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President Donald Trump announced on Fox Business that he will dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the central‑bank chief does not vacate the post by the statutory end of his term on May 15. “I’ll have to fire him, OK, if he’s not leaving on time,” Trump said, adding that he had previously held back the decision to avoid controversy. Powell, who has just over a month left in his tenure, has repeatedly been criticized by Trump for what the president calls a “bad job” and for refusing to lower interest rates despite Trump’s repeated demands since his return to the White House in January 2025. In January, Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to replace Powell. Warsh, known for his criticism of the Fed’s relatively high rates, is expected to align more closely with Trump’s push for rate cuts. His confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee is slated for April 21, but the outcome remains uncertain. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina, a member of the banking committee, has signaled he will block Warsh’s nomination until the Department of Justice concludes its criminal investigation into alleged misconduct surrounding the Fed’s headquarters renovation in Washington, D.C. Tillis described the probe as “reaching the point of absurd,” yet insists the investigation must be resolved before moving forward. The probe appears active: prosecutors made an unannounced visit to the construction site this week, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, underscoring the seriousness of the inquiry. During the same interview, Trump dismissed the investigation’s relevance, claiming the project was “probably corrupt, but what it really is is incompetence,” and questioned whether a $25 million renovation could balloon to a $4 billion expense. Powell responded in January with a rare public rebuke, labeling the investigation a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to lower rates. He warned that political intimidation could jeopardize the Fed’s ability to set monetary policy based on economic evidence. The legal backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty. The Supreme Court has yet to rule on Trump’s authority to fire a Fed board member without cause—a question that resurfaced after the president’s attempted removal of Fed governor Lisa Cook last summer. Justices appeared skeptical of such unilateral action during oral arguments in January. With the Fed’s independence at stake, the coming weeks will determine whether Trump’s threat translates into action, whether Warsh can secure Senate confirmation, and how the renovation investigation will influence the broader debate over political interference in U.S. monetary policy.

The Brexit debate has taken a significant turn, with Keir Starmer's government now openly acknowledging the need for closer ties with the EU. This shift in approach comes as the UK faces increasing global uncertainty, including Vladimir Putin's territorial aggression, Donald Trump's geopolitical vandalism, and China's emergence as a superpower.In opposition, Starmer had pushed Brexit to the margin of debate. However, in government, he has learned that Europe is central to Britain's interests, whether discussed or not. The avoidance of painful arguments from the past has turned out to be a handicap when making plans for the future.Labour's 2024 general election manifesto had pretended that Brexit was a historical event, something Boris Johnson got 'done' in 2020. However, the relationship with the EU cannot be settled due to its evolving nature and the UK's position as an ex-member on its border.The options are now more Brexit or less, never a steady state. Johnson's Brexit deal was structured to accelerate separation over time, with the theory that divergence from EU rules would give Britain a competitive advantage. However, this Eurosceptic fantasy has been exposed as wrong, with the UK now seeking to put Johnson's divergence ratchet into reverse.Downing Street's acceptance of this logic has been flagged by a gradual change in rhetoric, with the prime minister now listing Brexit as an affliction in the same category as the Covid pandemic. The chancellor, Rachel Reeves, identifies closer integration with Europe as 'the biggest prize' in a dash for growth.To facilitate a more intimate relationship, the government proposes legislation that will give ministers open-ended powers to adopt EU standards for various sectors of the economy. This 'dynamic alignment' is supposed to make it easier for businesses to move goods into the single market and make Britain a more attractive destination for investment.However, the Conservatives and Reform UK are appalled, objecting to the circumvention of future legislative scrutiny by the use of so-called Henry VIII powers. The real grievance is the old ideological one, equating any application of single market rules to colonisation by Brussels.As Starmer tries to go in this direction, he will collide with familiar Brexit obstacles. The European Commission will insist there can be no 'cherrypicking' from the single market; that non-member states wanting to enjoy the benefits of a European club can expect to pay subscription fees into European budgets.Opinion polls routinely show a clear majority of voters think Brexit has gone badly. The logic of pooling resources with continental neighbours can only grow in the light of wildfires started by Trump along the international horizon.Starmer knows these conditions permit a more assertive agenda of EU integration. However, it is hard to take bolder strides within red lines – no free movement; no single market membership; no customs union – drawn when Labour's Europe policy was defined by the preference to change the subject.

Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sharply criticized President Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the Federal Reserve to slash borrowing costs, likening the approach to the fiscal tactics of a “banana republic.”Trump has publicly urged the central bank to deliver the lowest interest rate in the world, arguing that cheaper financing would ease the service burden on the United States’ staggering $39 trillion debt.Speaking at an HSBC investor summit in Hong Kong, Yellen asked, “How often does the president of a developed country demand that interest rates be set to reduce debt‑service costs? This is what you hear in a banana republic.” She warned that such political meddling could unleash inflation if the Fed’s independence is compromised.The Fed, under Chair Jerome Powell, last lowered its policy rate in December to a range of 3.5 %–3.75 %. However, policymakers are growing uneasy about inflationary pressures, especially as the ongoing Iran conflict threatens oil supplies.Powell is slated to step down next month, but his successor—Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh—has yet to secure Senate confirmation. Powell has indicated he will remain in his role if a replacement is not confirmed, and he may continue as a Fed governor until a pending Department of Justice investigation concludes.Trump has openly dismissed the idea of Powell staying on, telling Fox Business that he would “have to fire him” if the chair does not leave. Powell, for his part, describes the DOJ probe as a “pretext” aimed at pressuring the Fed to cut rates.Warsh, who argues that potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence could justify lower rates, faces skepticism from Yellen, who doubts he commands the same respect as former Fed chair Alan Greenspan. She noted, “Greenspan was widely respected for his expertise; I don’t think Warsh walks in with that level of credibility.”Trump’s broader effort to reshape the Fed board includes an attempt to remove Governor Lisa Cook, who is currently facing a Supreme Court case over alleged mortgage fraud.Meanwhile, finance ministers and central bankers have gathered in Washington for the International Monetary Fund’s spring meetings. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that rising oil prices, driven by the Iran conflict, constitute a “major supply shock” that central banks must assess carefully.The IMF has cautioned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, underscoring the interconnected risks of geopolitical tensions, sovereign debt, and monetary policy decisions.

Leeds, the largest European city still without a mass‑transit system, may finally see a tram line – but not before the late 2030s. The latest West Yorkshire Mass Transit plan, championed by combined‑authority mayor Tracy Brabin, received a fresh £200 million in development funding, part of a broader £2.1 billion allocation for the region.City council leader James Lewis, who began his career on a 1993 work‑experience placement with the council’s highways department, says the new scheme differs from past attempts. Instead of squeezing trams onto existing bus routes, the proposal envisions a dedicated line that could “float over or under the M621 motorway, similar to the Docklands Light Railway,” linking the White Rose shopping centre, Elland Road stadium, Leeds railway station and St James’s Hospital.The Treasury’s independent review, however, forced the government to demand a fresh business case that proves the need for trams rather than buses. This procedural hurdle has added roughly two years to the timetable, pushing the projected opening into the late 2030s. Brabin acknowledges the setback, noting critics now claim the project is effectively “cancelled,” but she insists the work is merely delayed, not abandoned.Leeds’ transport woes date back to the removal of its historic double‑deck tram network in 1959 and the construction of the M621, which many locals blame for isolating the city’s south side. A 2025 Treasury review warned that previous “Supertram” proposals failed because they could not demonstrate sufficient value for money, leading to the withdrawal of funding in 2005 and the abandonment of a trolley‑bus plan in 2016.Supporters argue the tram is essential for unlocking massive regeneration. Leeds United investor Pete Lowy predicts the line could catalyse up to £1 billion of investment, including 2,500 new homes, retail and leisure space, and a 15,000‑seat stadium expansion. Northern Powerhouse Partnership chief executive Henri Murison points to the emerging South Gateway development in Bradford as evidence that transport‑led investment is already materialising.Critics remain sceptical. Leeds University transport professor Greg Marsden questions how an 18‑year‑long project can still be justified, while local residents voice doubts that a tram can ever be built in a city they consider “not big enough.” Tom Forth, co‑founder of data‑city firm Information Group, blames centralised decision‑making in London, arguing that devolved funding would accelerate delivery.In the meantime, the council is focusing on improving bus services, which will come under public control in 2027. Centre for Cities analyst Rob Johnson notes that increasing bus frequencies could immediately benefit the 390,000 residents currently poorly connected, potentially delivering more mobility gains than a tram in the short term.Nevertheless, Brabin maintains that trams are “more attractive, carry more passengers, and generate more jobs and growth” than buses, and she reaffirms her promise: “I promised a tram, and a tram is what we’re going to get.” The pledge to have “spades in the ground” by 2028 for preparatory works remains on the table, even as the project navigates the Treasury’s stringent process.

Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor nominated by President Donald Trump to replace Jerome Powell, has filed ethics disclosures showing personal assets well above $100 million. If confirmed, he would become the wealthiest central‑bank leader in U.S. history. The 69‑page filing, released on Tuesday, lists two private‑fund investments each valued at over $50 million in the Juggernaut Fund LP, plus $10.2 million in consulting fees from the investment office of Wall Street titan Stanley Druckenmiller. Many holdings are described only in broad categories because “pre‑existing confidentiality agreements” prevent full disclosure; Warsh has pledged to divest these assets should his nomination be approved. Federal Reserve ethics rules, tightened in 2022, prohibit officials and their families from owning bank stocks, crypto‑related assets, and impose strict limits on buying and selling securities. The Fed’s own standards, set by the Federal Open Market Committee, are stricter than those governing other federal employees. Beyond the large private‑fund stakes, Warsh’s disclosures reveal a portfolio concentrated in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence and cryptocurrency. Notable entries include the robotic‑coffee‑bar platform Cafe X, wearable‑tech firm Cionic, an Ethereum layer‑two project dubbed “Blast,” and a reversible male‑contraceptive solution called Contraline. Details for many of these positions are omitted, again citing confidentiality. The filing also enumerates assets held by Warsh’s spouse, Jane Lauder—a member of the Estee Lauder family with an estimated net worth of $1.9 billion. Her holdings feature municipal bonds listed simply as “over $1 million.” Liabilities appear modest in comparison: a 2015 mortgage of up to $5 million with JPMorgan Chase at a 2.75% rate, a revolving credit line of up to $5 million from PNC Bank at roughly 6%, and a $1.95 million capital commitment to THSDFS LLC, an interest Warsh has also pledged to divest. Ethics analyst Heather Jones of the Office of Government Ethics confirmed that Warsh’s divestiture promises would bring him into compliance with the Ethics in Government Act. Nonetheless, the breadth of undisclosed holdings is likely to dominate his upcoming confirmation hearing, scheduled for April 21. Political dynamics add further uncertainty. A key Republican senator has signaled intent to block Warsh’s confirmation until a Department of Justice investigation into Powell’s oversight of Fed‑headquarters renovations concludes. Although a federal judge recently dismissed two subpoenas targeting Powell—citing a perceived attempt to pressure him on interest‑rate policy—the Justice Department plans to appeal, potentially delaying any Senate vote. Powell has indicated he will remain “pro tem” if Warsh is not confirmed by the end of his term on May 15, and he could retain his governor seat until 2028 if he chooses.

On Tuesday, shipping data from LSEG and Kpler confirmed that at least three tankers entered the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, including the Panama‑flagged Peace Gulf, which is bound for Hamriyah port in the United Arab Emirates. Earlier that day, two U.S.–sanctioned vessels, the Rich Starry and the Elpis, also transited the waterway. Because none of these ships were destined for Iranian ports, they remain exempt from the U.S. blockade that began on Monday. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that, as of 10 a.m. ET (14:00 GMT) on Monday, a naval blockade was in effect against all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, in line with the presidential order issued by former President Trump. The directive applies to "vessels of all nations" operating in Iranian coastal waters, including the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Tehran has warned of possible retaliation against ports in neighboring Gulf states. In response to the blockade, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ordered every ship to follow a newly‑drawn navigation map that forces vessels to enter the strait north of Larak Island and exit south of it, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines in the former main traffic zone. Before the conflict, the strait functioned like a divided highway with two dedicated lanes—each about 3.2 km long—carrying roughly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. The IRGC now classifies the original lanes as "restricted" and has effectively closed them. Ship traffic has collapsed by **more than 95 %** since the war began. Kpler’s tracking data shows that only **279 vessels** passed through the strait between Feb. 28 and Apr. 12, a stark contrast to the pre‑war average of around **100 ships per day**. Even after a cease‑fire took effect on Apr. 8, a mere **45 ships** have entered or exited the waterway. The disruption has left hundreds of tankers and other vessels stranded in the Gulf, slashing global oil and gas supplies by an estimated **20 %**—the largest fuel‑supply shock on record. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure and the sharp reduction in shipments have pushed crude prices up by roughly **50 %**, with Asian importers bearing the brunt of the price spike. According to the same Kpler data, **22 ships** have been attacked in the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. The incidents are distributed as follows: eight in United Arab Emirates waters, six in Omani waters, two each in Iraqi and Qatari waters, and one each in Bahraini, Kuwaiti, Saudi and Iranian waters. These figures underscore the strategic vulnerability of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint and highlight how the combined effect of the U.S. naval blockade and Iran’s alternate routing has reshaped global shipping patterns and commodity markets.

The US military's Central Command (CENTCOM) reported that no ships 'made it past' the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz during its first 24 hours. Six merchant ships were ordered to turn around after being intercepted. The blockade, which began after failed US-Iran talks in Pakistan, applies only to vessels entering and exiting Iranian ports, while others remain free to transit the waterway.CENTCOM stated that 10,000 US sailors, Marines, and airmen are involved in the operation, along with more than a dozen US warships and dozens of aircraft. The blockade's effectiveness has raised concerns about Iranian retaliation and its impact on global oil markets.Despite CENTCOM's report, there are conflicting accounts of ships transiting the strait. Reuters reported at least three vessels, including two US-sanctioned tankers, passed through without heading to Iranian ports. However, AFP and US media outlets reported two ships left Iranian ports and transited the waterway.The situation remains tense, with Iran condemning the blockade as 'piracy' and Trump threatening to 'eliminate' any Iranian ships that attempt to break the blockade. Both sides have signaled openness to further talks, with Trump suggesting potential developments within two days and Iran expressing willingness to negotiate on issues like the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's nuclear program, and a ceasefire extension to Lebanon.

Somalia's military has dealt a significant blow to the terrorist group Al-Shabab, killing 27 fighters in a large-scale operation. The Ministry of Defence reported that the operation, conducted in the autonomous state of Jubbaland, was carried out with the support of international partners who provided air strikes.The operation, which took place across the Lower Jubba and Middle Jubba regions, targeted the districts of Jilib, Xagar, and Afmadow. Somalia's Defence Ministry stated that the operation was a success, dealing a major blow to Al-Shabab and eliminating key members of the armed group.In addition to the casualties, the Somali army seized weapons and military equipment, including BKM machine guns, RPGs, AK-47 rifles, and landmines intended for use against civilians. The Defence Ministry emphasized that operations are ongoing to pursue the remaining Al-Shabaab elements and ensure the security, stability, and safety of civilians living in Somalia.Somalia has been battling Al-Shabab, an al-Qaeda-linked group, since 2007. The group aims to topple Somalia's central government and impose its strict interpretation of Islamic law. Al-Shabab is considered by the United States Africa Command (AFRICOM) to be the largest, wealthiest, and most lethal al-Qaeda-affiliated organisation globally, controlling large swaths of southern and central Somalia.The conflict has had a significant humanitarian impact, with almost 60,000 people displaced due to fighting between government forces and Al-Shabab in Somalia's Middle Shabelle region between January and July 2025. The group has also claimed responsibility for attacks in Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti.

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently engaged in high-stakes diplomacy, hosting United States Vice President JD Vance for talks on the sidelines of direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran, marking the highest-level engagement between the two nations since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Simultaneously, Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Defense announced the arrival of a Pakistani military force at King Abdulaziz Air Base in the kingdom's Eastern Province, under the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed last year. The SMDA commits both countries to treating any act of aggression against one as an act against both, strengthening joint military coordination and raising operational readiness. This development has underscored Pakistan's delicate balancing act in the midst of a war that has destabilized the global economy and led to attacks and deaths in multiple countries. Pakistan has been a central mediator between the US and Iran, hosting their teams and driving attempts to continue talks after a breakdown in negotiations. However, its commitment to militarily assist Saudi Arabia, a key ally repeatedly hit by Iran, poses significant challenges. Analysts suggest that Pakistan's approach carries both logic and risk, as it attempts to sustain both roles using its commitments under the SMDA to create leverage over Iran and deter further strikes on Saudi installations. The continuation of US-Iran talks is crucial for Pakistan, as hostilities restarting could collapse its strategy and force deeper involvement in the conflict. Experts emphasize that Pakistan's window for playing both mediator and Saudi military ally is narrow, and its military deployment must remain strictly defensive, time-bound, and transparently limited to avoid jeopardizing its relationships with both Iran and Saudi Arabia.