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Lead: A Milestone Reflection on Climate ActionIn its 250th edition, the Guardian's Down to Earth newsletter pauses to assess how the world's fight against climate change has unfolded since the high‑water mark of Cop26 in Glasgow, 2021.Looking Back: Cop26’s Promise and the Five‑Year Journey2021‑2022: Nations pledged to limit warming to 1.5°C, set net‑zero targets and pledged to phase out coal.2022‑2023: The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iran‑oil conflict drove crude prices above $100 /barrel, exposing fossil‑fuel vulnerabilities.2024‑2025: Populist governments rolled back environmental regulations, while renewable technology became cheaper and more widespread.Numbers That Matter: Public Awareness and Emissions GapsThe “Covering Climate Now” survey found that 80‑89 % of the global public recognise the climate threat and demand government action.Current national plans still point to a projected warming of about 2.8 °C, well above the agreed target.Renewable energy costs have fallen by roughly 70 % since 2020, making clean power “cheap, widely available and overwhelmingly popular.”Why the Momentum Slowed: Geopolitics, Economics and PopulismWar‑driven spikes in oil prices, the re‑election of climate‑skeptical leaders and the rise of populist rhetoric have eroded the optimism that surrounded Cop26, pushing many countries to backtrack on commitments.What Lies Ahead: Hopeful Trends and Persistent ChallengesDespite setbacks, advances in clean‑tech, growing public pressure and emerging green‑economy initiatives suggest a pathway forward, but the intertwined climate‑biodiversity‑economy crises demand coordinated global action.

The State of Great Barrier Reef Island Resorts Kerry Outerbridge's recent visit to Brampton Island in the Great Barrier Reef revealed a resort in a state of disrepair. The once-thriving tourism destination now lies abandoned, with damaged infrastructure and overgrown vegetation. The Impact of Extreme Weather Events The resort was severely damaged by Cyclone Yasi in 2011, which is a prime example of the series of extreme weather events that have affected the Great Barrier Reef island resorts. At least six resorts have been abandoned, and many more are struggling to recover. The Economic Challenges The rising cost of diesel and skyrocketing insurance costs driven by the climate crisis have added to the economic challenges faced by the resorts. Additionally, investors are seeking to 'land bank' resorts without operating them, further exacerbating the issue. The Future of Tourism in the Great Barrier Reef The Queensland government has launched a campaign to attract domestic tourists, and there are plans to revitalize some of the abandoned resorts. However, the future of these island paradises remains uncertain, and it is unclear whether they will be able to recover from the damage and neglect. The Push for Restoration and Accountability The Queensland government is taking steps to force the restoration or sale of abandoned resorts, including Brampton Island. This move aims to prevent future resorts from languishing unbuilt or being left in disrepair, ensuring that these unique island ecosystems are protected for future generations.

The onset of the Iran war in February 2026 has derailed expectations of a 2026 UK interest‑rate cut, pushing mortgage rates higher and leaving many prospective home‑buyers scrambling.Iran War Triggers Higher UK Mortgage RatesBank of England analysts now anticipate at least one rate rise this year, reversing earlier forecasts of cuts in 2026. The conflict has reignited inflation concerns, keeping mortgage costs elevated for longer.Rising Rates Push Monthly Payments Up 20%Panos (36, executive sous‑chef) saw his five‑year fixed rate climb from 4.18% to 5.22%, lifting his monthly payment from £2,600 to £3,100 – a 20% increase.Jonathan (49, academic) had a rate of 3.6% withdrawn and secured a new 5.2% fixed deal, adding roughly £150 per month and extending his repayment horizon to 2049 (age 72).Average mortgage‑rate expectations for first‑time buyers have risen by over 1 percentage point since February, according to the Guardian survey.First‑Time Buyers Forced into Renting and Delayed HomeownershipPersonal testimonies illustrate the broader trend:Edward (47, Staffordshire) sold his home, only to face a Section 21 eviction and a drying rental market, while mortgage‑rate spikes made his target purchase unaffordable.Grace (27, NHS employee) saw her approved loan cut from £188,000 to £134,000, then to a reduced offer of £170,000 at 5.2%, forcing her to postpone buying.Across the sample, borrowers report a shift from buying to extended renting, with many extending tenancy periods beyond original plans.Outlook: Prolonged Rate Environment and Policy UncertaintyAnalysts expect the Bank of England to maintain a tighter monetary stance for the remainder of 2026, given persistent inflationary pressure linked to global conflict. Without a clear resolution to the Iran war, mortgage rates are likely to stay above pre‑war levels, keeping first‑time buyers on the sidelines and pressuring the UK housing market to adapt to a higher‑cost financing regime.

The Growing Fear Among Muslims In Meerut, India, a group of Muslim men are huddled inside a small mosque, discussing the arrangements for Eid al-Adha prayers. The conversation is not about sacrificial animals or charity, but about the pressing issue of where and how they will offer their prayers on Thursday. Restrictions on Public Prayers For more than a decade, right-wing Hindu groups have been protesting against Muslims offering public prayers on Fridays and festivals, citing traffic and security concerns. These groups, and even politicians from Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), have disrupted namaz on roads, in parks, or on vacant plots of land. The Impact on Muslim Communities The restrictions on Eid prayers are creating an atmosphere in which even routine religious gatherings are increasingly treated as security concerns. Mosque committees are quietly recalibrating Eid arrangements, reducing the size of congregations, and asking worshippers to arrive in smaller groups or disperse quickly after prayers. The Psychological Impact For many Muslims, the psychological impact of such restrictions and targeting extends beyond the prayer ground. There is a fear of humiliation, and parents tell young people to avoid standing outside mosques because they don't want trouble. Selective Enforcement of Rules While the government frames the restrictive measures around Muslim festivals as necessary for traffic management and public order, it has also facilitated large Hindu religious processions and celebrations with traffic diversions, police protection, and public infrastructural support. Critics say the contrast with the crackdown on namaz deepens perception among Muslims of a selective enforcement of rules.

The Lead Bangladesh has sought a new assistance programme from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as it struggles with the economic consequences of the US-Israel war on Iran. The South Asian country is facing an energy crisis, supply chain disruptions, and rising fuel prices. What Has Bangladesh Asked For? The IMF's mission chief for Bangladesh, Ivo Krznar, announced that Bangladesh has requested a new IMF-supported programme. The size and precise terms of the requested financial aid package have not been disclosed, but Bangladesh's government said in March it was seeking $2bn in loans from various donors. How Badly Has Bangladesh Been Hit by the Iran War? Energy Crisis The war on Iran has caused a worldwide energy crisis, with fuel prices soaring to about $100 a barrel, up from $66 before the war. Bangladesh, which imports 95% of its oil and liquefied natural gas needs, has been severely affected. The country has raised fuel prices by 10-15% and halted production at most fertiliser factories. Garment Industry The ready-made garment industry, which accounts for over 80% of Bangladesh's export earnings, has also been hit. Shipping disruptions have pushed up import costs, and work orders are expected to decline by 20-25% in the next season. Cost of Raw Materials The disruptions to supply chains have impacted other industries in Bangladesh, with raw material prices for plastic products rising. The price of resin, a key raw material, has spiked to $1,500-1,600 per tonne, up from $900-950. Rising Foreign Debt Costs Bangladesh's external debt has risen in recent years, and the country is facing higher foreign-currency repayment pressures. The IMF warned that the Iran war risks triggering an increase in debt levels worldwide. What Is Bangladesh's History with the IMF? Bangladesh is already in the middle of a $5.7bn IMF programme that began in 2023. The country has agreed to move quickly to put a new programme in place, with the World Bank approving a $350m loan to help manage rising fuel import costs. Is the War Deepening a Debt Crisis More Broadly? The Iran war has exacerbated existing debt burdens across Africa, Asia, Latin America, and other regions. Sri Lanka, for instance, suffered a financial collapse in 2022 and secured a $3bn IMF programme in 2023.

The Safety Concerns A giant statue of football superstar Lionel Messi erected in India to mark his visit last year is “swaying in the wind” and will be removed, a lawmaker has said. Workers have scrambled up the 21-metre (70ft) golden-coloured statue in the eastern city of Kolkata in West Bengal, throwing ropes around its shoulders to secure it. The Statue's Construction and Purpose The sculpture showing the 38-year-old Argentina and Inter Miami player raising the World Cup trophy was unveiled during Messi’s GOAT Tour (Greatest of all Time Tour) of India in December. The Removal Process But West Bengal state legislator Sharadwat Mukherjee said it was no longer safe. “The statue of the Argentine football legend in the city of Kolkata was found unsafe by engineers of the West Bengal government,” he told the AFP news agency. “We have noticed that the statue is swaying in the wind.” Workers on Wednesday used ropes to attempt to secure the statue, which looms over a busy road. Mukherjee said it was not clear when it would be brought down. “Removal has proved easier said than done,” he said. “We are planning to remove the statue at the earliest opportunity.” He did not say whether the statue would be re-erected at another site. The Context of Football in India India – a nation of 1.4 billion – is a cricket powerhouse, but struggles on the football pitch and is 142nd on the FIFA rankings. Football, however, is the country’s second favourite sport, according to research by data company Nielsen released on Wednesday.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared in a Kerala rally that India would intensify efforts to isolate Pakistan, promising worldwide ostracism. Within a decade, Pakistan emerged as a strategic partner of both China and the United States, undermining Modi’s isolation agenda and exposing gaps in New Delhi’s foreign‑policy calculus. Modi’s Public Call to Isolate Pakistan Speaking at dusk in Kerala, Modi asserted, “India has been successful in isolating you, and we will intensify those efforts.” The statement echoed a broader shift after the September 2016 attack that killed 18 Indian soldiers in Kashmir, prompting a hard‑line stance against Islamabad. Diplomatic Shifts and Financial Stakes May 10, 2025: Donald Trump announced a US‑brokered ceasefire between India and Pakistan. June 2025: Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif thanked Trump, while India remained silent. May 23, 2026: U.S. Senator Marco Rubio posted that India pledged to purchase $500 billion in U.S. goods over five years, amid declining Indian foreign‑reserve levels. Pakistan secured high‑level meetings with Trump and received a White House lunch invitation for army chief Asim Munir. China’s President Xi Jinping reiterated “unbreakable” ties with Pakistan during a May 2026 visit. Regional Realignment: SAARC Abandonment and BIMSTEC Struggles Following the 2016 attacks, India boycotted a SAARC summit hosted by Pakistan, leading to the cancellation of the meeting and a de‑facto suspension of the regional bloc. New Delhi has since promoted BIMSTEC, a grouping that excludes Pakistan but has failed to gain traction. Analysts note that Pakistan’s diplomatic outreach to Bangladesh, China, and the United States has outpaced India’s, eroding New Delhi’s influence in South Asia. Future Trajectory of South Asian Geopolitics Experts warn that India’s isolation policy may further alienate regional partners and weaken its strategic autonomy. Continued U.S. engagement with Pakistan, combined with deepening China‑Pakistan defence cooperation, suggests a multipolar balance that could limit India’s ability to shape regional security outcomes. Unless New Delhi recalibrates its approach—potentially re‑engaging with SAARC or pursuing a more inclusive diplomatic agenda—its efforts to marginalise Pakistan are likely to remain counter‑productive, reshaping South Asian geopolitics for the foreseeable future.

Scientists have unveiled a new giant sauropod from Thailand, naming it Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis. The discovery, detailed in Scientific Reports, positions the species as the largest known dinosaur from Southeast Asia and offers fresh clues about the region’s prehistoric environment.Discovery of Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis in Northeast ThailandThe fossil remains were first spotted by local residents a decade ago in the Chaiyaphum province, but systematic excavation only concluded in 2024. The specimen, recovered from one of the youngest Thai rock formations, displayed unique skeletal features that warranted classification as a new species within the sauropod lineage.Size and Weight Estimates Put Nagatitan Among the Largest SauropodsMeasurements indicate the herbivore stretched 27 metres (89 feet) long and weighed about 27 tonnes, comparable to the mass of nine adult elephants. Researchers note it likely outweighed the famous Diplodocus cast “Dippy” at the Natural History Museum by at least 10 tonnes. The animal is dated to have roamed the area between 100 and 120 million years ago, during the mid‑Cretaceous.Implications for Southeast Asian Paleontology and Regional HeritageAs the biggest dinosaur ever found in Southeast Asia, Nagatitan expands the known geographic range of late‑surviving sauropods, which were thought to have largely disappeared from the region when it became a shallow sea in the Cretaceous. The find underscores Thailand’s growing importance as a paleontological hotspot and adds to the modest list of 14 named Thai dinosaurs.Future Research Directions and Tourist OpportunitiesLead author Thitiwoot Sethapanichsakul—a University College London PhD student—suggests further fieldwork could clarify the dinosaur’s feeding habits, which likely involved bulk browsing of conifers and seed ferns. A life‑size reconstruction now stands at Bangkok’s Thainosaur Museum, hinting at increased scientific tourism and educational outreach in the region.

The Deadly School Fire At least eight students have been arrested on suspicion of arson after fire at a boarding school for girls in Kenya killed 16 students and injured 79, police said. The fire broke out in the early hours of Thursday at the Utumishi Girls Academy Senior School in Gilgil, west-central Kenya. Investigation and Arrests On Friday, the Directorate of Criminal Investigation said preliminary investigations had identified eight people as “persons of interest in connection with the planning and execution of the suspected arson attack”. “The eight girls have since been arrested and are currently in police custody,” the statement added. The Aftermath Student Hilda Njeri, who was in one of the dorms most-affected by the fire, told Al Jazeera she was still dealing with everything that happened. “I was badly injured on my leg, and my lower back was badly injured,” Njeri said outside the school on Friday, adding that the principal took the students to hospital and paid all bills for treatment. Government Response Kenyan Education Minister Julius Ogamba told reporters that early investigations found that two teachers had been informed of the students’ alleged plans, but failed to stop them. Ogamba added that the school failed to follow safety rules, citing overcrowding in the dorms and a locked emergency exit. The Kenyan government has disbanded the school board of management and will take appropriate legal and disciplinary action against any staff found to have neglected their duties, he said.