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The UK's manufacturing sector has been hit by the sharpest rise in cost inflation since Black Wednesday in 1992, as the conflict in the Middle East drives up oil prices and disrupts supply chains. According to the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), cost inflation in manufacturing jumped to its highest level since October 2022, marking the largest month-on-month change since 1992.The rapid increases in costs mainly relate to fuel, transportation, and energy-intensive raw materials. The composite PMI index, covering services and manufacturing, stood at 51, suggesting the economy is still expanding, but at a sharply slower pace than the 53.7 seen in February.Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P; Global Market Intelligence, said: "Output growth across manufacturing and services has slowed to a crawl as companies blamed lost business directly on the events in the Middle East, whether through heightened risk aversion among customers, surging price pressures, higher interest rates, or via travel and supply chain disruptions."The CBI's survey of the retail sector also showed the fastest annual decline in sales volumes since April 2020, with the balance of retailers reporting rising sales at -52% in March, down from -43% in February.Martin Sartorius, lead economist at the CBI, said: "Retailers report that weak economic conditions continue to weigh on household spending, with subdued activity also evident across the broader distribution sector."Emily Sawicz, a director and industrials senior analyst at RSM UK, said: "Despite some resilience, geopolitical tensions remain a key concern for UK manufacturers – underscoring that conditions remain highly uncertain. The recovery many hoped to see take hold in 2026 now appears likely to be delayed at best, as rising energy costs and persistent inflation risks threaten to slow momentum."

UK ministers have issued a stern warning that increasing North Sea drilling would leave the country vulnerable to the fluctuations of fossil fuel markets. This cautionary stance comes as the Conservatives and some Labour MPs are advocating for a reversal of the manifesto commitment to not issue new oil and gas licences.Energy Minister Michael Shanks emphasized that the UK is learning from past conflicts to avoid exposure to fossil fuels, which have previously led to households bearing the brunt of price hikes. The government's focus is on clean power to achieve energy sovereignty and national security.Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to outline plans to protect people from higher energy bills caused by the US-Iran conflict. The plans include measures to clamp down on price gouging, especially by petrol retailers responding to the conflict.Ed Miliband, the energy secretary, stressed that dependence on fossil fuel markets makes the UK a price taker, not a price maker. He argued that new licences in the North Sea would not affect prices and that scrapping the windfall tax would only increase energy company profits.The Labour Party has raised concerns about the impact of increased drilling on the environment and the economy. Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, argued that turning away from domestic gas would be detrimental, especially during a gas supply crisis.The government spokesperson highlighted the importance of £120bn of public investment in building homegrown energy, including nuclear power projects, to protect working people's bills for generations to come.

The UK government has rejected a call from the Offshore Energies UK trade body to boost North Sea oil and gas production, despite warnings that the UK will become increasingly reliant on imports at a time of rising global instability.The industry group has urged the government to take action to slow the decline of the North Sea as a provider of energy, citing concerns that consumers will be left more exposed to global volatility and higher emissions if domestic production is not increased.The warning comes as the war in the Middle East has triggered the biggest oil and gas supply shock in the history of the market, causing UK gas prices to more than double in under a month.A government spokesperson said that issuing new licences to explore new fields cannot guarantee energy security and will not reduce bills, adding that the only way to truly protect against price spikes is to get off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets.The decline of the North Sea oil and gas basin means that the UK's reliance on gas imports is likely to increase sharply from about 14% last year to more than a quarter of its gas supply by 2030, and almost half by 2035.David Whitehouse, the chief executive of Offshore Energies UK, argued that energy security means backing homegrown oil and gas alongside renewables, and that a stable new tax regime for the industry is essential to reduce reliance on volatile imports and protect skilled jobs.

The conflict in Iran has sparked concerns about a potential global food crisis due to a looming shortage of fertiliser, a crucial component in food production. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, has been disrupted, impacting the export of fertilisers from Gulf countries.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the Strait of Hormuz was 'closed', causing oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel. However, experts warn that a parallel crisis is emerging - a considerable threat to global food security due to a shortage of fertiliser.Nearly half of the world's traded urea, the most widely used fertiliser, and large volumes of other fertilisers are exported from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions to gas supplies and shipping have already forced fertiliser plants in the Gulf and beyond to shut or cut their output.Countries such as India, Brazil, and China are heavily dependent on Gulf fertiliser exports, with India sourcing over 40% of its urea and phosphate fertilisers from the region. A prolonged fertiliser shortage and hike in fertiliser prices could lead to reduced crop yields, affecting food security worldwide.The urea export prices from the Middle East have surged by about 40%, rising from just less than $500 to a little more than $700 per metric tonne. The price is currently close to 60% higher than this time last year.According to one shipping services company, 20% of the world's fertiliser originates in the Gulf, while 46% of global urea supply comes from the Gulf. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world's largest urea supplier, alone supplies 14% of the world's urea.Analysis by Kpler, a data and analytics company, shows that as much as one-third of global fertiliser trade could be disrupted if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists. This could lead to nitrogen fertiliser prices doubling and phosphate prices climbing by about 50%.

Japan has initiated the release of oil from its emergency reserves in response to the escalating global energy crisis triggered by the Iran-Israel conflict. The crisis has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies.The decision to release oil reserves was announced on Monday through a notice published in the Japanese government's official gazette. This move follows Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's announcement last week to unilaterally release 80 million barrels of oil from stockpiles due to supply concerns arising from Iran's threats against shipping in the strait.The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also pledged to coordinate the release of a record 400 million barrels to mitigate the market impact of the conflict. Despite these efforts, oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising as much as 3% on Sunday before easing slightly on Monday. As of 05:45 GMT, Brent stood at $104.85 a barrel, marking a more than 40% increase since the start of the war on February 28.Japan, being one of the world's largest oil importers, relies on overseas fossil fuels for about 80% of its energy needs. The country also holds one of the world's largest oil reserves, sufficient to meet 254 days of domestic consumption. Tokyo has stated it has no plans to deploy its navy to the strait following a call from US President Donald Trump for other countries to help unblock the waterway.

Oil prices are continuing to rise as markets see no end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The critical waterway, which usually transports about one-fifth of the global oil supply, has been brought to a standstill by Iran in retaliation for US and Israeli strikes on the country.Brent crude, the most important benchmark for global prices, rose as much as 3 percent on Sunday to top $106 a barrel, before easing slightly early on Monday to $104.63 a barrel, up nearly 1.5 percent. This represents a more than 40 percent increase in global oil prices since the start of the war.US President Donald Trump has called on other countries to help Washington reopen the Strait, but his proposal has received a muted response. None of the countries he appealed to by name – including China, Japan, France, and the UK – have publicly committed to deploying their navies to secure the strait. Japan and Australia have both stated they have no plans to send ships to the critical waterway.The closure of the strait has resulted in what the International Energy Agency has called the largest disruption to global energy supplies in history. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre, no more than five ships have passed through the strait each day since the start of the war, compared with a historical average of 138 daily transits. At least 16 commercial vessels have been attacked in the region since the war began on February 28.Trump has repeatedly stated he is willing to deploy the US Navy to escort commercial shipping through the strait if necessary. However, Trump administration officials have said that warships will not be deployed to the waterway until Tehran's military capacity has been further degraded.

US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause in attacks on Iran's power infrastructure for five days. The move comes after Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the critical shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz or risk US attacks on its power plants.Iran's Response to US Ultimatum: Iran threatened to attack power plants in Israel and the Gulf if its own power plants were targeted. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) stated that it would hit power plants in Israel as well as any supplying electricity to military bases hosting US troops and assets in the region.Potential Targets: Iran could target Israeli power plants, including Orot Rabin north of Tel Aviv, with a capacity of around 3,900 megawatts, and Rutenberg in Ashkelon, with a capacity of around 2,250 megawatts. Iran also mentioned that it would target financial entities that finance US military assets, including US Treasury bonds.Energy Infrastructure: Iran's attacks on energy infrastructure in the Gulf have already had significant impacts. Qatar's state-run energy firm, QatarEnergy, halted LNG production following Iranian attacks on its operational facilities, causing an estimated $20bn in lost annual revenue. Saudi Arabia also shut down operations at the Ras Tanura plant, its biggest domestic oil refinery.Financial and Corporate Entities: Iran could target large US companies with Israeli links, including Google, Microsoft, Palantir, IBM, Nvidia, and Oracle. Iranian officials also mentioned that they would target US Treasury bonds and entities that finance US military assets.Other Critical Infrastructure: Iran's foreign minister accused the US of striking a desalination plant on Qeshm Island off the coast of Iran, cutting off the water supply to 30 villages. Bahrain also reported that an Iranian drone caused material damage to one of its desalination plants.

The Trump administration has formally opposed Anthropic's legal challenge, arguing that the Pentagon's decision to blacklist the AI firm was both lawful and necessary for national security. In a court filing submitted on Tuesday, the Justice Department contended that Anthropic’s refusal to remove guardrails preventing its technology from being used in autonomous weapons and domestic surveillance constituted conduct rather than protected speech.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth designated Anthropic, the creator of the Claude AI assistant, a "national security supply chain risk" on March 3. This move effectively excludes the company from a limited set of military contracts. The administration’s legal team asserts that the dispute is rooted in contract negotiations and national security imperatives, not retaliation. They argue that no constitutional rights were violated because the government did not restrict the company's expressive activities.However, legal experts suggest Anthropic may have a strong case regarding potential overreach. The company is currently challenging the Pentagon's decision in California federal court. The implications of this conflict extend beyond the courtroom; Anthropic executives have warned that the blacklisting could cause billions of dollars in losses this year and severely damage the company's reputation.In a statement, Anthropic emphasized its commitment to national security while acknowledging the necessity of the lawsuit to protect its business interests and partners. The company is also pursuing a separate legal challenge in a Washington, DC, appeals court regarding a broader supply chain risk designation.

Cuba has successfully restored its power grid and brought its largest oil-fired power plant back online, ending a 29-hour nationwide blackout that affected the country's 10 million people. The blackout, which began on Monday, was caused by a combination of factors, including a US oil blockade that has severely impacted Cuba's fuel supply.The country's national power grid had fully come back online by 6:11 pm (22:11 GMT) on Tuesday. However, officials have warned that power shortages may continue due to insufficient electricity generation. The Antonio Guiteras power plant, a decades-old facility that underpins the country's power grid, was successfully fired up by midday on Tuesday.The US oil blockade, imposed by President Donald Trump, has had a significant impact on Cuba's economy and daily life. The blockade has restricted Cuba's access to oil imports, leading to dire fuel shortages and antiquated power plants struggling to meet demand. As a result, most Cubans, including those in Havana, have been experiencing 16 or more hours of blackout daily even before the latest grid collapse.The situation has led to heightened tensions between Cuba and the US, with Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel criticizing the US's "almost daily public threats against Cuba." The US State Department has blamed the Cuban government for the grid collapse, calling blackouts a "symptom of the failing regime's incompetence." Despite the challenges, Cubans have shown resilience, with many residents staying calm and adapting to the difficult circumstances.Cuba and the US have opened talks aimed at defusing the crisis, which is among the most acute since 1959. However, neither side has provided details of the ongoing negotiations. The situation remains a significant challenge for both countries, with the Cuban people bearing the brunt of the impact.