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Campaigners and industry bodies are urging the UK government to resist calls for another relaxation of the zero‑emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate after an analysis showed that the 2024 rule changes could add 17 million tonnes of CO₂ to the atmosphere by 2030. Campaigners Warn Against Further Weakening of the UK ZEV Mandate The original ZEV mandate, introduced in 2023, required manufacturers to raise electric‑car sales to 80% by 2030. Labour’s 2024 revisions added “flexibilities” allowing higher sales of plug‑in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), which combine a small battery with a petrol engine. Projected 17 Million Tonnes Extra CO₂ Emissions by 2030 Industry analysis shows an additional 59 billion miles driven by petrol and diesel cars and vans compared with forecasts made before the ZEV changes. This mileage increase translates to roughly 17 million tonnes of direct CO₂ emissions – comparable to the annual output of a small country such as Croatia. Sales of PHEVs rose 48% this year, reflecting manufacturers’ response to the new flexibilities. The Department for Transport (DfT) attributes most of the extra mileage to the mandate changes, noting that fewer PHEV owners use the electric mode. Consequences for the Charging Industry and Energy Transition Fewer fully electric vehicles on the road threatens the business case for charge‑point investors. Vicky Read, chief executive of ChargeUK, warned that billions of pounds of infrastructure spending are predicated on the original ZEV forecasts, and another rollback could “pull the rug from beneath the charging sector.” Colin Walker of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit cautioned that further weakening could push consumers toward PHEVs that cost “hundreds, even thousands, of pounds a year more to own and run than an electric car.” Outlook: Potential Policy Paths and Emissions Trajectory The government has pledged a review of the ZEV mandate by early 2027. If the flexibilities are fully exploited, the headline target of 33% electric sales this year could fall to as low as 7%, according to think‑tank New AutoMotive. Stakeholders such as Mike Hawes (Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders) argue for a “review of the transition” to align ambition with market realities, while the government reiterates its commitment to ban new non‑zero‑emission car and van sales by 2035 and is investing over £7.5bn in EV market growth and infrastructure.

A new CBI‑ECIU analysis finds the UK’s net‑zero economy now delivers over £100 billion of annual economic output, supports more than a million jobs and is backed by a £455 billion investment pipeline. Net‑Zero Sector Surpasses £100bn Annual Output The report, commissioned by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, quantifies the scale of the UK’s green economy across energy, manufacturing, services and supply chains. 308,000 people employed directly in solar, wind, EVs, insulation and related trades. Including supply‑chain roles, employment rises to 1.1 million jobs. Average net‑zero wage: £43,000 per year – about 11% above the national average of £39,000. Each net‑zero worker generates roughly £120,000 of value for the wider economy. £105bn Gross Value Added and £455bn Investment Pipeline Economic contribution metrics underscore the sector’s importance. Gross value added (GVA): £105 billion, representing nearly 4% of UK GDP. Planned energy‑infrastructure investment: £455 billion. Projected to boost productivity at a time when the UK faces low‑productivity challenges. Boost to Jobs, Wages and Regional Competitiveness Beyond headline numbers, the green economy is reshaping regional labour markets and political debate. Approximately 22,000 small businesses are active in renewable and efficiency projects. Policy drivers include the government target to decarbonise electricity by 2030 and the broader net‑zero goal for 2050. Opposition from the Conservative and Reform UK parties, as well as statements from former PM Tony Blair, threatens to curtail future growth. Minister for Climate Katie White emphasised electrification and home‑grown clean power as essential for energy security. Policy Push and Market Risks Shape the Next Decade Looking ahead, the sector’s trajectory hinges on sustained political support and continued investment. If net‑zero targets are maintained, the economy could expand beyond the current £100 billion annual output, attracting additional private capital. A reversal of climate policy could jeopardise up to £455 billion of planned projects and erode high‑wage jobs. Continued decarbonisation of the power system by 2030 is expected to further accelerate job creation and GVA growth.

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair has called for the UK to scrap its 2050 net‑zero goal and ramp up North Sea oil and gas drilling, prompting a swift backlash from climate experts who label the suggestion “bizarre” amid a historic heatwave and rising energy costs. Blair’s Call to Re‑Open North Sea Oil and Gas E3G programme director Ed Matthew warned that abandoning net zero during the “worst May heatwave on record” would be a “massive setback” for the UK, emphasizing that clean energy is cheaper and has near‑zero operating costs. Economic Stakes: £200 million Heatwave Losses and Fossil‑Fuel Costs Heat stress on livestock and crops is projected to cost the UK economy over £200 million this year. The International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol notes that new oil fields would have “little impact” on domestic fuel prices. Renewable‑energy growth, especially record‑breaking solar generation, is already reducing household energy bills. Why Renewables Outperform Fossil Fuel Revival in the UK Analysts such as Jess Ralston (Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit) argue that expanding solar and other clean‑power technologies shields consumers from volatile fossil‑fuel markets and supports energy security as the North Sea declines. Comparisons to Spain’s renewable‑driven price stability reinforce the case for electrification as the “obvious route” to lower bills. What the Next Steps Mean for UK Energy Policy Government spokespersons confirm that no new exploration licences will be granted, focusing instead on managing existing fields for the remainder of their lifespan while accelerating the clean‑power mission championed by Energy Secretary Ed Miliband. If the current trajectory holds, the UK is likely to cement its position as a leader in renewable deployment, rendering calls to revive North Sea drilling increasingly marginal in policy debates.

Britain is on track to become a hot country, and without decisive action the nation’s climate challenges will deepen existing inequalities. A fresh report from the Climate Change Committee (CCC) outlines the scale of the threat and the urgent need for policies that protect the most vulnerable. The Heat is Coming: UK Temperatures Set to Surge The CCC notes that average temperatures are already 1.4°C above historic norms and are projected to climb another 2°C in the next twenty years. This rise will produce summer heatwaves reaching 45°C for more than a week, far surpassing the previous record of 40 °C set in 2022. In addition to scorching days, the UK will face more frequent droughts and intense flooding. Numbers That Reveal a Growing Crisis 9 out of 10 British homes are at risk of overheating. Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimates an extra £360 per household on the annual food bill, with a 50% price rise forecast by November 2026 compared with 2021. Pregnant women exposed to high temperatures have higher risks of pre‑term birth, stillbirth and obstetric complications (Wellcome study). Students taking exams at 32°C perform worse than at 22°C (CCC‑cited study). Extreme‑weather events disproportionately affect low‑income communities, limiting their ability to fund cooling, flood defenses or relocate. Why Inequality Will Deepen Across Britain Heat and flooding intersect with income, health, housing and geography. Wealthier households can afford air‑conditioning, single‑room cooling solutions, or private flood‑defence measures, while poorer families may only manage one cooled room or lack any protection at all. Access to green space—a proven health buffer—remains limited for the poorest, further eroding resilience. Cath Smith, head of social impact at the Green Alliance, stresses that “climate change consequences aren’t felt equally.” The report warns that without policy that recognises these unequal impacts, rising temperatures will exacerbate existing social divides. Politically, the climate‑stress narrative offers fertile ground for populist parties. Sam Alvis of the IPPR notes that far‑right groups have already begun exploiting public frustration over inadequate preparation, echoing patterns seen in Valencia and Los Angeles. What the Next Decade May Hold for Policy and Society The CCC recommends universal air‑conditioning in schools by 2050, yet strained education budgets risk uneven rollout. Investment in resilient infrastructure—such as flood‑proof housing, upgraded drainage and community cooling hubs—could mitigate the worst outcomes. Experts like Dr Friederike Otto of Imperial College London argue that adaptation alone is insufficient; rapid decarbonisation remains the “most effective way to tackle climate change.” Policymakers will need to balance immediate adaptation spending with long‑term emissions‑reduction strategies to avoid a feedback loop of worsening heat and widening inequality.

The UK is bracing for a potential third inflationary shock in less than a decade as the conflict between Iran and the US threatens to disrupt oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, is at risk of being blocked, which could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. The impact of such a disruption would be felt globally, with Asia being particularly affected as it buys 80% of the oil transported through the strait. Countries in the region are already experiencing the effects, with governments imposing limits on driving and shortening working weeks to conserve energy. Populations are struggling with dramatic hikes in food prices and shortages of petrol and diesel. In Bangladesh, the government reportedly believes it will run out of oil and gas within weeks. To conserve fuel, some temples in Thailand have stopped cremations. The energy-supply storm may well hit the UK's shores just before next month's elections, prompting Keir Starmer to call Cobra meetings and Rachel Reeves to summon business leaders into Downing Street. The poorest households will be hit hardest by the inflationary shock, with food producers predicting prices will rocket nearly 10% this year. According to calculations done exclusively for this column by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), that will add £127 to the average household's annual food bill. However, the ECIU also notes that because the poorest spend proportionately more of their money on food, they will be hit far worse. The author suggests that the UK needs to adopt a more progressive approach to utility pricing, with a move away from fossil fuels and from the current system of ownership. The days of relying on a growth miracle are over, and the UK needs to focus on addressing the inequality and regressive utility pricing that will exacerbate the impact of the inflationary shock.

Households in Great Britain are bracing for a substantial hike in energy bills, with a typical gas and electricity bill forecast to reach £1,929 a year from July. This represents an increase of about £290 a year under the industry regulator Ofgem's quarterly price cap. The forecast hike is £288 a year higher than the £1,641 cap on energy bills set for April to June. Although the April price cap will be £117 a year, or 7%, lower than the January to March rate of £1,758, the short-lived reprieve from rising gas and electricity costs is expected to be more than offset by a string of rises facing households in the spring. The annual cost of essentials, including council tax and water, will increase by more than £200 from April even before the economic impact of the Iran war is felt by UK consumers. Most households in England and Wales will see an increase of about 5% in their council tax, while in Scotland bills will go up by between 4% and 10%. In Northern Ireland, rates are due to increase between 1.96% and 4.5%. Water bills in England and Wales are also due to rise, by an average of £33 a household from April, up 5.4% to £639. The cost of phones and broadband are expected to rise by an average of £39.60 for an annual bill and £27.60 for a typical mobile contract, according to Uswitch. Senior government ministers are expected to discuss the economic turmoil caused by the war at a Cobra meeting on Tuesday, after meeting with business leaders to discuss how the government and private sector can work together to respond to the crisis caused by surging oil market prices. The international oil benchmark rose 4% to more than $118 a barrel on Tuesday as Donald Trump said countries such as the UK should build up the “courage” to go to the strait of Hormuz and “just take” fuel. Experts fear that Brent crude could reach all-time highs of $150 a barrel if the conflict continues. “Bills going up again because of war thousands of miles away will be a tough pill to swallow for households still saddled with debt from last time,” said Jess Ralston, the head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit. “Unless we continue [to] shift away from gas, whether it comes from the North Sea or not, the risk remains that bills will continue to spike,” Ralston added.

Solar panel sales have surged dramatically since the onset of the Iran war, according to Octopus Energy, with British households increasingly opting for larger rooftop installations to achieve energy independence.The company reported a 54% increase in sales this month compared to the same period last month, marking a significant shift in consumer behavior amid global energy uncertainty.Rebecca Dibb-Simkin, Octopus Energy's chief product officer, observed: "We are seeing a massive shift as people stop just asking and start acting. British families are tired of being held hostage by global fossil fuel prices. By switching to solar and heat pumps, they are becoming their own power stations, locking in low costs and protecting their wallets for the long term."Octopus noted that many customers are choosing "supersize" systems with 12 panels instead of the typical 10-panel arrays. Additionally, heat pump sales have increased by more than 50%, while electric vehicle charger systems have seen a 20% rise in sales.Greg Jackson, Octopus Energy's chief executive, described a "huge jolt" in solar sales compared to February. On March 17, the company reported a 27% increase in solar sales inquiries since the start of the Iran war.Good Energy, another green electricity supplier, confirmed this trend, reporting a doubling of interest in solar panels over the past three months.Nigel Pocklington, Good Energy's chief executive, emphasized: "The most effective way to bring bills down over the long term is to double down on renewables, alongside storage and flexibility, so more of our power comes from predictable, homegrown sources. We should be putting solar on any building that can take it. That's how we cut costs, strengthen energy security and give people real control over the energy they rely on every day."The market is poised for further growth with plug-in solar kits expected to become available from high street retailers and supermarkets in the coming months. The government recently announced that most new homes will likely have solar panels from 2028 and will lift a ban on sales of these kits.Andrew Dickinson, head of infrastructure at Heligan Group, explained: "Given the recent geopolitical events, the UK's reliance on global energy markets has become front and centre. The solution lies in a series of short-term initiatives to address the immediate impact of rising energy prices on homeowners. Plug-in solar is one of these solutions that is expected to lower the barriers to entry for homeowners. The previously lengthy process of roof assessment, design and installation by a specialist technician will no longer be necessary."A recent report from Electrify Britain, backed by Octopus, found that solar panels and heat pumps would significantly reduce vulnerability to fossil fuel price fluctuations. The report "Plug In, Pay Less" revealed that houses using these technologies would be almost immune to fossil fuel price rises: a 30% increase in wholesale gas and oil prices would translate into only a 1.7% rise in energy bills by 2035 for households using no gas or oil appliances.Energy bills are expected to rise by more than £300 this July, according to Cornwall Insight, a consultancy. Jess Ralston, head of energy at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, commented: "Predictions of energy bills rising by hundreds of pounds will feel like deja vu to hard-working families as yet another gas price crisis pushes up the cost of living. Many are still saddled with debt from the last gas crisis while Putin and the oil and gas companies stand to benefit."Ralston added: "These wars and the global gas market are clearly beyond the UK's control, so the only way we have to permanently stabilise bills is to cut our use of gas and that means switching to electric heat pumps and renewables that squeeze gas power plants off the grid."Octopus Energy also noted a one-third increase in inquiries about leasing electric vehicles, further indicating a broader shift toward renewable energy solutions among British consumers.