to rugs. The Data Analysis Vinted was valued at €8bn (£7bn) in April when it sold €880m in shares. Sales through the site hit €10.8bn last year. Vinted generated €1.1bn in revenue, with net profits of €62m in 2025. Sales in Britain rose 47% last year. The Impact Analysis Vinted, Shein and Temu are all growing for “fundamentally the same reason”, which is “because it’s cheap and easy. Our main competitor is new [products].” Vinted shoppers save an average 72% on the price of buying an equivalent new item. The Prediction “I see a deep and sustained change in how people buy and how people think about things that they own,” says Jay. “We want people to be thinking about how they can give every item as long as possible life. Don’t allow things to sit in the back of the cupboard for years and years untouched. Get them to someone who’s going to love them, wear them, use them.”

The Diplomatic Ties The relationship between the US and Israel has long been a subject of interest and controversy. The two nations have enjoyed a strong alliance, with the US providing significant financial and military aid to Israel. The Normalisation of Scandal However, this relationship has also been marred by numerous scandals, including allegations of corruption and undue influence. The normalization of these scandals has raised questions about the accountability and transparency of both governments. The Implications The implications of this relationship are far-reaching, with significant impacts on the Middle East peace process and global politics. As the US and Israel continue to navigate their diplomatic ties, it remains to be seen how they will address these scandals and work towards a more transparent and accountable relationship.

The LeadThe United States-Israel war on Iran is not the result of a sudden escalation but the culmination of a long-term Israeli agenda to violently reshape the Middle East, former Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani tells Al Jazeera. Netanyahu's 'Illusion' and the US MisstepSheikh Hamad had warned of an impending conflict last year and urged Gulf states to push for a diplomatic resolution to resolve the crisis with Iran and prevent military strikes. He identified a push for a conflict with Iran and blamed it on a 'hardline faction' within Israel led by Netanyahu, who he said had been trying to drag the US into a war over Tehran's nuclear programme since President Bill Clinton's administration in the 1990s. The Strait of Hormuz: A New Global FlashpointAssessing Tehran's strategy, Sheikh Hamad said Iran successfully absorbed the initial military strikes of the war and subsequently dragged its feet on a settlement after realising it could leverage a new strategic advantage: the Strait of Hormuz. Calling the weaponisation of the waterway the 'most dangerous outcome' of the war, he warned that Iran is now treating the vital international chokepoint as its own sovereign territory. A Call for a 'Gulf NATO'In one of his most blunt assessments, Sheikh Hamad declared that the greatest threat to the Gulf is neither Iran, Israel nor foreign military bases but internal Gulf disunity. To counter this, he proposed the creation of a 'Gulf NATO', a joint political and defence project starting with a core group of strategically aligned Gulf nations with Saudi Arabia serving as its natural backbone. Gaza, Normalisation and a Late-1990s SecretTurning to the issue of Palestine, Sheikh Hamad condemned the killing of civilians on all sides but accused Israel of committing a 'moral and political disaster' in Gaza, where more than 72,500 Palestinians have been killed since Israel's genocidal war began in October 2023.

The Unexpected Calm in Markets Amid a Major Energy ShockDespite the biggest energy shock in modern history – jet‑fuel shortages within weeks, soaring oil prices and a looming global recession – equity indices and corporate earnings calls have shown surprising resilience. Investors have leaned on AI‑driven growth stories and existing stockpiles, creating a stark contrast between market optimism and supply‑chain warnings.Supply‑Chain Strain from the Hormuz ClosureThe closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of February has choked a critical artery for Gulf oil, forcing Asian governments to impose conservation measures and, in some cases, outright rationing. Europe’s response has been muted, with higher petrol and diesel costs felt by motorists but no immediate production halt.Lucid Motors (US‑listed EV maker) initially said its Saudi plant would stay on track, then warned of “disrupted supply of materials critical in our manufacturing processes”.BMW’s finance chief Walter Mertl described the impact as “limited” and “temporary”.Analysts note that many firms still lack visibility beyond tier‑two suppliers, a legacy of the COVID‑19 pandemic.Oil Stockpiles and Commodity Price PressuresJP Morgan commodities analyst Natasha Kaneva highlighted that oil inventories have acted as a “shock absorber” but could reach “operational stress levels” across OECD countries as early as next month.Current global oil stockpiles are down 15 % from pre‑conflict levels (source: IEA).Fertiliser, aluminium and key chemicals (solvents, caustic soda, ammonia, methanol, ethylene) are already seeing price spikes of 10‑30 %.Why Companies May Be Underestimating the Real ThreatSupply‑chain mapping efforts post‑COVID have improved tier‑one visibility, yet “a lot of companies don’t have good enough supply‑chain visibility at the tier‑three or tier‑four level”, says an unnamed industry consultant. As emergency stocks dwindle, manufacturers risk sudden production stoppages.Potential “hot” material shortages could emerge by late May, especially for aluminium and specialised chemicals.Without a “panic button” trigger, firms are “eking out wherever they can”, increasing reliance on costly spot purchases.What the Next 3‑6 Months Could Hold for Global TradeEconomists warn that even if the Hormuz channel reopens tomorrow, normalisation may take months. Inflationary pressure will persist, with higher commodity costs feeding into consumer prices across Europe and the US.European consumers could face sustained price hikes for fuel and industrial goods, even without outright shortages.US shale producers stand to benefit, while lower‑income households bear the brunt of higher energy bills.Political messaging in the UK is focusing on blame attribution rather than consumer preparedness, risking delayed public response.In sum, the current market calm masks a fragile supply‑chain foundation. If stockpiles run dry and tier‑three dependencies surface, the “degree of complacency” could quickly turn into a systemic bottleneck.

On Friday, Kosovo’s Basic Court in Pristina sentenced three ethnic Serb men to life imprisonment and a 30‑year term for their roles in the 2023 Banjska attack, a violent secession attempt that left one police officer and three gunmen dead.Judicial Verdict on the Banjska Terrorist PlotThe court convicted Blagoje Spasojevic and Vladimir Tolic to life behind bars and Dusan Maksimovic to 30 years for terrorism charges linked to the armed incursion in the village of Banjska near Kosovo’s northern border. Judge Ngadhnjim Arrni described the operation as a “well‑organised plan” using heavy weaponry aimed at cutting off the Serb‑majority municipalities and annexing them to Serbia.Sentencing Figures and Legal ChargesLife imprisonment: Blagoje Spasojevic, Vladimir Tolic30‑year jail term: Dusan MaksimovicCharges: Terrorism, armed assault, attempted secessionBroader investigation: 45 individuals initially charged; only three were tried in this session.Implications for Kosovo‑Serbia Relations and Regional StabilityKosovo has long accused Serbia of orchestrating the attack, a claim Belgrade rejects, insisting the perpetrators acted independently. The sentencing underscores the deep‑rooted divide, with roughly 50,000 Serbs in northern Kosovo refusing to recognise Pristina’s institutions and frequently clashing with police and international peacekeepers.The case also revives memories of the 1998‑99 war, during which more than 10,000 people were killed, highlighting the fragile peace that still governs the Balkans.Outlook: Potential Political Fallout and Security MeasuresAnalysts expect the verdict to fuel diplomatic friction, prompting Kosovo to tighten security in the north and possibly seek greater international support. Serbia’s ruling party, linked to businessman‑politician Milan Radoicic—who admitted organising the attack—may face increased scrutiny from both domestic opposition and EU mediators. Future trials could target additional suspects, and the incident may influence upcoming negotiations on normalisation of relations between the two sides.

Amid a wave of Israeli air strikes that have killed hundreds and displaced roughly 20 % of Lebanon’s population from the south, Lebanese banker Antoun Sehnaoui attracted fierce criticism after being publicly praised for his pro‑Israel activities. Sehnaoui, who chairs Societe Generale de Banque au Liban (SGBL), attended an event at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum – a venue he has financially supported. The commendation came from Morgan Ortagus, the U.S. Middle‑East envoy who, according to reports, is also Sehnaoui’s romantic partner. Ortagus framed support for Israel as a matter of "moral clarity", even when it entails personal risk. She highlighted Sehnaoui’s funding of a U.S.–Israeli opera project, noting that such transactions are technically illegal in Lebanon under the country’s ban on dealings with Israeli entities. Describing the banker’s lineage, Ortagus said he hails from generations of "committed Lebanese Christian Zionists" and that his family has been "trained to support the State of Israel and the Jewish people." She also referenced his father, Nabil Sehnaoui, a principal backer of the Lebanese Forces militia, which allied with Israel during the 1982 invasion and was implicated in the Sabra‑Shatila massacres. The timing of the endorsement proved especially contentious. Since mid‑March, Israel has been accused of employing a “quadruple‑tap” bombing technique designed to maximise civilian casualties, and more than a million southerners have fled their homes, deepening sectarian tensions. Lebanese social‑media users reacted with outrage, calling for Sehnaoui’s imprisonment, accusing him of betraying his nation, and even alleging he had converted to Judaism. One commentator, academic Makram Rabah, argued that while a museum visit should not be controversial, the overt support for Israel amid a fragile ceasefire is. Ortagus’s own record – marked by staunch opposition to Hezbollah and open advocacy for Israel since her appointment in April 2025 – has already drawn scrutiny over her suitability as a neutral broker in the region. Beyond the political backlash, Sehnaoui faces serious legal challenges. Lebanese prosecutors have filed money‑laundering charges against him and SGBL, alleging illicit currency‑trading activities that exacerbated the country’s financial crisis that began in 2019. The bank denies any wrongdoing. In the United States, a 2020 civil lawsuit filed by families of Hezbollah‑linked attack victims accuses SGBL of providing material support to the militant group – a claim the bank also rejects. Lebanese MP Paula Yacoubian warned that Sehnaoui’s recent maneuvers appear designed to secure personal immunity in exchange for facilitating Israel‑Lebanon normalisation, rather than delivering tangible benefits such as the safe return of displaced residents. While the controversy rages, a tenuous ceasefire has allowed tens of thousands of residents to return to the devastated south, many seeking the remains of loved ones or assessing the damage to their homes.

Israel has publicly stated its intention to pursue peace and normalisation of relations with neighboring Lebanon. The announcement, reported by Al Jazeera on 14 April 2026, underscores a potential shift in regional dynamics, hinting at a diplomatic outreach aimed at easing longstanding tensions between the two countries.