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Israel's conflict with Iran has ended in a strategic failure for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with the war achieving none of its main goals and damaging Israel's global standing.Despite years of threats and diplomatic pressure, Israel's war with Iran has resulted in a fragile and vague ceasefire, with Iran's regime still intact and its military assets significant.The US intelligence community had deemed Israeli predictions of regime change and revolution in Iran as 'farcical', and Netanyahu's assessment that the war would be short-lived proved woefully wide of the mark.Netanyahu's insistence on continuing attacks in southern Lebanon appears hubristic, and Israel's actions have been criticized by opposition leaders, including Yair Lapid and Yair Golan, who have called the ceasefire a 'strategic failure'.The reality is that Netanyahu gambled everything on his war and failed to secure the fall of the Iranian regime, the seizure of Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, or meaningful state degradation.Instead, Israel's global standing has been damaged, and its role in pushing the US to war in Iran has been assailed by both progressives and the far right in America.The domestic fallout for Netanyahu in an election year in Israel will be significant, with many Israelis likely to question his ability to deliver on his promises of security and victory.

The Middle East conflict is having a profound impact on maritime workers, port staff, and shipping crews. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's busiest maritime routes, remains affected despite a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran.Maritime traffic through the narrow channel linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman continues to face delays, diversions, and heightened security risks as the situation evolves. Ports and shipping companies are operating amid uncertainty, while cruise ships carrying thousands of tourists have faced disruption across the region.The Guardian is inviting maritime workers, port staff, and shipping crews to share their experiences of how the conflict is affecting their work. The outlet is providing a confidential form and messaging channels for those who wish to contribute their stories anonymously.Key concerns for maritime workers include:Delays and diversions due to the conflictHeightened security risks for vessels and crewsImpact on livelihoods and work operationsThe Guardian's initiative aims to shed light on the human impact of the conflict on those working in the maritime industry.

The recent ceasefire between the US and Iran offers a glimmer of hope for the energy crisis that has been exacerbated by the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the deal's stability is already being questioned, with Iran claiming that Israel's attacks on Lebanon breach the agreement. Even if the ceasefire holds and hundreds of tankers stranded in the Gulf start to transit once more, analysts fear that it will not be enough to return the flow of oil, gas, chemicals, and other vital items to pre-crisis levels. An estimated 2,000 vessels with about 20,000 seafarers onboard have been trapped in the Gulf since the outbreak of the conflict. Shipping analysts and owners have cautioned that even a temporary ceasefire does not provide a sufficient guarantee that it is safe to make the passage, particularly because Iran's foreign minister has stated that transit will be under Iranian military management. Many questions remain for shipowners and their captains over whether it is safe to navigate through the strait. The disruption has been compounded by the forced shutdown of oil and gas production across the Gulf as storage facilities reached capacity. In addition, many key energy production sites have been damaged by drone attacks. Experts have said it could take months or years to fully restore the Gulf's energy production. Energy markets have fallen sharply on the hope that millions of barrels of crude oil and gas trapped in the Gulf could soon help to relieve a crisis that the International Energy Agency has said is more serious than the energy flashpoints in 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. However, traders are also expected to price in a continuing 'geopolitical risk premium' to reflect uncertainty over whether the ceasefire will hold.

After Tehran announced a two‑week ceasefire in the Iran war, financial markets breathed a noticeable sigh of relief. Oil prices tumbled by more than 10% on Wednesday, stock indices rallied, and optimism about the global economic outlook resurfaced. However, the reprieve is far from complete.For six weeks the world’s economy has been under pressure as Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas shipments. The closure sparked what analysts have called the worst energy crisis of the modern era, driving oil to historic highs.Any progress toward re‑opening Hormuz would ease fears of a supply crunch that could otherwise trigger a cascade of recession risks. Yet the situation remains volatile: Tehran and Washington continue to send mixed signals about the waterway’s status, and Israel’s ongoing strikes in Lebanon add further uncertainty.Consumers already feel the strain. Despite the recent price dip, Brent crude remains above $90 a barrel, a sharp contrast to the sub‑$73 levels recorded before the conflict began. While this is an improvement from the period when prices hovered above $100, it still represents a significant premium over pre‑war benchmarks.Most economists expect oil to stay above its pre‑war price throughout 2026. In its baseline forecast, consultancy Capital Economics projects Brent to settle around $80 per barrel by year‑end. Under that scenario, headline inflation in the United States and Europe would hover between 3% and 4% year‑on‑year, while GDP growth is likely to decelerate across major economies.The lingering uncertainty is amplified by the unpredictable stances of both Iran and the United States, as well as the broader geopolitical turbulence involving Israel. Prior to the conflict, few analysts believed Tehran would actually close Hormuz, a threat it has floated intermittently since the 1979 revolution.Given the strait’s pivotal role in the world economy, any prolonged disruption could add a costly premium to global business operations. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned in a recent report that wars since 1946 have left “economic scars” lasting more than a decade. The IMF cautioned that even after a ceasefire, persistent political and economic uncertainty can depress investment returns, fuel capital outflows, and constrain both investment and labor supply.In short, while the ceasefire has delivered a short‑term boost to markets, the underlying energy‑price pressures and geopolitical risks mean that the relief is far from absolute.

The fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel faced a serious crisis on Wednesday as both sides presented conflicting accounts of the agreement. The development raised concerns about the potential collapse of the truce.Israel escalated its military operations in Lebanon, launching its heaviest attack yet on over 100 targets, resulting in at least 254 fatalities. This move directly contradicts the claims of Iran and Pakistan, who brokered the 11th-hour truce and asserted that the ceasefire included Lebanon.In response, Iran halted the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing an alleged Israeli breach of the ceasefire. The Fars news agency reported that oil prices had dropped sharply below $100 a barrel following the truce announcement, leading to a global stock market surge.The White House disputed Iran's claims about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, calling the reports 'false' and stating that US President Donald Trump expected it to reopen 'immediately, quickly and safely.' The US signaled its continued adherence to the ceasefire, even as it threatened to unravel.Iran and the US have different interpretations of the agreement. Trump conveyed a version suggesting a 15-point proposal from the US, which included no enrichment of uranium and the destruction of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile. In contrast, Iran's 10-point plan, which Trump initially referred to as a 'workable basis for negotiation,' included the right to enrich uranium and the full lifting of sanctions.The US and Iran are set to engage in talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, this weekend, with a US negotiating team led by Vice-President JD Vance. The talks aim to cement the ceasefire into a more durable peace agreement, but significant gaps remain to be bridged.The situation in the Gulf remains fragile, with the US and Israel claiming to have destroyed Iran's industrial base and significant military assets. Iran, on the other hand, portrays the truce as a victory, with senior politician Ali Akbar Velayati stating that 'America was forced to accept a ceasefire.'

Donald Trump's decision to accept a two-week ceasefire in Iran has created a stir within his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, with some supporters expressing mixed reactions to the development. While some have defended the president's decision, others have accused him of betrayal and capitulation.The ceasefire, which was agreed upon after more than a month of war, has been hailed as a victory by both the US and Iran. However, critics argue that the agreement has failed to achieve its objectives, with Iran's regime still intact and its nuclear facilities persisting. The strait of Hormuz remains closed, and fighting continues in Lebanon.Dinesh D'Souza, a right-wing commentator, defended Trump on social media, stating that the president had outsmarted his critics and proved himself to be the adult in the room. Similarly, Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, expressed confidence in Trump's decision-making, citing his real, actionable intelligence.However, not all supporters are convinced. Matthew Feinberg, a self-described 'MAGA Jew', expressed disappointment, stating that the ceasefire allows the IRGC to regroup and rearm. Laura Loomer, an activist and Islamophobe, also criticized the outcome, saying that the negotiation didn't yield any significant benefits for the US.The Pew Research survey found that, among Republicans, there had been an 18-point decline in confidence in Trump's policymaking about Iran since 2024. Despite this, Republicans aged 65 and older remain overwhelmingly confident in Trump's ability to make good decisions on Iran.

Footage captured on the streets of Tehran shows small groups of citizens gathering around Enghelab Square – a historic rally point for pro‑regime supporters – some waving Iranian flags, others draped over their backs. The atmosphere is far from uniform; debates and arguments erupted shortly after the ceasefire announcement, reflecting a spectrum of emotions from shock to tentative hope.The video, posted by Majid Nouri – son of former prison official Hamid Nouri – includes his running commentary. He notes that the discussions began around 3 a.m. and continued into the morning, with participants expressing both anger and disbelief. "In no way do we trust America," Nouri declared, echoing a sentiment he says is shared by virtually every Iranian.Pro‑government demonstrators were heard chanting "Death to America, death to Israel, death to compromisers!" and burning U.S. and Israeli flags, according to the Associated Press. The chants persisted despite attempts by organizers to calm the crowd, underscoring the depth of anti‑Western feeling among hardliners.While the ceasefire halted active hostilities, the war has already claimed at least 1,900 lives in Iran. With internet services largely blacked out, gauging the broader public mood is challenging, but pockets of Tehran reported subdued celebrations in the early hours of Wednesday.Local resident Ali, a 31‑year‑old, summed up the prevailing uncertainty: "Most people here don’t trust the US and still don’t know exactly what is going to happen, so they are unsure whether they should be happy or worried." He warned that the ceasefire’s two‑week duration offers no guarantee of lasting peace.Business owners are beginning to test the waters. Hamid, a 43‑year‑old shopkeeper whose grocery and cleaning‑supplies store closed after the February bombings, said, "Today feels like there is no war," and he has reopened his shop, hoping to recover lost income for his family.Iranian officials are framing the pause as a diplomatic victory. Former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati posted on X that the conflict has reshaped the global power balance, positioning Iran within a new multipolar order. President Masoud Pezeshkian praised the ceasefire as the fruit of the blood of Iran’s “great martyred leader” and the collective will of the people.Strategically, the ceasefire highlights Tehran’s ability to disrupt the vital Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global oil shipments. Analysts note that this leverage could bolster Iran’s negotiating stance, even as former U.S. President Donald Trump previously warned that a full‑scale clash would threaten "a whole civilisation." As sunrise illuminated the capital, daily life resumed with shops reopening and traffic returning to the streets, yet the prevailing mood remains a blend of exhaustion, cautious optimism, and lingering mistrust of the United States.

Pakistan's diplomatic efforts have yielded a significant breakthrough, securing a temporary ceasefire between the US and Iran. The development comes after intense negotiations led by Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir.The crisis had escalated to a point where Pakistan's government and military were deeply concerned about the potential consequences for the country's economy, defense, national security, and sectarian harmony. A defense pact with Saudi Arabia meant that if Riyadh entered the war, Pakistan would be drawn into it as well.Behind the scenes, Munir and Asim Malik, the country's head of army intelligence and national security adviser, played a crucial role in mediating the ceasefire. Munir's strong personal rapport with US President Donald Trump and his longstanding relationship with Iran's Revolutionary Guards were instrumental in brokering the deal.China emerged as a key player in the negotiations, with Pakistani officials claiming that Beijing directly encouraged Iran to accept a ceasefire, promising to act as a guarantor of Iran's safety in any talks. This included assurances that Iranian leaders would not be assassinated if they traveled for negotiations.The ceasefire deal was secured by 4am in Islamabad, with both the US and Iran agreeing to a temporary and fragile truce. Michael Kugelman, south Asia fellow at the Atlantic council, described it as Pakistan's 'biggest diplomatic win in years'.Pakistani officials have expressed concerns that Israel and the United Arab Emirates could still try to sabotage the peace process. However, the successful brokering of the ceasefire has been hailed as a 'shining moment' in Pakistan's history and a 'first step' towards peace.

The recent escalation between the US and Iran has brought the world to the edge of a potentially devastating conflict. US President Donald Trump's threat to attack Iran if it didn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz sparked a global outcry and raised concerns of a wider conflict.Trump's public threat to commit genocide sent shockwaves through the United States, with over 70 Democratic members of Congress calling for his removal from office. The Iranian government and people were also shocked, with thousands forming human chains around bridges and power stations that Trump might strike.Faced with the prospect of a catastrophic war, Trump chose to back away from his threat and instead claimed that he had granted Pakistan's request for a two-week ceasefire. However, the Iranian foreign minister tweeted that Trump had agreed to accept Tehran's 10-point plan as a general framework for negotiations.The chasm between the two sides remains vast, with major differences on issues such as sanctions relief and Iran's ballistic missile stocks. A mega-deal remains the only path to averting a return to full-scale war, but it will require compromises and adept diplomacy from both sides.If there's no firm deal, the conflict will almost certainly reignite. The US and Iran have agreed to a temporary ceasefire, but Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz and retains the military muscle to spark a worldwide recession.