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Europe is projected to run out of jet fuel in about six weeks, according to the head of the International Energy Agency, raising the spectre of widespread flight cancellations.Fatih Birol told the Associated Press that without a rapid restoration of oil shipments from the Middle East, airlines could soon be forced to drop routes, warning that “some flights from city A to city B might be cancelled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”The shortage stems from the US‑Israel war on Iran, which has snarled global energy markets since the initial strikes in late February. In retaliation, Iran has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for Gulf oil exports.Although a two‑week ceasefire was recently brokered, negotiations to end the hostilities have stalled, leaving the supply disruption unresolved.Meanwhile, Brent crude futures are trading more than 30% above pre‑war levels, intensifying pressure on fuel prices and adding to political scrutiny in the United States.Jet‑fuel shipments that departed before the conflict have largely arrived in Europe, but the remaining reserves are rapidly being drawn down, leaving the continent vulnerable.Airports Council International Europe has warned EU energy and transport commissioners that the region could face fuel shortages within three weeks, echoing industry norms that typically maintain about six weeks of fuel on hand.Birol warned that the situation represents a “dire strait” with serious ramifications for the global economy, noting that prolonged disruption would exacerbate inflation and dampen growth worldwide.The anticipated fallout includes higher petrol, gas and electricity prices, with the impact expected to be uneven across different regions.Airlines are already scrapping marginally profitable routes, especially those without robust hedging strategies, and even carriers with hedged fuel costs may need to reconsider schedules.Despite the broader concerns, British low‑cost carrier easyJet asserted it has sufficient fuel visibility through mid‑May and does not anticipate supply‑related issues in the near term.

Wall Street climbed to a fresh all‑time high on Wednesday as investor confidence rose on the prospect that the US‑Israel war with Iran could soon end.The benchmark S&P 500 closed at 7,022.95, breaking the 7,000‑point barrier for the first time and posting a 0.8% gain. The tech‑heavy Nasdaq surged 1.6% to 24,016.02, also a record, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average remained broadly flat.This rally has erased the steep losses recorded during the early weeks of the conflict, buoyed by the two‑week cease‑fire deal announced last week between the United States and Iran.In a Wednesday interview, former President Donald Trump told Fox Business the war was “very close to over,” a statement that lifted trader sentiment.The White House later clarified it had not requested an extension to the cease‑fire, which is set to expire on 22 April, but said negotiations were “productive and ongoing.”Quarterly earnings from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley beat market estimates, reinforcing confidence in the economy. Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan highlighted strong consumer spending, improving credit quality, and increased corporate line usage.Despite reports that the United States is preparing a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint for roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments—the markets stayed upbeat. The Pentagon has deployed 15 warships and thousands of service members to enforce the restriction.Oil markets reacted positively to the cease‑fire news, with Brent crude falling about 10% to around $95 a barrel, though this price remains roughly 35% above pre‑conflict levels.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast downward to 3.1 percent this year, citing the impact of rising tensions between the United States and Iran on energy and food costs worldwide.The downgrade comes as Iran has retaliated against US and Israeli actions by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for oil and gas supplies, and attacking energy infrastructure in the region. This has driven up oil prices and squeezed oil and gas supplies, affecting countries reliant on these imports.The IMF's new forecast represents a slowdown from its earlier projection of 3.3 percent growth, made before the escalation of tensions. It also marks a decline from 3.4 percent growth in the previous year. The fund warns that some regions and countries will be hit harder than others.Iran's economic outlook saw one of the largest country-level revisions, with a forecast contraction of 6.1 percent in 2026, down from an initial small growth forecast. The IMF also cut GDP growth forecasts for Saudi Arabia from 4.5 percent to 3.1 percent.The IMF's Chief Economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that the current hostilities in the Middle East pose significant policy trade-offs, including fighting inflation and preserving growth. The fund anticipates higher global inflation at 4.4 percent, up 0.6 percentage points from its January forecast.Experts warn that continued strains in the Strait of Hormuz could worsen inflationary pressures. For instance, a sustained $60 increase in gas prices above the average price could put the US firmly in recession territory.Oil prices have dropped on hopes of resumed talks between Iran and the US, with Brent crude futures falling to $95.02 per barrel and West Texas intermediate crude dropping to $91.84. However, prices remain much higher than before the Iran war.

Asian stock markets experienced a significant surge on Tuesday, while oil prices declined, as renewed hopes for ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran brought relief to global markets. US President Donald Trump announced that Iranian officials had reached out to his administration, expressing their openness to a deal.The positive turn for markets came after Trump's remarks at the White House, where he stated, 'We've been called by the other side, and they would like to make a deal very badly.' This development led to gains in major Asian markets, including Japan's Nikkei 225, which rose as much as 2.5 percent, and South Korea's KOSPI, which gained about 3.7 percent. Singapore's Straits Times Index also climbed about 0.6 percent, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was up about 0.4 percent in the early afternoon, and the SSE Composite Index in Shanghai was about 0.5 percent higher.The rally in Asia followed gains on Wall Street, with the benchmark S&P; 500 finishing up 1 percent overnight. Meanwhile, Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, dipped nearly 1.5 percent, falling below $98 a barrel. This decline in oil prices occurred despite the US imposing a naval blockade on Iranian ports, a move that analysts warn could exacerbate the energy shortage affecting the global economy.Iran has effectively halted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the conflict on February 28, significantly impacting the global energy market. Only 21 vessels transited the strait on Sunday, compared to roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict began, according to maritime intelligence provider Windward.

BP has announced that it expects to post 'exceptional' earnings from its oil trading desk, capitalizing on the turbulent energy markets caused by the ongoing conflict between the US and Israel against Iran. The company's refining margins have strengthened, contributing to the optimistic forecast.The surge in oil prices is primarily attributed to the effective closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz shipping route by Iran, a critical passage for global oil supplies. This development has led to Brent crude prices rising sharply from about $61 a barrel in January to a peak of $119.50 several weeks ago. As of Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $98.28 a barrel, still significantly higher than its January levels.The conflict has not only impacted oil prices but also affected global oil demand forecasts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast, now predicting a decline in oil demand by 80,000 barrels a day this year, a stark contrast to its previous forecast of a 640,000 barrel increase. This would mark the first annual decline in oil demand since the 2020 Covid pandemic.In terms of production, BP expects its overall oil and gas production to remain broadly flat in the first quarter. However, the company has seen an improvement in refining margins, which rose to $16.9 a barrel in the first quarter from $15.2 a barrel in the previous quarter. This increase is expected to boost earnings from refined products by $100m to $200m.BP's update comes as its UK rival Shell also reported significantly higher oil trading profits for the quarter. Analysts have been revising their profit forecasts upward, with Citi raising its estimate for BP's adjusted net income to $2.6bn for the January to March quarter.New BP CEO Meg O'Neill, who took over this month, faces shareholders at the annual meeting on 23 April, where she is expected to discuss the company's strategy under her leadership, particularly its focus on oil and gas projects to enhance profitability.

HSBC’s chief executive, Georges Elhedery, told Bloomberg Television at a conference in Hong Kong that the ongoing Iran war is undermining global economic confidence. He warned that the conflict’s duration could amplify price pressures on commodities such as oil, refined products, fertilisers and metals, extending the impact far beyond the Middle East. Brent crude, which had briefly risen above $100 per barrel, slipped 0.9% to $98.5 per barrel after a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports took effect. Negotiations between the United States and Iran are set to resume in Islamabad, but no agreement was reached in the previous talks. In London, the FTSE 100 edged up 22 points (0.21%) to 10,605, even as Imperial Brands led the losers, citing a “more uncertain geopolitical and macro environment.” The UK recruitment firm PageGroup warned that the Middle East conflict is creating an “increasingly uncertain outlook” for the rest of the year, with salaries lagging behind 2022‑2023 levels across the UK, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. HSBC holds a 31% stake in Saudi Awwal Bank, making it one of the European banks most exposed to the region, which contributes roughly 4% of its pre‑tax profit according to JP Morgan analysts. Nevertheless, Elhedery noted that capital outflows from the Middle East have been “very benign” so far. Since the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on 28 February, some affluent Middle‑Eastern investors have started exploring relocation to financial hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong. HSBC chair Brendan Nelson stressed that a peace settlement is essential to restore global energy flows, warning that prolonged disruption would lift inflation and suppress growth. “The longer the disruption continues, the more the indirect effects from higher energy costs will lift inflation and depress growth,” he said at the HSBC Global Investment Summit. Manufacturers reliant on petroleum‑derived synthetic fabrics, such as sportswear maker Castore, reported cost increases of 10‑15% and warned that continued conflict could push those costs onto consumers. Co‑founder Tom Beahon described price volatility as “very difficult to plan,” with daily swings of up to 40%. Logistics are also strained: airlines have reduced flights and vessels remain stranded in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating product shipments. Castore hopes that a resolution in the coming weeks will limit the impact on customers. Virgin Atlantic chief executive Corneel Koster told the Financial Times that jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled since the war began, adding that “some of this disruption to global energy prices will be here to stay.” UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves, speaking at the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, called for coordinated economic action, stating that the Iran conflict must become “a line in the sand” for how the world handles crises and instability.

The United States military confirmed that, beginning at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (14:00 GMT) on April 13, all maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports will be blocked. The directive, issued by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), targets vessels of every nation operating in the Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, but explicitly excludes ships merely transiting the Strait of Hormuz to non‑Iranian ports, marking a narrower scope than former President Donald Trump’s broader strait‑wide threat. This decisive action follows the abrupt end of marathon peace talks in Islamabad, where negotiators failed to secure a memorandum of understanding with Tehran. The stalemate has revived fears of renewed hostilities, prompting the U.S. to leverage maritime pressure as a bargaining chip. Financial markets reacted sharply: U.S. crude oil prices surged 8 % to $104.24 per barrel, while the benchmark Brent crude rose 7 % to $102.29. The spikes reflect investor anxiety over potential disruptions to the flow of oil and liquefied natural gas that currently passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for roughly one‑fifth of global energy shipments. Since the February 28 launch of a joint U.S.–Israel operation against Iran, the strait’s traffic has dwindled to a trickle. Iran continues to navigate its own vessels and has allowed limited passage for foreign ships, while discussing a post‑conflict toll system for the waterway. In response to the blockade threat, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any U.S. warship attempting to enforce the measure would breach the existing U.S.–Iran ceasefire—set to expire on April 22—and would be "dealt with severely." Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi blamed the United States for the diplomatic failure, accusing U.S. negotiators of "shifting the goalposts" when a deal was "just inches away." Academic commentary echoed regional concerns. Zohreh Kharazmi, an associate professor at the University of Tehran, asserted that the United States "is not in a position to dictate" Iranian maritime movements and warned that a prolonged standoff would quickly reveal which side—"the resilience of the Islamic Republic or the resilience of global markets"—would suffer first. While the blockade targets Iranian ports, CENTCOM emphasized that it will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels merely passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a subtle but significant concession aimed at avoiding a full‑scale maritime confrontation.

Oil prices experienced a significant surge following US President Donald Trump's announcement of a naval blockade on Iran. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose more than 8 percent to top $103 a barrel on Sunday.The blockade, which was later clarified by US Central Command to only affect vessels traveling to and from Iran, is set to take effect on Monday at 10am Eastern Time (14:00 GMT). This move has heightened uncertainty in global financial markets, with major stock markets in Asia opening lower on Monday.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical conduit for about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas supplies, has been a focal point of tensions between the US and Iran. Despite a fragile truce between the two nations, only 17 vessels crossed the strait on Saturday, down from roughly 130 daily transits before the conflict.The blockade threat has stoked fears of supply disruptions, contributing to the rise in oil prices. This development comes after oil prices had fluctuated significantly in recent weeks, topping $119 last month before falling below $92 a barrel last week.Global markets are closely watching the situation, with US stock futures and Asian markets experiencing declines. Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 0.9 percent, while South Korea's KOSPI dropped more than 1 percent.

Rising energy costs stemming from the Iran war are set to deliver a sharp blow to British living standards, with the Resolution Foundation estimating that the average working‑age household could lose about £480 in income this year. Before the conflict began, the think‑tank projected a modest 0.9% rise in household earnings. Market‑driven energy price spikes have now pushed that forecast into a -0.6% decline, effectively turning a gain into a loss. Oil and gas markets have reacted dramatically: Brent crude has surged back above $100 per barrel (£74), while analysts such as JPMorgan Chase expect prices to stay elevated through the current quarter, with Goldman Sachs revising its Brent outlook to an average of $90 per barrel in Q2. For the poorest fifth of households, the outlook is equally grim. Expected income growth has been trimmed from 2.8% to 1.2%, despite a long‑overdue real‑terms increase in benefits for some low‑income families. Families with three or more children stand out as a relative bright spot. The abolition of the two‑child limit is projected to generate a 7.7% income boost for this group, contrasting with zero growth for poorer families with fewer children. Energy bills are also poised to climb this summer, erasing the £117 average savings households enjoyed after the regulator lowered the energy price cap in April, according to Jonathan Marshall, the foundation’s principal economist. In response, the Resolution Foundation is urging the UK government to fast‑track a social tariff before winter, aiming to shield the most vulnerable households from the worst of the price shock. James Smith, chief economist at the foundation, warned that “while hopes for sustained peace persist, the path of this conflict remains uncertain and energy prices stay well above pre‑war levels, meaning many households face a decline in purchasing power this year.” He added that “de‑escalation is welcome, but the damage to household finances is already largely done; the government should act now to prepare a social tariff that reaches households falling through the cracks this winter.”