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Closing the Strait of Hormuz has choked a vital artery that carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG, sending energy prices soaring and unsettling global trade. Even if the waterway reopens tomorrow, analysts say the ripple effects will endure for months. Nils Haupt, senior director of corporate communications at German carrier Hapag‑Lloyd, told Al Jazeera that the end of hostilities does not equate to the end of logistics challenges. “Once the bombardments stop, the real work begins,” he said, noting that hundreds of vessels will scramble for berths in Persian Gulf ports, creating a prolonged bottleneck for containers and bulk cargo. According to the International Maritime Organization, about 2,000 ships are currently stranded because of Iran’s partial blockade, with only a handful of vessels from “friendly” nations granted passage. Maritime‑intelligence firm Windward estimates that roughly 400 of those ships are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, waiting for a green light. Diverted traffic has already forced many carriers to reroute via the Suez Canal or take the far longer Cape of Good Hope passage, inflating transit times and costs for shipments bound for Asia and Europe. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia are now being sent around the Red Sea, bypassing the strait entirely. Svein Ringbakken, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Association, cautioned that even with ports operating at full capacity, clearing the backlog of oil, gas and other goods will take months. He added that repeated attacks on regional energy and transport infrastructure have compounded the problem. The International Energy Agency reports that more than 40 energy assets across the Middle East have suffered “severe or very severe” damage, prompting companies such as QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Company and Bahrain’s Bapco Energies to declare force majeure. Beyond the immediate loss of flow, the shutdown has disrupted exports of petrochemicals, fertilisers and raw materials essential for plastics production, further straining global supply chains. Industry leaders warn that the risk landscape has fundamentally shifted. SV Anchan, chairman of US‑based logistics group Safesea, highlighted the rise of asymmetric threats, including unmanned vessel attacks, which have already accounted for at least 18 confirmed assaults since the conflict began. “A full reopening will only bring normalcy after a sustained period of stability and credible security guarantees,” Anchan said. Insurance costs have exploded as a result. Marco Forgione of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade noted that hull and cargo premiums have surged up to 300 %, a pressure point that could force shipping firms to curtail operations if rates remain high. Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, stressed that war‑risk coverage will only normalize when a “truly permanent” security solution is in place, not a partial one. Recent data from Lloyd’s List show that a few vessels have managed to obtain Tehran’s permission to transit, with one ship reportedly paying $2 million for the right to pass. Iranian lawmakers have also moved to formalise transit fees for the strait. Nick Marro, lead global‑trade analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that the security guarantees demanded by shippers may be hard to meet, citing the volatile Red Sea experience where commercial traffic remains below pre‑2023 levels. Marro predicts that the Hormuz shutdown will accelerate a broader trend of route diversification, similar to the supply‑chain shifts triggered by the COVID‑19 pandemic. “Geopolitical uncertainty will become a permanent feature of risk management, not a temporary reaction,” he said. Seikaly echoed this outlook, suggesting that exporters will increasingly explore alternative corridors for strategic and political reasons, ultimately reducing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the long term.

Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he wants to "take the oil in Iran" by seizing control of Kharg Island, the strategic outpost through which roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow. Experts say the remark underscores a blatant disregard for international law and exemplifies what they term “fossil‑fuel imperialism.” Patrick Bigger, co‑director of the Transition Security Project, described the approach as a "might‑makes‑right" logic that is both "abhorrent and spectacularly miscalculated." Trump is slated to give an update on the Iran‑U.S. conflict on Wednesday. He previously claimed the war could end within weeks, a statement that sent the stock market soaring on expectations of de‑escalation. Iran, however, has insisted it needs guarantees against future attacks before halting its counter‑offensive. The fighting continues, highlighted by an Iranian strike on a fully loaded crude tanker in Dubai and threats to "blow up and completely obliterate" Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened promptly. Kharg Island, a five‑mile strip that handles the bulk of Iran’s oil shipments, along with its power plants and oil wells, has been singled out by Trump. He told the Financial Times that U.S. forces should take over the island and the oil stored there. "My favorite thing is to take the oil in Iran," Trump said, adding that critics in the United States are "stupid people." Amir Handjani, an energy lawyer at the Quincy Institute, warned that the statement "completely discredited" the war’s stated objectives and revealed a classic play for natural resources. Handjani noted that Trump’s desire to seize Iranian oil is not new; he voiced similar ambitions in a 1988 interview while promoting The Art of the Deal, saying he would "do a number on Kharg Island" if elected. The former president has also floated comparable ideas for Iraq, Syria and Venezuela, suggesting the United States could appropriate their oil to offset war costs or bolster strategic reserves. Handjani emphasized that international law provides no framework for waging war to capture sovereign nations' natural resources. From a military perspective, taking Kharg Island would be extremely challenging. Iranian missile defenses have rendered regional U.S. bases inoperable, meaning any assault would likely require a parachute insertion of Marines into heavy fire, with the risk of massive Iranian retaliation. Handjani warned that such retaliation could target oil export terminals across the Persian Gulf, potentially driving crude prices to $200‑$300 per barrel and destabilising the global economy. The conflict has already caused the largest-ever disruption to global energy supplies, killing thousands and sparking sharp fuel‑price shocks. While consumers bear the brunt, major fossil‑fuel companies are enjoying windfall profits. Bigger noted that higher oil prices benefit oil majors and are being used as a pretext to expand U.S. drilling, further entrenching reliance on carbon‑intensive fuels. According to Bigger, Trump’s rhetoric reveals a belief that "fossil fuels are a linchpin of his domestic industrial strategy," and that controlling oil equates to controlling global power. He argues that this mindset threatens the international order and hampers the transition to cleaner energy.

Anthropic, a leading AI developer, has suffered a significant source code leak of its AI-powered coding assistant, Claude Code. The incident occurred due to "human error" during a software update, which mistakenly included an internal-use file pointing to an archive containing nearly 2,000 files and 500,000 lines of code.The leaked code was quickly copied to the developer platform GitHub, where a post sharing a link to the code garnered over 29 million views. A rewritten version of the source code rapidly became GitHub's fastest-ever downloaded repository. In response, Anthropic issued copyright takedown requests to try to contain the code's spread.Analysis of the leaked code revealed blueprints for a Tamagotchi-esque coding assistant and an always-on AI agent. Anthropic assured that the exposed code did not contain confidential data from Claude, the underlying AI model. However, some experts worry that the leak suggests internal security vulnerabilities within Anthropic, which could be particularly troubling for a company focused on AI safety.The leak could also benefit competitors like OpenAI and Google by providing them with insights into Claude Code's AI system. This incident is the second data leak for Anthropic in recent weeks, following a separate breach that exposed thousands of internal files on publicly accessible systems.The US government has designated Anthropic as a supply chain risk, a designation the company is contesting in court. This latest breach comes at a critical time for Anthropic, as its paid subscriber base continues to grow and its Claude chatbot gains popularity.

The UK government's proposal to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling is unlikely to provide relief to consumers in the form of lower energy prices. Oil prices have surged to $100 a barrel following the US and Israel's attack on Iran, with potential increases to $150 a barrel due to supply issues in the Strait of Hormuz.Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative party, has introduced a plan to 'get Britain drilling' by opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea. However, experts argue that this will not reduce energy bills for UK consumers. Oil and gas are sold on international markets, and prices are set globally, so there is no direct discount for UK consumers.The Conservative party has previously acknowledged this, but now suggests that tax reforms and removal of VAT on bills could deliver £200 cuts to household energy bills. The plan involves scrapping the windfall tax on North Sea producers, which has raised about £12bn so far.Critics argue that the windfall tax is essential and that removing it would not stimulate production significantly. The tax does not increase prices to consumers and has the support of the International Energy Agency.Analysis suggests that redirecting tax revenues from the North Sea back to consumers would have a minimal impact on bills. A study found that households would gain only about £16 a year if tax revenues from a maximally exploited North Sea were redistributed.Badenoch's claims about job creation in the North Sea are also disputed. The sector is declining, and geology, not politics, will dictate the future of North Sea oil and gas. Most of the UK's sector has already been drained, with only about 218m tonnes of oil recoverable by 2050 from existing fields.New drilling could add only 74m tonnes of oil and 1.1% to gas production, equivalent to putting off the end of the North Sea by a year or two. Job losses in the sector are a concern, with at least 70,000 jobs lost in the decade to 2024.Experts stress that renewable energy sources are a more secure and sustainable alternative. The UK should focus on creating conditions for clean energy infrastructure to attract investment and drive growth.

The moon is becoming a focal point for a new era of space exploration and exploitation, with multiple companies and countries racing to harness its resources. Interlune, a Seattle-based company, has raised $18m to fund its efforts to mine the moon for Helium-3, a rare gas that could become vital in quantum computers and nuclear fusion.Helium-3, deposited on the moon's surface over billions of years by the solar wind, is used in medical imaging but is in extremely short supply on Earth. Rob Meyerson, founder of Interlune, believes that extracting this resource could be economically viable due to its high value.Private access to space has become more feasible through companies like Blue Origin and SpaceX, making lunar mining a possibility. Interlune plans to send a multispectral camera to the lunar south pole to assess Helium-3 concentrations and is working towards a future mission called 'Prospect Moon' to gather samples.The lunar mining initiative raises questions about environmental impact and the ethics of extracting resources from the moon. Critics argue that history has shown pioneers rushing into unknown frontiers and causing irreparable damage. There are concerns about preserving the moon's pristine environment and protecting sites of extraordinary scientific importance.Legal aspects of moon mining are also unclear, with the 1967 Outer Space Treaty prohibiting national claims of ownership but making no reference to commercial activities. Despite these challenges, Interlune and other companies are pushing forward, with China also actively exploring the moon's resources, including Helium-3.

The UK is bracing for a potential third inflationary shock in less than a decade as the conflict between Iran and the US threatens to disrupt oil supplies. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, is at risk of being blocked, which could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. The impact of such a disruption would be felt globally, with Asia being particularly affected as it buys 80% of the oil transported through the strait. Countries in the region are already experiencing the effects, with governments imposing limits on driving and shortening working weeks to conserve energy. Populations are struggling with dramatic hikes in food prices and shortages of petrol and diesel. In Bangladesh, the government reportedly believes it will run out of oil and gas within weeks. To conserve fuel, some temples in Thailand have stopped cremations. The energy-supply storm may well hit the UK's shores just before next month's elections, prompting Keir Starmer to call Cobra meetings and Rachel Reeves to summon business leaders into Downing Street. The poorest households will be hit hardest by the inflationary shock, with food producers predicting prices will rocket nearly 10% this year. According to calculations done exclusively for this column by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), that will add £127 to the average household's annual food bill. However, the ECIU also notes that because the poorest spend proportionately more of their money on food, they will be hit far worse. The author suggests that the UK needs to adopt a more progressive approach to utility pricing, with a move away from fossil fuels and from the current system of ownership. The days of relying on a growth miracle are over, and the UK needs to focus on addressing the inequality and regressive utility pricing that will exacerbate the impact of the inflationary shock.

The UK has been identified as the most vulnerable country in Europe to potential jet fuel shortages as the Iran war disrupts supplies from the Gulf, according to Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary. O'Leary stated that Britain's reliance on Kuwait for approximately 25% of its jet fuel supply makes it particularly exposed to shortages. He emphasized that even if there is a surplus of jet fuel in the Middle East, the logistics of shipping it to Europe remain uncertain.Jet fuel prices have surged, averaging $195 a barrel last week, more than double the average from the previous year. This increase is largely attributed to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage through which over a fifth of the world's oil normally passes.While oil prices eased slightly after US President Donald Trump expressed hope for an end to the Iran war within two to three weeks, the situation remains precarious for airlines. Ryanair has hedged 80% of its fuel costs until next March at $67 a barrel, but O'Leary highlighted that supply disruptions, rather than prices, pose the greater risk.The airline industry faces potential flight cancellations and capacity reductions if fuel supply issues persist. O'Leary also mentioned that higher fares could be a possibility, although there are currently no plans to increase prices. Additionally, he called for the UK government to abolish air passenger duty (APD), a tax that recently increased, further impacting the competitiveness of UK air travel.

The UK Prime Minister's recent announcement of a 'five-point plan' to address the energy crisis has been met with skepticism. During his remarks from Downing Street, Prime Minister Starmer outlined measures that were largely pre-existing or unrelated to the immediate crisis. The plan included: cutting energy bills by over £100 per household, which was announced by Chancellor Rachel Reeves in last November's budget and has since been adjusted to £117 for an average dual-fuel household; extending the cut in fuel duty until September; supporting people exposed to heating oil rises with £53m; investing in clean British energy through the Clean Power 2030 plan; and pushing for de-escalation in the Middle East. Critics argue that most of these points were not new and did not adequately address the current crisis. The plan did not provide specifics on who else could get help with energy bills or how targeted support would be delivered. The Clean Power 2030 plan, a five-year £200bn infrastructure project, will not yield immediate results for consumers, with savings expected to arrive around 2040. The article concludes that repeating measures from last November's budget is not a plan and that a proper five-point plan would be needed if an energy price shock turns into a supply shock, possibly meaning rationing.

The UK's food inflation is expected to soar to 9% this year, even if the strait of Hormuz opens within the next few weeks, according to the Food and Drink Federation. This represents a significant increase from their previous forecast of 3.2% made before the Middle East conflict.The industry is facing unprecedented cost pressures due to the Iran war, which is driving up energy prices. Dr. Liliana Danila, chief economist at the FDF, stated that the current situation is unprecedented and hard to predict, and that food inflation is likely to rise in the coming months.The 9% forecast assumes that the strait of Hormuz, a key shipping channel, will reopen to cargo traffic within the next two to three weeks, and that most large energy facilities will return to normal within a year. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is set to meet with the bosses of the UK's biggest supermarkets to discuss the potential impact on the cost of living and possible supply squeezes.Some food companies, such as Princes, have already raised their prices in response to the cost pressures. UK farmers and producers have warned that without government help with surging energy bills, there could be shortages of domestic produce such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers.The British Tomato Growers' Association is campaigning for the government to classify food producers as energy intensive users, which would help reduce their energy bills. If no support is provided, businesses may fail, according to Simon Conway, chair of the BTGA.