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Parts of Asia are already feeling the strain of the Iran war, with fuel supplies tightening and prices rising. Some countries are warning that their stocks may run out, revealing just how fragile the global energy system is.The impact of the war is being felt far from the battlefield, with the threat to oil flows causing immediate concern. This has raised questions about the resilience of the global energy system and its ability to withstand geopolitical tensions.Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of Research and Strategy at the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, provides insight into the situation.

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Ukraine has made significant gains on the battlefield, halving the Russian rate of advance in the past three months and reclaiming 470sq km of occupied territory this year. The country's military has also dealt a major blow to Russia's oil export capacity, striking key terminals and refineries, including Ust-Luga and Primorsk, which account for about 60% of Russia's oil export capacity.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured agreements with several Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, to export Ukrainian drone know-how in return for joint drone production support. This has enabled Ukraine to increase its drone production and effectively counter Russian advances.The Ukrainian military has also targeted Russian munitions production, striking the Promsintez explosives plant in the Samara region, which produces 30,000 tonnes of military explosives annually. According to estimates, Russia has lost 45% of its missile production capacity due to Ukrainian strikes.In response to Ukrainian attacks, Russia has begun to extend its drone strikes throughout the day, imitating Iran's tactics against the US and Israel. However, Ukraine has successfully shot down over 90% of the drones launched by Russia.

Former Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Tehran to declare victory and pursue a diplomatic settlement after a rapid escalation of hostilities between Washington and Tehran. U.S. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. military has not even started dismantling what remains of Iran’s infrastructure, a statement made in the wake of a strike that demolished the country’s largest bridge. In retaliation, Iran’s armed forces cautioned that they would destroy U.S. regional assets if the United States and Israel intensify their attacks, signaling a willingness to broaden the conflict. Tehran’s latest wave of strikes hit a desalination plant in Kuwait and the Habshan gas facility in the United Arab Emirates, extending the battlefield across the Gulf region. Analysts interpret Zarif’s call for a victory proclamation as a strategic pivot toward seeking a negotiated deal, even as military rhetoric on both sides remains fierce.

The conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran is now spilling onto academic grounds. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) publicly warned U.S. universities in nearby nations following weekend attacks on two Iranian campuses.According to Tehran‑based sources, at least 21 Iranian universities have sustained damage since the war erupted. The targeting of educational institutions marks a troubling escalation, raising questions about the strategic value of universities in modern warfare.In a recent podcast episode, Setareh Sadeqi, an assistant professor at the University of Tehran, discusses the motivations behind these strikes and the broader implications for Iran’s higher‑education sector. The program, produced by Al Jazeera’s AJ E Podcasts team, also explores how the “war on Iran” is extending beyond traditional battlefields into classrooms and research labs.Key takeaways include the IRGC’s threat to retaliate against U.S. institutions, the potential impact on international academic collaborations, and the symbolic message that disrupting knowledge hubs can weaken a nation’s resilience.Listeners can follow the discussion on X, Instagram, Facebook, or YouTube via @AJEPodcasts.

The destruction of a US E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft in an Iranian strike on a Saudi Arabian airbase has raised significant questions about how a critical surveillance asset was left unprotected and how Iran managed to launch such a precise direct strike.The plane was one of only 16 operational E-3s, which first entered production in the 1960s and carry sophisticated monitoring equipment allowing them to detect airborne threats such as missiles while surveilling assigned battle spaces including communications, troop movements, and air defense sites.The attack that destroyed the aircraft on March 27, while it was parked at Prince Sultan airbase, demonstrated Iran's continuing ability to strike high-value targets in the region despite a month of US and Israeli air raids.Images from the scene show a direct strike on the E-3's radar dome near the tail, suggesting a high degree of accuracy in the attack. The strike also injured US servicemen and damaged several in-flight refuelling aircraft.Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that Ukrainian intelligence had information indicating a Russian spy satellite photographed the base three times before the attack—on March 20, 23, and 25. Zelenskyy explained that multiple satellite images typically indicate preparation for an imminent attack.Zelenskyy's comments follow reports that Moscow was providing intelligence to Iran on the location of US forces in the Middle East, a claim denied by Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.The destroyed E-3 was one of six such aircraft deployed to the Saudi Arabian base. These aging aircraft have long suffered from maintenance issues, with the US Air Force's E-3s reportedly having a mission-capable rate of only about 56% in 2024.The E-3 can track up to 600 targets simultaneously over a large area, acting as the eyes and ears for fighter pilots. The loss of this particular E-3 is considered incredibly problematic, as these aircraft serve as crucial battle managers for airspace deconfliction, aircraft coordination, targeting, and providing other lethal effects needed for battlefield operations.While US and Israeli commanders have claimed a decrease in Iran's missile capabilities, experts had anticipated a reduction in Tehran's launch intensity as it conserves military resources. Some analysts suggest Iran may be targeting key enablers of US airpower as part of a deliberate campaign following initial successes by the US and Israel in controlling Iranian airspace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has concluded defence agreements with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, focusing on joint expertise in countering threats from missiles and drones. The agreements were made during Zelenskyy's visit to Doha and the UAE earlier in the day. The defence pact with Qatar includes collaboration in technological fields, development of joint investments, and the exchange of expertise in countering missiles and unmanned aerial systems. This move comes as Iran continues to attack its Gulf neighbours, with Tehran insisting it targets only US assets in retaliation for the US-Israeli war on Iran. Ukraine has deployed 201 anti-drone experts to the Middle East to help Gulf nations counter Iranian drones. Kyiv has proposed swapping its interceptors for the more expensive air-defence missiles used by Gulf countries to down Iranian drones. Ukraine needs these missiles to fend off near-daily Russian missile attacks. The agreements highlight Ukraine's growing role as a leading producer of sophisticated, battlefield-proven drone interceptors. The country's expertise in downing Russian drones, which have been attacking Kyiv since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, is seen as a cost-effective solution for Gulf nations. For instance, Ukraine's interceptors cost around $2,000 each, compared to the $4 million cost of a Patriot missile. Zelenskyy's diplomatic tour aims to secure funding and technology in return for Middle East support. The US-Israeli war on Iran has depleted Patriot missile stocks, which concerns Ukraine as it needs these missiles to counter Russian ballistic missiles.

In a significant development that underscores the evolving nature of modern conflict, Iran has begun placing messages directly on its missiles, marking a new frontier in the global war of narratives. This strategy represents a sophisticated blend of military capability and psychological operations, designed to communicate political statements while showcasing technological prowess. The practice of inscribing messages on missiles appears to be part of Iran's broader strategy to project strength and assert its position in regional power dynamics. By combining military demonstrations with ideological messaging, Tehran is attempting to shape international perceptions while deterring potential adversaries. This development comes amid intensifying information warfare between Iran and Western powers, with both sides employing increasingly sophisticated methods to influence global public opinion. The use of missiles as communication platforms represents an escalation in this conflict, transforming conventional weapons into instruments of strategic communication and psychological influence. Analysts suggest that Iran's missile messaging serves multiple purposes: demonstrating technological advancement, asserting regional dominance, and communicating directly with domestic and international audiences. The messages often contain political slogans, religious references, or threats against perceived enemies, creating a powerful visual impact when shared through state media. The trend reflects a broader shift in modern warfare where the information domain has become as crucial as the physical battlefield. Nations are increasingly recognizing that shaping narratives can be as strategically important as military capabilities themselves, particularly in conflicts where direct confrontation carries significant risks. As this practice continues to evolve, it raises important questions about the future of deterrence strategy and the boundaries of psychological operations in international relations. The convergence of military hardware and information technology suggests that we may see further innovations in how states communicate their intentions and capabilities in an increasingly complex global security environment.

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has expanded into Iraqi territory, creating what analysts describe as the most fragile front in the ongoing regional war. Recent strikes by US and Israeli forces have targeted Iran-backed groups operating within Iraq, prompting retaliatory attacks from Iraqi militias against Western interests. The strategic implications of this escalation are profound, with oil flow through the critical Strait of Hormuz completely halted, disrupting global energy markets. This development comes as Iraq's central government already struggles to maintain control over its territory and resources. As hostilities intensify, concerns mount about Iraq's ability to preserve its sovereignty and prevent the country from becoming a battlefield for proxy conflicts between regional and international powers. The fragile state of Iraqi institutions, combined with external military interventions, threatens to destabilize an already volatile region. International observers warn that the prolonged conflict could have lasting consequences for Iraq's political landscape, potentially fragmenting the country further along sectarian lines and weakening the central government's authority beyond recognition. The situation remains fluid, with diplomatic efforts seemingly unable to de-escalate tensions as the conflict enters a dangerous new phase with direct military confrontation on Iraqi soil.