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The International Monetary Fund has announced that the United Kingdom will grow 0.5 percentage points slower this year than it forecast in January, marking the steepest downgrade among the G7 economies. Against the backdrop of the escalating Iran war, the IMF warned that inflation is climbing toward 4% and that unemployment could hit its highest level in more than ten years, underscoring the widening economic strain on Britain. Labour Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to attend the IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where she must navigate both the geopolitical fallout of a conflict not of the UK's making and a domestic fiscal squeeze. Even before the war, the UK entered the year with tepid growth, hampered by lingering tax uncertainties and a cost‑of‑living crisis that left households facing the highest inflation rates in the G7. IMF economic counsellor Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas highlighted that the country's weak outlook is partly a “shadow effect” of its already sluggish growth, compounded by the war’s impact on global energy supplies—the biggest shock since the 1970s. The United Kingdom’s energy mix remains heavily dependent on gas, much of which is now imported at sharply higher market prices. As Gourinchas explained, higher gas costs are being passed through to wholesale energy prices, even though temporary household protections are in place. Reeves has signalled that her immediate priority at the IMF will be to advocate for de‑escalation of the Iran conflict. At the same time, she must contend with a public‑finance situation characterized by elevated debt and rising borrowing costs, limiting the government’s capacity to respond. Given the pressure on consumers and Labour’s lagging poll numbers ahead of the May local elections, the IMF expects the UK to roll out targeted emergency financial support in the short term. Looking further ahead, the fund urges Britain to insulate itself from future energy shocks by accelerating investment in renewable sources and fostering sustainable economic growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that a further escalation in the Iran war could lead to a global recession, spiralling inflation, and a sharp backlash in financial markets. The Washington-based fund cited the economic damage from the Middle East conflict as steadily rising, prompting it to cut its growth forecasts for 2026.In its half-yearly update, the IMF predicted that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year. Even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026, the fund warned of a close call for a global recession under a worst-case 'severe scenario'.This severe scenario, involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, would see the world face a global recession for only the fifth time since 1980. Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that despite a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and downside risks remain elevated.The IMF set out three possible scenarios for the war in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), including a central 'reference forecast' based on the assumption that disruption to the world economy from the war fades by mid-2026. This forecast predicts global growth would fall from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points.Under the adverse scenario, with the global oil price remaining at $100 this year before falling back to $75 in 2027, growth would fall to 2.5% this year, and inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the severe scenario, with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027, global growth would collapse to about 2%, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession.The IMF urged countries to stage a coordinated response to the economic fallout from the war and called on central banks to remain vigilant. It also advised governments to focus on temporary and targeted measures to support businesses and households.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports in the Gulf has taken effect, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran. The blockade, which began on Monday at 5:30 pm Iranian time, applies to any ships entering or departing Iranian ports or coastal areas.US Central Command (Centcom) did not make a formal announcement, but the move is seen as a test of economic endurance for both nations. The blockade aims to restrict Iran's oil exports and imports, potentially costing the country approximately $276 million a day in lost exports and disrupting $159 million a day in imports, according to Miad Maleki, a former US treasury official.Iran has warned that the blockade will lead to higher petrol prices, which could impact ordinary Americans. The country's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, taunted the US, saying Americans would soon be nostalgic for $4-$5 gas. The current average petrol price in the US is $4.13 a gallon, up from $2.98 before the conflict began.The conflict has also drawn in other nations, with France planning to organize a conference to create a multinational mission to restore navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. However, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, and Greece have ruled out sending naval forces to support the blockade. The UK has also stated that it does not support the blockade and will not be drawn into the war.The situation remains volatile, with Iran threatening to retaliate if its ports are threatened, and the US warning that any Iranian attack boats approaching the US flotilla will be "immediately eliminated". The conflict has also sparked a war of words between US President Donald Trump and Pope Leo XIV, with the pope condemning the use of religious language to justify the war in Iran.

In a forceful statement released on Monday, a panel of 13 United Nations experts demanded that Israel halt all attacks on displaced Palestinians sheltering in Gaza and cease the accelerating forced‑displacement campaign in the occupied West Bank. Israeli air strikes in March set fire to tents housing Gaza’s internally displaced people, causing numerous fatalities, the experts noted, describing the tactic as part of a broader strategy to make life untenable for Palestinians. “This cycle of displacement, terror, and targeted attacks serves an ultimate purpose: to make life unbearable for Palestinians and permanently force them from their land,” the panel declared, underscoring the systematic nature of the violence. The experts warned that the targeting of makeshift shelters violates international humanitarian law and amounts to a grave breach, given that the majority of Gaza’s population has already endured multiple forced transfers. Beyond the immediate danger of bombardment, civilians living in tents face severe health threats—including hunger, exposure to freezing temperatures, flooding, and a lack of basic services. Women and children, the panel stressed, bear a disproportionate share of deprivation. Turning to the West Bank, the panel condemned what it described as a “sharp escalation in forced displacement” driven by the Israeli army and “state‑backed settler terrorism.” Daily attacks have resulted in killings, injuries, and the widespread destruction of homes, farmland, and livelihoods. According to a 2025 report from the UN Human Rights Office, more than 36,000 Palestinians have been forcibly displaced amid the expansion of illegal settlements, a figure the experts say illustrates a broader policy of ethnic cleansing across the occupied Palestinian territory. The panel urged Israel to end all forced‑displacement activities in the West Bank and to facilitate the safe return of those uprooted. It also called on the international community to uphold its legal obligations, launch independent investigations, and refrain from providing assistance that could enable the continuation of the occupation. The 13‑member panel includes UN special rapporteurs such as Francesca Albanese (occupied Palestinian territory), Paula Gaviria Betancur (rights of internally displaced persons), Michael Fakhri (right to food), and Reem Alsalem (violence against women and girls).

The situation in Lebanon remains volatile as Israeli strikes continue, prompting concerns of further escalation in the region. Despite these developments, efforts towards diplomacy are underway, with talks scheduled in an attempt to mitigate the conflict.The ongoing conflict between Lebanon and Israel has been a point of contention for years, with periods of relative calm often punctuated by outbreaks of violence. The current escalation is a stark reminder of the fragile peace in the region and the need for sustained diplomatic efforts.International observers are closely monitoring the situation, hoping that the scheduled talks will lead to a de-escalation of tensions and a return to stability for the people of Lebanon and the broader region.

The European Union has issued a stern warning that peace in the region is impossible while Lebanon is gripped by crisis. The statement comes amid escalating tensions and instability in the country.According to the EU, the ongoing turmoil in Lebanon poses a significant threat to regional peace and stability. The international community has been closely monitoring the developments in Lebanon, with many expressing concerns over the potential for further escalation.The EU's statement underscores the complexity of the situation in Lebanon and the need for a peaceful resolution to the crisis. The organization has called for calm and restraint from all parties involved, emphasizing the importance of finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have resulted in at least six fatalities, according to state media reports. The Israeli military claims to have surrounded the main town of Bint Jbeil, a strategic location in the conflict with Hezbollah.The state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported that one person was killed and nine others injured in an airstrike on the town of Bazouriyeh. Additionally, Israeli air strikes killed one person in Nabatiyeh El Faouqa and three others in Sir el Gharbiyeh and Choukine.The Israeli military also struck a centre of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Tyre, resulting in one injury that later died. Several Red Cross vehicles were damaged in the attack.The Israeli army announced it will have full operational control of Bint Jbeil within days, after claiming to have killed more than 100 Hezbollah fighters there over the past week. Hezbollah has been engaged in fierce fighting with Israeli forces in Bint Jbeil, a town that has been a symbolic and strategic flashpoint in confrontations between the two.Diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict are underway, with Israeli and Lebanese officials set to hold talks in Washington to end the war. Lebanon's culture minister, Ghassan Salame, emphasized the government's focus on securing an immediate halt to hostilities before any peace talks with Israel.Since Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon on March 2, at least 2,055 people have been killed and over 6,550 others injured. The escalation in Bint Jbeil comes as Hezbollah continues to engage in clashes with Israeli forces, with the group reporting intense clashes on Sunday.

The United States, led by President Donald Trump, has announced its intention to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies, in a significant escalation of tensions with Iran. This move comes after talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad failed to yield an agreement.In a social media post, Trump stated that the US Navy would begin the process of blockading any and all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade, which commenced at 10am Washington, DC, time (14:00 GMT) on Monday, has sparked concerns about the status of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced last week.Analysts view Trump’s threat as a substantial escalation in the war on Iran. Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York, noted that Trump is using the blockade as a tool in negotiations with Iran, aiming to pressure the country to comply with US goals.The blockade could have far-reaching implications for global energy markets, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Iran has allowed ships from certain countries to pass through the strait during the conflict, but a blockade could disrupt these supplies.Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at City St George’s, University of London, described the US actions as “sanctions with warships doing the bidding of President Trump,” rather than a classic blockade. He raised concerns about the legality of such actions under international maritime law, noting that the US is not a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.The international community remains divided on the issue, with the United Kingdom stating it will not support the blockade and China urging calm. The blockade’s impact on Iranian mines in the strait and shipping operations remains uncertain, with potential consequences for global energy security and the economy.

The United States has imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions between the two countries. The blockade, announced by President Donald Trump, aims to restrict Iran's access to international trade and oil exports.Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, criticized the move, stating that it would only harm the international economy. "Can an illegal 'war of choice' be won through a 'revenge of choice' against the global economy?!" he posted on social media.Trump warned Iranian military ships against approaching the blockade zone, stating that they would be "immediately ELIMINATED" if they came close. The blockade, which came into effect on Monday, risks setting the stage for a major escalation that could fray a two-week ceasefire between the two countries.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre announced that the US blockade would apply "without distinction" to ships engaging with Iranian ports and oil terminals. The restrictions encompass the entirety of the Iranian coastline, including the ports and energy infrastructure.Iranian officials have accused the US of violating the truce by allowing Israel to continue to bomb and conduct a ground invasion in Lebanon. Pakistan, which mediated the ceasefire, had said all regional fronts – including Lebanon – were part of the deal.While Trump's move to blockade Iran's ports could hamper the already ailing Iranian economy, it is unlikely to loosen the Iranian grip on Hormuz or bring down energy prices. The average price of one gallon of petrol in the US is now more than $4.12, up from less than $3 before the war began.Iran has promised to defend its territorial waters, saying the naval siege amounts to "piracy". The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRG) also warned that if fighting were to resume, Iran would introduce new capabilities to the battlefield.