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UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper warned that unless fertiliser shipments blocked by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz are freed within weeks, the world could face a severe food crisis as planting seasons slip and prices soar. Iran’s Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Threatens Global Harvests The ongoing war involving Iran has frozen fertiliser flows through the strategic strait, already harming farms in the UK, Europe and the United States and hitting the developing world hardest, where farmers cannot absorb higher input costs. Scale of the Potential Food Insecurity Spike 45 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict persists past mid‑year, according to the World Food Programme. UK overseas aid has fallen to 0.3 % of GNI, down from 0.5 % under the previous government. Climate finance for developing nations has been cut to £2 bn per year for the next three years. At the Global Partnerships conference, the UK will announce £4.6 bn for climate investment in emerging markets, $250 m for the African Development Bank, and a £200 m boost for science and technology. Implications for Food Prices, Aid Policies, and National Security The fertiliser shortage is driving up global food prices, compounding inflationary pressures on households. Reduced aid budgets in the UK and the dismantling of the US USAID agency risk deepening instability, while UK intelligence warns that ecosystem collapse in vulnerable regions could threaten national security. What the Next Six Months Could Hold for Global Food Stability Cooper called for coordinated diplomatic pressure to reopen the strait, accelerate private‑sector partnerships, and restore aid levels. If governments act quickly, fertiliser supplies could be restored before the critical planting window, limiting the projected surge in hunger. Failure to do so may lock in higher food prices and expand acute food insecurity well beyond 2026.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, calling for closer and stronger strategic coordination between Beijing and Moscow. The meeting took place in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where Xi emphasized the need to firmly defend their legitimate interests and safeguard the unity of Global South countries.Xi described the stability and certainty of China-Russia relations as particularly precious in an international landscape marked by change and chaos. This comes as the world faces growing fears over the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which could trigger a global food crisis as critical fertiliser and fuel exports are blocked.Lavrov told a news conference after meeting Xi that Moscow could compensate for China’s energy shortages as shipping through the strait remains choked. China and Russia are not formal military allies but maintain extremely close economic and political ties, with Xi signing a 'no limits' strategic partnership with President Vladimir Putin in 2022.The visit by Lavrov to Beijing this week also included meetings with other leaders, such as Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and Vietnamese leader To Lam. In talks with Sanchez, Xi warned that the world was facing 'chaos and turmoil' and 'a contest between justice and force', urging closer cooperation.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a stark warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked by the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, the world could face a food ‘catastrophe’. The disruption is already halting shipments of vital agricultural inputs, a situation that could quickly cascade into higher food prices. FAO chief economist Maximo Torero told Al Jazeera that, for now, food prices have stayed stable because existing stockpiles are absorbing the shock. However, he cautioned that this buffer is temporary and that “the clock is ticking.” FAO agrifood economics director David Laborde added that if traffic does not resume, the resulting strain on energy and fertilizer markets will translate into “higher commodity and retail prices later this year and into 2027.” According to the FAO, 20‑45% of key agrifood inputs—including fertilizers, pesticides and feed—depend on maritime passage through the Hormuz chokepoint. Nearly half of the world’s traded urea, the most widely used fertilizer, also moves through the strait, making global agriculture highly vulnerable. Recent gas supply disruptions have already forced fertilizer plants in the Gulf and beyond to cut or halt production, raising concerns that farmers may have to reduce fertilizer use or face higher production costs. Torero emphasized that poorer countries are especially at risk because planting calendars leave little room for delays; a slowdown in input delivery could quickly lead to “lower output, higher inflation and slower global growth.” The blockade stems from Iran’s decision to bring traffic to a near‑total halt in retaliation for attacks by the United States and Israel, which launched a war on Tehran on 28 February, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The conflict has already doubled oil and gas prices compared with pre‑war levels. Negotiations between Iranian and US representatives over a 21‑hour marathon failed to secure a permanent ceasefire. Subsequently, US President Donald Trump announced a naval blockade, stating that the navy would interdict ships in international waters that had paid Iran a toll to traverse the strait. The US military later declared it would block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports, including those in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. FAO officials stress that decisive action—both a sustained ceasefire and the reopening of the waterway—is essential to prevent the looming food crisis from becoming a full‑blown catastrophe.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about a potential global food crisis due to its impact on fertiliser supplies. The strait is a critical passage for 20% of global natural gas shipments and a third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser.The head of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, has warned that the situation is a 'food security timebomb', with the window to avert a massive global hunger crisis rapidly closing.Fertiliser prices have already risen by more than 60% in Egypt, reaching $780 (£586) a tonne, up from about $484 in late February. The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world's largest single site for urea exports, has been offline for almost a month.The Middle East is the source of about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a key raw material for fertiliser manufacture. Iran is the fourth-largest global exporter of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser.A prolonged transport shutdown could disrupt production and increase costs, leading to higher food prices and exacerbating global hunger. The world's poorest countries are among the most vulnerable to fertiliser price rises.

The conflict in Iran has sparked concerns about a potential global food crisis due to a looming shortage of fertiliser, a crucial component in food production. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, has been disrupted, impacting the export of fertilisers from Gulf countries.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the Strait of Hormuz was 'closed', causing oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel. However, experts warn that a parallel crisis is emerging - a considerable threat to global food security due to a shortage of fertiliser.Nearly half of the world's traded urea, the most widely used fertiliser, and large volumes of other fertilisers are exported from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions to gas supplies and shipping have already forced fertiliser plants in the Gulf and beyond to shut or cut their output.Countries such as India, Brazil, and China are heavily dependent on Gulf fertiliser exports, with India sourcing over 40% of its urea and phosphate fertilisers from the region. A prolonged fertiliser shortage and hike in fertiliser prices could lead to reduced crop yields, affecting food security worldwide.The urea export prices from the Middle East have surged by about 40%, rising from just less than $500 to a little more than $700 per metric tonne. The price is currently close to 60% higher than this time last year.According to one shipping services company, 20% of the world's fertiliser originates in the Gulf, while 46% of global urea supply comes from the Gulf. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world's largest urea supplier, alone supplies 14% of the world's urea.Analysis by Kpler, a data and analytics company, shows that as much as one-third of global fertiliser trade could be disrupted if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists. This could lead to nitrogen fertiliser prices doubling and phosphate prices climbing by about 50%.