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The Record Low Indonesia's rupiah has hit its weakest level ever against the US dollar, breaching the psychological 18,000 threshold amid surging energy costs. The currency hit 18,028 against the greenback on Thursday, despite recent central bank efforts to provide support. The Energy Shock The energy shock driven by the US-Israel war on Iran has placed a significant strain on energy-importing Southeast Asian economies, particularly Indonesia and the Philippines. The resulting pressure on trade balances has contributed to capital outflows and weaker currencies. The Economic Impact Gulf hostilities flared again on Wednesday, sending oil prices up more than 1 percent. Adding to regional uncertainty, the United States has proposed additional import duties of 10 percent or 12.5 percent on goods from 60 economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, over alleged forced labour failures. Expert Analysis Permata Bank chief economist Josua Pardede said that an exchange rate of 18,000 was a “psychological threshold” for market investors. The weakening, he told the AFP news agency, was fuelled by high dollar demand caused by the spike in oil prices and a narrowing trade surplus. Future Outlook “Dollar supply from goods trade is dwindling, while dollar needs for energy imports, raw materials, dividends, foreign debt payments and seasonality needs remain significant,” he said. “This is why the increase in the BI [Bank Indonesia] lending rate and intervention is not enough to reverse the rupiah’s [depreciation].”

The LeadThe Southern Africa Litigation Centre (SALC) has initiated a significant legal challenge against South Africa's National Conventional Arms Control Committee (NCACC), arguing that arms exports to the United States may violate domestic legislation and international peace and security standards. The case represents a rare challenge to South Africa's arms export policies and comes amid already strained diplomatic relations between the two nations.Legal Challenge DetailsSALC filed its application in the North Gauteng High Court in Pretoria, seeking to either suspend or set aside the arms export permits granted by the NCACC. The organization contends that the committee failed to properly apply the standards set out in South Africa's National Conventional Arms Control Act, which requires authorities to refuse or withdraw permits where there is a risk that arms exports could contribute to human rights violations or undermine international peace and security.The legal challenge targets several high-level respondents, including the chairperson of the NCACC, the minister of defense, and the president of South Africa. At the time of the filing, the government had not issued a public response to the lawsuit.Financial Impact of Arms ExportsAccording to SALC, South Africa authorized arms exports worth tens of millions of US dollars to the United States in 2025 alone. The organization claims it had previously raised concerns with authorities regarding these permits but did not receive a substantive response, prompting the legal action.The financial value of these exports underscores the significance of the case, as it involves substantial economic interests alongside human rights and international security considerations.International Relations ImplicationsThe lawsuit emerges within a complex diplomatic context between South Africa and the United States, which have experienced differences on various issues including foreign policy, trade, aid policy, and international cooperation. While the legal challenge does not directly address diplomatic relations, it arises from and contributes to the broader international discourse on arms control and global security.Notably, SALC believes this case to be the first in South Africa to challenge arms exports to a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council on the basis of international law and human rights concerns, though this claim has not been independently verified.Future OutlookA hearing date has not yet been set for the case, and the High Court has not ruled on the merits of the application. The outcome of this legal challenge could potentially set a significant precedent for South Africa's arms export policies and its approach to international human rights obligations.The case also highlights growing global scrutiny of arms transfers and their potential human rights implications, particularly when involving major military powers and regions of geopolitical significance.

Escalating Protests Threaten Bolivia’s Political StabilityProtests that began in early May have swollen into a nationwide crisis, with barricades encircling La Paz and dozens of pickets operating simultaneously. Demonstrators are demanding the immediate resignation of President Rodrigo Paz, accusing him of abandoning the country’s structural problems.Mass Blockades and Demands for President Paz’s ResignationSince May 6, hundreds of protesters have erected roadblocks that now surround the capital, maintaining an average of 20 simultaneous pickets each day. The movement has secured backing from the Bolivian Workers’ Union (COB) and other historic social organisations, while former President Evo Morales leads a 190‑km march toward La Paz.Key grievances include repeal of a controversial land‑classification law, compensation for damaged vehicles, and a financial bonus for teachers.Indigenous groups from the highlands are using road blockades to force a political turnover.Government response: no state of emergency declared; authorities are opening limited humanitarian corridors for food and medicine.Casualties, Detentions and Economic Disruptions: The Numbers So Far120+ people detained during the latest wave of unrest (Monday).11 injuries reported among protesters and police.School classes suspended in several districts; public transport disrupted across La Paz and El Alto.President Paz won the 2025 election with 55% of the vote; the former MAS secured only 3%.Six months into the presidency, the administration has eliminated a tax on large fortunes and cut fuel subsidies, actions that sparked further anger.Underlying Grievances: Indigenous and Working‑Class DiscontentAnalysts point to a deeper rift between the new centrist government and the Indigenous and working‑class sectors that helped elect Paz. The president’s cabinet lacks Indigenous representation, and recent policy moves—such as approving genetically modified seed laws and aligning with the United States and Israel—are viewed as favouring business elites.Economic indicators have also deteriorated: declining gas exports, a shortage of US dollars and rising inflation have eroded the prosperity achieved under the former MAS regime.Possible Paths Forward: Dialogue, Power‑Sharing or Further TurmoilGovernment officials say they will pursue a dual strategy: dialogue with legitimate social sectors and legal action against groups deemed to threaten democracy. Proposals on the table include creating a ministry that incorporates social organisations and establishing a broader "social pact" to address long‑standing exclusions.However, if negotiations stall, the risk of intensified violence—already evident in clashes between miners armed with dynamite and police—remains high, potentially prompting a harsher security crackdown or, conversely, a political reshuffle that could reshape Bolivia’s power structure.

The End of a Lengthy Shutdown Iran's stock market has reopened after a near-three-month closure, with a controlled reopening that allowed investors to generate some liquidity. The Tehran Stock Exchange was closed due to the US-Israel war, which had a significant impact on the country's economy. Market Reopening Details The reopening was limited, with about a third of the market's main players absent to protect shareholders from the effects of the war. A total of 42 ticker symbols for companies representing about 36% of the market were offline. Trading windows were extended by one hour on both days to facilitate the reopening. Economic Impact Analysis The market's reopening was marked by modest gains, with the TEDPIX index seeing a 44,000-point increase on Wednesday to stand at over 3,758,000. However, the underlying economic troubles persist, with steep inflation plaguing Iran in recent months. The real price of shares has been reduced, and a sharp fall in the value of the Iranian rial against the US dollar has made export-oriented companies appear more attractive. Challenges Ahead Economist Mehdi Haghbaali noted that the two-day reopening went better than expected, but this could be more rooted in how bad the economy already was rather than a genuinely positive sign. He warned that trade has been severely disrupted, exporters will face difficulties maintaining operations, and rising inflation will further hinder the creation of real value, which will be reflected in stock valuations. Future Outlook The inflation rate was over 70% in late April, and the situation has only gotten worse with the US imposing a naval blockade of Iran's southern ports. Facing a huge budget crunch, the government's room to respond has been limited. A peace agreement between the US and Iran could fundamentally change the outlook, improve market expectations, and provide relief to the economy.

The Lead: A New Global OrderRussian President Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, have signed a joint declaration following their meeting in Beijing, focusing on building a "multipolar world and a new type of international relations". The two countries also announced that they had signed a large package of deals solidifying bilateral cooperation in the future.The meeting came just days after United States President Donald Trump completed his own visit to China for a two-day summit with Xi.Establishing a Multipolar World OrderOn Wednesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said: "The two countries will also issue a joint statement on advocating for a multipolar world and a new type of international relations." Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov described this declaration as a 47-page policy document.A "multipolar world" is understood as one in which economic, military and diplomatic power and influence are placed in the hands of three or more countries, rather than just one or two."Xi is calling for a more multipolar world, where the US has less power and influence," Al Jazeera's Katrina Yu reported from Beijing as the meeting was under way.Both Putin and Xi have spoken out against the "unipolar" hegemony that they say the US has over the world.In 2022, shortly after the beginning of Russia's war with Ukraine, Putin accused the US of stoking hostilities in Ukraine to maintain its global influence."They need conflicts to retain their hegemony," Putin said during a speech. "The era of the unipolar world order is nearing its end."Chinese state media reported that during the latest meeting, Xi said to Putin: "The tide of unilateral hegemony is running rampant."Russia-China Relations Reach Unprecedented LevelA press statement posted on the Kremlin website said relations between Russia and China had reached "a truly unprecedented level and continue to develop".The Chinese Foreign Ministry statement said: "Both sides should follow the trend of peace, development, cooperation, and win-win results to promote higher-quality development of China-Russia relations."The statements added that bilateral cooperation extends to the worlds of economics, sport, education and the media.The Kremlin statement adds that this year marks the 70th anniversary of partnership between the Russian TASS news agency and the Chinese Xinhua news agency.Deepening Economic Cooperation and Moving Away from the US DollarThe Kremlin statement said Beijing and Moscow had signed around 40 intergovernmental, interagency and corporate documents. "Many of these focus on the further deepening of our economic cooperation," it noted.The statement added that, last year, trade between the two countries reached almost $240bn, while the Chinese statement said bilateral trade grew by 20 percent in the first four months of this year.Since the war in Ukraine broke out in February 2022, Russia has become increasingly reliant on Chinese technology and manufacturing. Last month, Bloomberg reported that Russia now imports more than 90 percent of the technology targeted by US and European Union sanctions via China, using Chinese suppliers and intermediaries to obtain components with military and dual‑use applications vital to drone production and other defence industries."Both sides should build on this momentum, deepen the alignment of China's 15th Five-Year Plan with Russia's development strategy until 2030, promote the upgrading of mutually beneficial cooperation in various fields, and serve the development and revitalization of both countries," the Chinese ministry statement said.The Kremlin statement said that nearly all import and export transactions between Russia and China are in roubles and yuan. "In other words, we have actually created a stable system of mutual trade that is protected from external influence and negative trends in the global markets," it said.Securing Energy Supplies Through Siberia 2 PipelineThe Kremlin said on Wednesday that an understanding had been reached for the route and construction of the long-delayed joint Siberia 2 pipeline, but details are still being negotiated. Once completed, the pipeline will transport 50 billion cubic metres of Russian gas annually to China via Mongolia, significantly expanding energy flows between the two countries.The Kremlin's statement said that Russia and China are actively cooperating in the sphere of energy."Our country is one of the largest exporters of oil, natural gas (including LNG) and coal to China. We are definitely ready to continue to ensure reliable and uninterrupted supplies of these types of fuel to the rapidly growing Chinese market," the statement said.As European markets have largely closed to Russia as a result of the war in Ukraine, China has emerged as a crucial buyer of Russian oil and other energy products, benefitting from steep discounts on Russian products.In December 2022, the Group of Seven (G7), the EU and Australia placed a cap on the price of Russian oil at $60 per barrel, ostensibly to reduce Russia's ability to fund its war in Ukraine. The cap was later reduced to around $48 by the EU and the United Kingdom.Expanding Educational and Scientific TiesBoth statements said Xi and Putin had agreed to expand student exchange programmes and cooperation between universities and research platforms to boost joint scientific research.

The Confrontation in La Paz Bolivian security forces have clashed with followers of ex-President Evo Morales as they marched into the capital as part of a nationwide protest movement fuelled by the nation’s worst economic crisis in a generation. Protesters' Demands and Actions After a six-day march through the Andes, thousands of Morales’s supporters, some brandishing dynamite sticks and slingshots, converged on the capital, La Paz, on Monday, where they were met by riot police. Dynamite blasts rumbled downtown. Security forces fired back with canisters of tear gas that wafted over demonstrators who called for the president’s resignation just six months into his tenure. “Homeland or death, we will win!” they chanted. Economic Crisis and Government Response Rallies and roadblocks that started over two weeks ago have become the biggest challenge so far to President Rodrigo Paz, Bolivia’s first conservative leader after nearly two decades of socialist governance, and have provoked shortages across the country. Paz came to office last year as a wave of conservative leaders allied with the administration of President Donald Trump in the United States swept Latin America. Inheriting the nation’s most severe economic crisis in 40 years, Paz has struggled to replenish Bolivia’s scarce fuel, restrain its enormous budget deficit and resolve its shortage of US dollars, while also placating the powerful Morales-linked groups that could disrupt his presidency. International Support and Condemnation Paz accuses Morales of orchestrating the unrest to undermine his administration, and the president has seen support roll in from neighbouring states. Eight allied Latin American governments, from Argentina to Panama, released a joint statement last week rejecting “any action aimed at destabilizing the democratic order”. The US Department of State added to the condemnation on Sunday, saying it supports Paz’s efforts “to restore order for the peace, security, and stability of the Bolivian people”.

The Humanitarian Crisis in the Strait of HormuzStranded at an Iranian port for nearly 10 weeks, Indian seafarer Anish has unintentionally become a firsthand witness to the Iran war. Anish arrived in the Shatt al-Arab waterway on a cargo ship days before United States President Donald Trump launched "Operation Epic Fury" on February 28. He has been stuck on the vessel ever since, facing dangerous conditions and uncertainty about when he can return home.Civilian Crews Caught in Military Crossfire"We've faced the whole situation here, the war, the missiles," Anish, who was granted a pseudonym after agreeing to speak on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera. "Our minds are terribly distracted." Some of his fellow Indian seafarers have been able to return home by crossing Iran's 44km land border with Armenia, but many others have remained because they are still waiting to get paid. "Some are stuck because of their Indian agents; they are not getting their salaries," Anish said, referring to the middlemen who recruit seafarers, manage payrolls and take care of other employee matters on behalf of shipping firms.The Scale of the Maritime StandstillAnish's predicament is one faced by an estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded since Iran in effect shut the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for the United States and Israel's attacks on the country. Before the war, the strait functioned as one of the world's most critical shipping routes, carrying about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, and one-third of the seaborne fertiliser trade. Despite the announcement of a tenuous ceasefire between Washington and Tehran on April 7, maritime traffic has remained at a standstill amid recurrent attacks in and around the waterway.Economic and Human Toll of the ConflictThe United Nations International Maritime Organization estimates that at least 10 seafarers have been killed since the start of the war. Iran's merchant marine union reported that at least 44 Iranian seafarers, including dockworkers and fishermen, had been killed as of April 1. While seafarers on board vessels operated by major international shipping lines have been receiving hazard pay and other assistance, some seafarers working with smaller operations are struggling to get paid or have their basic needs met, according to labor groups.Global Supply Chain DisruptionThe strait's closure has created significant disruptions to global supply chains. Lloyd's List reported that at least four commercial ships were fired upon in recent days, while a container ship operated by French company CMA CGM reported coming under attack while crossing the waterway. The longer the war drags on, the higher the risk that ship operators will abandon their vessels without settling all outstanding pay, according to seafarers' advocates.Psychological Impact on SeafarersSteven Jones, the founder of the "Seafarer Happiness Index," said seafarers' self-reported wellbeing score has fallen about 5 percent during the war. Seafarers have described seeing Iranian drones and missiles flying at low altitude. "One told us: 'What scares me the most is the thought of an intercepted drone or missile falling on us,'" Jones said. Other seafarers have reported dwindling food supplies and preparing escape plans.The Legal and Logistical ChallengesCrew rotation has become a major pressure point for ships. Under the 2006 Maritime Labour Convention – an international treaty ratified by 111 countries, including China, India, Japan, Australia, and the United Kingdom – the maximum time a seafarer can be required to serve on board is 12 months. While seafarers have a legal right to leave their vessel beyond this period, unstable conditions have made repatriation a complicated and expensive prospect.Mine Warfare in Critical WaterwaysFor the stranded seafarers, there is also the question of finding a safe route out of the strait, where Iran has reportedly laid sea mines. US officials told The New York Times last month that Tehran had laid the mines haphazardly and was unable to locate all of them. "There has been a lot of speculation about more precise numbers, but the fact is that we don't know; uncertainty is central to mine warfare, and creating uncertainty about risk is part of the point of conducting it," Scott Savitz, a senior engineer at the US-based Rand Corporation who has studied naval mine warfare, told Al Jazeera.Uncertain Path Forward for SeafarersEven if the strait were to reopen tomorrow, trade flows would take some time to return to normal due to damaged regional infrastructure, maxed-out storage facilities across the Gulf and a backlog of exports, according to shipping and logistics experts. The IMO announced in late April that it was working on an evacuation plan that prioritizes ships based on humanitarian need, but that "all parties" involved in the conflict would need to refrain from attacks for such an operation to proceed.Personal Stories of Stranded WorkersAnish, the Indian seafarer, said he has not been paid by his Dubai-based agent for nine months. He is supposed to receive a payment in US dollars later this month, but he is worried that his company may withhold the sum. "My contract finish date is the 20th of May," Anish said. "Maybe the company will provide my salary after that," he said. "I don't know."Future Outlook for Global Maritime Trade"It's a very dangerous moment," the ITF's Cotton said. "We're all saying the same – don't transit unless you know it's safe – but I don't think anyone really knows what's safe any more." Savitz said that it would be possible to establish an exit corridor in a few days, but clearing the strait of mines could take weeks or even months. "Iran has stated that it has laid mines in and around the Strait of Hormuz, but it's possible that they have laid them in other areas," Savitz said.

The Impact of US Sanctions on Iran's Economy Iran's national currency has plunged to new lows as authorities mobilise to dampen the impact of the naval blockade enforced by the United States. The Iranian rial shot above 1.81 million to the US dollar on the open market by early afternoon on Wednesday before partially recovering. The Freefall of the Rial The embattled currency changed hands for about 1.54 million earlier this week, and its rate was about 811,000 per US dollar a year ago. The rial had remained relatively stable over the past two months after experiencing an earlier drop as US forces amassed in the lead-up to the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began at the end of February. Economic Consequences of the Blockade The latest freefall follows on from unchecked inflation, which has been increasingly plaguing the Iranian economy as a result of mismanagement and sanctions, and continues to ravage households. Washington now has three aircraft carriers in the region and is bringing in more troops and equipment as Israel expresses readiness to restart fighting, three weeks after a ceasefire began. Non-Oil Trade Takes a Hit According to customs data released by state media, Iran's non-oil trade has been negatively affected after commercial ties were disrupted or cut off as a result of the war, and critical infrastructure was bombed. Iran's customs authority put the total value of non-oil trade in the Iranian calendar year that ended on March 20 at close to $110bn, with $58bn going to imports. Oil Exports in the Crosshairs The US is using its military capabilities and economic chokeholds to drive down Iran's oil exports, a goal that it has also pursued over recent years through sanctions. Since mid-April, the US military has been deploying its soldiers to take over or inspect ships transiting through waterways near Iran, in addition to targeting what is known as a shadow fleet of tankers used by Iran to circumvent sanctions and ship its oil.

The Lead: Trump's Warning to IranUnited States President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning to Iran, declaring they must "get smart soon" following a proposal from Tehran that would postpone a deal on Iran's nuclear programme. The president took to his Truth Social platform to criticize Iran's inability to "get their act together" and sign a nonnuclear deal, accompanied by an AI-generated image of himself carrying an assault rifle with the banner "NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!"The Event Details: Stalled Nuclear TalksThe latest threats from Trump come as uncertainty surrounding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire grows, days after the president called off the latest round of talks with Tehran. Although Washington stated it was reviewing Tehran's proposal, it received a lukewarm response, with the White House emphasizing Trump would "not be rushed into making a bad deal" and that "Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."The Data Analysis: Economic Impact of SanctionsWashington has claimed to have imposed additional financial pressure on Tehran. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced his department has "targeted Iran's international shadow banking infrastructure, access to crypto, shadow fleet, and weapons procurement networks." Last week, the Treasury sanctioned an independent Chinese oil refinery for buying Iranian oil, along with 40 shipping firms and vessels alleged to be operating as part of Iran's shadow fleet.Bessent claimed these actions "have disrupted tens of billions of dollars in revenue" and helped to "rapidly" depreciate Iranian currency. On Wednesday, the Iranian rial dropped to a new record low against the US dollar, losing about 6 percent of its value since the war began. According to currency-tracking websites, the rial was trading at about 1.8 million rials against the dollar on the black market, compared to about 1.7 million rials when the war began at the end of February.The Impact Analysis: Geopolitical StandoffRob Geist Pinfold, a lecturer in international security at King's College London, told Al Jazeera that "we've gone past the stage ... for a physical war," but both Tehran and Trump were in a stage of "intense competition." He explained that both sides are "trying to signal to the other that they have more resilience, that time is on their side."Tehran's proposal is "deferring all of the difficult issues until later" by prioritizing the end of the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Pinfold noted this tactic "simply doesn't work for the Americans because they feel like if they give up on basically the leverage they have – the physical force leverage – the war could resume."The Prediction: Escalating Tensions and Human CostAs talks stall, Iranian authorities have stepped up efforts to prosecute protesters and dissidents. United Nations human rights chief Volker Turk reported that at least 21 people have been executed and more than 4,000 arrested since the start of the war on Iran. Nine executions were related to Iran's mass January protests, 10 for alleged membership in opposition groups, and two on espionage charges."I am appalled that – on top of the already severe impacts of the conflict – the rights of the Iranian people continue to be stripped from them by the authorities, in harsh and brutal ways," Turk stated. According to the UN, many of the 4,000 people arrested have disappeared, been tortured, or subjected to other forms of illegal punishment. With Iran's newly enhanced espionage law allowing authorities to execute and seize property of people accused of activities related to "hostile states and groups," the human cost of the standoff continues to rise.