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Donald Trump’s demand that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz has an immediate impact on U.S. gasoline prices, but analysts warn that a prolonged conflict will push energy costs higher across the globe, far beyond the fuel pump. Systemic increases in power prices and disrupted supply chains are set to compress margins for industries worldwide; in the United States, the effect could be especially damaging to the fragile economics of the AI boom. Oil‑importing nations in the Global South are already feeling the strain: Egypt has imposed curfews, Indonesia is trialling work‑from‑home Fridays, and the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency. While the United States, as a major oil exporter, can partially insulate itself, the country cannot escape the global rise in energy costs. Experts predict that price pressure will linger for months even if the strait reopens within days. Companies are revisiting cash‑flow forecasts, and the AI sector—characterised by energy‑intensive model training and debt‑laden expansion—faces a particularly acute risk. OpenAI chief Sam Altman attempted to downplay environmental concerns, likening the energy required to train an AI model to the cumulative food intake over a human’s 20‑year development. The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee warned that rising energy costs could depress AI share prices, noting that investors were already uneasy about the sector’s heavy reliance on debt financing and uncertain return prospects before the war began. "The conflict could increase these concerns, particularly given the energy‑intensive nature of the supply chain for key components and the operation of datacentres," the committee said. World Trade Organization chief economist Robert Staiger echoed this view, cautioning that a prolonged period of high energy prices could "crimp" AI investment. He highlighted that AI‑related goods accounted for 70% of U.S. investment growth in the first three‑quarters of last year. A forensic note from US law firm Quinn Emanuel revealed that the AI sector generated roughly $60 billion in revenue last year while committing $400 billion to capital expenditure. The financing structure mirrors the 2008 crisis, with off‑balance‑sheet special purpose vehicles and asset‑backed securities playing a central role. Leading "hyperscalers" and infrastructure providers such as CoreWeave are borrowing enormous sums to build out datacentres, although some analysts argue that many projects lag behind their lofty promises. Much of this borrowing comes from private‑credit lenders, making total liabilities opaque and challenging for regulators—an issue the Bank of England has repeatedly flagged. Complex financing arrangements see datacentres owned by special purpose vehicles, debt pooled and sold to pension funds, and other layered structures that obscure true exposure. Quinn Emanuel estimates that $120 billion of datacentre debt has been moved off‑balance sheets in the past two years. The firm warns that distress at any single node could cascade through the tightly interconnected AI ecosystem. Extended higher energy costs, combined with volatile interest rates and weaker consumer demand—both likely fallout from the Middle East war—could trigger that distress. The fundamental question remains: can the AI sector generate sufficient revenue to justify its sky‑high valuations? Even modest energy price hikes may force a market rethink, with potential spill‑over effects across U.S. markets and beyond. As the article concludes, the economic fallout may be yet another unintended consequence of Trump’s aggressive stance on Iran, unleashing forces beyond his control.

At the start of 2026 Pakistan was sitting on a surplus of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG). Three consecutive years of falling demand – from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025 – were driven by cheap solar panels and reduced industrial activity. The government responded by quietly selling excess cargoes abroad and shutting down domestic wells to avoid over‑pressurising pipelines. Any gas that could not be diverted would have been pushed into household networks at a loss, adding billions to the sector’s crippling debt. Everything changed on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched the "Epic Fury" operation against Iran. The strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and targeted missile sites, air defences and military infrastructure. Iran retaliated with hundreds of missiles and drones, choking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz – a chokepoint for roughly 20 % of global oil and gas. As part of its retaliation, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s Ras Laffan Industrial City on 2 March, the world’s largest LNG export hub. Qatar, the second‑largest LNG exporter after the United States, declared force majeure and halted all production, releasing it from contractual delivery obligations. The fallout was immediate. Qatar’s forced shutdown cut its LNG output by 17 % and disrupted the supply chain that fuels Pakistan, which sources almost all of its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Pakistan’s LNG arrivals plummeted from 12 shipments in January to just two in March. Monthly cargo data from the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) show that the country received between eight and twelve shipments a month through 2025, but only two arrived after the conflict began. Price pressure followed. On 13 February state‑owned Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited bought eight cargoes at an average of $10.47 per MMBtu (totaling $257.1 million). By 12 March the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu – a 19 % increase in just one month. Long‑term contracts have left Pakistan with little flexibility. Two government‑to‑government agreements with Qatar, spanning 15 and 10 years, commit the country to nine shipments a month. Even as domestic demand fell – LNG’s share of Asian markets dropped from ~30 % in 2020 to ~18 % in 2025 – the contracts remained binding. Solarisation has been a double‑edged sword. By 2025 Pakistan installed 34 GW of solar capacity, with about 25 GW feeding the national grid, driving an 11 % decline in overall electricity demand between 2022 and 2025. Gas‑fired power plants built for imported LNG are now under‑utilised, especially during daylight hours. Analysts warn that the surplus was predictable. “Pakistan’s energy planning has been locked into long‑term contracts with little room for adjustment,” says Haneea Isaad of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). The resulting circular debt now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees (≈ $11 billion), and the government is negotiating to off‑load 177 unwanted shipments worth $5.6 billion through 2031. With Qatar’s LNG shipments effectively halted, the country faces a potential shortfall of more than 21 % of its power generation capacity. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority confirmed that LNG supplies are under force majeure, while coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia continue. To mitigate the gap, Pakistan is reviving domestic gas production that had been throttled during the surplus period. Roughly 350–400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas were previously held back for LNG imports, now being released to the grid. Nevertheless, analysts caution that even with restored domestic gas, imported coal and hydropower, “the energy shortage may persist, especially during the peak summer months.” Summer pressure is already building. The State of Industry Report 2025 recorded peak electricity demand of over 33,000 MW last summer, while winter demand sits around 15,000 MW, helped by solar generation of 9,000–10,000 MW daily. Furnace oil, the primary backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit (≈ $0.12), more than double since the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Consumers with grid electricity face higher bills and possible outages; industrial users reliant on gas risk production cuts; those equipped with rooftop solar and battery storage are best insulated. “Returning to the spot market is unlikely given Pakistan’s dire financial position, and competing with wealthier nations would price the country out,” Isaad warns. “The realistic outcome may be planned load‑shedding of two to three hours daily.”

Eight Muslim-majority countries, including Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, have issued a joint statement strongly condemning Israel's one-sided bill to impose the death penalty on Palestinians convicted of fatal attacks.The countries expressed deep concern over the conditions of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli detention, warning of mounting risks amid reports of ongoing abuses, including torture, inhumane and degrading treatment, starvation, and the denial of basic rights.Israel's parliament, the Knesset, passed the controversial bill on Monday, a one-sided law that will not impose the same penalty on Jewish Israelis convicted of killings. The law has been criticized by the United Nations and the European Union, but Israel's ally, the United States, came out in support of its sovereign right to determine its own laws.The eight countries also cautioned against measures by Israel that risk further inflaming tensions on the ground, stating that these practices reflect a broader pattern of violations against the Palestinian people.

Oil prices experienced a significant surge, rising more than $5, after President Donald Trump stated that the United States would continue its military operations against Iran. This development has heightened investor concerns about potential sustained disruptions to global oil supplies.Brent crude futures saw a notable increase, rising $6.33, or 6.3%, to $107.49 per barrel early on Thursday. Similarly, US West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $5.28, or 5.3%, to $105.40 per barrel. These gains followed an earlier decline of more than $1 in both benchmarks prior to Trump's televised address to the nation.The recent escalation in tensions between the US and Iran has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran, in retaliation for the US-Israeli attacks. This strategic move has disrupted approximately one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies, precipitating the world's most significant energy crisis in decades.Trump emphasized that the US military is nearing its objectives in the conflict, which he expects to conclude within two to three weeks. His remarks have contributed to increased uncertainty in financial markets.Asian stocks were severely impacted following Trump's speech. Most Southeast Asian countries, which heavily rely on oil imports, are particularly vulnerable to the sharp rise in oil prices triggered by the Middle East conflict. The MSCI gauge of EM Asia equities experienced a 2.3% decline, while regional currencies weakened by 0.2%.Notably, South Korea's main stock market, the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), plummeted by 4.2% after initially gaining nearly 2%. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung urged parliament to promptly pass a 26.2 trillion won ($17.3bn) supplementary budget to bolster the economy during what he described as the worst energy security threat caused by the Middle East crisis.Other Asian markets also saw significant declines, with Singapore's main stock market, the Singapore Exchange (SGX), slipping 0.8%, and Malaysia's benchmark index falling 1%. Markets in Indonesia and Taiwan declined by about 1% and 1.4%, respectively. Stocks in China and Hong Kong also fell, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite index dropping 0.53% and China's blue-chip CSI300 Index losing 0.74%.

A memorial service has been conducted to pay tribute to an Indonesian UN peacekeeper who lost their life during a mission in Lebanon. The solemn occasion brought together colleagues and dignitaries to remember the sacrifices made by the peacekeeper.The incident occurred in the context of UN peacekeeping operations aimed at maintaining stability in the region. The Indonesian government and the international community have expressed their condolences and highlighted the importance of the peacekeeper's role.

A magnitude 7.4 earthquake erupted in the Northern Molucca Sea off the coast of Ternate, Indonesia, resulting in at least one fatality and an initial tsunami alert that was later rescinded.The United States Geological Survey (USGS) clarified that the tremor, first reported as magnitude 7.8, actually occurred at a depth of 35 km, deeper than the early estimate of 10 km. Apart from the confirmed death, no other immediate injuries were reported.The quake’s epicentre lay roughly 120 km (75 mi) from Ternate in the North Maluku province, prompting local authorities in Ternate and nearby Tidore to ready evacuation plans. Metro TV broadcast footage of damaged structures across the area.In Manado, North Sulawesi, a building collapse buried a resident, leading to the sole confirmed death; a rescue official added that another person sustained a leg injury.The Hawaii‑based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC) warned of potentially hazardous waves within a 1,000‑km radius, affecting coastlines of Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia.Within thirty minutes, Indonesia’s BMKG agency recorded wave heights of up to 75 cm in North Minahasa and 20 cm in Bitung, both on Sulawesi’s northern shore, with an additional 30 cm rise in North Maluku.Just over two hours after the event, the PTWC lifted the tsunami warning, declaring that the threat had passed.Indonesia’s position on the Pacific Ring of Fire makes it especially vulnerable to such seismic activity, underscoring the importance of rapid monitoring and public‑safety measures.

During an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council, humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher pressed members to outline concrete measures for safeguarding Lebanese civilians as Israel intensifies its ground offensive and aerial bombardment.Fletcher highlighted the stark parallel between Israel’s stated objectives in Lebanon and the ongoing genocidal war in Gaza, asking the council how it intends to prevent a repeat of the humanitarian catastrophe witnessed there.Since the escalation on 2 March, more than 1.1 million people have been forced from their homes across Lebanon, a displacement surge linked to Israel’s retaliatory strikes after Hezbollah fired missiles into northern Israel.In a video address, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that, once the current operation concludes, the Israeli army will establish a security zone extending to the Litani River and maintain control over the area, effectively creating a new occupied territory.Israeli forces have pushed deeper into the south this week, claiming the moves are necessary to shield northern Israeli communities from missile attacks. Human‑rights organisations have condemned the expansion, warning that targeting civilian infrastructure and preventing residents from returning would exacerbate the crisis.The heightened conflict has also claimed the lives of three UN peacekeepers. Two Indonesian soldiers were killed on Monday when an unexplained explosion destroyed their vehicle near the village of Bani Haiyyan, while a third Indonesian peacekeeper died the previous day after a projectile detonated at a UNIFIL post near Aadshit al‑Qusayr.UN Under‑Secretary‑General for Peace Operations Jean‑Pierre Lacroix said early investigations suggest a roadside blast was responsible for the Monday deaths, emphasizing that such incidents must not occur and that peacekeepers should never be targeted.A spokesperson for Secretary‑General Antonio Guterres condemned the attacks, stating they breach international law and could constitute war crimes. The statement called for accountability and urged all parties to uphold their legal obligations to protect UN personnel and property at all times.

Three Indonesian peacekeepers have been killed in Israeli attacks in Lebanon, according to reports from Al Jazeera. The incident has sparked international concern and condemnation.The peacekeepers were part of a UN peacekeeping mission aimed at maintaining stability in the region. Their deaths underscore the risks faced by peacekeepers in conflict zones.The incident has strained relations between Indonesia and Israel, with Indonesia condemning the attacks. The international community is urging restraint and a return to peace negotiations.

The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has entered its 31st day, with overnight strikes hitting Tehran and other cities, targeting power infrastructure in the Iranian capital and causing a blackout that has since been restored. US President Donald Trump has stated that he wants to "take the oil in Iran", while Tehran has accused Washington of plotting a ground attack despite publicly pushing for a negotiated deal. Trump also mentioned that he is "pretty sure" a deal with Iran will be made. In a diplomatic effort, Pakistan is set to host meaningful talks in the coming days, with the Pakistani Foreign Minister stating that regional foreign ministers discussed ways to bring an early end to the war. The conflict has spread to other regions, with Saudi Arabia intercepting five ballistic missiles heading towards its Eastern province, and Kuwait reporting an attack on a service building and electric power plant, resulting in the death of an Indian worker. The economic impact of the conflict is significant, with Brent crude prices rising 2.98% to $115.93 a barrel, and Asian markets experiencing a decline, including Indonesia's main stock index and Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100.