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The Core Dispute Over Miliband’s Net‑Zero StanceMore than 40 progressive economists have written to Sharon Graham, leader of Unite, rejecting her assertion that Ed Miliband would “destroy jobs” if he becomes the next chancellor. The letter comes as Labour prepares for a Treasury reshuffle amid speculation that Miliband is a frontrunner.Economists’ Open Letter Counters Unite’s Oil Licence PushThe signatories – including Kate Pickett, Danny Dorling, Daniela Gabor and James Meadway – argue that the climate transition is a major source of industrial employment. They urge Graham to withdraw her remarks, emphasizing that the green economy, not additional North Sea oil licences, will drive future job growth.Economic Numbers Behind the Green TransitionThe net‑zero economy generates output worth over £100 bn.It currently employs more than 1 million workers in the UK.Growth in the sector is expected to expand both output and employment further.Implications for Labour’s Treasury Choice and Market SentimentThe intervention reflects anxiety among some Labour MPs that appointing Miliband could spook financial markets. With Andy Burnham poised to become prime minister and the Treasury vacancy open, the debate pits a green‑focused chancellor against concerns over jobs, skills and national security.Looking Ahead: Labour Leadership and Fiscal DirectionBurnham’s expected leadership on 17 July, backed by figures such as Wes Streeting, will shape the Treasury appointment. If Miliband is chosen, Labour may double‑down on renationalisation and green investment; if another candidate prevails, the party could adopt a more cautious fiscal stance to reassure markets.

The UK's Commitment to Net Zero Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, is expected to emphasize the UK's commitment to net zero targets as a means to deliver jobs and growth. In a speech at London Climate Action Week, Miliband will highlight that the UK's clean economy is booming, with over £100bn of private investment announced in clean energy since the government came to office. Green Investment Surge The investment data, which includes nearly £14bn in Scotland alone, shows that offshore wind, solar power, and the electricity grid make up the bulk of the planned investment. Companies such as Japan's Sumitomo conglomerate, National Grid, Barclays, NatWest, and Lloyds banks have pledged significant investments, including £7.5bn and £40bn respectively. The Economic Benefits of Net Zero Experts argue that the push for net zero is not a drag on the economy, but rather a growth engine. The Confederation of British Industry has found that the UK's net zero economy has grown faster than the rest of the economy and generates higher-paying jobs. Economic experts believe that renewable energy and electrification can bring down energy prices, remove the threat of damaging energy shocks, and drive strong growth in the economy. The Future of Net Zero Commitments The future of the government's net zero commitments is likely to be hotly contested. While some of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's core advisers have been cool on the policies, Miliband's speech is seen as an attempt to reaffirm the government's commitment to net zero. The speech comes as speculation surrounds Miliband's potential role as chancellor under a new prime minister. The Path Forward Experts, including Bob Ward from the Grantham Research Institute and Ed Matthew from E3G, emphasize the importance of green investment in driving economic growth and reducing the UK's reliance on expensive fossil fuels. They argue that the next prime minister must recognize the power of green investment and create an environment to foster it.

The Jimblebar Beneficiation Project: A Missed Opportunity for DecarbonizationBHP has quietly abandoned plans for a major iron ore processing facility near its Jimblebar open-cut mine in the Pilbara. The project, which was well advanced in 2025, aimed to improve the purity of iron ore to meet global demand, particularly from China. Despite being internally rated as having "excellent social value" and being "well-aligned" to shareholder-endorsed climate plans, the mining giant decided to cancel all further work on the plant.The Economic Trade-off: Marginal Returns vs. Climate GoalsThe decision to scrap the Jimblebar plant was driven by a strict assessment of marginal economics. BHP determined that the project would struggle to compete for capital against other potential investments. This cancellation is part of a broader pattern where the company is either shelving or delaying major projects designed to reduce emissions, including a 50-megawatt solar and 20MW battery project that had board approval.Capital Allocation: The miner is prioritizing projects with higher immediate returns over those that offer long-term environmental benefits.Fleet Strategy: Despite pledging to electrify its fleet, BHP has continued purchasing polluting diesel trucks for Pilbara operations.Quantifying the Impact: Scope-Three Emissions and Market PremiumsThe Jimblebar facility was not just a logistical upgrade; it was a strategic tool for decarbonization. By providing higher quality iron ore, the plant would have allowed steelmakers to reduce their emissions intensity, which is one of the cheapest methods for the industry to cut carbon output.The economic and environmental stakes were significant:Emission Reduction: The project was estimated to reduce scope-three emissions by 1.7m tonnes a year.Comparative Impact: This reduction is equivalent to taking more than 350,000 cars off the road, representing about three-quarters of the entire annual emissions from BHP’s Western Australian iron ore division.Market Premium: Higher quality ore allows BHP to charge customers a premium, creating a potential win-win scenario that was ultimately deemed too marginal.Broader Implications for Australia's Safeguard MechanismThe leaked documents, dubbed the "BHP files," raise serious questions about the efficacy of Australia’s Safeguard Mechanism. This federal policy requires the country's largest polluting industrial facilities to cut greenhouse gas emissions intensity year on year. BHP's decision to delay or cancel green investments suggests that the current policy framework may not be strong enough to compel major miners to prioritize decarbonization over short-term profitability.Future Outlook: The "Net Zero" DilemmaBHP's recent actions indicate a potential shift in its timeline for achieving net-zero goals. By war-gaming options to significantly delay major investments, the company is signaling that its 2050 emissions target may be more aspirational than operational in the near term. Investors and climate advocates will be closely watching whether BHP can reconcile its climate commitments with its capital allocation strategy as global pressure mounts.

The LeadA friend of mine was recently left in tears after filling up the car she relies on to drive to work. Thanks to the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, prices at the pumps have soared. She wasn't sure how her family was going to make it to the next paycheck.It is a personal story and a distressing one, but the big picture is truly obscene. Fossil fuel companies are raking in monstrous, unearned war profits taken from the pockets of people like you, me, my friend, and any of us who fills up a vehicle or pays an energy bill.The War-Profits Bonanza$30m an hour: that's the pure, unearned profits banked by the world's top 100 oil and gas companies in the first month of the conflict in Iran, purely due to the spike in the oil price. Now the first numbers are in, and that $30m may have been a major underestimate.Shell's profit for the first three months of 2026 more than doubled to $6.9bn, as did BP's, to $3.2bn. TotalEnergies profits also surged by more than 50%, up to $5.8bn. Even in the Gulf itself, where the flow of oil through the strait of Hormuz has been heavily restricted, some companies have still flourished. Aramco, the state oil company of Saudi Arabia, saw its profits soar by 26% to $33.6bn in the first quarter.The Financial Impact on ConsumersThose four companies alone, benefiting not just from the oil price hike but also bumper oil-trading profits, made $23m an hour for the whole of January, February and March. And the Iran conflict only started on 28 February.To get some idea of the scale of this, imagine I gave you $6,200. What would you do? Pay off a loan? Book a fancy holiday? A second later, I give you another $6,200; then again, for hours, weeks and months. That is the rate of profit of just those four companies.There is plenty more to come for the industry. Oil and gas supplies will take months to return to prewar levels, and reserves are getting dangerously low. Even if the oil price remains at today's level of about $100 a barrel, those 100 companies will make $234bn by the end of the year. Remember, the companies, and petrostates such as Russia, have done no extra work for this, just ridden a soaring oil price. Also remember, you are paying for this. Where I live in the UK, household energy bills are about to jump by £209 ($280) a year for the average home.The Industry's Climate ObstructionThe profits are extreme, but not new: big oil and gas has been wildly profitable for decades. It has made an average $1tn a year in pure profit for about 50 years. The fossil fuel sector also benefits from explicit subsidies that totalled $1.3tn in 2022, according to the International Monetary Fund.These riches have funded the lobbying and campaigns that block climate action and have done so for years, long after the science became crystal clear. As an example of the consequences, the UK's official climate advisers said on Tuesday that all care homes and hospitals will need air conditioning within the coming 10 years, to stop the heat killing people.The Green Transition AccelerationBut here's that silver lining I promised: these peak profits contain the seeds of their own downfall. Sky-high fossil fuel prices are pushing people, companies and nations to supercharge their rush towards green power for the simple reason that it is now cheaper and more reliable. Solar power does not need to transit through the strait of Hormuz, as Bill McKibben has observed.The numbers on the surge in renewable energy deployment, already exponential, are not yet in, but they will almost certainly be huge. Green funds are already attracting billions of dollars in new investments and one consultancy estimates that an oil price of $100 a barrel will drive $4tn of extra green investment by 2030.Big oil remains a formidable political force but, on the ground, people are already voting with their feet. Sales of new electric cars in the UK leapt by 59% in April, for example. The pain and anger of today's energy crisis may yet become a critical turning point in confronting the climate crisis.