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The 2026 Australian federal budget, unveiled by Treasurer Jim Chalmers, delivers a mix of modest deficit improvements and bold tax reforms, most notably the removal of the 50 % capital gains tax discount and a $36.2 bn cut to the NDIS. The Budget’s Core Ambitious Tax Reforms The government is ending the long‑standing 50 % CGT discount and introducing a minimum 30 % tax rate on capital gains. Negative gearing is limited to new‑build properties, with existing investors grandfathered. Meanwhile, the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) will see spending flat‑lined in nominal terms, falling about 10 % in real terms by 2029‑30. Fiscal Numbers: Deficit Forecasts and Revenue Shifts Deficit projected to be smaller over the next four years than in the December mid‑year outlook. Unemployment forecast capped at 4.5 %. CGT reform expected to raise $2.3 bn in 2029‑30. NDIS cuts total $36.2 bn over four years. Potential revenue from a 25 % gas export tax estimated at $17 bn, but not pursued. Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) revenue remains modest, lower than beer and spirits excise. Policy Impact: Housing, NDIS, and Gas Revenue Choices Housing affordability remains a challenge; ending the CGT discount and restricting negative gearing aim to curb speculative demand, though the $2.3 bn revenue gain is modest relative to the 26‑year legacy of the discount. NDIS cuts will reduce real‑term support for people with disability, potentially widening inequality. The decision to forego a gas export tax in favour of a modest PRRT increase reflects reliance on volatile oil prices rather than a stable revenue stream. Outlook: What the Next Four Years May Hold If economic parameters hold—higher oil prices and inflation sustaining tax receipts—the deficit trajectory could stay on a downward path. However, any slowdown in commodity markets or a resurgence in unemployment could erode the modest fiscal gains. The housing reforms may gradually temper price growth, but significant affordability improvements will likely require further policy action beyond 2029‑30.

A recent court of appeal decision suggesting it's impossible to determine which identical twin fathered a child has sparked controversy among genetics experts. Prof Michael Krawczak from Kiel University, Germany, argues that this is not the case. According to Krawczak, the germ cells of monozygotic twins differ with sufficient probability and to a sufficient degree to allow their respective children to be clearly assigned to either of them using molecular genetic techniques.Krawczak and his colleagues first proposed this approach in 2012 and demonstrated its practical feasibility in 2018. While the required molecular genetic testing is costly, currently in the five-figure range, Krawczak questions whether these costs would be a significant enough barrier to preclude genetic testing, given the potential consequences of inaction for those involved.The court's assertion that it was "not possible" to determine paternity in such cases is therefore disputed. Krawczak's comments highlight the potential for genetic testing to resolve paternity disputes in cases involving monozygotic twins, offering a solution to a complex and sensitive issue.