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Lead: A Decade‑Long Warning from BrexitThe Guardian’s Richard Partington argues that the ten‑year legacy of Brexit is a stark reminder that “easy solutions” to deep‑seated issues rarely work. Citing economists such as Nick Bloom and former minister Alan Milburn, the piece highlights the persistent economic drag and the political complexity of any re‑entry plan.Brexit’s Ten‑Year Economic TollTen years after the binary referendum, the UK’s departure from the EU has proven far from the promised panacea. The lack of a clear, implementable vision left businesses in limbo, freezing investment and stalling trade.Quantifying the GDP, Investment, Employment and Productivity GapsGDP per head: up to 8% lower than a remain scenario.Business investment: roughly 18% lower than it would have been.Employment: about 4% lower than under remain.Productivity: down up to 4% relative to a stay‑in‑EU trajectory.These figures come from a paper by Nick Bloom for the US National Bureau of Economic Research, reinforcing the scale of the economic setback.Why the Brexit Experiment Undermines UK Growth ProspectsThe fallout stems from a coalition of libertarian Atlanticists and anti‑globalist voters whose expectations diverged sharply. While the former envisioned a “Singapore‑on‑Thames” low‑tax model, the latter demanded higher public spending, such as the £350 m a week for the NHS. The clash made coherent policy impossible, leading to regulatory duplication, trade friction, and a loss of confidence among investors.Geopolitical shifts—U.S. protectionism under Donald Trump, rising tensions with China, and Middle‑East conflicts—have further exposed the fragility of the UK’s trade‑first strategy, prompting renewed calls for closer EU ties.What the Next Decade Could Hold for Britain’s EU RelationsExperts like former BoE policymaker Danny Blanchflower caution that any move to re‑join the EU would be “far too simplistic” without a detailed, negotiated framework covering regulations, standards, and market access. The political landscape, still influenced by figures such as Nigel Farage and the potential rise of a Reform UK government, adds uncertainty that could keep investment muted.In the absence of a clear, expert‑driven roadmap, the UK risks prolonging the economic drag while grappling with other structural challenges, notably a looming youth unemployment crisis projected to exceed 1 million by the early 2030s.

A shock government‑backed report this week warned of the danger of a “lost generation” of young people in Britain, as the number of 16‑ to 24‑year‑olds not in education, employment or training (NEETs) rose to more than 1 million, roughly 13.5% of the cohort.Rising NEET Numbers Spark Alarm in the UKOfficial UK statistics show that 13.5% of young people are not in work or college, climbing to 15.8% among 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds – nearly one in six. The report, authored by former Labour cabinet minister Alan Milburn, warns that without decisive action the country could see a sustained “lost generation”.Comparative NEET Rates: UK vs NetherlandsUK NEET rate (16‑24): 13.5% overall, 15.8% for 18‑24 year olds.Netherlands NEET rate (15‑29, adjusted): 5.3% last year, consistently below 5% for over a decade.Potential impact: Matching the Dutch rate could move 600,000 more 18‑ to 24‑year‑olds into learning or earning.Why Dutch Vocational Pathways Keep Youth EngagedThe Dutch system centres on three pillars: strong vocational secondary education (MBO), a welfare safety net that prioritises engagement and rehabilitation, and financial incentives for employers. Around 70% of Dutch 16‑ to 19‑year‑olds in upper secondary education attend an MBO school, and 35% of under‑25s later study at technical or professional universities. By contrast, only 22% of UK 18‑ to 21‑year‑olds were on vocational courses in 2024.Technical education is treated as “the foundation of the economy”, with work‑based learning embedded in curricula – many students combine four days of school with one day of on‑the‑job training.Policy Levers Behind the Dutch Low NEET RateThe 2004 Work and Social Assistance Act devolved welfare programmes to municipalities, creating personalised, localised support that addresses mental health and long‑term illness. Local councils provide tailored engagement programmes, subsidised employment, and specialised training, preventing young people on incapacity benefits from falling through the cracks.Employers receive fiscal incentives, such as payroll‑tax cuts and direct subsidies that cover up to 70% of wages for chronically unemployed youth, as highlighted by the Youth Futures Foundation. Rotterdam’s city council, led by Tim Versnel, funds up to 70% of wages for young chronically unemployed people and offers holistic support covering mental resilience, substance‑use treatment, and financial literacy.What the UK Could Adopt to Reverse the TrendTo emulate the Dutch success, the UK might consider:Expanding vocational pathways and integrating work‑based learning into secondary education.Devolving youth‑welfare services to local authorities for more personalised support.Introducing targeted fiscal incentives for businesses hiring young workers, including wage subsidies and tax relief.Adopting a whole‑of‑life approach that combines education, mental‑health services, and financial literacy for chronically unemployed youth.While cultural and structural differences mean a direct copy is impossible, the Dutch experience offers a roadmap for reducing Britain’s NEET rate and revitalising its youth labour market.

The Call for Tax Cuts Wes Streeting has called for national insurance tax cuts for businesses, and for the government to drill for oil and gas in the North Sea. The former health secretary and Labour leadership candidate told the Sunday Times there should be a “targeted reduction” of employers’ national insurance contribution as a way to “actively incentivise” hiring, particularly of young people. The Impact of National Insurance Rate Increase In 2024, the rate of national insurance paid by employers was increased from 13.8% on each employee’s salary to 15%. The starting threshold it applied to was lowered from £9,100 to £5,000. The measure aimed to raise £25bn a year, but businesses said it disincentivised hiring lower-paid and part-time staff. Youth Unemployment Concerns A report this week by the former cabinet minister Alan Milburn said a lack of hospitality jobs was contributing to high youth unemployment in Britain. It pointed to a halving of vacancies in the hospitality industry over the past four years alone. Analysis shows Britain has the third-highest rate of 16- to 24-year-olds who are not earning or learning among rich European countries. The Government's Response Pat McFadden, the work and pensions secretary, suggested he disagreed with this view. Speaking on Sky News on Sunday morning, he defended the government’s record, saying that businesses already did not have to pay employers’ national insurance for workers under 21. The Future of North Sea Drilling There has been a debate within Labour about whether to grant drilling consents for the giant oil and gas fields Rosebank and Jackdaw. Though there was a commitment not to give out any more licences for fossil fuels in Labour’s manifesto, there is a loophole that could be exploited; Rosebank and Jackdaw were given exploration licences by the previous Conservative government. They just need consent to drill. Ed Miliband's Decision Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, is due to make a decision on these oil and gas fields in coming weeks. He, along with the North Sea Transition Authority, have to decide whether the drilling would be consistent with the UK’s climate commitments.

The Government's Response to the Youth Employment CrisisA former chief executive of Marks & Spencer has been appointed as a government jobs adviser in its latest attempt to tackle the growing youth unemployment crisis. Marc Bolland, who oversaw the retail chain from 2010 to 2016, will lead a summit of business leaders, amid warnings that the country risks a "lost generation" without urgent intervention.The Scale of the Youth Unemployment ChallengeAbout 1 million people aged 16 to 24 – about one in eight – are not in education, employment or training. An interim report published by the former health secretary Alan Milburn warned that this cohort – known as Neets – could increase to 1.25 million by the 2030s without radical action. The proportion of Neets in the UK is significantly higher than in many other developed countries. In the Netherlands, about 5% of 16 to 24-year-olds are not in education or work, while it is about 12.5% in Britain.Bolland's Role and StrategyIn light of Milburn's findings, Bolland has been appointed as lead non-executive director at the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP), Downing Street said. Bolland, who also led supermarket Morrisons, is understood to have been chosen for the role thanks to his existing involvement with the DWP via his charity Movement to Work. The government said a collaboration with Movement to Work had already helped more than 200,000 unemployed young people find jobs.Economic Impact of Youth UnemploymentThe economic cost of the crisis is estimated to be about £125bn. Milburn's report found that six in 10 young people have never had a job, compared with four in 10 in 2005. He said that an increasing number of young people were being ruled as unfit to work due to health conditions including anxiety, depression and neurodevelopmental conditions. However, it is estimated that for every £25 the government spends on benefits for young people, it devotes just £1 to helping them find work.Focus on Vulnerable GroupsA central part of Bolland's role will be to work with charities supporting disabled young people to ensure they have access to training and employment opportunities. Almost half of those who claim a health or disability benefit before the age of 24 are still unemployed or not in education a decade later.Future Outlook and CollaborationThe government said Bolland would work with "leading chief executives across sectors" to "create clear routes into work and tackle the longstanding challenge of youth unemployment." It added that he would also advise the work and pensions secretary, Pat McFadden, on how the government should respond to Milburn's findings. McFadden said that Bolland's appointment sent a "clear signal" that the government was "serious about tackling that challenge" of youth unemployment. Bolland said he was "honoured and passionate" about working with the government, adding: "I know that working hand in hand with business to support young people gives them the best possible chance of success."

Rising rates of youth unemployment have created a split at the top of government over how fast it should meet its promise to give young people the full minimum wage.The Manifesto Promise vs. The Reality CheckPeter Kyle, the business secretary, is understood to believe now is not the time to give 18- to 20-year-olds the full minimum wage, which Labour promised to do in its manifesto. Others believe there is little evidence to show that recent pay rises for low-paid workers have had any effect on unemployment.Torsten Bell, a Treasury minister, told the BBC on Friday morning: “If you look at what the Low Pay Commission said in their annual report, they didn’t find evidence that previous increases in the minimum wage for young people had had an effect on their employment.”The £125bn Cost of InactionThe splits have emerged following a landmark government-backed report this week by the former Labour minister Alan Milburn, who found that youth unemployment was costing Britain more than £125bn a year. Milburn’s report revealed the number of young people not working or studying had surpassed a million for the first time in more than a decade, prompting calls to reduce the pace of youth minimum wage increases.Current Youth Rate: £10.85 (up 8.5% this year)Main Minimum Wage: £12.71 (up 4.1% this year)NEETs (Not in Education, Employment, or Training): Over 1 millionThe Hospitality Sector DilemmaMilburn himself told the News Agents podcast this week: “To get the jobs there for them, you’ve got to make sure the employers are willing to take the risk. If you’re in, say, the hospitality sector or the retail sector, margins tend to be very low. These tend to be sectors that were really badly hit by the cost of living, hospitality in particular.”Tony Blair, the former prime minister, warned in an essay this week that policies such as increasing the minimum wage – which he brought in – had created “headwinds, not tailwinds, for businesses.”The October Low Pay Commission VerdictLabour promised in its manifesto to equalise the rates of the minimum wage for 18- to 20-year-olds with those of workers who are 21 and over but did not say how quickly this would be achieved. Bell said on Friday: “We’re committed to our manifesto that we stood on and we will deliver it. But that manifesto did not set out the timeline.”While he and others in the government believe they should slow down the pace of rises in youth rates of the national minimum wage if there is evidence that it has an impact on employment, they do not yet believe that evidence exists.The commission will tell the government in October what it is recommending for the financial year starting on 1 April 2027; some in government privately hope it will give a recommendation significantly lower than this year’s. Earlier this year ministers even changed their guidance to the LPC to reflect the concerns in government over unemployment among young people, telling it to prioritise employment rates instead.

The Soho Society's New Licensing Mandate A society of residents funded by the council could “destroy Soho’s reputation on the international stage” as London’s entertainment district by ferociously objecting to all new bar and restaurant licences, operators in the area have said. The Soho Society, a group of residents established in 1972 aimed at “preserving the character of Soho”, voted in its AGM on Thursday for a new licensing mandate, meaning it will challenge all new applications for bars and restaurants in the area, including renewals of existing licences. The Impact on Businesses and Jobs The society claims the area in central London has seen an intensification of nightlife and unacceptable noise, as well as crime and litter caused by a proliferation of late-night revellers. However, business owners argue that this could strangle small businesses and limit job opportunities for young people. Rupert Power, the owner of Sophie’s, a steak restaurant, and the underground jazz bar Jack Solomons, both on Great Windmill Street, chairs the Soho business alliance, which is made up of 150 small companies. The Data Analysis The Soho Society is estimated to represent about 10% of the district’s residents. A report by the former cabinet minister Alan Milburn said a lack of hospitality jobs was contributing to high youth unemployment in Britain. The UK has the third-highest rate of 16- to 24-year-olds who are not earning or learning among rich European countries. The Impact Analysis The new mandate means it will be very difficult for businesses to open or expand in the area. Philip Kolvin KC, a planning lawyer, said the mandate would cover “pretty much the whole gamut of licence applications, so that rather than promoting innovation and diversity, it stymies it”. This could lead to delayed licensing applications, spiralling legal costs, and development contracts facing expiry. The Prediction Business owners and experts warn that the Soho Society's actions could have a negative impact on Soho's reputation and the local economy. Power added: “It is strangling small businesses, meaning there are less hours and jobs for young people to work. I really worry for young people. To have a minority be in a position of stifling growth that is funded by the council is not ideal.”

The Crisis Facing Young People in the UK Alan Milburn's report paints a grim picture of the lives and chances of young people in the UK. The diagnosis is dire, with over 1 million young people not in work, education, or training (Neets), and this number expected to rise to 1.25 million without radical change. The Extent of the Problem Milburn's report reveals a catastrophic failure in the support systems for young people. There has been institutional neglect, loss of youth and careers services, and chaotic communication between dislocated silos. The result is a 'moral crisis' that requires a 'big idea' and a 'system reset'. The report highlights that: 1.6 million first-rung jobs have vanished in the past 20 years. There has been a 35% fall in apprenticeship starts in the past decade. 60% of Neets have never had a job before. The Impact on Young People's Lives The report captures the misery of young people applying for jobs, facing rejection, and struggling with mental health issues. Many young people are eager to work or pursue apprenticeships, but face significant barriers. For example: 84% of those surveyed wanted to work or do an apprenticeship. 19% wanted to enter education or training. 15% have degrees. 30% have five good GCSEs or equivalent. The Way Forward Milburn's report calls for a comprehensive overhaul of the systems failing young people. He criticizes the current education system, which prioritizes exam results over outcomes and destinations. He also highlights the need for better support for young people with troubled families or poor mental health. The report's recommendations are expected to be released in a future publication, just before the Labour conference. A Call to Action for Labour The report presents a challenge to the Labour party to take action and address the crisis facing young people. As Labour strives for renewed purpose, Milburn's report provides a roadmap for change. The government is urged to ignore previous interventions, such as Tony Blair's recent essay, and instead focus on implementing the recommendations outlined in Milburn's report.

The Scope of the UK’s Youth Exclusion CrisisAlan Milburn, the Blair-era cabinet minister turned social mobility adviser, has delivered the first part of his government-commissioned report on why increasing numbers of people aged 16 to 24 are not in education, employment or training (Neet). The 217-page document paints a damning picture of a 'record of failure' that is letting down a generation.The report highlights that about 1 million young people across the UK are not in jobs, training or education—roughly one in eight. It notes that the UK’s Neet rate is now worse than all but one EU nation, with only Romania ranking lower. The issue is also becoming more entrenched, with six in 10 Neet young people having never held a single job.Economic Cost and Regional DisparitiesMilburn warns of a 'lost generation' with severe economic consequences. The cumulative cost of this issue is estimated at £125bn. The report also reveals stark geographical divides; for example, 1% of 16- and 17-year-olds in Barnet, north London, are Neet, compared to 21.5% in Dudley, West Midlands. Of the top 10 local authorities with the highest Neet rates, eight are in the north or Midlands.Structural Inequality and the Health CrisisThe analysis identifies structural inequality as a primary driver, linking Neet status to background, geography, and ethnicity. Health issues, particularly mental health, are described as central to the problem. Young people in this state are now more likely to be economically inactive (53%) than unemployed (47%). The report criticizes the NHS for categorizing young people as unable to work rather than helping them return to it, singling out the 'fit note' system as a failure.Systemic Reforms Needed to Break the CycleThe report suggests that the social security system is failing to support reintegration, noting that for every £25 spent on benefits, only £1 goes toward helping young people back into work. Furthermore, the labour market is becoming hostile to young entrants due to AI recruitment filters and a lack of entry-level roles. To prevent a permanent underclass, the government must address the fragmented support system and housing instability.

Britain faces a looming fiscal shock of roughly £125 bn each year if the surge in youth worklessness is not tackled, according to a landmark review led by former Labour minister Alan Milburn.The Milburn Review Highlights a £125bn Fiscal DrainThe report, commissioned by the government, labels the growing cohort of young people outside school, work or training as a “lost generation”. It argues that the current trajectory is no longer affordable and may become unsustainable for public finances.Numbers Behind the Crisis: Over 1 Million NEETs and £8.1bn Benefits SpendNEET count in the three months to March 2026: 1,012,000 (first breach of 1 m since 2013).Average lifetime earnings loss per NEET (age 18‑24): £52,000 per year.Annual benefits cost for young people: £8.1 bn, with £4.4 bn directly linked to NEETs.Potential GDP boost if all NEETs were employed: £38 bn extra output.Estimated lifetime public‑finance impact per NEET: £29,000.Why the Growing NEET Population Undermines the UK EconomyThe surge coincides with the highest overall unemployment levels since the Covid pandemic and comes amid broader economic pressures from tax hikes and the fallout of the Iran war. The report warns that the longer a young person remains out of work or study, the costlier the intervention becomes, creating a multibillion‑pound “financial black hole”.Policy Paths and the Likelihood of ReformMilburn calls for a “fundamental reset” of policies across schools, the NHS and the welfare state, arguing that simply expanding work programmes will not address deep‑rooted issues. He estimates that £3.2 bn could be saved if NEETs were in work and earning above benefit thresholds. However, any new welfare reforms may face political resistance after recent controversial benefit changes.