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The ongoing conflict between Iran and the US-Israel alliance has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies and a third of global fertilisers necessary for food production.Before the conflict, an average of 138 ships a day transited the strait. However, following the escalation, 100 vessels have exited the Gulf and only 40 have entered in the past month, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.Despite over 20 reported attacks on ships in the region, including near-misses and damage to vessels, some ships are still attempting to cross, with Iran permitting 'non-hostile vessels' to use a 'safe corridor' in its territorial waters. This route allows Iranian authorities to visually verify vessels and potentially demand payment for safe passage.The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has raised concerns about the 20,000 seafarers stranded in stressful conditions with dwindling supplies. Over 30 countries have agreed to work together to safeguard the strait, with the UK offering to host an international security summit to devise a plan to reopen it.

The UK government has announced a significant intervention in the country's industrial sector, investing £100m to reopen a carbon dioxide plant on Teesside. The Ensus plant, which was mothballed in September, will restart operations for an initial three-month period, with hopes that it could then remain open indefinitely.The decision to reopen the plant comes amid concerns that the war in Iran could trigger shortages of CO2, a gas that has various uses ranging from carbonating drinks and keeping food fresh to medical procedures and the sedating of animals for slaughter. The plant's reopening is expected to bolster production of CO2 and help ensure the resilience of supply chains.The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, approved the reopening of the plant, stating that the government would 'always do what's needed to ensure resilience and protect British businesses from the worst impacts of global uncertainty.' The move is part of wider government efforts to ensure the UK maintains access to critical industrial resources during global supply shocks.The UK's food and drink industry faced a CO2 crisis in 2021, after the easing of pandemic restrictions sent the price of wholesale gas soaring, pushing up the manufacturing costs of fertiliser production, which also produces the gas as a byproduct. The crisis resulted in the government providing a temporary bailout to the American company CF Fertilisers to help restart CO2 production at its Teesside factory.The Ensus plant has had operations on Teesside since 2010, using distillation and fermentation to convert wheat into bioethanol. CO2 is a byproduct of this process, as well as high-protein animal feed. The company, which is headquartered in Middlesbrough, employs about 100 people.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

The global food system is facing an unprecedented threat of collapse, much like the financial system did in 2008. The concentration of power in the hands of a few large corporations has led to a loss of diversity, redundancy, and modularity, making the system highly vulnerable to shocks.Recent data suggests that every part of this system is now highly concentrated in the hands of a few corporations, which have been consolidating both vertically and horizontally. One recent study found that the US food system has “consolidated nearly twice as much as the overall economic system”. Some of these corporations, diversifying into financial products, now look more like banks than commodity traders, but without the same level of regulation.These vulnerabilities are exacerbated by the use of just-in-time supply chains and the funnelling of much of the world’s trade through a number of chokepoints. Some people have long warned that the strait of Hormuz, alongside the Suez canal, Turkish straits, Panama canal and straits of Malacca, are critical chokepoints, whose obstruction would threaten the flow of food, fertiliser, fuel and other crucial agricultural commodities.When a system has lost its resilience, it’s hard to predict just how and when it could go down. The collapse of one corporation? The simultaneous closure of two or more chokepoints? A major IT outage? A severe climate event coinciding with a geopolitical crisis? The next step could be contagious bankruptcy and cascading failure across sectors.We know what needs to happen: break up the big corporations; bring the system under proper regulatory control; diversify our diets and their means of production; reduce our dependence on a handful of major exporting countries; build strategic food reserves, accessible to people everywhere. But there’s a problem, and it’s not just Trump. Almost all governments are beholden to corporate and financial power.The best we can hope for is that braver politicians in our own countries seek to insulate us from the worst impacts. A crucial step is to encourage a shift to a plant-based diet. People struggle to see the relevance, but it’s simple. A plant-based diet requires far fewer resources, including just a quarter of the land a standard western diet requires and much less fertiliser and other inputs.

The conflict in Iran has sparked concerns about a potential global food crisis due to a looming shortage of fertiliser, a crucial component in food production. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, has been disrupted, impacting the export of fertilisers from Gulf countries.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the Strait of Hormuz was 'closed', causing oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel. However, experts warn that a parallel crisis is emerging - a considerable threat to global food security due to a shortage of fertiliser.Nearly half of the world's traded urea, the most widely used fertiliser, and large volumes of other fertilisers are exported from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions to gas supplies and shipping have already forced fertiliser plants in the Gulf and beyond to shut or cut their output.Countries such as India, Brazil, and China are heavily dependent on Gulf fertiliser exports, with India sourcing over 40% of its urea and phosphate fertilisers from the region. A prolonged fertiliser shortage and hike in fertiliser prices could lead to reduced crop yields, affecting food security worldwide.The urea export prices from the Middle East have surged by about 40%, rising from just less than $500 to a little more than $700 per metric tonne. The price is currently close to 60% higher than this time last year.According to one shipping services company, 20% of the world's fertiliser originates in the Gulf, while 46% of global urea supply comes from the Gulf. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world's largest urea supplier, alone supplies 14% of the world's urea.Analysis by Kpler, a data and analytics company, shows that as much as one-third of global fertiliser trade could be disrupted if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists. This could lead to nitrogen fertiliser prices doubling and phosphate prices climbing by about 50%.

The global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran and the fallout from the Ukraine conflict is equivalent to the combined force of the twin oil shocks of the 1970s, according to the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).Fatih Birol, the IEA's executive director, warned that the growing fallout could be seriously compounded by interruptions to the 'vital arteries of the global economy', including petrochemicals, fertilisers, sulphur, and helium.The crisis, which started with bombings against the regime in Tehran on 28 February, already represents the loss of 11m barrels of oil per day and about 140 bcm of gas. This is comparable to the losses seen in the 1973 and 1979 oil crises, which saw a loss of about 5m barrels of oil per day each, and Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which removed about 75bn cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas from international markets.Birol said that at least 40 energy assets in the Gulf region had been severely or very severely damaged, so even an end to the conflict would not immediately restore energy supply. He also noted that the Asia Pacific region had been badly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil supply is transported.The IEA has taken emergency measures, including the release of 400m barrels of oil from strategic reserves, the largest emergency measure in its history. Birol said he is consulting world leaders about another possible release of emergency oil supply, noting that the initial move was only 20% of overall stocks.