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The heads of the United Kingdom, United States and European Union central banks and treasuries are set to join a high‑level war game in Washington on Saturday, designed to probe how they would manage the failure of a globally significant bank. Participants include senior officials from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, whose governor Andrew Bailey also chairs the Financial Stability Board. Their presence underscores the seriousness with which regulators are treating cross‑border coordination. The exercise is a “desktop” stress test conducted behind closed doors at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) headquarters. It will simulate a Lehman Brothers‑style collapse and test the joint response mechanisms of the three jurisdictions. Holding the drill during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings provides a rare opportunity for the officials, who are already gathered in the capital, to engage in face‑to‑face scenario planning. Regulators have warned that the financial system faces new strains from artificial‑intelligence advances, risky private‑credit lending and market volatility linked to the US‑Israel conflict over Iran. In particular, the latest AI model from US firm Anthropic, called Mythos, has been flagged for its ability to uncover vulnerabilities in IT systems, raising concerns about cyber‑related financial shocks. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the urgency, stating, “It is a very serious challenge for all of us. It reminds us how fast the AI world moves.” His remarks highlight the intersection of technological risk and traditional banking stability. The FDIC described the event as a “trilateral principal level exercise” aimed at coordinating resolution strategies for global systemically important banks (G‑SIBs). While the agency did not disclose the specific scenarios, it stressed that the drill would enhance each jurisdiction’s understanding of resolution regimes, strengthen cross‑border coordination, and bolster confidence in orderly bank resolutions. Since the 2008 Lehman collapse, such stress‑testing simulations have become routine among regulators, serving as a preventive measure against repeat systemic failures. By convening senior policymakers and central bankers for this war game, authorities hope to sharpen their collective response toolkit, ensuring that any future bank failure can be managed swiftly and with minimal disruption to the global economy.

Sixteen Polymarket accounts each earned more than $100,000 by correctly forecasting the U.S. airstrike on Iran on 27 February, while a single user, known as “Magamyman,” pocketed over $550,000 by betting on the removal of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei moments before his death in an Israeli strike.Just before former President Donald Trump announced a temporary cease‑fire on 7 April, traders placed a staggering $950 million wager that oil prices would fall – a bet that proved accurate.These synchronized bets, which also included $855,000 in contracts predicting the 27 February strike and $580 million in oil‑futures positions placed minutes before Trump’s “productive talks” comment on 23 March, have raised alarms about possible insider information being used in online prediction markets.Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi now allow contracts on virtually any news event, blurring the line between traditional sports betting and financial speculation. The ease of accessing commodity derivatives, especially oil futures, amplifies the potential for profit – and for regulatory scrutiny.Law professors Joshua Mitts (Columbia) and Andrew Verstein (UCLA) note that while the trades could be “lucky,” the timing and scale suggest “hallmarks of suspicious activity” that merit investigation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has reportedly opened inquiries into the March 23 and April 7 oil‑futures trades, though it has not publicly confirmed the probes.Regulators face a dilemma: existing legislation may be inadequate for the technological realities of blockchain‑based prediction markets. CFTC Commissioner Michael Selig, appointed by the Trump administration, warned that “we will find you and you will face the full force of the law,” yet the agency cannot issue new rules until it has a full five‑member commission.State‑level challenges further complicate oversight. Nevada temporarily banned Kalshi for operating without a gambling license, while Arizona filed criminal charges over election‑betting contracts. Kalshi argues that the CFTC holds exclusive jurisdiction over such markets.A recent academic study screened over 200,000 “suspicious wallet‑market pairs” from February 2024 to February 2026, finding that traders in this cohort achieved a near 70% win rate, generating roughly $143 million from well‑timed bets on events ranging from the capture of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to celebrity engagements.Congressional leaders have responded with legislation aimed at prohibiting federal employees, including members of Congress and White House staff, from participating in prediction‑market contracts tied to political or policy outcomes. However, experts caution that the legal framework for insider trading in commodity futures remains under‑developed, making enforcement challenging.As prediction markets continue to intersect with geopolitical events, the risk of market distortion grows. “When financial bets are based on classified military information, it undermines both market integrity and public trust,” warned Verstein, highlighting the broader implications for the real economy.

Analysts warn that the world is confronting the most severe energy shock since the 1970s, a looming global recession and a renewed surge in living‑cost pressures that are hitting the most vulnerable households hardest.Against a backdrop of sweltering Washington heat, the atmosphere at the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings shifted dramatically as delegates confronted the fallout from the Iran war. The usual optimism about rising living standards was replaced by a palpable sense of unease.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva addressed finance ministers and central‑bank governors, noting that “some countries are in panic” and urging that “the sooner it ends, the better for everybody.”Such gatherings are rarely venues for open geopolitical confrontation. Yet, as a record‑breaking April heatwave baked the capital, the mounting economic damage from the conflict could no longer be ignored.During a G20 breakfast that included U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, participants described the mood as somber, with frank discussions about the war’s ramifications.Former IMF deputy managing director Mohamed El‑Erian likened the session to a “twilight‑zone meeting,” identifying three looming shadows: the overall health of the global economy, the disproportionate impact on lesser‑discussed nations, and the paradox that the United States, as the war’s initiator, would suffer comparatively less.British Chancellor Rachel Reeves started her day with a jog alongside counterparts from Spain, Australia and New Zealand on the National Mall, posting an Instagram selfie captioned, “Friends that run together – work together.” The image underscored her resolve to confront the war’s economic fallout.Reeves had earlier condemned the conflict as a “mistake” and “folly,” arguing that the war had not enhanced global security and was driving up energy prices for UK families and businesses.In a one‑on‑one with Bessent near the White House, Reeves emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting that the UK, like many other nations, was feeling the pain of higher energy costs triggered by the conflict.Despite the tension, the UK and the United States continue to share deep interests in artificial intelligence, financial services and trade, though the British government signalled little tolerance for the Iranian regime.The IMF’s own warning that the war could precipitate a global recession singled out the United Kingdom as the “biggest G7 casualty,” highlighting the stakes for British growth forecasts.Observers noted Reeves’s vocal stance, recalling earlier disagreements between Bessent and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde that had remained behind closed doors.A cocktail reception at the British ambassador’s residence brought together senior diplomats and financiers—including Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Barclays CEO CS Venkatakrishnan—where transatlantic friction was a hot topic, just weeks before King Charles’s state visit to the United States.Meanwhile, revelations about former ambassador Peter Mandelson’s vetting process added another layer of political strain for the UK government.Before the war, the IMF agenda focused on global cooperation, AI adoption, job creation and poverty eradication. The conflict has now complicated each of these priorities, especially the goal of coordinated international action.Former UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband observed that many nations are now “hedging against American decisions,” acknowledging the United States’ outsized role—about 25% of the global economy—while noting its recent retreat from several forums.The irony was not lost on participants: the meetings were held in institutions born out of U.S. leadership after World War II to prevent the economic chaos of the 1930s, yet they now convene amid a war that threatens similar turmoil.Economists also recognized that real policy leverage sits “two blocks away,” behind the security cordons surrounding the White House, casting doubt on the ability of the IMF and World Bank to influence the conflict directly.Amid the uncertainty, the rapid growth of AI—exemplified by Anthropic’s Mythos model—offers a glimmer of economic resilience, but most countries cannot afford to sever ties with the United States entirely.El‑Erian summed up the dilemma: “People want to go long the private sector and short the mess, but it’s almost impossible to do.”

Australia's Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, has stated that the country is prepared to provide assistance in the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil shipments, as global oil prices experience a significant drop. On Saturday, oil prices fell by approximately 10% after Iran announced that the strait would be open for commercial vessels during a ceasefire with the United States and Israel.The Prime Minister was attending a meeting of 49 countries to discuss the reopening of the strait when the news broke. Albanese emphasized the importance of freedom of navigation for global trade, stating, “Freedom of navigation is essential for global trade.” He also expressed the desire for a permanent and full reopening of the strait for all countries.Australia's energy minister, Chris Bowen, reported that the country has 46 days’ worth of petrol in reserve, which is 10 more days than before the US and Israeli bombing of Iran that sparked the global fuel crisis. Since April 1, fuel prices at Australian pumps have fallen by about 10c per litre beyond the artificial measures to ease prices.The NRMA spokesperson, Peter Khoury, mentioned that it could take a week for the falls in global oil prices to translate to lower prices at the fuel pumps. He also noted that the national average for unleaded petrol has fallen 50c since April 1, and diesel has fallen 37c in the last week.Additionally, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission reported that average retail petrol prices had dropped 41.6c per litre since March 31 across major cities. The federal government's measures, including halving the fuel excise on petrol and diesel and pausing GST revenue on fuels, have resulted in a saving of about 32c per litre of fuel.

Ben Roberts-Smith, a 47-year-old former Australian special forces soldier and Victoria Cross recipient, has been granted bail after spending 10 days in prison. He was arrested in Sydney last week and charged with murdering five people in Afghanistan between 2009 and 2012.Roberts-Smith, who was heralded as an Australian war hero and even honoured as the nation’s “father of the year,” denies all charges. The alleged crimes include the murder of unarmed Afghan prisoners by Australian troops. He faces a maximum sentence of life imprisonment if found guilty.The Australian Federal Police (AFP) Commissioner Krissy Barrett stated that “it will be alleged the victims were not taking part in hostilities at the time of their alleged murder in Afghanistan.” The prosecution will also allege that the victims were shot by Roberts-Smith or by subordinates acting on his orders and in his presence.Roberts-Smith's reputation was called into question in 2018 when news reports linked him to the alleged murder of unarmed Afghan prisoners. A judge found in 2023 that many of the journalists’ claims were “substantially true.”Australia deployed 39,000 troops to Afghanistan over two decades as part of US and NATO-led operations against the Taliban and other armed groups.

Javokhir Sindarov sealed the men’s Candidates in Pegeia, Cyprus, with a historic 10 out of 14 points, finishing 1.5 points clear of Anish Giri. The 20‑year‑old Uzbek also posted the highest tally of six wins and eight draws since the current Candidates format began in 2013. In the women’s section, India’s Vaishali Rameshbabu claimed the title by a narrow ½‑point margin over Kazakhstan’s Bibisara Assaubayeva. Sindarov’s play evoked the classic Soviet master Mikhail Botvinnik, with meticulous opening preparation that often anticipated his opponents’ ideas deep into the endgame. When pressure mounted – notably in his second round against world No. 3 and US champion Fabiano Caruana – his defensive technique remained precise and confident. Final standings (14 rounds): Sindarov 10, Giri 8.5, Caruana 7.5, Wei Yi 7, Hikaru Nakamura 6.5, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu 6, Matthias Blübaum 6, Andrey Esipenko 4.5. The upcoming world championship match will be a best‑of‑14 showdown, pitting Sindarov against reigning champion Gukesh Dommaraju. Both will be 20 years old when the contest takes place in the second half of 2026, though the venue remains undecided. Gukesh’s recent dip to 15th in the ratings has added intrigue to the encounter. Analysts rate Sindarov as at least a 60 % favourite, while India’s grandmaster cohort – led by former champion Viswanathan Anand – is expected to rally behind Gukesh. Speculation also surrounds Magnus Carlsen, the current world No. 1, who stepped away from the classical crown in 2023. He indicated a willingness to defend only against Alireza Firouzja, but Firouzja’s recent focus on blitz and fashion has left the door open for a possible Carlsen‑Sindarov clash, should the Norwegian be persuaded. Sindarov’s rise is remarkable: he earned the grandmaster title at 12 years 10 months, later fell into a teenage obsession with the video game Counter‑Strike, and refocused on chess after defeating Firouzja at the 2021 World Cup. His resurgence helped Uzbekistan win gold at the 2022 Olympiad. Financial projections suggest a potential $10 million revenue stream for a Carlsen‑vs‑Sindarov title match, a figure that could also bolster Carlsen’s claim as the all‑time No. 1 ahead of Garry Kasparov. Nonetheless, Carlsen’s aversion to the intensive computer‑prep demanded by modern classical play remains a major hurdle. Carlsen may instead target the forthcoming 2027 FIDE World Total Championship Tour, which blends classical, rapid, and blitz formats, offering a more varied competitive landscape. In the Women’s Candidates, Vaishali Rameshbabu staged a stunning turnaround. After a 0‑5 start, she surged to the top after round 11, maintained a one‑point lead despite a round‑12 loss to China’s Zhu Jiner, and clinched the final round with a decisive victory over Kateryna Lagno in a sharp Sicilian Dragon, delivering the winning combination 39 Rd8+! 40 c4! Women’s final scores (14 rounds): Vaishali 8.5, Assaubayeva 8, Aleksandra Goryachkina 7.5, Zhu 7.5, Anna Muzychuk 7, Kateryna Lagno 6.5, Divya Deshmukh 5.5, Tan Zhongyi 5.5. Five‑time women’s world champion Ju Wenjun enters the upcoming title defence as a clear favourite, holding a peak rating above 2600 and currently rated 2559 against Vaishali’s 2470. Elsewhere, English GM Dan Fernandez posted an unbeaten 7/9 at the Menorca Open, achieving a 2601 performance rating and boosting his chances for selection to the England Olympiad squad. Young talents also featured: Argentina’s Faustino Oro and England’s Supratit Banerjee – both 12‑year‑olds – failed to secure their final GM norms, while India’s 10‑year‑old prodigy Aarit Kapil became only the fifth player ever to earn an IM norm before turning 11, later flirting with a historic GM norm. The English Chess Federation will host a 24‑hour chess marathon on Chess.com in memory of coaches GM Jonathan Hawkins and IM Adam Hunt, with proceeds supporting Macmillan Cancer Support. 4020: 1…Bxd4! 2 cxd4 Nf4! 3 Qb3 Qxf1+! 4 Kxf1 Rc1+ 5 Qd1 Rxd1 #

As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches, the cost of public transport to match venues in the New York‑New Jersey corridor is set to eclipse $100 for a single trip, prompting a sharp response from U.S. officials. Governor Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey took to X, demanding that FIFA shoulder the expense, warning that commuters should not be left with a multi‑year financial burden. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer echoed the governor’s concerns, calling on the soccer federation to cover transportation costs after noting that FIFA stands to earn roughly $11 billion from the tournament while local transit agencies face a $48 million bill to move an estimated 40,000 fans per match. According to a report by The Athletic, a train ticket from New York’s Penn Station to MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford could top $100 on World Cup days, a stark jump from the regular $12.90 fare. Similar price hikes have been reported in Massachusetts, where tickets from Boston to Foxborough may reach $80 and bus fares could climb to $95. Sherrill highlighted that the existing host‑city agreement, signed in 2018, originally required free fan transportation. In 2023 FIFA amended the terms, allowing match‑ticket holders to pay for travel, a change she argues unfairly shifts costs onto taxpayers. New York Governor Kathy Hochul also voiced criticism, describing the proposed fares as “awfully high” and urging that the event remain affordable and accessible. Schumer added that New York commuters should not subsidize FIFA’s windfall, emphasizing the need for the federation to “step up and cover transportation costs for host cities and states.” In response, a FIFA spokesperson said the organization was “surprised” by the governor’s remarks and reiterated that the federation has long collaborated with host cities on mobility plans, including securing federal funding for transport infrastructure. The statement noted that the revised host‑city agreements permit fans to access public or additional transport at cost, but did not commit to direct financial contributions. The dispute underscores a broader tension between the massive economic benefits promised by the World Cup—projected to draw millions of fans to North America—and the immediate financial impact on local commuters. As the tournament, co‑hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, prepares for kickoff in June, the outcome of these negotiations could set a precedent for how future mega‑events address public‑service costs.

In a rare display of bipartisan cooperation, lawmakers across the US Congress are demanding greater accountability for sexual misconduct. This week, two US representatives, Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales, resigned amid a flood of allegations. Their departures have been hailed as a significant step towards addressing the issue.Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democrat, and Lauren Boebert, a Republican, have been at the forefront of the calls for accountability. Ocasio-Cortez described the resignations as “an important turning point” and emphasized that “abuse of power should never be accepted, especially in public office”. She also named Republican Cory Mills, who is under investigation for sexual misconduct, as the next lawmaker who should resign.Boebert has taken steps to strip Swalwell and Gonzales of their federal pensions and has urged those facing harassment in Congress to come forward. She said, “If your boss is mistreating you, or someone else in the office, tell somebody – come to my office. If you want to remain anonymous, remain anonymous”.The allegations against Swalwell and Gonzales are serious. Five women have publicly accused Swalwell of sexual abuse, with one accuser claiming he drugged and raped her in 2018. Gonzales admitted to having an affair with a staff member in 2024, which is prohibited by the House code of conduct.Lawmakers are now pushing for stricter rules and a safer environment for reporting misconduct. Representative Jackie Speier condemned the tendency for Congress to “basically look the other way” and called on leadership to take action.This movement towards accountability has been likened to the bipartisan push to compel the administration of US President Donald Trump to release investigative documents related to Jeffrey Epstein. The effort to hold lawmakers accountable for their actions marks a significant shift in the culture of Congress.

Former NBA player and assistant coach Damon Jones is expected to plead guilty in a landmark US gambling case, marking a significant development in a sweeping investigation that has led to the arrests of over 30 individuals, including reputed mobsters and other basketball figures.A change-of-plea hearing for Jones is scheduled for April 28 in Brooklyn federal court. He faces charges of wire fraud conspiracy and money-laundering conspiracy related to two separate indictments. The first indictment accuses him of profiting from rigged poker games, while the second charges him with providing sports bettors with non-public information about injuries to NBA stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis.Jones, 49, had previously pleaded not guilty to the charges. He was arrested last October alongside Portland Trail Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups and Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier, among others. According to prosecutors, Jones sold or attempted to sell non-public information to bettors, including a tip that James was injured and wouldn’t play in a February 9, 2023, game against the Milwaukee Bucks. He also allegedly received $2,500 for a tip that Davis would see limited playing time against the Oklahoma City Thunder.In the poker scheme, Jones was among former NBA players used to lure unwitting players into rigged poker games. He was paid $2,500 for a game in the Hamptons where he was instructed to cheat. The poker scheme often made use of illegal poker games run by New York crime families that required them to share a portion of their proceeds with the Gambino, Genovese, and Bonnano crime families.Jones, who earned more than $20m playing for 10 teams in 11 seasons from 1999 to 2009, is a native of Galveston, Texas. He played alongside James in Cleveland from 2005 to 2008 and served as an unofficial assistant coach for James’s Los Angeles Lakers during the 2022-2023 season.