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The Rise of Itamar Ben-Gvir In recent weeks, Israel's National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir has shown the world a version of 'modern Israel' it had preferred not to see. From telling the press that he would 'not allow' a United States ceasefire deal with Iran that was bad for Israel to his televised harassment of bound activists of the Global Sumud Flotilla, Ben-Gvir's actions have drawn outrage on a global stage. Ben-Gvir's Controversial Background Ben-Gvir was hardly an unknown quantity when he entered government in 2022. His first brush with national prominence came in 1995, after Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin agreed to the Oslo Accords, a series of agreements with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO), which the world hoped was a path towards a two-state solution. Ben-Gvir was 19 years old when he was filmed brandishing the Cadillac hood ornament from Rabin's car, declaring to the cameras: 'We got to his car, we'll get to him, too.' Rabin was assassinated just weeks later by right-wing extremist and ultranationalist Yigal Amir. The Impact of Ben-Gvir's Actions Ben-Gvir has been accused by analysts and activists of moulding the Israeli police force in his own far-right image. He has boasted on social media of worsening the already harrowing conditions of Palestinian detainees, many held without charge, while defending the rape and forced starvation of others. The Future of Israeli Politics Despite the international blowback, Ben-Gvir's base appears to be holding firm, even as the star of his more sober counterpart on the extreme right, Bezalel Smotrich, appears to be fading. Israeli pollster Dahlia Scheindlin pointed out that, in reality, Ben-Gvir's policy positions were rarely more extreme than many in the governing Likud party.

The Resurrection of the 'Change' BlocFormer Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have announced a strategic reunion in Herzliya, aiming to dismantle Benjamin Netanyahu's government and end his 12-year hold on power. The two leaders unveiled the new 'Together' party, promising a 'great victory' and a 'new era' for Israel. This move marks a significant political maneuver, seeking to consolidate the fragmented opposition into a unified front capable of challenging the incumbent leader.Historical Context: Bennett and Lapid previously formed a coalition in 2021 that toppled Netanyahu, marking the first time in Israeli history that Netanyahu was removed from office.Coalition Structure: The new alliance represents a shift from their previous broad coalition, which included left-wing and Arab parties, to a more restrictive 'Zionist' bloc.Leadership: Bennett is set to lead the new party, signaling a strategic pivot to consolidate nationalist credentials.Polling Headwinds and Strategic ShiftsDespite the high-profile announcement, the new alliance faces significant hurdles in the upcoming elections. Polling data suggests that the combined strength of Bennett and Lapid may be waning, potentially falling short of Netanyahu's Likud Party. To compensate for this decline, the bloc is pivoting away from the inclusivity of 2021, explicitly excluding Arab parties and focusing on a hardline nationalist platform.Electoral Projections: The Jerusalem Post poll indicates the new bloc could win four fewer seats than the sum of their previous parties and one seat fewer than Likud.Strategic Pivot: By excluding Arab parties, the alliance risks alienating a significant portion of the electorate while attempting to appeal to a more conservative base.Historical Performance: The previous 'change government' managed to pass a budget and stabilize governance but ultimately collapsed in 2022 due to infighting and defections.A Hardline Stance on PalestiniansAnalysts warn that the Bennett-Lapid alliance offers little prospect for improvement regarding the Palestinian situation. Both leaders have historically advocated for hawkish policies, with Bennett explicitly opposing a Palestinian state and previously authorizing a 'shoot-to-kill' policy against Palestinians attempting to cross borders. The exclusion of Arab parties from the new coalition further delegitimizes the Palestinian vote and signals a continuation of policies that analysts argue exacerbate the conflict.Policy Consistency: Both leaders have been consistent supporters of Israel's military actions in Gaza, with Bennett writing that he will not 'give up our land' and Lapid offering only lip service to a two-state solution.Human Rights Concerns: The alliance's stance on Palestinian citizens of Israel (20% of the population) has shifted from inclusion to exclusion, reinforcing a narrative of racism and delegitimization.Netanyahu's Resilience and the Long GameDespite the challenges facing the opposition, political analysts believe Netanyahu remains a formidable figure. His resilience is attributed to his ability to weather continuous controversies, including corruption charges and the fallout from the October 7 attacks. While his popularity has dipped, the current geopolitical climate—marked by war and national security concerns—favors incumbents and may overshadow his legal troubles.Analyst Insight: Political analyst Nimrod Flashenberg suggests that this alliance is merely the 'semifinal' of the anti-Netanyahu bloc and that Netanyahu is 'down, not out.'Corruption Trials: Netanyahu's desperate bid to remain in power is driven by the need to avoid prosecution, a factor that has galvanized his base despite public dissatisfaction.Future Outlook: The political landscape remains fluid, with analysts waiting to see if other potential leaders, such as Gadi Eisenkot, will join the anti-Netanyahu camp.