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The UK is bracing for possible gaps on supermarket shelves this summer as the ongoing conflict in Iran threatens to disrupt carbon dioxide (CO2) supplies, a critical component in the food industry. CO2 is essential for the humane slaughter of livestock, packaging of fresh meats and produce, and production of fizzy drinks and beer.Government ministers are reportedly drawing up contingency plans for a 'reasonable worst-case scenario' if the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane, remains closed. This could lead to shortages of CO2, impacting supplies of chicken, pork, and fizzy drinks.The business secretary, Peter Kyle, has reassured the public that ministers are making contingency plans to deal with possible consequences of the Iran war. The government has invested £100m to reopen the mothballed Ensus bioethanol plant on Teesside to mitigate potential CO2 shortages.The CEO of Tesco, Ken Murphy, has expressed confidence in the company's ability to manage supply chains, stating that they have 'seen nothing at this point' in terms of problems within their supply chain caused by CO2 availability issues. However, the UK is one of Europe's largest users of CO2, and any disruption could have significant impacts on the food industry and beyond.

The prospect of a renewed U.S. oil blockade has sparked concerns across Havana’s tobacco fields, where the cigar industry remains a cultural and economic cornerstone. Analysts warn that restricting oil supplies could disrupt the energy‑intensive processes essential for curing, rolling, and transporting premium cigars, potentially undermining production volumes and export revenues. Cuba’s cigar sector accounts for a significant share of the island’s foreign‑exchange earnings, with premium brands commanding premium prices in markets worldwide. A sustained energy shortage would not only raise operational costs but could also force producers to scale back output or seek alternative, less efficient energy sources, eroding the competitive edge that Cuban cigars have long enjoyed. Beyond the immediate economic impact, the blockade could deepen existing tensions in U.S.-Cuba relations. The move may be interpreted as a strategic lever to pressure the Cuban government, yet it also risks alienating stakeholders in the global tobacco trade and could invite retaliatory measures. While the full extent of the blockade’s effect remains uncertain, experts stress that any disruption to the cigar supply chain would reverberate through related sectors—tourism, agriculture, and logistics—exacerbating the island’s broader fiscal challenges. Policymakers on both sides are therefore urged to weigh the economic costs against geopolitical objectives before implementing such a measure.

President Donald Trump declared that the war with Iran is "very close to over," even as Washington maintains a naval blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz. In Washington, D.C., Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors convened for uncommon direct talks, seeking a cease‑fire while Israel pressed for Hezbollah’s disarmament. Trump also hinted at a possible second round of negotiations with Tehran, suggesting talks could resume in Pakistan within days. The United States, however, is set to let a temporary sanctions waiver on stranded Iranian oil expire, tightening economic pressure on Tehran. The International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies delivered its first shipment of medical supplies and humanitarian aid into Iran since hostilities began, offering a modest lifeline to civilians. Inside Tehran, minor explosions caused limited damage and injuries, underscoring ongoing instability. Iran estimates its war‑related losses at $270 billion and plans to seek reparations. On the diplomatic front, the United Nations' IAEA chief Rafael Grossi noted that the duration of any uranium‑enrichment moratorium would be a political decision, reflecting the delicate balance of future negotiations. In the United States, the Senate is poised to vote as early as Wednesday on a Democratic initiative to restrict the president’s war powers, signaling growing congressional scrutiny of the conflict. Former defence official David Sedney warned that the Hormuz blockade is backfiring, increasing pressure on Washington as global trade routes are disrupted and domestic support wanes. Meanwhile, CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper affirmed that the blockade of Iranian ports is fully operational and that U.S. forces retain maritime superiority in the region. President Trump publicly rebuked Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni for not joining U.S. actions against Iran, describing her stance as lacking courage. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that American forces will intercept Chinese tankers carrying Iranian oil through the Hormuz Strait, effectively cutting off Iran’s oil exports while allowing non‑Iranian cargo to pass. Israel has proposed a long‑term troop presence extending up to 8 km into southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is dismantled, and continues air strikes aimed at encircling the strategic town of Bint Jbeil. Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman highlighted a growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli priorities, noting Israel’s heightened concern over Iran’s ballistic‑missile program. In Lebanon, Israeli raids have resulted in multiple civilian casualties, with reports of villages being razed in a manner likened to Gaza. Hezbollah has rejected the ongoing Israel‑Lebanon talks, while public opinion remains split between hopes for peace and opposition to negotiations. The International Monetary Fund warned that any further escalation could push the global economy toward recession. It cut its 2026 growth forecast for the Middle East and North Africa to 1.1 % from 3.9 %, citing disruptions to Gulf oil and gas exports. On the markets, stock indices rose while oil prices slipped, reflecting renewed optimism for a diplomatic resolution and the reopening of the Hormuz Strait.

The United States military announced on Tuesday that a missile strike carried out by U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) killed four people aboard a stationary vessel in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The attack, captured in a video showing a boat engulfed in flames, represents the fourth lethal engagement in the region within a four‑day span. SOUTHCOM, which oversees U.S. operations across Latin America and the Caribbean, labeled the deceased as “narco‑terrorists.” No evidence was provided to substantiate this claim, and the command offered only vague intelligence indicating the boat was traveling along known drug‑trafficking routes. This latest strike raises the cumulative death toll from the campaign to at least 175 individuals since early September, when former President Donald Trump authorized the operation to disrupt alleged cartel shipments to the United States. In the preceding 48 hours, two people were killed in a Monday strike and five more in two separate Saturday attacks, also targeting vessels in the eastern Pacific. The U.S. Coast Guard has reportedly halted the search for a survivor from the Saturday incidents. International legal scholars and human‑rights organizations argue that the U.S. actions constitute extrajudicial killings in international waters, often targeting civilian fishing boats rather than confirmed drug‑smuggling vessels. Legal experts stress that, even if some boats are involved in narcotics transport, the appropriate response should be prosecution under the rule of law, not lethal force. Critics also highlight the limited impact of the strikes on the U.S. fentanyl crisis, noting that the majority of the drug enters the United States via overland routes from Mexico, with precursors sourced from China and India. As the controversy deepens, questions linger about the legality, efficacy, and broader geopolitical ramifications of the U.S. maritime campaign against alleged narco‑terrorist activity in the Pacific.

Gray whales have historically been a rare sight in the San Francisco Bay. They migrate over 10,000 miles from Mexico's Baja California to the Arctic region, seldom stopping in the busy shipping corridor for prolonged periods. However, in recent years, this has changed in a dire way.A new study published in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science has found that gray whales in the bay have been dying at alarming rates, largely due to collisions with vessels. Eastern North Pacific (ENP) gray whales began to appear more frequently in the well-trafficked maritime corridor around 2018.According to researchers, at least 18% of gray whales that entered the bay from 2018 to 2025 have died. They determined that for more than 40% of the whale carcasses, the cause of death was blunt force trauma consistent with vessel strikes, prompting calls for renewed efforts to help avoid more fatal collisions.“It was historically very unusual for them to enter the bay, especially for longer amounts of time or consistently year after year,” said Josie Slaathaug, lead author of the study. There are whale subgroups known to hunt for food south of the Arctic, but a majority of the recently spotted whales feeding in the bay were not a part of these foraging clusters.A wave of new whale presence had not been observed in the waters since the late 1990s. Researchers have theorized that Arctic warming is disrupting food availability for the whales, driving them to hunt in new places such as the bay, although it remains unclear what exactly they may be eating there.Their potential new feeding corner, though, is a major shipping route. The true mortality rate for whales in the bay may be higher, hovering somewhere from 40% to 50%, Slaathaug said.In recent years, there have been several reports of dead whales that wash up on Bay Area beaches. The ENP gray whale population has been in decline due to malnutrition and starvation from climate-driven prey shifts in the Arctic. The Southwest Fisheries Science Center estimated a population total of about 13,000 whales, its lowest count since 1970.“It’s not unique to their migratory corridor that a lot of whales are dying,” Slaathaug said. “What is unique about San Francisco Bay and this study was that there was such a clear emerging cause of death.”Some local efforts are under way to reduce vessel collisions. The Marine Mammal Center has developed a program called Whale Smart, to educate vessel operators in the San Francisco Bay on how to interpret whale behavior to avoid close encounters.In Alaska, where vessels also pose a threat to the whale population, one fleet company partnered with WhaleSpotter, a company that uses AI and thermal imaging to detect the presence of whales, so they can change course well in advance.Last year, the Center for Biological Diversity, a conservation group, sued the US Coast Guard, which regulates vessel traffic off the California coast, for failing to analyze how vessel routes may harm whales and sea turtles.“This most recent study about the gray whales reaffirms that we have way underestimated the problem and we are not managing human activities well enough to avoid the whales,” said Catherine Kilduff, senior attorney at the center.Federal action is needed to reduce the fatal collisions, Kilduff said. According to the Endangered Species Act, the coast guard should be consulting with the National Marine Fisheries Service when setting shipping lanes to assess impact to marine wildlife.Kilduff also suggested mandatory speed limits for vessels. “There are voluntary speed reductions on the west coast, but there is evidence that those aren’t effective. The compliance rate isn’t high enough,” she said.A 2022 study co-authored by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that the average speeds of large vessels had decreased from 2010 to 2019 in voluntary speed reduction zones. But, researchers determined that the cooperation rate of roughly 50% was lower than the amount needed to reduce vessel strike-related mortality to a level that maintains a sustainable whale population.“These whales are using the oceans in such a sophisticated way. We can learn so much from them, and if we can figure out ways to avoid killing them, I know that they’ll come back to healthy population levels,” Kilduff said.

The future of the LIV Golf series hangs in the balance after Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) signaled a possible withdrawal of its multi‑billion‑dollar support. Executives were summoned to a high‑stakes meeting in New York this week, a development that follows growing speculation that the rebel tour could be shut down. While the fifth season’s sixth event in Mexico City is set to proceed on Thursday, the tournament is being eclipsed by reports that PIF intends to cut the tour’s funding. The tour has already faced challenges securing a merger with the PGA Tour despite a three‑year “framework agreement,” and the funding pull would exacerbate its financial strain. According to the PIF’s newly released five‑year economic strategy, the fund is prioritising sustainable domestic investments and has omitted sport from its seven key focus areas. This shift signals a move away from the “free‑spending, disruptive internationalism” that characterised the launch of LIV Golf in 2021. Since its inception, PIF has poured over $5 bn into the tour, but this year prize money and bonus payouts have already been slashed. High‑profile players such as Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, Sergio García and Bryson DeChambeau initially defected from the PGA and DP World Tours, yet recent defections back to the PGA—including Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed—highlight the tour’s precarious position. DeChambeau has yet to sign a new contract. A source familiar with the Saudi Ministry of Sports confirmed that the fund is redirecting its sports budget toward football and esports, with golf no longer a priority. The same source noted that PIF is ending its partnership with the Women’s Tennis Association, and the three‑year WTA Finals deal in Riyadh will not be renewed after its November expiry. The rumours ignited on Tuesday after journalist Ryan French posted on X that multiple sources warned of a “bombshell announcement” on LIV’s future, later suggesting the tour might be shutting down. LIV officials and players have not received any formal update. In Mexico, Sergio García told reporters they have only heard the same message from PIF chief Yasir al‑Rumayyan at the start of the year: that the project is a long‑term commitment, and that rumours are inevitable. Technical glitches, including an alleged power failure at the venue, forced the cancellation of pre‑tournament press conferences on Tuesday. Nevertheless, the pro‑am competition resumed on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. local time, indicating that day‑to‑day operations continue despite the uncertainty. The outcome of the New York meeting could determine whether LIV Golf survives as a viable alternative to traditional tours or becomes another casualty of shifting Saudi investment priorities.

In the first three months of 2026, the United States’ six biggest banks collectively generated $47.4 bn in net profit, edging close to the $50 bn mark. The earnings surge reflects a sharp rise in trading activity as market participants scrambled for safety after the US‑Israeli offensive against Iran sparked a wave of volatility. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley led the pack with profit jumps of 17% and 30% respectively, while Goldman Sachs posted a 19% increase. JPMorgan Chase reported a 13% rise to $16.5 bn, Citi posted a striking 42% jump to $5.8 bn, and Wells Fargo added a modest 7% gain to reach $5.3 bn. Chief Executive David Solomon of Goldman Sachs described the results as a “very strong performance … even as market conditions became more volatile,” noting that the shift in client behavior toward cash‑preserving strategies boosted fee‑based trading revenue. Meanwhile, Bank of America’s CEO Brian Moynihan cautioned that the board remains “watchful of evolving risks,” acknowledging the broader uncertainty surrounding the Middle‑East conflict. The conflict has disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy prices higher and feeding inflationary pressures. The International Monetary Fund responded by trimming its 2026 US growth forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.3%, warning that a deeper escalation could trigger a global recession, especially for net energy importers and developing economies. Higher borrowing costs and inflation expectations have dampened demand for loans and mortgages, potentially curbing future investment‑banking fees tied to mergers and acquisitions. Yet, the immediate impact on trading desks has been lucrative, prompting banks to return cash to shareholders. JPMorgan set a quarterly record with a $8.3 bn share‑buyback, Bank of America followed with $7.2 bn, Citi spent $6.3 bn—its biggest buyback in two decades—while Goldman, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley allocated $5 bn, $4 bn and $1.8 bn respectively. Analysts view the earnings surge as a short‑term windfall that may not be sustainable if the geopolitical tension persists. Prolonged conflict could suppress corporate earnings, reduce merger activity, and ultimately erode the trading‑driven profit model that has underpinned this quarter’s success.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a warning that a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a major energy crisis. The strait, located between Iran and Oman, is a critical passage for global oil shipments, making it a vital artery for the world's energy supplies.A disruption in this region could have significant implications for the global economy, potentially leading to higher oil prices and increased volatility in energy markets. The IMF's warning underscores the importance of maintaining stability in this critical region.

Cuba is on the brink of transforming its energy landscape with a bold plan to invest $8bn in renewable energy, which could reduce its reliance on fossil fuels and pave the way for energy independence from the US. The proposal, put forth by the Common Wealth thinktank's Transition Security Project (TSP), suggests that this investment could cover 93.4% of Cuba's electricity generation needs.The US has imposed a crippling energy blockade on Cuba, severely limiting the island nation's access to oil. Since January, Cuba has received only one shipment of oil, from Russia, and its national electric grid has collapsed, leading to repeated blackouts and widespread disruptions.The TSP analysis outlines four different scenarios for Cuba's transition to renewable energy, with costs ranging from $5bn to $19.2bn. The most ambitious proposal would see three-quarters of electricity generation provided by solar power, with wind, hydropower, and bioenergy making up the remainder.The report argues that electricity costs would decrease in every renewable investment scenario, with the cost per unit of energy falling from 14.3¢ per kWh in the baseline scenario to 6.5¢ with $8bn of investment. The transition would require a society-wide transformation, but Cuba has demonstrated its ability to adapt in the past, such as its rapid shift to agroecology and self-sufficiency in the 1990s.The question remains: who would pay for this transition? The report suggests that financing should be understood as "reparative climate finance", with Cubans able to pay back investments through savings on cheaper energy. The transformation would not only benefit Cuba but also set an important example of a rapid energy transition under conditions of external constraint.