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War‑Driven Surge Pushes U.S. Pump Prices Above $4.50 Since the U.S. and Israel struck Iran in late February, the national average gasoline price has climbed to $4.55 per gallon (as of 22 May), roughly $1.50 higher than the pre‑conflict level. The spike reflects a 53 % increase in retail fuel costs, according to data from the Guardian’s interactive chart. Quantifying the Shock: Key Price and Supply Metrics $4.55 – current national average gasoline price (22 May 2026). $3.00 – approximate pre‑war baseline. 53 % – price rise since the first U.S.–Israeli strikes. 20 million barrels per day – share of global seaborne crude that transits the Strait of Hormuz (≈25 % of world trade). 30‑60 days – typical time to turn a barrel of crude into finished fuel. Why Prices Won’t Normalize Even If Hostilities End Tomorrow Energy analysts Denton Cinquegrana (Dow Jones Energy) and David Ruisard (Argus Media) stress that the bottleneck is not just the price of crude but the physical state of Gulf infrastructure. Even an undamaged well requires weeks to restart, and large crude carriers move at only about 13 knots, meaning a full backlog could take three to five weeks to clear. Furthermore, the region’s refineries need time to heat up and resume processing, while logistics for repositioning tankers add additional delays. As a result, industry estimates for a return to pre‑war price levels range from six months to two years. Broader Economic Ripple Effects The sustained “war premium” on fuel is feeding inflation and shaping political sentiment, as reflected in recent polls showing a historic backlash against President Trump. Higher pump prices also pressure other transport fuels: diesel remains tight, and jet fuel spikes have forced European airlines to adjust routes, though Ryanair’s CEO Michael O’Leary notes a modest easing as alternative supplies arrive. Despite the cost, travel demand stays strong—AAA projects 45 million Americans will take a Memorial Day trip, potentially setting a new record. Outlook: Volatility Through Summer, Gradual Normalization Post‑Conflict If the Strait of Hormuz reopens immediately, analysts expect summer gasoline prices to settle in the mid‑to‑upper $3 range. If the chokepoint stays closed, prices could creep toward $5 per gallon and possibly set new records. Both Patrick De Haan (GasBuddy) and Cinquegrana agree that any short‑term dip after a peace announcement would be fleeting, driven more by sentiment than fundamentals. Long‑term, countries hit hardest by the shock—such as Pakistan, India, South Korea and Japan—are likely to build strategic reserves, adding a structural floor to demand. In short, even a rapid diplomatic resolution will not erase the supply‑chain lag, and U.S. drivers should brace for elevated fuel costs well into 2027.

The first North Korean club to tour the South in eight years capped the trip with a 1‑0 victory over Japan’s Tokyo Verdy Beleza, lifting the Asian Women’s Champions League trophy in Suwon.Naegohyang FC Secures Historic Asian Women’s Champions League TriumphNaegohyang Women’s FC clinched the title thanks to captain Kim Kyong Yong’s decisive goal just before half‑time. The win follows a 2‑1 semi‑final victory over Suwon FC Women, marking a rare North‑South club showdown.Ticket Demand and Spectator Dynamics Highlight Regional Interest7,087 general‑admission tickets for the semi‑final sold out within hours.Final‑match tickets remained partially unsold, leaving noticeable gaps in the stadium.Approximately 3,000 spectators from South Korean civic groups attended, backed by the unification ministry.No official North Korean supporters were present due to travel restrictions.Implications for North Korean Women’s Football on the Global StageNorth Korea now ranks 11th in the FIFA women’s world rankings, far above its men’s side (118th). The victory guarantees a berth in next year’s FIFA Women’s Champions Cup, offering exposure to global competition.Future Outlook: Path to the FIFA Women’s Champions CupWith the Asian title secured, Naegohyang will prepare for the upcoming international tournament, where they will face elite clubs from Europe, South America and Africa. Success could elevate the profile of North Korean women’s football and foster further sporting exchanges across the Korean peninsula.

The acting Navy secretary Hung Cao told a Senate committee that the United States is temporarily pausing a $14 bn arms sale to Taiwan to ensure sufficient munitions for the Iran operation dubbed Epic Fury. The disclosure, coupled with a Washington Post report on interceptor usage, has sparked concerns that the U.S. may be exhausting its strategic missile stockpiles faster than they can be replenished. Senate Hearing Highlights $14 bn Taiwan Sale Pause and Iran‑War Munitions Demand During the hearing, Cao emphasized that the pause is a precaution, not a sign of a critical shortage, stating the U.S. has “plenty” of munitions for Epic Fury. Yet his own remarks underscored a broader tension: while officials publicly project confidence, internal data suggest a rapid drawdown of high‑value weapons used against Iran. Interceptors and Tomahawks: The Scale of US Depletion THAAD interceptors: >200 launched – roughly 50% of the U.S. inventory. SM‑3/SM‑6 missiles: >100 deployed. Tomahawk cruise missiles: >1,000 used out of an estimated 3,100. Overall, seven critical munitions saw more than half of their pre‑war stockpiles expended, according to a CSIS report dated April 21. Strategic Ripple Effects for Allies and Future Theaters The depletion has immediate implications for U.S. partners. Japan and South Korea, which rely on American missile‑defence systems, face heightened risk if the supply chain cannot keep pace. Gulf allies also worry about reduced availability of Patriot and THAAD systems should the Iran conflict reignite. Moreover, the same interceptors are needed for potential Indo‑Pacific contingencies involving China, amplifying the strategic stakes. Rebuilding the Arsenal: Timeline and Policy Choices Analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies and CSIS warn that restoring pre‑war levels for the seven most‑depleted munitions will require “one to four years” as production pipelines catch up. Factors such as supply‑chain bottlenecks, skilled‑labor shortages, and rare‑earth material constraints slow the ramp‑up. Until capacity improves, U.S. planners must factor stockpile depth into escalation calculations, potentially limiting the frequency or intensity of future strikes.

The World Cup AbsencesThe world's best football players will travel to North America this summer for the most anticipated sporting event of the year: the FIFA World Cup 2026. While the 48-team tournament will feature young prodigies and veterans alike, some stars will not be at the tournament, having missed out due to injuries or because their nations failed to qualify.Stars Who Missed QualificationSeveral high-profile players will not be at the World Cup because their countries failed to secure qualification. Among them are:Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Georgia) - The Paris Saint-Germain winger, one of the most feared in European football, will not be on the plane to North America as Georgia failed to qualify.Robert Lewandowski (Poland) - The 37-year-old Barcelona striker left the pitch in tears after Poland narrowly missed out on qualification. With 89 goals in 165 appearances for Poland, he has never advanced beyond the round of 16 at a World Cup.Gianluigi Donnarumma and Sandro Tonali (Italy) - Italy's failure to qualify for the World Cup for a third consecutive time means the tournament will be devoid of some of the finest Azzurri talents, including the star goalkeeper and midfielder.Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) - Nigeria's shock penalty shootout defeat to the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the African playoffs means fans will miss out on watching these two bright attackers.Bryan Mbeumo (Cameroon) - Cameroon's failure to qualify came as a surprise as the Indomitable Lions hold the African record for the most World Cup appearances with eight overall.Injury-Related AbsencesSeveral players who would have likely been selected for their national teams have been ruled out due to injuries:Hugo Ekitike (France) - The France forward ruptured his Achilles tendon while playing for Liverpool against PSG in April, an injury that could sideline him until January 2027.Estevao (Brazil) - The 19-year-old suffered a grade four hamstring injury while playing for Chelsea in April, crushing his dream of making his World Cup debut.Rodrygo (Brazil) - The Real Madrid winger suffered a torn meniscus and ACL in his right knee while playing for Madrid in March and is expected to be out until the end of 2026.Xavi Simons (Netherlands) - The attacking midfielder suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury while playing for Tottenham Hotspur against Wolverhampton Wanderers.Other Notable AbsencesSeveral other high-profile players will also miss the tournament:Fermin Lopez (Spain) - Misses out after requiring surgery on a fracture in his right foot.Serge Gnabry (Germany) - Ruled out with a torn adductor muscle in his right thigh.Cole Palmer and Phil Foden (England) - Omitted from England's squad after both had disappointing seasons.Takumi Minamino and Kaoru Mitoma (Japan) - Minamino was left out after suffering an ACL tear while Mitoma also misses out after suffering a hamstring injury.Eder Militao, Joao Pedro, and Richarlison (Brazil) - All dropped from Brazil's squad due to injuries.Jan Oblak (Slovenia) - The goalkeeper and captain will be absent after Slovenia failed to qualify.Dominik Szoboszlai (Hungary) - Faces a similar fate after Hungary missed out on qualification.

Lead: Rising Anxiety Over Balikatan’s Expanding FootprintAs the three‑week Balikatan 2026 drills wind down, Filipino clergy, activists and lawmakers warn that the scale of the U.S.–Philippines war games is moving the prospect of conflict ever closer to home.Balikatan 2026: Scale and Composition of the Joint ExercisesThe annual joint exercises, held across the archipelago, featured the biggest turnout to date:More than 17,000 soldiers from six allied nations.The United States contributed roughly 10,000 troops, with additional forces from Canada, Japan, Australia, France and New Zealand.Operations intensified in Ilocos Norte, a province only 345 km south of Taiwan, where armored vehicles, drones and live‑fire drills were conducted.Local residents reported constant tank movements, loud gunfire and a “pit in the throat” feeling among civilians who regularly see U.S. troops on their highways.Financial and Operational Metrics Highlight US CommitmentBetween 2015‑2022, Washington delivered over $1.14 bn in military equipment to the Philippines.In December 2025, the U.S. Congress approved an additional $2.5 bn in security assistance through 2030.The U.S. deployed the Typhon missile system in Ilocos Norte, capable of launching Tomahawk and SM‑6 missiles.For the first time, a Tomahawk missile was fired during the drills, traveling 600 km from Tacloban to Nueva Ecija.Local Communities and Regional Tensions Feel the StrainBeyond the geopolitical signaling, the exercises have tangible socioeconomic impacts:A “no‑sail zone” was enforced for up to 11 days, restricting fishing activities.Approximately 4,800 fisherfolk in Subic Bay (Zambales) reported loss of livelihood.Protests erupted at the Philippine military headquarters and the U.S. Embassy, with groups like Bayan and the Makabayan Coalition denouncing the drills as a provocation.China continues to contest the South China Sea, maintaining claims over 90 % of the waters, heightening the risk of accidental clashes.Outlook: How Future Drills May Shape Southeast Asian Security DynamicsExperts warn that the shift from internal security to external defence in Balikatan signals a broader U.S. strategy to project power simultaneously in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. If the exercises continue to expand, the Philippines could become a permanent “forward base and launchpad,” increasing its exposure to retaliation from U.S. adversaries and deepening regional polarization. Continued local opposition and economic disruption may pressure Manila to renegotiate the terms of foreign military presence, but strategic imperatives tied to the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement suggest the partnership will likely endure, albeit with growing domestic scrutiny.

The Lead: Rubio's Diplomatic Mission to IndiaUnited States Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to India on Saturday for a three-day visit taking in Kolkata, Agra, Jaipur and New Delhi. He will discuss energy security, trade and defence cooperation with senior Indian officials, US State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott said in a statement on Tuesday.The visit comes as relations between US President Donald Trump and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi continue to fluctuate, making Rubio's diplomatic mission particularly significant in the current geopolitical landscape.The Quad Context: Strategic Alignment in the Indo-PacificRubio is spending a few days in India ahead of a meeting of foreign ministers from the informal Quad security forum comprising the US, Japan, Australia and India in New Delhi on May 26. The Quad, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, has been referred to as "the Asian version of NATO". It was formed as a response to the rising power of China and has carried out joint military and naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific region.Rubio's meeting with other leaders of the Quad will also be seen as a sign of the US reaffirming its commitment to the Indo-Pacific region, which has become increasingly important in global geopolitics.The Economic Leverage: Adani Case and Russian Oil SanctionsRubio's visit comes days after the Trump administration moved to dismiss US criminal fraud charges against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani in a case in which he is accused of bribing Indian officials with as much as $265m to secure contracts and of lying to US investors to secure a solar energy project in India, allegations that his company has long denied.The case was dropped by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) after Adani pledged a $10bn investment in the US. In an X post on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced another 30-day extension of a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil to aid "energy-vulnerable" countries hit by the Iran war, reversing plans not to grant an extension.This extension has temporarily eased pressure on major Russian oil buyers such as India, which has previously faced US criticism for its reliance on discounted Russian crude.The Regional Impact: US Balancing Act Between India and PakistanRubio's visit comes after months of improving relations between the US and Pakistan, India's arch enemy. In April last year, India and Pakistan became embroiled in armed conflict after attackers killed 26 people in Pahalgam, a popular tourist spot in Indian-administered Kashmir. Following the Pahalgam attack, New Delhi scaled back diplomatic ties with Islamabad and suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.On May 7, India struck nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir with missiles, which Islamabad said killed dozens of civilians. A ceasefire – for which Trump claimed credit – was eventually brokered on May 10. However, tensions between the South Asian neighbours continue to simmer."PM Modi told President Trump clearly that during this period, there was no talk at any stage on subjects like India-US trade deal or US mediation between India and Pakistan," Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said last June.The Future Outlook: Navigating Complex Geopolitical WatersAnalysts say that Rubio's visit to India is part of Washington's attempt to mend bilateral ties with New Delhi following tension between Trump and Modi last year. Sadanand Dhume, senior fellow for India, Pakistan and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations (CEFR), wrote in an article for the CEFR website on Thursday that Rubio is going to India in "repair" mode.Last October, Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran told The Wire: "The 25-year upward trajectory of India-US relations has certainly plateaued, if not started declining". The coming months will be crucial in determining whether Rubio's visit can successfully reset the relationship or if the current tensions will continue to define US-India relations.

The Lead: Japan's World Cup AmbitionsJapan have been late bloomers in terms of World Cups, only reaching the tournament for the first time in 1998 – but since then they have been at every edition. While they have never gotten past the last 16, their current crop of players is surely the most talented in the national side's history.Statement Victory: Japan's Rising International StatusJapan were the first team – outside the hosts – to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The Samurai Blue have beaten Germany, Brazil, England and Spain since 2022. Their recent 1-0 win at Wembley against England in March, courtesy of a Kaoru Mitoma goal, sent a clear statement about their growing international prowess.Key Players: Mitoma's Absence and Kubo's PromiseJapan's preparations were dealt a blow with star player Kaoru Mitoma missing the tournament due to a hamstring injury. However, Japanese right-winger Takefusa Kubo has promised to fill the void. The 24-year-old has had a fantastic season at Real Sociedad, where he has tormented the best defences of La Liga and helped his side lift the Copa del Rey.Team Structure: Strong Backbone and Tactical FlexibilityWhile coach Hajime Moriyasu's side relish unleashing their attacking talent when possible, they can be pragmatic when needed – playing a low block and keeping things tight – and have a strong backbone. Former Arsenal defender Takehiro Tomiyasu has made the 26-man squad, despite not playing for the Samurai Blue for almost two years due to injuries. In midfield, Wataru Endo offers versatility alongside his leadership and defensive screening, while Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace offers creativity in the middle of the park.Group Analysis: Path Through Group FJapan will surely qualify from Group F, with their opener against the Netherlands likely to be the stiffest test but also an opportunity to send a statement about their intentions. Tunisia and Sweden will probably not have enough quality to contain the Japanese, but the Blue Samurai certainly will not want to be getting complacent.Future Outlook: Breaking the Last 16 BarrierJapan may well break their last 16 hex – but the last eight will likely be as far as it goes for a side whose limitations will probably catch up with them. The psychological weight of so many last 16 exits is something the Blue Samurai will have to find a way to shrug off if they are to achieve greater success in 2026.Squad Breakdown: Key Names to KnowGoalkeepers: Zion Suzuki, Keisuke Osako, Tomoki Hayakawa.Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Shogo Taniguchi, Ko Itakura, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Hiroki Ito, Ayumu Seko, Yukinari Sugawara, Junnosuke Suzuki.Midfielders: Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Daichi Kamada, Ritsu Doan, Ao Tanaka, Kaishu Sano, Takefusa Kubo, Yuito Suzuki.Forwards: Daizen Maeda, Koki Ogawa, Ayase Ueda, Keito Nakamura, Kento Shiogai, Keisuke Goto.

The Accolade Juan Mata had been written off, another caught in the mire of Australian football despite being a World Cup winner. Ever-smiling, now the 38-year-old also has the last laugh, having won the A-League Men’s Johnny Warren medal, the award for the competition’s player of the year. The Season's Impact After receiving the accolade, the out-of-contract Melbourne Victory playmaker said he wondered at the start of the season whether he would even go around again. Mata had endured a difficult introduction to Australia in 2024, after he signed with Western Sydney Wanderers following brief spells in Turkey and Japan. At the time, the arrangement made sense: both club and player – whose peaks were years past – were looking to bring joy back to football. The Data Analysis Mata played 1,684 minutes, scoring five times and assisting others for 13 goals, in a season of promise that ultimately ended suddenly. Victory were unlucky to lose to Sydney FC in the elimination final. The Impact Analysis Mata said he would have traded the Johnny Warren medal for club success, and expressed his appreciation for the Melbourne club. “They created a context and an environment in which I could enjoy football again,” he said. Everyone in the club, my teammates, they have a fantastic culture, and it is a privilege to be part of this.” The Prediction Mata’s future is uncertain. He said after receiving the award he would now take some time to consider his options. He is yet to confirm even whether he will play again. “That’s the big question for me now, what I want to do in my life – if I want to keep playing or not,” he said. “It’s difficult to stop when you’re enjoying. It’s also a good time to stop when things are going well. That’s what I said [after he won] the Victory medal, and that’s the way I feel.

The Shock Exclusion: Maguire’s Instagram RevealHarry Maguire used his Instagram story on Thursday, 21 May 2026 to announce that he is not part of Thomas Tuchel’s England roster for the upcoming World Cup in the United States, Canada and Mexico. The 33‑year‑old centre‑back called the decision “shocked and gutted” and wished his teammates the best. Statistical Snapshot of Maguire’s International Career66 caps for England since his debut in 20177 international goalsParticipated in the 2018 World Cup (semi‑finals) and Euro 2020 (final)Last appearance: 1‑0 loss to Japan in March 2026Missed Euro 2024 due to injury Implications for England’s Defensive Options Ahead of the 2026 World CupThe omission opens a pathway for younger defenders such as Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa, who have been edging Maguire out of the pecking order. Tuchel’s final squad, due on Friday, 22 May 2026, is expected to feature a blend of experience and emerging talent, potentially shifting England’s tactical setup from a traditional back‑four to a more versatile defensive line. What This Means for Maguire’s Club Future and England’s CampaignHaving helped revive Manchester United’s season after the departure of former coach Ruben Amorim, Maguire’s international snub could affect his confidence and market value. At United, he remains a key figure, but a prolonged absence from the national team may prompt discussions about his role under new management. For England, the decision signals a clear move away from the Southgate‑era core, emphasizing form and fitness over legacy.