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Two planes of Iranian negotiators, many from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, arrived in Pakistan to confront a 21‑hour deadline for talks that span two decades of nuclear tension and new strategic concerns such as control of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. compensation for past attacks.The United States responded with a delegation that included Vice‑President JD Vance and roughly 300 officials, signaling a recognition that Iran’s seasoned team—featuring figures like Ali Bagheri Kani and former chief negotiator Abbas Araghchi—was well‑prepared.During the marathon, Vance held multiple conversations with former President Donald Trump and, notably, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Iranian officials claimed the Netanyahu call hardened the U.S. stance, underscoring the delicate diplomatic balance.Veteran negotiators Robert Malley and Aaron David Miller warned that the time frame was either too long for a mere reiteration of rejected demands or far too short for genuine negotiation, highlighting a strategic misreading of Tehran’s position.Vance concluded the session by presenting what he described as a “best and final offer,” leaving the door open for further dialogue pending Iranian acceptance.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump signaled an intention to impose a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a move that could inflate global oil prices and further destabilize the region.Iran’s objectives included drafting a memorandum of understanding to extend a tentative ceasefire and address three core issues: an end to Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, a governance framework for Hormuz shipping, and the disposition of its highly enriched uranium stockpile, whether through UN‑supervised down‑blending or export to a third party.Vance emphasized the need for an affirmative Iranian commitment not to pursue a nuclear weapon or the rapid pathways to one, a demand that intersects with ongoing debates about Iran’s sovereign right to enrich uranium—a capability currently null after recent U.S. strikes.In practice, Iran is already exercising selective control over Hormuz traffic, allowing 2 million barrels of Iraqi oil and 4 million barrels of Saudi oil to pass, a tactic described by an Iranian parliamentarian as a “continuous atomic bomb” that provides strategic depth.Beyond the diplomatic impasse, Iran confronts severe domestic challenges: hyperinflation approaching triple‑digit levels, an internet blackout threatening economic activity, and a political climate marked by assassination threats. These pressures compound the difficulty of achieving a sustainable peace settlement.

Saudi Arabia has halted operational activities at several energy facilities due to recent attacks, according to the Saudi Press Agency. The attacks targeted oil, gas, and electricity sites in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Yanbu Industrial City.The attacks resulted in the death of one Saudi national from the industrial security personnel of the Saudi energy company, with seven others injured. The attacks have reduced the kingdom's oil production capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day.The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, have faced repeated drone and missile attacks from Iran over recent weeks. These attacks have contributed to increased volatility in the oil market, affecting the security of supply for consuming countries.Oil prices have jumped upward as the world weighs the prospects of a shaky Iran-US ceasefire and possibly the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point that Iran has effectively blocked during the conflict.The ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, has been placed in doubt due to Israel's ongoing daily attacks on Lebanon and Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries. Several leaders around the world have called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.

The recent ceasefire between the United States and Iran may provide temporary relief, but the oil crisis triggered by their conflict is far from over. After 40 days of fighting, the two nations agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with negotiations set to begin in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad.One of the key points in Iran's 10-point proposal is allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20 percent of the world's oil and gas is shipped during peacetime. The strait has been effectively closed since the start of the war, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.Following the announcement, oil prices dropped to $92 on Wednesday, down from over $110 for much of the war. However, delays in restarting production and transport mean the energy crisis is far from over. For ships to continue operating, they need certainty about security during the next two weeks of the ceasefire.Even with the waterway reopened, it will take weeks for large oil tankers – now scattered thousands of miles away – to return to the Gulf to collect the millions of barrels sitting in large reservoirs. With very few tankers able to load or unload and their onshore storage full, producers began shutting wells, causing regional oil output to plummet despite efforts to reroute limited volumes via overland pipelines.Economists warn that the true impact on grocery bills will likely persist throughout 2026 and into 2027. Additionally, it will take years for the Gulf energy industry to repair facilities damaged or destroyed during the war.Shipping data shows that combined exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates fell from 469 million barrels in February to 263 million barrels in March – a decline of 206 million barrels, or 44 percent. Iraq's crude exports have been hit the hardest, falling 82 percent from 94m barrels in February to 17m in March.The 206 million barrels of Gulf oil lost since the start of the war would fill approximately 103 Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs), the workhorse supertankers of the global energy trade. A single VLCC stretches nearly 330 metres (1,080 feet) in length, nearly the same height as the Eiffel Tower in Paris.To put that in more practical terms, if you drove a pick-up truck that averages 24 miles per gallon (or 10 litres per 100km), one barrel of crude oil would carry you about 730km or 450 miles. That is about the distance from New York City to Cleveland, Ohio.For much of the war, oil has traded above $100 per barrel, hitting a peak of nearly $128 on April 2. The value of 206 million lost export barrels at various oil prices is significant, with Brent crude being the global benchmark.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

The recent ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a glimmer of hope for the energy crisis that has been exacerbated by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal's stability is already being questioned, with Iran claiming that Israel's attacks on Lebanon breach the agreement. Even if the ceasefire holds and hundreds of tankers stranded in the Gulf start to transit once more, analysts fear that it will not be enough to return the flow of oil, gas, chemicals, and other vital items to pre-crisis levels. An estimated 2,000 vessels with about 20,000 seafarers onboard have been trapped in the Gulf since the outbreak of the conflict. Shipping analysts and owners have cautioned that even a temporary ceasefire does not provide a sufficient guarantee that it is safe to make the passage, particularly because Iran's foreign minister has stated that transit will be under Iranian military management. Many questions remain for shipowners and their captains over whether it is safe to navigate through the strait. The disruption has been compounded by the forced shutdown of oil and gas production across the Gulf as storage facilities reached capacity. In addition, many key energy production sites have been damaged by drone attacks. Experts have said it could take months or years to fully restore the Gulf's energy production. Energy markets have fallen sharply on the hope that millions of barrels of crude oil and gas trapped in the Gulf could soon help to relieve a crisis that the International Energy Agency has said is more serious than the energy flashpoints in 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. However, traders are also expected to price in a continuing 'geopolitical risk premium' to reflect uncertainty over whether the ceasefire will hold.

Shell is poised to report a substantial increase in profits from its commodity trading activities in the first quarter, driven by recent market volatility sparked by the Iran crisis. The energy giant's chemicals and products unit, which encompasses its primary oil trading desk, is expected to see a significant boost in trading results.The company's trading windfall is particularly notable in its renewable energy division, with predicted earnings ranging from $200m to $700m in the first quarter, up from approximately $100m in the previous quarter. This surge is attributed to the historic price rises in oil and gas markets following Iran's retaliation to US-Israeli aggression, which included throttling energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz and launching strikes against key energy infrastructure in the Gulf region.However, Shell's gas production is expected to decline by about 5% to between 880,000 and 920,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, compared to 948,000 in the fourth quarter, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict on its assets in Qatar. A strike damaged Shell's assets at the Ras Laffan liquified natural gas (LNG) complex in Qatar, contributing to the expected decline.Despite these challenges, Shell's boss, Wael Sawan, has warned that Europe could face an energy and fuel shortage in April without a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The company is working with governments to address the oil and gas supply crisis, which has already led to energy rationing in some Asian countries.

Iran has issued a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in response to escalating tensions with the US. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iranian allies could shut the route, similar to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab al-Mandeb is a crucial passage for global oil trade, with 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passing through it in 2024, accounting for 5% of the global total. A closure of both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would block 25% of the world's oil and gas supply.The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region. During Israel's conflict in Gaza, the Houthis blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for ships associated with Israel or the US.A closure of the Bab al-Mandeb would have significant implications for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia and global container shipping from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. It could also exacerbate the ongoing global energy supply crisis.Experts warn that a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb would create a 'nightmare scenario,' disrupting trade toward Europe and potentially leading to a broader conflict in the region.

Recent developments have positioned Asia as the central arena of the global oil crisis, a shift driven by a confluence of rising consumption, supply-chain bottlenecks, and heightened geopolitical friction across the region.Demand for petroleum products in major Asian economies continues to outpace the limited output from traditional exporters, intensifying competition for scarce barrels. At the same time, regional disputes—particularly those affecting key maritime routes and production hubs—have compounded the supply shortfall, prompting governments and industry leaders to reassess energy strategies.Analysts warn that the crisis could ripple through global markets, inflating transport costs, squeezing manufacturing margins, and accelerating the push toward alternative energy sources. Policymakers are now under pressure to balance short‑term relief measures with longer‑term diversification plans to mitigate future vulnerabilities.While the situation remains fluid, the emergence of Asia as the crisis’s hotspot underscores the interconnected nature of modern energy systems and the urgent need for coordinated international responses.

Two weeks after the United States and Israel entered a direct conflict with Iran, the White House faced mounting criticism that the war would drive up fuel costs and anger voters. Former President Donald Trump attempted to calm concerns on Truth Social, noting that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and that higher prices translate into higher revenues for American companies. Now, five weeks into the hostilities, the reality is becoming clear: defense contractors and oil companies are the primary beneficiaries of the escalating energy market. The Department of Defense announced that Boeing will partner with Lockheed Martin to triple U.S. production of missile seekers, a move that sent Lockheed Martin’s stock up 25% since the start of the year. The announcement also lifted Boeing’s share price, underscoring how wartime procurement is boosting aerospace valuations. At the same time, Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas flows—has pushed U.S. crude from $65 to over $110 per barrel in just a month. Pump prices have mirrored this surge, breaking the $4‑a‑gallon barrier for the first time since 2022. Oil majors have responded with sharp stock gains; ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron have each risen more than 20% year‑to‑date. According to market‑research firm Rystad Energy, U.S. oil producers stand to earn an additional $63 billion as barrels trade above $100. “Oil prices in March have been materially higher than anyone expected, delivering a windfall for the vast majority of U.S. energy companies,” said Leo Mariani, senior analyst at Roth Capital Partners. The last comparable price shock occurred in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when U.S. gasoline peaked at $5 per gallon and inflation surged to 9%. That episode generated $916 billion in global oil‑and‑gas profits, with U.S. firms accounting for $281 billion. Chevron’s subsequent $75 billion stock‑buyback program—seven times its prior year’s amount—illustrates how quickly companies can translate price spikes into shareholder returns. Research by economists Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella Weber revealed that in 2022, 50% of oil‑company profits went to the top 1% of Americans, while the bottom half of the wealth distribution captured just 1% of those gains. Analysts warn that the current conflict could generate even larger windfalls because it has damaged actual production capacity in the Middle East, not merely reshuffled supply. “You’re benefiting a lot more from higher prices than you are from lost production,” Mariani noted, emphasizing the outsized profit potential. Even if hostilities cease, restoring pre‑conflict output in the region may take months, prolonging the supply crunch. As senior fellow Clay Seagle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, the current situation differs from 2022: “Now we’re dealing with a much more severe supply event because the oil has been actually removed from the market.” Prolonged high prices could eventually curb demand, as consumers and businesses seek alternatives—a shift seen after the 1970s oil shocks when the U.S. moved away from oil‑generated electricity. Nonetheless, many sectors remain vulnerable: diesel, a key fuel for trucks and aircraft, has risen 40%, and airline stocks such as United and American have fallen more than 15% since the year began. Moreover, disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production threaten fertilizer supplies essential for agriculture. Semieniuk cautions that “we’re approaching the kinds of disruption levels we saw in 2022, and with that, the kinds of profits that we saw there. If this takes longer, it’s going to surpass that.”