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The Lead: Strategic Energy Route ExpansionThe United Arab Emirates is fast-tracking the construction of a new pipeline which will double the export capacity through Fujairah, a port city in the country's east, as Gulf nations seek to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed announced the acceleration of the West-East Pipeline project to "meet global demands", at an executive meeting held by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) on Friday.The Project Details: West-East Pipeline AccelerationThe pipeline should be operational by 2027, the government's Abu Dhabi Media Office said. Sheikh Zayed said ADNOC is "well positioned as a responsible and reliable global energy producer, with the operational flexibility to responsibly increase production to meet market needs when export constraints allow".The Current Infrastructure: Existing Energy RoutesCurrently, the UAE has the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP), a 380km (235-mile) pipeline which runs from Habshan, an oil and gas field in the south-western area of Abu Dhabi, to the port of Fujairah. The pipeline, which started working in 2012, has the capacity of about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bpd). It is one of the key energy routes in the Middle East.The Regional Context: Hormuz Bypass StrategyThe United States and Israel's war on Iran shook global energy supply chains across the world. With the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz – where previously around a fifth of the world's oil passed through – and Iran's new maritime protocol in the waterway, as well as attacks on energy infrastructure, Gulf nations have been forced to find alternative trade routes to maintain oil and gas exports.Saudi Arabia also has the East-West pipeline, designed to export the kingdom's oil, concentrated in the country's east, via the west coast, which has been less affected by the Iran war. Saudi's pipeline is 1,200km (745 miles) long, running from the Abqaia oil processing centre to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. State oil giant Aramco's Chief Executive Amin Nasser has called it a "critical lifeline" for the kingdom.Oman borders the Gulf of Oman with an extensive coastline outside the Strait of Hormuz, while Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, and Bahrain depend almost entirely on the waterway for their trade shipments.The Strategic Shift: UAE's Departure from OPECLast month, the UAE announced its departure from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in order to focus on "national interests". The UAE said this move was part of its "long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile".The Future Outlook: Redefining Gulf Energy StrategyAs regional tensions continue to disrupt traditional energy routes, Gulf nations are increasingly investing in alternative infrastructure to secure their export capabilities. The UAE's accelerated pipeline project represents a broader strategic shift toward diversifying energy export routes and reducing dependence on the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. This development is likely to prompt other Gulf states to further develop their own bypass infrastructure, potentially reshaping the regional energy landscape in the coming years.

During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's state visit to the United Arab Emirates on 15 May 2026, India and the UAE signed comprehensive pacts covering defence cooperation, energy security, and maritime shipping, signaling a deepening strategic partnership as Iran‑UAE tensions flare.The Defence, Energy, and Shipping Pacts Signed in Abu DhabiDefence: Joint industrial collaboration, advanced‑technology training, maritime security, cyber defence, and secure communications.Energy: Agreement on strategic petroleum reserves, potential crude‑oil storage in Fujairah, and supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG).Shipping: Framework for enhanced maritime logistics and information exchange.Signed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during a meeting in Abu Dhabi.Financial Commitments and Strategic Reserves: The NumbersThe UAE pledged up to $5 billion to deepen economic ties with India.India’s strategic petroleum reserve could include crude storage in Fujairah, bolstering energy security.Approximately 4.3 million Indians live or work in the UAE, underscoring the human dimension of the partnership.India imports 90 % of its oil, with half transiting the Strait of Hormuz; recent fuel price hikes rose by 3 % due to regional instability.Regional Geopolitical Impact: Counterbalancing Iran’s AggressionThe agreements arrive after Iran targeted the UAE’s eastern coast, igniting a refinery fire in Fujairah and injuring Indian workers. By formalising defence and energy cooperation, India and the UAE aim to present a united front that deters further Iranian provocations and secures critical supply routes.Outlook: Anticipated Trajectory of Indo‑UAE CollaborationAnalysts expect the pacts to evolve into joint exercises, co‑development of maritime surveillance assets, and expanded LNG trade. Continued investment could also spur Indian participation in UAE’s emerging renewable‑energy projects, while the strategic reserve arrangement may serve as a model for other Gulf‑South Asian partnerships.

United Arab Emirates announced a fast‑track plan for a second oil pipeline that will route crude around the Strait of Hormuz, targeting first oil flow by 2027. The move follows the UAE’s recent departure from OPEC and aims to safeguard export volumes amid ongoing regional tensions. Fast‑Tracking a New Bypass Pipeline to Fujairah Directed by Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the state oil company will accelerate construction of a previously undisclosed line that will carry oil from the interior to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman. The project is designed to operate alongside the existing Habshan‑Fujairah corridor. Doubling Export Capacity: Numbers and Projections Existing Habshan‑Fujairah pipeline: up to 1.8 million barrels per day New pipeline expected to double capacity, potentially reaching 3.6 million barrels per day Current Strait of Hormuz blockage has halted roughly 20 % of global oil and seaborne gas UAE is the third‑largest OPEC producer, poised to exceed future OPEC quotas once the new line is online Strategic Implications for Gulf Oil Markets and OPEC Relations The bypass reduces reliance on the narrow waterway that Iran can disrupt, giving the UAE a strategic edge over rivals that still depend on Hormuz. It also highlights the growing rift between Abu Dhabi and Saudi Arabia, whose production‑quota‑driven strategy contrasts with the UAE’s push for higher export volumes after leaving OPEC. Future Outlook: UAE Oil Strategy After the Pipeline Completion With the pipeline slated for completion by 2027, the UAE can sustain or increase crude shipments even if the Hormuz conflict persists, positioning itself closer to Saudi export levels of roughly 7 million barrels per day. Analysts expect the enhanced capacity to attract long‑term contracts and reinforce the UAE’s role as a reliable oil supplier in a volatile region.

The Lead United States Vice President JD Vance has said he believes progress is being made in negotiations with Iran, despite President Donald Trump rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal as unacceptable. The comments come as diplomatic efforts continue to prevent a collapse in the fragile ceasefire between Washington and Tehran. Iran's Military Readiness Brigadier-General Mohammad Akrami Nia says Iran’s military remains at “the highest level of readiness”, warning that “there is no room for retreat” as tensions with the US persist. Iranian officials have continued to signal they are prepared to respond to any escalation. Netanyahu's Secret Visit to UAE Separately, Israel says Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a “secret” visit to the United Arab Emirates during the war on Iran, where he met the UAE president, according to the Israeli prime minister’s office. The UAE has denied that the trip happened. Iran's Warnings and World Cup Send-off Iran warns states ‘colluding’ with Israel: Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said countries working with Israel against Tehran will be “held to account”, after Israel revealed Netanyahu visited the UAE during the war. Iran gives World Cup send-off to national team: Crowds gathered in Tehran’s Enghelab Square to celebrate Iran’s national football team ahead of the 2026 World Cup, waving flags as players appeared on stage in red and black tracksuits. War Diplomacy and US-China Relations Vance says US is ‘making progress’ in talks: The US vice president says he believes progress is being made in negotiations with Iran. China may seek concessions over Iran role: Analysts say China could demand concessions from the US, potentially on Taiwan, in exchange for using its influence to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Developments in the Gulf and US Netanyahu’s UAE visit: The Israeli Prime Minister held a “secret” meeting with the UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, his office said. UAE denies Netanyahu visit claims: The UAE has rejected statements from Netanyahu’s office. Senate backs Trump: US senators narrowly rejected a resolution curbing President Trump’s power to wage war on Iran. Escalation in Lebanon Israel-Lebanon talks: Officials from Lebanon and Israel will convene in Washington, DC, later on Thursday for a new round of peace negotiations. Lebanon says 10,000 homes hit: More than 10,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed in Lebanon since a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hezbollah. At least 12 killed in Lebanon: Israel intensified strikes on Lebanon with the Ministry of Public Health reporting 12 people were killed in attacks on Wednesday.

Executive Summary of the Secret Diplomatic EncounterIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu undertook a covert visit to the United Arab Emirates, meeting President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan while the United States and Israel are engaged in a war against Iran. The office described the trip as a "historic breakthrough" in Israel‑UAE relations, though the exact date remains undisclosed.Details of the Confidential Meeting and Its ContextThe meeting took place against a backdrop of escalating security cooperation:UAE’s state news agency WAM reported that Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed received calls from regional leaders after Iranian missile and drone attacks on May 5.U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee confirmed that Israel has deployed Iron Dome batteries and personnel to the UAE to help counter potential Iranian strikes.The visit follows a series of diplomatic gestures since the signing of the Abraham Accords in September 2020.Key Chronology and Figures Highlighting the ShiftSeptember 15, 2020: Abraham Accords signed in Washington, D.C., normalising Israel‑UAE ties.May 5, 2026: Iranian missile and drone attacks on the UAE.April 8, 2026: Fragile cease‑fire between Iran and the United States takes effect.May 13, 2026: Netanyahu’s secret visit announced via the Israeli Prime Minister’s office.Strategic Implications for Gulf Security and Regional PoliticsThe clandestine trip signals a deepening of security collaboration, potentially reshaping the balance of power in the Gulf:Enhanced Israeli‑UAE coordination may deter further Iranian aggression.The move could accelerate similar security pacts with other Gulf states, reinforcing a broader anti‑Iran coalition.Palestinian leadership, which condemned the original Abraham Accords, may face increased diplomatic isolation.Outlook: How This Breakthrough Could Influence Future AlliancesAnalysts anticipate that the secret visit will catalyse a series of developments:More joint military exercises and intelligence sharing between Israel and the UAE.Potential expansion of the Abraham Accords framework to include additional security clauses.Increased pressure on Iran to negotiate a lasting de‑escalation, given the unified front of U.S., Israeli, and Gulf forces.

The Surge in Oil Prices Oil prices soared more than 6 percent on worries about prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and fears of a lengthy US siege of Iranian ports, settling at their highest levels in weeks. Market Reaction and Price Increases US crude settled up 6.95 percent at $106.88 per barrel on Wednesday, and Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 6.08 percent, or $6.77, at $118.03 after earlier touching its highest price since June 2022. Brent crude futures for June continued to rise on Thursday to $119.94 per barrel as of 00:57 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate futures were at $107.51. The Impact of the US-Iran Conflict Oil prices continue to surge with no resolution in sight to the two-month-long US-Israel war on Iran, and as supplies of fuel remain snarled in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces have imposed a blockade on the transit of vessels and the US is besieging Iranian ports and shipping. US Response and Potential Mitigation Measures A White House official said on Wednesday that US President Donald Trump had asked US oil companies about ways to mitigate the impact of a potentially months-long siege of Iranian ports. The president and the oil executives “discussed the steps President Trump has taken to ⁠alleviate global oil markets and steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimize impact on American consumers,” the White House official said. Regional Impact and Economic Concerns “Prospects for any near-term resolution to the Iran conflict or a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain dim,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note on the current situation. Al Jazeera’s Barnaby Lo, reporting from Seoul, South Korea, said almost the entire Asia Pacific region is dependent on oil imports and much of those supplies come from the Middle East. “So with the price of Brent crude touching $120 a barrel, there is no doubt that is going to have a huge impact on the region. The Asian Development Bank already cutting its growth forecast for the region from 5.1 percent to 4.7 percent this year,” Lo said. UAE's OPEC Exit and Market Implications President Trump on Wednesday also welcomed the announced withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), saying, “I think it’s great”. The UAE’s President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan was “very smart” and probably wanted to go his “own way”, Trump said. “I think ultimately it’s a good thing for getting the price of gas down, getting oil down, getting everything down,” Trump added.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, calling for closer and stronger strategic coordination between Beijing and Moscow. The meeting took place in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where Xi emphasized the need to firmly defend their legitimate interests and safeguard the unity of Global South countries.Xi described the stability and certainty of China-Russia relations as particularly precious in an international landscape marked by change and chaos. This comes as the world faces growing fears over the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a global food crisis as critical fertiliser and fuel exports are blocked.Lavrov told a news conference after meeting Xi that Moscow could compensate for China’s energy shortages as shipping through the strait remains choked. China and Russia are not formal military allies but maintain extremely close economic and political ties, with Xi signing a 'no limits' strategic partnership with President Vladimir Putin in 2022.The visit by Lavrov to Beijing this week also included meetings with other leaders, such as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Vietnamese leader To Lam. In talks with Sanchez, Xi warned that the world was facing 'chaos and turmoil' and 'a contest between justice and force', urging closer cooperation.

President Donald Trump told allies that Tehran does not need to negotiate a settlement for the hostilities to cease, estimating the conflict could be over in two to three weeks. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, however, dismissed any hope of talks, stating that Tehran has zero trust in Washington.US‑Israeli air raids persist across Iran, hitting key industrial and civilian targets such as steel factories in Isfahan and Farokhshahr, pharmaceutical facilities, port infrastructure, meteorological stations and a residential complex. Iranian state media and the Red Crescent reported explosions in cities including Ahvaz, Shiraz, Isfahan, Karaj, Kermanshah and Bandar Abbas.An Iranian official said the Tofigh Daru pharmaceutical raw‑material plant in Tehran was struck, crippling its research and development wing and delivering a "blow to the national medical supply chain." In Bandar Abbas, the Shahid Haqqani passenger pier was bombed, though officials claimed no casualties.A desalination plant on Qeshm Island, crucial for water supply in the Strait of Hormuz, was knocked out of service by the strikes.Analyst Trita Parsi warned that the war is unlikely to end swiftly and that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, noting that it will not be easy for President Trump to simply walk away from the conflict.Casualties have surpassed 2,000 Iranians, with numerous civilian sites—including hospitals, schools, universities and pharmaceutical factories—targeted, raising concerns of potential war‑crime violations.On the diplomatic front, Spain, France and Italy have begun curbing U.S. military operations by closing airspace, denying base access and limiting logistical support. Meanwhile, China and Pakistan have tabled a five‑point cease‑fire proposal that calls for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.Regional leaders are also active: Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan have convened to discuss the Iran war, while Argentina, under President Javier Milei, officially labeled Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a “terrorist” organization.Pope Francis (Leo XIV) appealed directly to President Trump, urging an end to the violence and expressing hope that the U.S. leader is moving toward a resolution.In the Gulf, Iranian drones have repeatedly struck Kuwait’s airport, forcing the closure of its airspace since late February; Saudi Arabia has stepped in to provide transport for affected passengers. Bahrain sounded air‑raid sirens, and Saudi forces reported intercepting two additional drones.A merchant vessel north of Doha suffered damage from an "unknown projectile," though the crew remained unharmed and no environmental harm was recorded.U.S. officials remain divided: while Trump predicts a rapid end, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned that the United States is "negotiating with bombs" and that the coming days are decisive. The war’s uncertainty has pushed oil prices higher, prompting U.S. Senator Chris Coons to warn that American families face rising grocery, utility and mortgage costs.Israel continues to face coordinated attacks from Iran and Hezbollah, with missile and drone incursions reported across northern and central regions. Despite these threats, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Iran’s regional allies no longer pose an "existential threat," yet Israel plans to maintain its offensive, including operations in Lebanon.In Lebanon, Israeli ground advances and heavy bombardments have resulted in over 1,200 deaths and displaced roughly 1.2 million people since early March. Iraqi militia Kata’ib Sayyid al‑Shuhada warned that any U.S. ground incursion into Iran via Kuwait could trigger an all‑out war.