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The LeadRhetoric surrounding Sudan's ongoing war has escalated with both sides indicating preparedness for a decade-long conflict, with devastating humanitarian and economic consequences for the nation.Commanders' War DeclarationsRapid Support Forces (RSF) commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as "Hemedti," recently announced that his soldiers were prepared to keep fighting "until 2040 if necessary." His remarks came days after his rival and Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan vowed to keep fighting until Sudan was "cleansed" of the RSF and estimated the war could last until 2033.Both sides increasingly appear to view the war as a long-term struggle for survival and control of Sudan, with UNDP Sudan Representative Luca Renda cautioning that "the longer the war continues, the greater the misery," describing the conflict as "the economics of suffering."Humanitarian CatastropheAccording to a joint report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Institute for Security Studies, more than 150,000 people have been killed since fighting began in 2023. Nearly 15 million people have been displaced, up to 24 million face food shortages and at least 19 million lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation.The report warns that Sudan's state institutions are on the verge of total collapse, with governance paralysed, healthcare and education systems shattered, markets destroyed, and production in agriculture, manufacturing and services severely weakened.Economic DevastationThe report projects that under a "Protracted Conflict" scenario with the war lasting until 2030, Sudan's GDP in 2043 would be US$34.5 billion lower than it would be with no war, GDP per capita would fall by roughly $1,700, while more than 60% of the population would be living in extreme poverty."A conflict lasting to 2030 would push an additional 34 million people into extreme poverty – that is the entire population of Ghana," Renda said. He warned that a $1,700 fall in per capita income in Sudan "is the difference between being a family that can eat and one that can't, between being a child who goes to school and one who goes to work."Despite Sudan's vast natural resources – including oil, gold and some of Africa's most fertile agricultural land – the war has crippled the infrastructure needed to sustain the economy. "Natural resources don't feed people on their own," Renda said, "and every year of war moves those resources further out of reach".Healthcare System CollapseHealthcare indicators point to an even more severe long-term crisis. Since the war began, an estimated 70–80 percent of health facilities in conflict zones have become non-functional because of targeted attacks and looting.At least 145 verified attacks on healthcare facilities and personnel have been documented, leaving about 65 percent of Sudan's population without adequate access to medical care. In Khartoum, only one in four hospitals remains operational in the capital.The report finds that Sudan was already seeing deaths increasing from non-communicable diseases, such as heart disease and stroke before the war. But the situation worsened after fighting escalated, with conflict-related injuries surging sharply, with more than 61,000 deaths estimated between April 2023 and June 2024 alone.Infant mortality is projected to worsen dramatically, with Sudan forecast to become one of the worst-performing low-income countries in Africa by 2043.Athar Abdalla Mohamed, a doctor and community medicine resident at the Sudan Medical Specialisation Board (SMSB), warned that the consequences of collapsing healthcare systems may continue for years after the war. "A child missing a vaccination today may become part of a preventable epidemic years later," she said.Education Crisis and Displacement"Nineteen million school-aged children have had their education disrupted, and only one in five schools is currently open," Renda said. "We are talking about a lost generation."He also warned that displacement is accelerating state collapse, as Sudan endures one of the world's worst displacement crises. "When doctors flee, clinics close. When teachers leave, schools shut," Renda explains. "Displacement doesn't just uproot people – it destroys communities and the fabric of the state, making it harder and harder to rebuild."Path to RecoveryRenda suggests that recovery remains possible if the war ends and reforms are implemented. Under a "Sudan Rising" scenario built around peace, governance reforms and economic reconstruction, Sudan's GDP could reach US$58.2 billion by 2043 – nearly US$20 billion higher than under current trends.Average economic growth could accelerate to five percent, while 17.3 million people could be lifted out of extreme poverty. "Our modelling shows what would be possible with peace this year and serious investment," Renda said. "That is a generation of work, but also a reason for hope and an irrefutable argument for doing everything possible to end the war now."Despite the scale of destruction, Dr Athar is optimistic that ongoing recovery efforts can lay the foundations for rebuilding Sudan. "I hope the ongoing efforts succeed in restoring hope, preserving what remains and helping build sustainable growth," she said.However, the trajectory appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with the doctor warning that Sudan is approaching a critical point. "Sudan cannot continue at this rate," she said. "The long term outcome depends greatly on whether efforts are made now to preserve essential services and invest in recovery before the damage becomes irreversible."Future OutlookWith both Hemedti and Burhan publicly signalling readiness for years – even decades – of war, Sudan risks becoming trapped in a cycle of state collapse, economic ruin and humanitarian devastation that could define an entire generation.

Sudan, one of the world's most impoverished countries, has been ravaged by a civil war that began in 2023. The conflict, driven by a power struggle between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has left the nation unrecognizable. Over 40,000 people have been killed, and about 14 million – a quarter of the population – have been forced to flee their homes. Civilian infrastructure across the country has been extensively damaged.“We are not just facing a crisis – we are witnessing the systematic erosion of a country’s future,” Luca Renda, the United Nations Development Programme’s (UNDP’s) resident representative in Sudan, told Al Jazeera. A report by the UNDP and the Institute for Security Studies highlights the scale of Sudan’s economic collapse. Even under the most optimistic scenario of peace being achieved in 2026, Sudan would still lose an estimated $18.8 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2043.The war has had a devastating impact on Sudan's infrastructure and basic services. $6.4 billion was lost in GDP in 2023 alone, reflecting a simultaneous collapse across all major parts of Sudan’s economy. The destruction of infrastructure has triggered displacement and made it difficult for people to secure adequate housing or access basic services. Up to 40 percent of power generation capacity has been lost, and key water infrastructure has been destroyed or seized, cutting communities off from clean water and sanitation.The labor market has also been severely affected, with agriculture – once the backbone of Sudan’s economy – severely hit. Cultivated land has shrunk, adversely impacting rural livelihoods. Average incomes have fallen back to levels last seen in 1992. About 90 percent of manufacturing activity has been destroyed in key economic hubs, eliminating thousands of jobs.The oil industry has suffered significantly, with oil output falling amid widespread instability and infrastructure damage. The Khartoum refinery, which previously processed up to 100,000 barrels per day, has been out of operation since July 2023. Key infrastructure, including pipeline routes carrying crude to Port Sudan, has been hit.The collapse of the Sudanese pound and supply chains has caused a sharp rise in living costs. Food prices have surged, with four pieces of bread now costing about 1,000 pounds, an amount that had previously bought six pieces. Wages have failed to catch up with inflation, leaving many households without access to necessities. Nearly half the population is now experiencing acute food shortages.The economic collapse has had a profound impact on Sudan's people, with 34 million people in need of assistance and 19 million facing acute food shortages. The war has caused death, trauma, and profound loss, casting a long shadow over Sudan’s future and dimming the prospects of a generation whose lives are being shaped by violence. If the conflict continues to 2030, Sudan’s economy in 2043 would be about $34.5 billion smaller than it would have been without the war, and GDP per capita would drop by roughly $1,700.

The economic consequences of an Iran war could have devastating effects on global poverty, with 32 million people at risk of being pushed into poverty worldwide. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) warns that developing countries will bear the brunt of this impact. In a report released amid concerns over a fragile ceasefire, the UNDP highlights a 'triple shock' affecting energy, food, and economic growth. This conflict is reversing international development gains, with uneven regional impacts expected. Alexander De Croo, UNDP administrator and former Belgian prime minister, emphasizes that even if the war ends, its impact will persist, especially in poorer countries where people may be pushed back into poverty. He notes that those who had previously escaped poverty are now at risk of falling back into it. The report outlines three scenarios for the war's impact. In the worst-case scenario, involving six weeks of major disruption to oil and gas production and eight months of higher costs, 32.5 million people globally could fall into poverty. The UNDP uses the upper-middle-income poverty line, an international standard defined as income below $8.30 per person per day, calculated by the World Bank. To mitigate these effects, the UNDP suggests targeted and temporary cash transfers to protect vulnerable households in developing nations, estimating a cost of about $6 billion to neutralize the shocks for those falling below the poverty line. The agency also recommends interventions like temporary subsidies or vouchers for essential services. The news comes as Western governments face criticism for cutting aid spending amid economic pressures and increased defense spending. The UNDP and other international agencies stress the importance of maintaining or increasing development aid to support countries hardest hit by the economic fallout.

In the devastated streets of Gaza City's Tuffah neighborhood, residents are taking matters into their own hands to rebuild their homes. Mohammed al-Jadba, a 31-year-old father of 10, is using stones from the rubble of his destroyed house and mud to construct a new shelter. His home, once a four-storey building, was reduced to rubble during Israel's genocidal war on Gaza.With Israeli restrictions on imports preventing the entry of essential construction materials like cement, Gaza residents are forced to get creative. Mohammed has been collecting iron, window frames, and door frames from his old house to use in his new build. The mud, mixed with human hair collected from barbershops, is being used to stick everything together.The United Nations estimates that it will cost $70bn to fully reconstruct Gaza, with 92% of residential buildings damaged or destroyed. An urgent $20bn is needed within the first three years to initiate basic recovery and restore essential services. However, reconstruction efforts have been hindered by continued Israeli restrictions on the entry of construction materials and heavy machinery.As a result, Palestinians in Gaza have focused on partial reconstruction, using available materials to make damaged homes habitable. The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has worked on over 230 housing units, benefiting more than a thousand people. However, these interventions are temporary solutions, and the real solution remains elusive.Abdel Nasser al-Jalousi, a 55-year-old resident of Khan Younis, has benefited from partial rehabilitation projects. His heavily damaged home has been made habitable with tarpaulins used as substitutes for walls, doors, and room partitions. However, he stresses that these materials are not a long-term fix and will need to be replaced every season.The scale of the crisis remains severe, with over 213,000 families living in tents and widespread damage during winter storms. The situation highlights the need for political will and massive resources to rebuild Gaza and provide sustainable solutions for its residents.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) released a stark assessment on Tuesday, projecting that a four‑week US‑Israel conflict with Iran could slash Arab regional GDP by 3.7 % to 6 %. In monetary terms, the loss translates to a contraction of $120 billion to $194 billion, marking one of the deepest economic shocks in recent Middle‑East history. UNDP’s regional director, Abdallah Al Dardari, warned that the downturn would likely eliminate 3.7 million jobs and drive around four million additional people below the poverty line. He described the situation as exposing the “fragility of the Arab economy.” The analysis is based on a scenario of a “short but intense conflict lasting for four weeks.” Should hostilities extend beyond that window, the economic fallout could be even more severe, especially as Iran’s attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure tighten oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Amid tightening supplies, Brent crude futures surged 4.7 % to over $118 per barrel. The report highlighted that disruptions to “strategic maritime corridors” generate “knock‑on effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains,” threatening the livelihoods of interconnected economies across the region. Poverty spikes are expected to be most pronounced in the Levant and in “fragile” states such as Sudan and Yemen, where baseline vulnerability is already high and economic shocks translate quickly into welfare losses. Lebanon faces a compounded crisis after Hezbollah’s retaliatory strikes against Israel, following the US‑Israeli killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February. Ongoing air strikes, evacuation orders, and widespread destruction of residential areas, transport networks, and public services have triggered large‑scale displacement. Al Dardari concluded with a plea: “We hope the fighting will stop tomorrow, as every day of delay has negative repercussions on the global economy.”