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Amid the escalating United States‑Israel confrontation with Iran, parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has emerged as an unexpected voice on financial strategy, posting a series of warnings on X that market‑moving headlines are often engineered to trigger profit‑taking. Ghalibaf’s core advice is simple yet provocative: if a headline inflates prices, bet against it; if it drags prices down, go long. He describes pre‑market news bursts as a “reverse indicator” designed to manipulate investors. His posts are laced with sarcasm, referencing alleged manipulation of oil futures and even joking about turning rhetoric into “actual fuel at the pump.” Behind the humor, analysts say, lies a calculated effort to exploit the overlap between digital propaganda and real‑world conflict. The backdrop to Ghalibaf’s messaging is Iran’s use of asymmetric warfare, notably the brief shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil and LNG shipments pass. The closure sent crude prices soaring and heightened economic pressure worldwide, underscoring Tehran’s ability to influence U.S. markets by targeting critical supply routes. On March 22, Ghalibaf warned financial institutions that support U.S. military financing in the Middle East, declaring that U.S. Treasury bonds are “soaked in Iranians’ blood” and that their portfolios were under surveillance. Economist Jo Michell of the University of the West of England observes that falling equity markets, rising energy costs, and higher interest rates could eventually force President Donald Trump to seek a diplomatic exit from the conflict. Michell notes that Trump often delivers his most aggressive statements over weekends when markets are closed, only to retreat before the opening bell—a pattern traders have dubbed TACO (“Trump always chickens out”). Indeed, when Trump’s original 48‑hour deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz loomed, he extended it by five days and later pledged a further 10‑day pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure, actions that analysts interpret as deliberate market signaling. Middle‑East specialist Zeidon Alkinani explains that the conflict’s volatility creates new leverage points beyond direct price manipulation. Even light‑hearted rhetoric from officials like Ghalibaf can exacerbate market instability, as investors scramble for any hint of the war’s trajectory. In this environment, uncertainty itself becomes a powerful market driver. Alkinani stresses that the significance of the Strait of Hormuz now extends beyond physical oil flow disruptions; it reshapes investor expectations and amplifies the impact of digital messaging, especially given Trump’s high‑visibility online presence. Overall, Ghalibaf’s social‑media campaign illustrates how Tehran is blending military pressure with information warfare, turning market sentiment into an additional front of the broader geopolitical struggle.

President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing a request for Arab countries to fund the U.S.–Israel war on Iran, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Monday. Leavitt said the president is "quite interested" in calling on regional partners to share the expense.The idea mirrors the financing arrangement of the 1990‑91 Gulf War, when a coalition of Arab and Western nations covered roughly 88% of the $61 billion cost, leaving the United States to foot only about 12%.Trump also hinted that, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, other export‑dependent partners should manage the crisis. The strait carries about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments; its shutdown has pushed Brent crude to **$116 per barrel**, up from pre‑war levels near **$65**.Iran, meanwhile, has demanded that the United States pay reparations to Iranian victims as a precondition for any cease‑fire.So far, there is no clear commitment from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members—countries that have themselves been hit by Iranian strikes—to finance the conflict. Analysts estimate the total bill could run into tens of billions of dollars, though exact figures remain uncertain.Experts note a shift in regional attitudes: GCC states opposed the war before it began and continue to call for diplomacy, according to Zeidon Alkinani of the Arab Perspectives Institute. He added that Israel appears to be the primary driver pushing the United States into the confrontation.History shows the United States has repeatedly sought external funding for wars it leads. During the Gulf War, Saudi Arabia contributed $16.8 billion (27% of total costs) and Kuwait $16 billion (26%). Japan, Germany, the UAE and South Korea also supplied sizable sums.Post‑World War II, the U.S. administered the Marshall Plan, providing over $13 billion to rebuild Europe, while Germany and Japan paid reparations and later funded the upkeep of U.S. bases—about $1 billion annually each.In the ongoing Ukraine war, the United States once delivered the largest aid package—€114.64 billion (≈$134 billion) by mid‑2025. Since Trump returned to office in 2025, he has withdrawn **99% of U.S. support**, shifting the financial load to European allies and turning the U.S. into a major arms supplier, with weapons sales reaching a record **$318.7 billion in 2024**. Recent deals, such as a $10 billion weapons package for Ukraine financed by European partners, illustrate this new model.These precedents underscore a pattern: when U.S. leadership faces costly overseas engagements, it often looks to allies—especially those with strategic interests—to share or assume the fiscal burden.

Oil prices have reached their highest level in nearly two weeks, with Brent crude rising over 3% to $116 a barrel on Monday morning. The surge comes amid escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, with Iran accusing the US of preparing for a ground invasion.The conflict has disrupted about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, plunging the world into its biggest energy crisis in decades. Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a nearly 60% rise in oil prices since the start of the war.Analysts warn that oil prices are likely to keep rising unless maritime traffic returns to normal levels in the strait. US President Donald Trump has threatened to 'obliterate' Iran's energy infrastructure if Tehran does not relinquish its stranglehold on the waterway by a deadline of April 6.Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, said energy consumers are only beginning to feel the true fallout of the turmoil, with Brent expected to rise towards $120 and beyond. The scale of the disruption has yet to be fully appreciated, with physical premiums at their highest ever.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim revealed in a televised address that Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian has allowed Malaysian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz with 'early clearance'. This development comes as the global energy market faces significant disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel.Anwar expressed gratitude to Pezeshkian for the clearance, which will enable Malaysian oil tankers and their crews to continue their journey home. While he did not specify the number of vessels cleared or the conditions for safe passage, he emphasized that Malaysia is working to secure the release of its ships and personnel.The Strait of Hormuz is a vital waterway, facilitating about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Iran has claimed the right to control the strait and has been responsible for several attacks on commercial vessels in the region. Despite Iran's assertion that the strait is open to non-aligned ships, there have been reports of Iranian authorities demanding tolls of up to $2 million for safe passage.Malaysia, a net energy exporter and one of the world's top LNG suppliers, imports nearly 70% of its crude oil from the Gulf region. Anwar noted that while Malaysia is better positioned than other nations due to its state-run oil and gas company Petronas, the country will still face impacts from the energy supply disruptions. To mitigate these effects, the government plans to implement fuel conservation measures, including reducing subsidized petrol quotas and encouraging civil servants to work from home.Anwar warned that food, fertilizer, and oil prices are likely to rise due to the disruptions. He emphasized that Malaysia is taking steps to address these challenges, adding that some countries are experiencing far worse impacts than Malaysia.

The ongoing United States-Israeli conflict with Iran has triggered severe disruptions to global LNG supplies in the Gulf, creating the most significant energy market disruptions in recent years. The critical Strait of Hormuz, through which 27 percent of the world's maritime oil trade and 20 percent of LNG shipments pass, has been brought to a near standstill.In response to the conflict, oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia have rerouted oil through alternative pipelines, while Qatar has completely halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities following attacks on its energy infrastructure. This disruption comes as natural gas makes up about a quarter of global energy consumption, raising widespread concerns about the impact on nations heavily reliant on gas imports.Natural gas is formed over millions of years from decomposed organic matter subjected to intense heat and pressure beneath the Earth's surface. LNG represents natural gas that has been cooled to -162 degrees Celsius through cryogenic processing, shrinking it to a 600th of its gaseous volume. In its liquid state, LNG is colorless, odorless, and non-flammable, making it safe and efficient to transport across vast distances.Before liquefaction, the gas undergoes purification through water-based solvents and molecular sieve beds to remove impurities including carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, water, and mercury. Heavier hydrocarbons are then separated from methane and ethane through fractionation. The resulting fuel is typically composed of 85 to 95 percent methane, with small amounts of ethane, propane, butane, and nitrogen.LNG is stored in large insulated tanks without requiring high-pressure infrastructure, then pumped onto double-hulled carriers for shipment to terminals worldwide. At destination facilities, LNG is heated using seawater or warm water baths until it vaporizes—a process known as regasification—before being distributed through pipelines for consumption.Once returned to a gaseous state, LNG serves multiple purposes globally. Residential applications include cooking, heating, and electricity generation, while supporting hot water systems in homes and heating for commercial buildings. In power generation, LNG offers a comparatively low-carbon alternative to coal and oil. Industrial applications span fertilizers, plastics, paints, and medicines, with LNG also used to fuel heavy-duty vehicles and ships.The disruption has particularly affected agricultural production, as Gulf nations export close to half the world's traded urea—a key fertilizer component. Natural gas serves as both the primary feedstock and fuel for fertilizer manufacturing, with the halt in production forcing producers across the region to suspend or reduce operations.While primarily valued as an energy source, LNG processing yields significant by-products with industrial and medical applications. The most notable is helium, extracted during cryogenic processing. With global helium production estimated at 180 million cubic meters annually, the disruption to Qatar's LNG facilities has removed approximately 5.2 million cubic meters from the market each month—accounting for about a third of global monthly production.Helium is critical for cooling superconducting magnets in MRI and CT scanners, with the average MRI machine requiring about 1,700 liters of liquid helium. The element is also vital to the data center industry, where it conducts heat away from silicon components, preventing damage to semiconductors. Additionally, the natural gas value chain generates petrochemical derivatives that serve as feedstock for manufactured goods, including medical-grade plastics.According to the International Gas Union's 2025 World LNG Report, 411.24 million tonnes of LNG were traded in 2024. The United States emerged as the largest exporter with 88.4 million tonnes, followed by Australia (81 million tonnes), Qatar (77.2 million tonnes), Russia (33.5 million tonnes), and Malaysia (27.7 million tonnes). Together, these top five suppliers account for more than three-quarters of global LNG supply.China was the largest importer with 78.6 million tonnes in 2024, followed by Japan (67.7 million tonnes), South Korea (47.1 million tonnes), India (26.1 million tonnes), and Taiwan (21.8 million tonnes). These top five importers constituted nearly 59 percent of all global LNG imports that year.South Asian nations face particularly severe risks from the current conflict. Pakistan, where natural gas accounts for 28 percent of electricity generation for its 250 million people, and Bangladesh, where gas supplies half of all electricity for its 176 million population, are heavily dependent on Gulf imports. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates supply approximately 99 percent of Pakistan's LNG imports and 72 percent of Bangladesh's.In response to the energy crisis, Pakistan has implemented emergency measures including a four-day workweek for government employees and extended school holidays. Bangladesh has reduced gas supplies and is seeking nearly $2 billion in international loans to fund energy inputs and maintain price stability. India, which relies on Gulf nations for about half of its LNG and generates 5 percent of its electricity from gas, has shifted toward coal usage as LNG disruptions continue.

The ongoing conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has created a significant disruption in the global helium supply chain, affecting approximately one-third of worldwide production. This critical resource, essential for both medical diagnostics and advanced manufacturing, faces unprecedented challenges as shipping restrictions and production halts impact markets worldwide.The disruption stems primarily from Qatar, the world's largest helium producer, which accounts for about 63 million cubic meters of the roughly 190 million cubic meters of helium produced globally annually. Following Iranian attacks on Qatari energy infrastructure, QatarEnergy has announced a 14% annual reduction in helium exports, citing damage to its LNG facilities that also produce helium as a byproduct.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint, has seen traffic nearly grind to a halt after Iranian officials announced new transit restrictions. This waterway serves as the primary export route for Qatar's helium, with no viable alternative maritime outlet available.The impact of this helium shortage extends across multiple sectors. MRI machines, which rely on helium's unique cooling properties, face potential operational delays, while the semiconductor industry—a cornerstone of modern technology—also depends on this irreplaceable resource for chip manufacturing. South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and China stand as the most vulnerable economies, being the largest consumers of Gulf-sourced helium.Market analysts project that helium prices could surge by 10-50% depending on the duration of the supply disruption, with buyers lacking long-term contracts experiencing the most immediate price increases. The medical industry, in particular, has been attempting to develop alternatives, including helium-free MRI technologies and helium recycling systems, though most current systems remain dependent on liquid helium.The United States, as the largest global helium producer at over 40% of worldwide supply, cannot fully compensate for the Gulf shortfall. Even North American consumers face challenges, with major distributors like Airgas already cutting shipments by half and parent company Air Liquide reallocating its supply chain to access helium from other regions.This helium crisis represents the fifth significant supply shortage since 2006, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains for critical industrial materials with no artificial substitutes. The situation underscores how geopolitical conflicts can have far-reaching consequences beyond traditional energy markets, potentially impacting healthcare accessibility and technological innovation worldwide.

The deadly conflict in Iran has precipitated what the International Energy Agency describes as the worst oil crisis in history, creating a complex situation for global clean energy efforts. While climate advocates are calling for accelerated transition away from fossil fuels, the war simultaneously presents both opportunities and significant challenges for renewable energy development.US-Israeli strikes on Iran have critically disrupted supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime channel through which 20% of global oil flows. The conflict has also seen direct attacks on fossil fuel infrastructure by all parties involved, creating additional market shocks and uncertainty.Interestingly, reduced reliance on oil and gas is proving beneficial for some regions navigating the ongoing fuel crisis. As Jan Rosenow, a professor of energy at Oxford University, explains: Electricity generated from wind and solar is largely insulated from fossil fuel price volatility – once built, the fuel is free.Countries with substantial renewable energy investments are demonstrating greater resilience. Spain and Portugal have witnessed electricity prices decline in recent weeks, while Pakistan has experienced a surge in rooftop solar installations over the past five years, helping the nation weather oil and gas market disruptions.The electric vehicle revolution is also providing some economies with protection against gasoline price increases. In China, more than 50% of all new cars sold are electric, while in Nepal, that figure reaches an impressive 70%.However, the war is creating near-term challenges that could impede clean energy growth. The conflict has disrupted transport routes for metals essential in solar panel construction, particularly aluminum. The Middle East accounts for approximately 9% of global aluminum production, and regional producers have begun scaling back operations amid the hostilities.Furthermore, the inflationary pressures stemming from the conflict pose significant hurdles for renewable energy projects, which require substantial upfront investment for construction, equipment, and installation.Paradoxically, the war and resulting energy shocks have provided a short-term boon for fossil fuels, including coal. Many Asian countries heavily reliant on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) are burning more coal to meet energy demand as LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz become constrained.The conflict has also incentivized increased oil and gas drilling and exploration, as countries scramble to replace disrupted LNG supplies and higher prices make previously unviable projects economically viable. US company Venture Global recently announced a new five-year contract to supply LNG, while Canadian energy company TC Energy indicated that Iran war disruptions are increasing the likelihood of expanding a massive LNG export facility.The Trump administration has further incentivized oil expansion, recently announcing plans to pay a French company $1 billion to abandon offshore wind farm projects in favor of fossil fuel initiatives.Experts propose various policy responses to encourage the green transition during this crisis. Rosenow advocates for tax reform to reduce the disproportionate burden on electricity compared to gas. Professor Gregor Semieniuk suggests imposing windfall taxes on oil and gas companies during the war, while Lauren Pagel of Earthworks calls for ending fossil fuel subsidies and making polluters pay for their environmental impact.Despite the current challenges, Kingsmill Bond, a strategist for the energy thinktank Ember, maintains that this crisis could ultimately accelerate the clean energy transition: This is the first oil shock in history where oil faces a superior alternative. Solar, wind and EV are cheaper, local, faster to deploy, and huge.

Iran has issued a stern warning that it will show 'zero restraint' if its energy infrastructure is attacked again. This comes in the wake of a retaliatory strike on Israel's critical South Pars gasfield, which provides 80% of Iran's natural gas needs.Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Iran's response to Israel's attack was a mere fraction of its capabilities, and that the only reason for restraint was respect for requested de-escalation. 'ZERO restraint if our infrastructures are struck again.'The conflict has significantly impacted Qatar's energy production, with 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity wiped out, resulting in an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue. The strikes have also threatened supplies to Europe and Asia.QatarEnergy's CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, revealed that repairs will sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years. He emphasized that the scale of the damage has set the region back 10 to 20 years.The situation has heightened tensions with Iran's Arab Gulf neighbors, who have condemned the strikes as a violation of international law. Iran has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies transit, driving soaring petrol prices and global concerns about rising inflation.

QatarEnergy has invoked force majeure on certain long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts, impacting customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. This decision comes as the company faces production and supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.The force majeure clause, commonly included in contracts, allows a party to be excused from its obligations under unforeseen circumstances. This is not an isolated incident, as petroleum companies in Kuwait and Bahrain have also recently invoked force majeure.The global energy market has been significantly affected since the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran on February 28. Iranian missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf region, have targeted crucial oil and gas facilities. These actions have led to international condemnation and have essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass.QatarEnergy's CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, recently reported that an Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facility resulted in the loss of about 17 percent of the country's LNG export capacity. This damage is expected to cause an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatens supplies to Europe and Asia. The repairs are anticipated to sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years.The conflict escalated after the Israeli military targeted Iran's offshore South Pars gasfield, prompting Qatar and other Gulf countries to condemn the attacks on energy infrastructure. These actions are viewed as threats to global energy security and violate international law and the United Nations Charter.