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Early signs point to the United States and China moving towards a relationship focused on pragmatic areas of common interest following President Donald Trump's trip to China, according to analysts, setting aside the turmoil that marked 2025. Business‑First Agenda Sets the Tone at the Beijing Summit The three‑day summit in Beijing brought together Donald Trump and Xi Jinping alongside a delegation of top American CEOs, including the heads of Apple, Nvidia, BlackRock and Goldman Sachs. The White House readout highlighted "ways to enhance economic cooperation" and "expanding market access for American businesses into China and increasing Chinese investment into our industries". Notably, the statement omitted any reference to China’s rare‑earth export controls, a strategic lever in the tech and defence sectors. Financial Stakes: $14 bn Taiwan Arms Deal and Market Access Promises $14 bn arms deal for Taiwan reportedly in the works, pending Trump’s sign‑off. Potential expansion of market access for U.S. firms in sectors ranging from semiconductors to finance. Chinese interest in purchasing more American oil to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical Ripple Effects: From Taiwan to the Strait of Hormuz Both leaders sidestepped several flashpoints. While Xi called Taiwan the "most important issue" in the bilateral relationship, neither side mentioned concrete steps on the island or on future arms sales. The summit also touched on the Strait of Hormuz, with both leaders agreeing it must remain open for global energy flows, despite ongoing conflict in the region. What Comes Next: Potential Shifts in Trade, Security and Energy Cooperation Analysts such as William Yang (Crisis Group) and Chucheng Feng (Hutong Research) view the summit as an attempt to lay a "floor" for the relationship, establishing guardrails while leaving item‑by‑item disagreements secondary. The next months will test whether the business‑first rhetoric translates into tangible policy – from the fate of the Taiwan arms package to renewed Chinese investment in U.S. industries and coordinated efforts to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Trump's Surprise Diplomatic Stop in BeijingThe former U.S. president arrived in China for a brief, photo‑documented meeting with President Xi, an event that drew immediate global attention. While the agenda was not publicly disclosed, the symbolism of the encounter alone carries weight in the current geopolitical climate.Details of the Trump‑Xi EncounterDate: 15 May 2026Location: Beijing, China (specific venue not disclosed)Participants: Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, senior aides from both sidesFormat: Private talks followed by a series of staged photographs released by the GuardianGeopolitical Stakes Without Immediate Financial MetricsThe meeting did not produce any disclosed trade agreements, aid packages, or monetary commitments, leaving analysts to focus on strategic signals rather than hard numbers. Consequently, traditional financial impact analysis is limited, but the diplomatic overture itself may influence market sentiment regarding U.S.–China trade policies.Implications for Bilateral Relations and Regional StabilityPotential easing of rhetoric on trade tariffs that have lingered since the early 2020s.Signal to allies and rivals alike that both nations are open to back‑channel dialogue.May affect ongoing negotiations in multilateral forums such as the WTO and the G20.Could influence security calculations in the Indo‑Pacific, especially regarding Taiwan and the South China Sea.Possible Trajectories for US‑China EngagementAnalysts anticipate three plausible paths: (1) a gradual de‑escalation of trade tensions, (2) the establishment of a limited cooperation framework on climate and technology, or (3) a return to status‑quo rivalry if substantive agreements fail to materialize. The next weeks of diplomatic activity, including any joint statements or follow‑up meetings, will clarify which direction the relationship is heading.

The Lead The United States is planning to indict former Cuban President Raul Castro as Washington raises the pressure on the island’s communist government. The Indictment Plans Several US media outlets reported on Thursday that the potential charges against the 94-year-old brother of Fidel Castro relate to a 1996 incident in which Cuba shot down planes flown by the anti-Castro humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue. The US Blockade The move comes amid a US blockade that has halted virtually all fuel supplies to the island, with the Trump administration, after celebrating its overthrow of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, pushing for regime change. The Impact Analysis Indicting Castro would mark a stunning escalation in the ongoing crisis in US-Cuba relations, which have deteriorated since US President Donald Trump took office for a second term in 2025. Trump has repeatedly said he wants to topple Cuba’s communist-led government, warning that Cuba is “next” after the US military abduction of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. The president first cut the flow of funds and fuel from Venezuela to Cuba in January. He then threatened heavy tariffs against any country that provides Havana with oil, implementing a de facto fuel blockade on the island. The Prediction Any indictment would need to be approved by a grand jury. The efforts have been led by the US Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Florida, according to the Reuters news agency.

The Lead: Trump-Xi Summit Concludes with Claims of Resolved IssuesPresident Donald Trump wrapped up his state visit to China by meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing's Zhongnanhai leadership compound, claiming to have settled "a lot of different problems" that previous administrations couldn't resolve. The US president described the visit as "incredible" and emphasized the strength of his personal relationship with Xi, while highlighting what he called "fantastic trade deals" for both countries.The Event Details: Final Day of Diplomatic EngagementThe meeting marked the final day of Trump's summit in China, where the two leaders engaged in both formal discussions and private conversations. Trump specifically mentioned their agreement on Iran, stating both countries share similar views on preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. "We want them to get it ended because it's a crazy thing there," Trump added regarding the Iranian situation.Following the approximately two-hour meeting, Trump was escorted to Beijing Airport by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, where a red carpet ceremony awaited. The departure was marked by dozens of schoolchildren waving both American and Chinese flags and chanting "farewell" in unison, symbolizing the carefully choreographed nature of diplomatic protocol.The Impact Analysis: Shifting Dynamics in US-China RelationsThis summit represents a significant moment in US-China relations, coming at a time of heightened trade tensions and geopolitical competition. Trump's emphasis on personal diplomacy and his claim to have resolved longstanding issues suggests a potential recalibration in how the two superpowers engage with each other. The public display of warmth between the leaders contrasts with the often-contentious relationship between their administrations, indicating a possible pragmatic approach to managing differences while seeking common ground.The focus on trade deals and Iran suggests both nations are prioritizing economic security and regional stability, potentially at the expense of addressing human rights concerns and broader geopolitical competition that have characterized recent years of US-China relations.The Prediction: Future Trajectory of Bilateral RelationsLooking ahead, the Trump-Xi summit may signal a period of pragmatic engagement where both countries prioritize economic cooperation and crisis management over ideological confrontation. However, the fundamental structural challenges in the relationship—including technological competition, security concerns in the Indo-Pacific, and differing political systems—remain unchanged. The coming months will reveal whether this apparent thaw represents a genuine shift toward more stable relations or merely a tactical pause in ongoing strategic competition.Trade relations, in particular, will be a key indicator of the summit's lasting impact, with implementation details of the "fantastic trade deals" Trump mentioned likely to face scrutiny from businesses, investors, and policymakers in both countries.

The LeadThe meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping has concluded, and for Taiwan, the outcome is being viewed as a positive one. Despite fears that Trump might overturn Washington's longstanding support for the island democracy, he took a muted approach, sidestepping questions on Taiwan during the talks. Trump's Muted Approach on TaiwanTrump hailed his 'great' meeting with Xi Jinping on Thursday but avoided discussing Taiwan, a move that has been welcomed in Taipei. A White House readout of the meeting also omitted mention of Taiwan, which Beijing claims as a breakaway province. The Data AnalysisXi Jinping had taken a firm tone before the meeting, declaring that 'Taiwan independence' and peace in the Taiwan strait were 'incompatible.' He warned Trump that if the Taiwan issue is not handled properly, it could lead to 'clashes and even conflicts' between the US and China. Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow with the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub, noted that Xi's tone was 'surprisingly firm for summit diplomacy,' signaling to Trump that Taiwan remains a sensitive issue for Beijing. The Impact AnalysisTaiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded swiftly to Xi's comments, stating that 'The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are not subordinate to one another.' Despite this customary sparring, Taipei is believed to be quietly pleased with the meeting's outcome, particularly Trump's silence on Taiwan. Analyst William Yang suggests that Taipei would welcome Taiwan being mentioned as little as possible, as any deviation from longstanding US policy could be seen as a negative development. The PredictionLooking ahead, experts predict that the US will continue to support Taiwan, particularly in terms of arms sales. The Trump administration has previously angered Beijing with a significant weapons package for Taiwan, and there are reports of another package worth around $14bn awaiting Trump's approval. With Taiwan's parliament recently passing a reduced defense budget to finance these purchases, there is added impetus for Trump to move forward with the deal.

The Lead: Summit Concludes Without Iran Breakthrough Donald Trump has claimed that the US and China "feel very similar" about ending the war in Iran but offered no details about a possible breakthrough during the final day of his summit with Xi Jinping in Beijing. The Diplomatic Stance: Shared Goals but No Clear Path "We did discuss Iran," Trump said. "We feel very similar about [how] we want it to end. We don't want them to have a nuclear weapon. We want the straits open." He added: "We want them [Iran] to get it ended because it's a crazy thing there, a little bit crazy. And it's no good, it can't happen." The Strategic Pressure: China's Role in Iran Crisis There is much speculation about how much pressure the US is putting on China, the biggest buyer of Iranian oil, to use its leverage with Iran to encourage the country to reopen the strait of Hormuz. US trade representative Jamieson Greer said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Friday that the Chinese "don't want to be on the wrong side" on the Iran issue. "It's really important for China to have the strait of Hormuz open," Greer said. The Economic Calculus: China's Energy Security Concerns About half of China's crude oil passes through the waterway, but the bigger threat for the Chinese economy is if the conflict in the Middle East causes a global recession that dents demand for its exports. However, many in Beijing feel that the crisis in Iran is not China's responsibility. The Public Statements: Contradictory Messages US Secretary of State Marco Rubio initially said the US hoped "to convince [China] to play a more active role in getting Iran to walk away from what they're doing now and trying to do now in the Persian Gulf." But later he downplayed the idea that the US was seeking support from Beijing. "We're not asking for China's help. We don't need their help," Rubio said. The Chinese Response: Cautious Diplomacy China's foreign ministry on Friday again called for a ceasefire in Iran and said the strait of Hormuz should be opened "as soon as possible." Zhou Bo, a retired senior army colonel and a senior fellow in the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University, said: "On Iran, China definitely wants to help but I read what Rubio said: he actually seems to shift the burden to the Chinese side. In China, we have a saying: it is like, 'Why should I clean your shit?'" The Official Readouts: Diplomatic Language The White House readout of the more than two hours of talks between Trump and Xi on Thursday said the leaders "agreed that the strait of Hormuz must remain open to support the free flow of energy" and that "President Xi also made clear China's opposition to the militarisation of the strait." The Chinese readout of the meeting just made a brief reference to the "situation in the Middle East." The Controversial Remark: Trump's PR Comment Trump raised eyebrows during a TV interview when he suggested that finding Iran's enriched uranium was primarily for show after Israel demanded it as a goal. "I just feel better if I got it, actually, but it's – I think, it's more for public relations than it is for anything else," the US president told Fox News host Sean Hannity. The Trade Deals: Symbolic Gestures Trump told Fox News that China agreed to buy US oil, soybeans and 200 Boeing planes. But on key issues including Taiwan, there seems to have been little by way of concrete agreement. Trump was heard saying on his way into the tea room at the Zhongnanhai garden that Xi was giving him roses for the Rose Garden, according to a White House pool report. The Strategic Balance: Shifting Power Dynamics Julian Gewirtz, a former director for China on the national security council during the Biden administration, said the new Chinese formulation about US-China relations was about "locking in this current phase of strategic stalemate for the remainder of Trump's term and ideally beyond." Wu Xinbo, a professor of international studies at Fudan University and a Chinese government adviser, said the balance of power between the US and China was "shifting towards greater parity." "In the past, it always seemed as though the United States held the upper hand, constantly exerting pressure on China and taking the offensive. Now, however, it's fair to say that the two countries have reached a new point of equilibrium," Wu said.

The Beijing Summit: A Stage for Trump's Authoritarian Aesthetic On the opening day of his visit to Beijing, Donald Trump embraced the rigid ceremony of the Great Hall of the People, offering a rare public endorsement of the host nation’s grandeur. Rather than delivering policy‑laden statements, he repeatedly described China as “beautiful,” positioning himself as a guest who respects the host’s symbols of power. Pageantry Over Policy: Symbolic Gestures That Dominated the Visit Military‑style arrival with martial music, a 21‑gun salute and troops marching in lockstep. Public applause for schoolchildren waving bouquets and US flags – a theatrical moment Trump highlighted in post‑event remarks. Reference to his own 2025 Washington birthday parade, drawing a parallel between American and Chinese displays of strength. Absence of a post‑flight interview or a Truth Social post, signaling an unusual circumspection. Silence on Taiwan: What the Absence of Commentary Signifies When reporters pressed Trump about the Taiwan question, he ignored the queries, allowing Xi Jinping to issue a stark warning that mishandling the issue could lead to “clashes or even conflicts.” The deliberate silence suggests a strategic avoidance of provocation, contrasting with Trump’s usual combative style. Implications for US‑China Relations and Domestic Perceptions The overt deference displayed in Beijing may reshape how allies and opponents view the former president’s foreign‑policy outlook. By aligning himself with the visual language of an authoritarian regime, Trump reinforces his long‑standing “strongman” narrative, potentially bolstering his appeal among domestic constituencies that favor decisive, hierarchical leadership. At the same time, the episode could complicate diplomatic calculations for both Washington and Beijing, as it blurs the line between personal spectacle and statecraft. Looking Ahead: Potential Paths for the Trump‑Xi Dynamic Future interactions will likely hinge on whether the two leaders can translate ceremonial goodwill into concrete agreements. If Trump continues to prioritize symbolism over substantive dialogue, the summit may remain a showcase rather than a catalyst for policy change. Conversely, any move toward substantive trade or security talks could signal a pragmatic shift, though the underlying authoritarian aesthetic is expected to persist as a defining feature of his diplomatic style.

Kylian Mbappe confirmed that Alvaro Arbeloa informed him he was the “fourth forward” in the squad, a statement that explained his bench role in Real Madrid’s 2‑0 victory over Real Oviedo on May 15, 2026. The revelation has intensified criticism from supporters and highlighted tension within a season already marked by managerial change and a title loss.Arbeloa Labels Mbappe Fourth-Choice Forward Ahead of Oviedo MatchAfter returning from a thigh issue, Mbappe entered the game as a 69th‑minute substitute, joining Jude Bellingham in the attacking line‑up. Arbeloa started Vinicius Junior, Franco Mastantuono and Gonzalo Garcia, leaving Mbappe out after nearly three weeks without competitive minutes. Mbappe told reporters, “I am very good, at 100 percent, I didn’t play because the coach told me that for him I’m the fourth forward of the squad, behind Mastantuono, Vinicius and Gonzalo.”Mbappe’s Season Stats Highlight the Bench Decision’s Weight41 goals in 42 appearances this season.Provided an assist for the second goal against Oviedo.Missed the Clasico, where Barcelona secured the La Liga title.The stark contrast between his prolific scoring record and his reduced role underscores the strategic gamble Arbeloa is making amid injury concerns.Potential Fallout for Real Madrid’s Title Hopes and Fan RelationsSupporters at the Santiago Bernabeu whistled Mbappe’s substitution, reflecting growing frustration over perceived lack of commitment and a recent holiday trip to Sardinia. The benching comes as Real Madrid faces a second consecutive season without a major trophy and an upcoming presidential election called by Florentino Perez. Arbeloa promised Mbappe a starting role in the next match on Sunday, attempting to quell dissent.What Lies Ahead for Mbappe and Real Madrid’s AttackIf Arbeloa follows through on his promise, Mbappe could reclaim his status as the primary striker, restoring balance to the forward line. However, continued fan pressure and internal scrutiny may force the club to reassess its tactical hierarchy, especially as the season winds down and the board evaluates long‑term plans for the squad.

The Trump‑Xi Beijing Summit on Hormuz Amid Iran’s WarDuring a high‑profile meeting in Beijing on May 15, 2026, President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping discussed the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz. The White House reported that Xi agreed the waterway “must remain open to support the free flow of energy,” a statement aimed at tempering market anxiety as the Iran‑Israel‑US conflict drags on.Trump emphasized that China would help keep Hormuz open but pledged not to supply military equipment to Iran.Xi reiterated China’s interest in stable energy routes, positioning Beijing as a neutral facilitator.Numbers Shaping the Conflict: Ship Transits and Market RipplesIranian media disclosed that more than 30 ships, including vessels linked to Chinese firms, were permitted to pass through Hormuz overnight, signalling Tehran’s willingness to showcase a “open to all commercial ships” policy.30+ ships transited Hormuz, a notable increase amid heightened tensions.Global energy markets reacted with modest volatility, reflecting investor concern over supply security.Geopolitical Shockwaves: BRICS Alignment and Regional TensionsAt a BRICS+ summit in New Delhi, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on member states to condemn the US‑Israel war, accusing the United Arab Emirates of direct involvement in aggression against Iran. Simultaneously, third‑round talks between Lebanese and Israeli negotiators continued in Washington, while Israel prepared a lawsuit against the New York Times over a controversial article.Iran urged BRICS to oppose “Western hegemony.”UAE was accused of active participation in the war.Lebanon‑Israel ceasefire talks remain fragile, with security guarantees and Hezbollah disarmament at stake.What Comes Next: Scenarios for Hormuz, BRICS, and the Iran WarAnalysts see three likely trajectories:Optimistic path: Continued China‑US cooperation keeps Hormuz open, BRICS adopts a neutral stance, and diplomatic pressure forces a ceasefire within weeks.Stalemate path: Hormuz remains technically open but faces intermittent closures, BRICS stays divided, and the conflict drags on, further destabilising energy markets.Escalation path: Any breach of Hormuz triggers a broader naval confrontation, drawing additional powers into the war and prompting severe economic fallout.Monitoring ship traffic, BRICS statements, and the outcome of the Washington‑based Lebanon‑Israel talks will be critical to gauge which scenario unfolds.