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April passenger decline signals war‑induced travel slowdownHeathrow Airport reported that passenger traffic fell to 6.7 million in April, a 5 % year‑on‑year drop, as the conflict involving Iran dampened demand for international journeys.Thomas Woldbye, Heathrow’s chief executive, said travel demand “remains strong” and fuel supplies are “stable”, even as April numbers lag behind 2025.Geopolitical tension and fuel worries drive the dipThe airport attributed the fall to “short‑term adjustments to travel plans” linked to the Iran conflict and rising jet‑fuel costs after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.Transfer passengers increased 10 % year‑on‑year, as travellers rerouted to Asia and Oceania via Heathrow instead of Gulf hubs.Jet‑fuel prices averaged $181 per barrel in the week to 1 May, roughly double last year’s average.British Airways expects to absorb a €2 billion fuel‑cost hit this year.Financial ripple effects across UK aviationHigher fuel costs and reduced demand are prompting airlines to consider fare increases and to lobby for more flexible slot‑cancellation rules.Analysis by the Financial Times shows fare drops on 27 of the top 50 European routes to the Mediterranean between 9 April and 6 May.Heathrow plans to review its 2026 passenger forecast next month.Strategic outlook for Heathrow and airlinesIndustry observers expect Heathrow to lean on its hub advantage for transfer traffic while airlines may balance price cuts to stimulate bookings against the pressure of soaring fuel bills.Potential modest fare hikes later in summer as airlines seek to recoup fuel expenses.Continued competition with Gulf hubs if geopolitical tensions ease.What’s next for passenger traffic and fuel stability?Heathrow’s upcoming forecast revision will gauge whether the current dip is a short‑term blip or the start of a longer‑term shift in travel patterns. Stabilisation of fuel supplies in the Strait of Hormuz will be a key determinant of ticket pricing and airline profitability.

The UK aviation regulator, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), has partially rejected Heathrow Airport's plans to significantly raise its landing fees to fund a multibillion-pound upgrade. The CAA argues that Heathrow can still invest in upgrades without steep rises in ticket prices. The CAA has proposed that the average charge for each passenger should rise from £28.40 to £28.80 between 2027 and 2031, a 1% increase. This is £5.40, or 16%, lower than the changes proposed by Heathrow, but £5.80 or 25% higher than the changes wanted by the airlines. Heathrow had proposed a 17% increase to £33.26, which resulted in criticism from airlines who said it would lead to higher ticket prices for passengers. The CAA's proposal aims to strike a balance between keeping passenger prices fair and enabling the airport to make necessary investments. Selina Chadha, group director of consumer markets at the CAA, said: “Our primary duty is to protect consumers and at the heart of today’s proposals is doing the right thing for passengers using Heathrow airport, while supporting sustainable growth, investment, and efficiency.” The CAA has proposed that Heathrow spend between £5.4bn and £6.1bn on projects, including upgrading the airport's electrical system. Heathrow had been seeking approval to spend up to £10bn to handle an extra 10 million passengers a year by 2031. Thomas Woldbye, the chief executive of Heathrow airport, said: “We will now review the CAA’s initial proposal in detail to fully understand the implications for delivering the innovation, progress and improvements customers expect. On the face of it, the CAA’s proposal may force choices that create trade-offs for service and delay delivery.” The CAA will publish its final proposals in November, with a final decision expected in April 2027.