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Executive Summary: The Looming Gap in AMOC ObservationThe Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a planetary‑scale ocean current that regulates Europe’s climate. Recent policy decisions in the US and funding uncertainties in Europe jeopardise the only systematic monitoring program, raising the risk that a rapid AMOC weakening—or even collapse—could make climate change ten times faster than today.Policy Shifts Undermining Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation MonitoringUS budget proposals under the Trump administration aim to slash funding for NASA, NOAA and NSF, agencies that together provide roughly 50 % of the global AMOC monitoring budget. The latest "descoping" of the Ocean Observing Initiative threatens to discontinue key observing platforms. In Europe, the newly announced OceanEye programme has earmarked €50 m for ocean observations, but the initiative will not be operational before existing research vessels—still needed for current measurements—are fully financed.Financial Snapshot: €25 m Annual Cost vs. Funding CutsAnnual cost of the full AMOC monitoring network is about €25 m.EU’s OceanEye investment: €50 m for future capacity.US agencies contribute roughly half of the current monitoring budget; proposed cuts could remove that share.For context, Europe spends €1 bn on asteroid detection—an expense far larger than the modest AMOC budget.Why a Weakening or Collapse Would Accelerate Europe’s Climate CrisisModel projections show that a significant AMOC slowdown would reshape weather patterns, raise sea levels along European coasts, and increase the frequency of extreme storms. In a collapse scenario, climate change could progress up to 10 times faster than under current trajectories, threatening agriculture, infrastructure, health systems and migration patterns.Future Outlook: Building a Resilient International Funding ModelExperts Penny Holliday, Femke de Jong and Sjoerd Groeskamp call for an urgent, coordinated international funding strategy. By allocating as little as five cents per EU citizen per year, the continent could secure continuous, open‑access AMOC observations, providing the data needed to inform adaptation policies and avert the worst outcomes of a potential collapse.

Scientists warn that the Trump administration’s plan to dismantle the U.S. Ocean Observatories Initiative will severely degrade climate and weather forecasting, leaving the world effectively ‘flying blind’. Planned Dismantling of the Ocean Observatories Initiative The Ocean Observatories Initiative (OOI), operated by the U.S. National Science Foundation, is a network of seafloor sensors, underwater gliders and moored platforms that feeds real‑time data to researchers, policymakers and mariners worldwide. The system spans U.S. coastlines, the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean, supporting studies of marine heatwaves, harmful algal blooms, subduction‑zone earthquakes, ocean acidification and fisheries variability. Cost Savings vs Climate‑Related Economic Losses $368m – annual budget of the OOI slated for reduction. €92m ($107m) – EU’s new OceanEye initiative, with >50% earmarked for the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS). 163% increase in error for annual ocean‑heating rate estimates if U.S. observations are lost. More than 400 climate‑related disasters (≥$1bn each) in the U.S. from 1980‑2024; $177bn in damages in 2024 alone. How Losing U.S. Ocean Data Degrades Weather and Climate Forecasts Research published in Nature Climate Change shows that removing U.S. observations would be worse than randomly losing 80% of global ocean data. The resulting degradation would affect: Accuracy of El Niño and tropical‑cyclone forecasts. Early‑warning systems that “save lives” for storms and heatwaves. Agricultural planning across the United States and South America, where farmers rely on El Niño outlooks. Economic sectors such as insurance, disaster response and fisheries management. Future of Global Ocean Monitoring Without U.S. Contributions While the U.S. program faces a “descope,” the European Union is accelerating its own monitoring through the OceanEye program. Experts like Sabrina Speich (ENS, Paris) and John P Abraham (University of St Thomas) stress that international cooperation is essential; without U.S. data, the global observing system loses its “eyes and ears.” The outlook hinges on whether alternative funding can fill the critical gaps left by the OOI’s reduction.