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The Lead: Trump's Asset Freeze StanceUnited States President Donald Trump has made it clear that he will not unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian assets prior to reaching a lasting ceasefire agreement to formally end the US-Israel war with Iran. This statement, made during an interview on NBC's Meet the Press, indicates little room for compromise in the ongoing diplomatic standoff between the nations.The Event Details: Trump's Conditions for NegotiationIn the interview that aired on Sunday, Trump emphasized that any unfreezing of Iranian assets "comes after" a deal is reached. "If they behave, if they do a good job, we start talking," he stated. The US president has for weeks suggested that a breakthrough in the ceasefire talks was within reach, though there has been little sign of major shifts on key issues.Trump also revealed he would be willing to speak with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who succeeded his father after Ali Khamenei was killed in US strikes early in the conflict. When asked about Khamenei's whereabouts, Trump said, "I don't want to say whether or not I know where he is, but there's a good probability that I do."The Data Analysis: Billions at Stake in Frozen AssetsIran is believed to have more than $100 billion frozen in bank accounts across the world due to sanctions by the US and other countries. Iranian state media has reported that Iran is now seeking between $12 billion and $24 billion in frozen funds as part of a ceasefire deal. Tehran is pushing for a plan that would see half of the funds released upon signing an agreement and the remaining half at a later stage.These frozen assets were meant to be gradually released under the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which saw Tehran curtail its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump unilaterally withdrew from that agreement in 2018.The Impact Analysis: Regional Tensions and Trust DeficitThe announcement comes amid continued diplomatic tensions between the US and Iran. Iranian officials have repeatedly indicated that any deal could be contingent on the at least partial unfreezing of Tehran's frozen funds, citing widespread mistrust of US negotiations. This mistrust stems from the fact that the US twice launched military operations against Iran amid ongoing talks on its nuclear program.Israel's ongoing attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon – strikes to which Iran objects – have continually threatened to derail negotiations. Trump clarified that he was "not demanding" that Lebanon be part of a ceasefire deal, though Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned on Sunday that Iran could retaliate in response to Israeli strikes on southern Beirut and the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports.The Prediction: Deadlock or Breakthrough?While Trump has repeatedly suggested that a deal is imminent, Iranian officials present a different picture. Mohsen Rezaee, a military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, told CNN on Saturday that "negotiations are at a deadlock" and called on Trump to break the impasse. Trump's mixed approach of diplomacy and threats – stating "We're very close to a deal, or I'm going to blow the hell out of them" – reflects the delicate balance of power in these negotiations.With fighting largely paused since April 8, though both sides periodically exchanging strikes, the coming weeks will be critical in determining whether the US and Iran can overcome their differences and reach a ceasefire agreement that addresses both security concerns and economic realities.

Lead: The United States Central Command reported shooting down a pair of Iranian drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz, a move that coincided with Tehran firing missiles at Bahrain and Kuwait and a flurry of diplomatic activity involving Pakistan’s interior minister. The latest exchanges underscore a volatile cease‑fire that was only agreed on April 8, while humanitarian and economic pressures mount across the Gulf. Escalation at the Strait of Hormuz: US Forces Down Two Iranian Drones The US military confirmed that two Iranian drones were intercepted and destroyed after they "threatened international maritime traffic" in the strategic waterway. Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the action as a "flagrant" violation and accused Washington of "hostile and provocative behaviour". Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi arrived in Tehran on a diplomatic mission, carrying a "special letter" from Pakistan’s army chief and prime minister, according to ISNA. Missile Barrage Targets Bahrain and Kuwait Amid Fragile Ceasefire In retaliation, Iran launched a salvo of missiles aimed at US allies Bahrain and Kuwait, drawing condemnation from Gulf states. The attacks come as the cease‑fire, brokered on April 8, shows signs of unraveling under continued tit‑for‑tat threats. Financial Levers: $24 billion Frozen Assets and Asset‑Redirect Plans A US source told Reuters that Washington plans to redirect Iranian assets to Gulf states for reconstruction and repair of damage caused by Iran. Mohsen Rezaei, adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, told CNN that a peace deal hinges on the release of $24 billion in Iranian assets frozen by the US. The US also denied visas to 15 members of Iran’s World Cup delegation, citing security concerns. Regional Ripple Effects: Casualties in Lebanon and Gaza Two Lebanese army officers and a soldier were killed in an Israeli strike on a military vehicle in south Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed to have hit an Israeli command headquarters in Naqoura with Ababil drones. In Gaza, the death toll rose to 10 after a drone attack killed a man and his son in Gaza City. What the Next Hundred Days May Hold for the Gulf Flashpoint Analysts warn that the combination of military skirmishes, asset‑freeze negotiations and diplomatic overtures could either push the parties toward a negotiated settlement or trigger further escalation. Pakistan’s involvement may open a back‑channel for de‑escalation, but the parallel conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza add layers of complexity. Continued disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz would threaten global oil and gas shipments, pressuring international markets to seek alternative routing.

On June 5‑6, 2026, U.S. forces intercepted a wave of Iranian ballistic missiles and attack drones aimed at the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf states, even as Israel pressed its campaign against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The twin flashpoints underscore a volatile escalation that could reshape diplomatic and security calculations across the Middle East. Escalation of US‑Iran Aerial Confrontations in the Gulf U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that seven ballistic missiles were launched toward Kuwait and Bahrain, and that four Iranian drones headed for the Strait of Hormuz were shot down. Six of the missiles were successfully intercepted; the seventh fell short of its target. In response, U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar installations on Qeshm Island and at Goruk. Missile and Drone Interception Numbers Reveal Operational Capacity 7 missiles launched – 6 intercepted, 1 missed its target 4 attack drones engaged and destroyed U.S. strikes hit 2 Iranian radar sites (Goruk, Qeshm Island) Iranian IRGC claims the attacks were retaliation for U.S. strikes and aimed at four oil tankers attempting to transit the waterway Lebanese army reported several soldiers killed, including an officer, in an Israeli strike on the Khardali‑Nabatieh road Regional Repercussions: Israel’s Lebanon Campaign and Global Shipping Risks The Gulf skirmishes intersect with Israel’s ongoing air campaign in southern Lebanon, where Hezbollah‑linked forces continue to clash with Israeli jets. The Lebanese army’s casualties highlight the war’s spill‑over potential, while Iran’s rhetoric frames the U.S. naval presence as an “aggression” that will not go unanswered. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20% of global oil passes—could trigger spikes in energy prices and force shipping firms to reroute vessels, increasing freight costs worldwide. What the Next Weeks May Hold for US‑Iran Negotiations Indirect talks between Washington and Tehran remain stalled, with Iran demanding sanctions waivers, access to frozen assets, and an end to the U.S. blockade, while the United States seeks a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and concessions on Tehran’s nuclear program. The recent kinetic exchange raises the risk that diplomatic overtures could collapse, potentially prompting a broader U.S. military response or a renewed push for a cease‑fire mediated by regional powers.

The LeadAs the US-Israel war on Iran entered its 96th day, the conflict widened across the Gulf region, with both sides reporting new military actions. The United States military said it carried out "self-defence" strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island, while Iranian media reported explosions in the area.Gulf Region Becomes New BattlegroundThe escalation spilled into neighbouring countries, with Kuwait saying its air defence systems had intercepted incoming drones and missiles, and Bahrain activating warning sirens. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) also said it had intercepted multiple Iranian missiles and drones, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it had targeted US military assets in the region in response to US strikes.Iran's Military ResponseCiting the IRGC, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported the latest exchange began when US forces struck an Iranian oil tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, damaging its engine room. The IRGC said it responded by targeting a US-Israeli vessel with naval missiles before US forces struck an IRGC communications tower south of Qeshm Island.Iran's leadership has not ruled out a deal with the US, but deep mistrust and hardened positions from both sides continue to complicate negotiations. While military, religious and political leaders insist there will be no "surrender" to Washington, subtle differences remain in how key figures view a potential agreement.Diplomatic Efforts Amidst MistrustSecretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is alive and becoming "increasingly engaged" in negotiations with Washington. Khamenei has not appeared publicly since reportedly being wounded in US-Israeli strikes that killed his predecessor and father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.Rubio said Washington has not offered sanctions relief in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz. The US will provide sanctions relief to Iran only in exchange for nuclear concessions, he said during a Senate hearing.US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran have been continuing, but cautioned that their outcome remains unclear. "One never knows" where the talks may lead, he said, reiterating his call for Tehran to reach a deal.Iran's chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran could abandon negotiations with the US and move towards confrontation if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue. The warning came during a conversation with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri.Economic and Strategic ImplicationsAnalyst Alan Eyre said any agreement will likely need to deliver tangible benefits for both Washington and Tehran. Trump faces pressure to secure meaningful nuclear concessions to counter criticism that a deal would merely restore the status quo before the war, while Iran needs economic relief through measures such as access to frozen assets or new revenue mechanisms. Eyre noted that although the US blockade is damaging Iran's economy over time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating more immediate and urgent pressure on global markets.US Military Operations in the GulfCENTCOM said an "additional wave of Iranian drones" attempted to target US forces in Kuwait, but the attack was unsuccessful. It said US air defences intercepted multiple drones and that no Americans or assets were harmed. CENTCOM said earlier on Wednesday that it had struck an Iranian ground control station on Qeshm Island in what it described as a "self-defence" operation.CENTCOM dismissed IRGC claims that Iranian missiles and drones had struck the headquarters of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain and a regional US airbase, saying the attacks failed to reach their targets. In a statement on X, it called the claims false and said all Iranian attacks against US forces had been unsuccessful. "US forces remain vigilant and ready to defend against unwarranted Iranian aggression," it added.Criticism of Trump's Iran PolicyDemocratic senators sharply criticised the Trump administration's handling of the war. Senator Chris Van Hollen called its foreign policy a "dumpster fire" and described the conflict as "stupid and reckless". Senator Cory Booker argued that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had handed Tehran new leverage, saying the war had caused widespread economic disruption and "never should have happened".Israel's Northern Border StrategyPrime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his government is pursuing "massive plans" to strengthen northern Israel and address what he called the "drone problem" along the border with Lebanon. Speaking at a government meeting, he said fortification measures extending up to 7km (4.3 miles) from the border would support Israel's campaign against Hezbollah. Netanyahu added that the government is investing $20bn to improve security and economic development in the region.Reporting from Nablus, Al Jazeera's Nida Ibrahim said criticism of Netanyahu is mounting across Israel's political spectrum, with opponents and some coalition allies accusing him of putting his political survival before broader strategic goals against Hezbollah. Ibrahim said many analysts believe Netanyahu sought to expand military operations in Beirut partly to derail US-Iran talks and that pressure from Washington may have forced him to step back, fuelling further frustration among his critics.Escalation in Lebanon and GazaAt least five people, including a child, were killed and 45 others wounded in Israeli attacks on the southern Lebanese towns of Burj Shemali, Ebba and Tibnin, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health.

Thailand's Sweeping Assault on Corporate NomineesThai authorities have launched an unprecedented crackdown on foreign businesses utilizing local 'nominees' to bypass strict ownership laws. Driven by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, the government is utilizing artificial intelligence to dismantle shell companies, sending shockwaves through the expat community and signaling a definitive end to decades of regulatory leniency.Unmasking the Illusion of Local OwnershipUnder the Foreign Business Act, non-citizens are prohibited from holding more than a 49% stake in local businesses. To circumvent this, foreign entrepreneurs have historically paid Thai nationals to act as majority owners on paper. Authorities are now aggressively dismantling these fronts. In one notable case, a registered nail salon in Krabi was revealed to be a front for an adult content business. Furthermore, a single accounting firm was found to have registered nearly 500 businesses—ranging from cannabis farms to beauty salons—using fraudulent local ownership structures.The Scale of the AI-Driven AuditThe government's enforcement mechanism has shifted from passive to highly proactive, leveraging cross-checked databases and artificial intelligence to identify discrepancies. The sheer volume of the crackdown is staggering:50,000 foreign-linked companies have been flagged for enhanced scrutiny.In Koh Samui and Koh Phangan, 70% of the 16,800 registered legal entities are part-owned by foreigners.Authorities recently confiscated 30 land plots in Koh Phangan valued at 150 million baht ($4.5m).28 foreign suspects in Phuket and Surat Thani have been referred to prosecutors.Reverberations Through the Expat Investment CommunityThe sudden enforcement has triggered widespread panic among foreign investors and business owners. Legal firms, such as Lawyers for Expats Thailand, report receiving over 100 calls daily from fearful investors facing frozen assets or criminal charges. The crackdown highlights a growing tension between local citizens and foreign capital. Local business leaders argue that foreigners using illegal structures to develop luxury villas and Airbnbs artificially inflate prices, pricing Thai nationals out of the market and undercutting local enterprise.The End of the 'Grey Market' for Foreign CapitalMoving forward, the landscape for foreign investment in Thailand will demand strict compliance. Experts note that clients are no longer seeking legal 'shortcuts' but are demanding sustainable, lawful corporate structures. While there are concerns about collateral damage to legitimate investors, the government's focus on dismantling illicit networks—particularly those linked to Southeast Asia's proliferation of cyber-scam operations—indicates that this rigorous enforcement is permanent. Foreigners operating in Thailand must now adapt to a transparent regulatory environment or face severe asset forfeiture.

Executive Summary: A Deal Remains ElusiveIran’s leadership has not ruled out a settlement with the United States, but competing hawkish voices on both sides are raising demands that keep any understanding out of reach. The war‑driven environment, disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and lingering distrust make the path to a durable agreement uncertain.Divergent Stances Within Iran’s Power StructureKey figures and institutions express markedly different thresholds for negotiation:Mojtaba Khamenei – son of the late Supreme Leader, author of written messages that stress a “resistance economy” and a future without U.S. presence.IRGC commanders – Ahmad Vahidi, Ali Abdollahi, Majid Mousavi and Mohammad Ali Jafari demand no major concessions, emphasizing deterrence, control of the Strait of Hormuz and a set of five pre‑conditions for talks.Saeed Jalili and the Paydari Front – hard‑line parliamentarians who view any compromise as a loss, insisting on guarantees that do not rely on “trusting” the United States.Government pragmatists – parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signal openness to a pragmatic deal that ends hostilities.Financial Stakes and Strategic DemandsNegotiations are anchored by concrete economic and security requests:Control and classification of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, including the right to levy transit fees.Access to at least 12 bn USD in frozen Iranian assets abroad.Removal of U.S. and United Nations sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme.Release of frozen assets, war reparations and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over Hormuz as outlined by Mohammad Ali Jafari.Regional and Diplomatic ImplicationsThe internal split influences broader dynamics:Continued military exchanges between the U.S. and the IRGC raise the risk of accidental escalation.State‑run media and IRGC‑linked outlets amplify maximalist rhetoric, shaping public opinion against compromise.Hard‑line pressure could force the United States to offer stricter guarantees, potentially prolonging the stalemate.Any concession on Hormuz could alter global oil shipping routes and affect energy markets worldwide.Outlook: Scenarios for a US‑Iran AgreementAnalysts see three plausible trajectories:Stalemate – hard‑liners block a deal, extending the conflict and deepening sanctions.Limited Interim Accord – pragmatic leaders secure a cease‑fire and limited economic relief while broader issues remain unresolved.Comprehensive Settlement – a breakthrough that meets most of Tehran’s demands (asset release, Hormuz control, sanction lift) and includes security guarantees for the United States, leading to a gradual de‑escalation.The direction Iran ultimately takes will hinge on the balance of power between its hard‑line factions and the more moderate elements seeking an end to the war.

Iran has reasserted its control over the Strait of Hormuz, warning that foreign commercial and military vessels will be targeted if they do not comply with regulations governing passage through the strategic waterway.Iran's Assertion of Maritime SovereigntyThe announcement came after the United States signalled that President Donald Trump was close to a decision on a potential deal with Iran, though Tehran denied an agreement had been reached. The operational headquarters of Iran’s armed forces, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, stated that the management of the Strait is exercised with full authority by the Islamic Republic.“All ships, commercial vessels, and tankers are only required to travel through the designated routes and obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [IRGC] Navy,” the statement added. It warned that any violation would seriously jeopardise the security of their traffic.The High-Stakes Diplomatic StandoffThe situation is defined by a clash of demands. While the US seeks a deal ensuring Iran never develops nuclear weapons, Iran is demanding the immediate release of $12bn in frozen assets before proceeding to the next phase of negotiations.US Position: President Trump stated Tehran would remove mines from the strait and end its closure with “no tolls,” while the US would lift its blockade.Iranian Position: Adviser Mohsen Rezaei accused the US of “betraying diplomacy” and making excessive demands.Regional Military EscalationMilitary posturing remains high as both sides prepare for a potential breakdown in talks. Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth stated that Washington was “more than capable” of restarting the war if a satisfactory deal is not reached.On the ground, tensions escalated with the shooting down of a drone described as belonging to the “US-Zionist enemy” by Iranian air defences. Meanwhile, US Central Command (CENTCOM) continues to warn Iranian ships against crossing the blockade line.Navigating the Path to a DealWith President Trump’s “final determination” pending, the coming days are critical for global stability. The stalemate over the $12bn assets and the reopening of the strait suggests that a diplomatic resolution is not imminent, leaving global markets on edge regarding the flow of oil through this critical chokepoint.

The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

Lead: Overview of the tentative 60‑day cease‑fire extensionOfficials from the United States and Iran say they have drafted a preliminary memorandum of understanding (MOU) that would prolong the existing cease‑fire for 60 days and launch negotiations aimed at ending the war permanently. The framework still requires final sign‑off from President Donald Trump and has not yet been publicly confirmed by either side.Key provisions of the proposed memorandumStrait of Hormuz: Shipping would become “unrestricted,” mines removed within 30 days and the U.S. naval blockade lifted proportionally.Sanctions and aid: The U.S. would waive selected sanctions, allow Iran to sell oil freely, and discuss humanitarian aid and the unfreezing of billions of dollars in frozen assets.Nuclear commitment: Iran would pledge not to pursue a nuclear weapon and negotiate the disposition of its estimated 440 kg of 60 % enriched uranium.Regional conflicts: The agreement envisions an end to Israel’s offensive in southern Lebanon and a broader discussion of Iran’s support for proxy groups.Numbers that shape the deal60 days – the duration of the cease‑fire extension.20 percent – share of global oil and LNG that transits the Strait of Hormuz under normal conditions.$2 million – tolls some vessels have been forced to pay during the conflict.Billions of dollars – value of Iranian assets currently frozen abroad.Strategic implications for the region and global marketsUnrestricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz would ease pressure on global energy prices, which have been volatile since the blockade began in April. A credible nuclear‑non‑proliferation commitment could reduce the risk of a regional arms race, while sanctions relief would provide Iran with much‑needed foreign exchange. The cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon could also de‑escalate the broader Israel‑Iran proxy confrontation.What the next 60 days could mean for peace talksIf the MOU is ratified, the 60‑day window will become a high‑stakes diplomatic sprint. Negotiators are expected to focus first on the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, followed by detailed discussions on sanctions, proxy support and a permanent cease‑fire mechanism. Continued skirmishes—such as recent U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian drone attacks—highlight the fragility of the pause and underscore the importance of swift, coordinated implementation.