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The conflict in Iran has underscored how fragile a world built on fossil fuels truly is, with disruptions to oil, gas and fertilizer shipments adding millions of tonnes of greenhouse‑gas emissions to an already critical climate system.While Saudi Arabia and other petrostates blocked any mention of a fossil‑fuel phase‑out at the UN COP30 summit last November, a new diplomatic effort is gathering momentum outside the UN framework.On 28‑29 April, Colombia will host the First International Conference on the Just Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. Unlike UN negotiations, the summit will be decided by majority vote, preventing a handful of countries from derailing progress.The event is co‑sponsored by Colombia – the world’s fifth‑largest coal exporter – and the Netherlands, home to Royal Dutch Shell. Organisers have invited nations that supported the COP30 roadmap, as well as sub‑national leaders such as California Governor Gavin Newsom, a potential 2028 U.S. presidential contender.Delegates, described as a “coalition of the willing”, will share concrete plans to shift their economies away from fossil fuels while safeguarding workers and communities. Climate activists, Indigenous representatives and trade‑union leaders will also contribute ideas for turning the abstract goal of decarbonisation into actionable policy.One focal point will be the reduction of the $7 trillion per year in global fossil‑fuel subsidies, a figure that the International Energy Agency warns could be trimmed without harming the livelihoods that depend on these funds. UN Secretary‑General António Guterres has urged the International Energy Agency to create a platform that aligns the decline of fossil‑fuel investment with rapid clean‑energy expansion.The real leverage of this coalition lies in its economic weight. The 85 countries that backed the COP30 roadmap together account for a gross national product of $33.3 trillion—surpassing the United States’ $30.6 trillion and far exceeding China’s $19.4 trillion.If the Just Transition conference produces a credible, market‑oriented plan, it could send a clear signal to investors and policymakers that the era of oil, gas and coal is ending, prompting a reallocation of capital away from stranded‑asset risks.Adding California’s $4.1 trillion GDP to the coalition’s total would create an economic bloc of roughly $37.4 trillion, approaching the combined $50 trillion output of the United States and China.Newsom has repeatedly positioned California as a climate leader, noting that two‑thirds of the state’s electricity now comes from non‑carbon sources and that its economy has risen from the world’s sixth to fourth largest. He pledged that California will fill the void left by the United States’ retreat from the Paris Agreement by competing in global green‑technology markets.Public opinion supports such a shift: between 80 % and 89 % of the world’s population wants stronger climate action. The upcoming conference therefore represents a pivotal chance to translate widespread demand into a coordinated, economically powerful push for a fossil‑fuel‑free future.

In the run-up to the state assembly election in Assam, India, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is employing a strategy that combines Hindu nationalism with welfare schemes to woo voters.The party, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has been accused of pursuing a hardline Hindu supremacist agenda in Assam, coupled with a xenophobic campaign targeting the state's Muslim population, which constitutes 34% of Assam's 31 million people.At a recent election rally in Morigaon district, BJP leaders highlighted the welfare schemes launched by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma's government, including a direct benefit transfer scheme called Orunodoi, which provides financial aid to women. Nitin Nabin, the BJP's national president, claimed these schemes benefited the Assamese people, especially women.The BJP's strategy in Assam has been described as a 'cocktail of Hindutva and welfarism' by Akhil Ranjan Dutta, a political science professor at Assam's Gauhati University. 'The BJP is experimenting with a brand of Hindutva by co-opting Indigenous armed struggle and cultural nationalism, while solidifying Hindu identity and othering the Bengali Muslims.'The party's election promises have heightened anxiety among Bengali-speaking Muslims, who fear more crackdowns on their community, including a proposal to implement a Uniform Civil Code, which critics say will override Muslim personal laws.Opposition parties and analysts argue that the BJP is mainly milking two cash transfer schemes – Orunodoi and Udyamita – to influence voters in this election. Economist Joydeep Baruah estimates that at least 10 to 15% of the scheme's four million women beneficiaries could vote for the BJP.The BJP's tactics have been criticized by opposition parties and human rights groups, who accuse the party of vote buying and polarizing the electorate along communal lines.

The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the consequences of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's promise of an 'easy' war. When Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in December, he came with an appeal and a subtle inducement.Netanyahu had suggested a final benefit to Trump: defeating Iran would allow Israel to wean itself off its massive reliance on US military aid. However, the reality of the conflict has been far from easy, with Iran's resilient regime and the ongoing Middle East war showing no signs of abating.The conflict has also had significant implications for global diplomacy, with Emmanuel Macron reflecting a widespread view that US and Israeli strikes on Iran would not provide a durable solution to Tehran's nuclear program. The war has undermined Nato and potentially emboldened China, Russia, and North Korea.The conflict has also led to a decline in support for Israel globally, with polls showing a decline in support for Israel across the political spectrum in the US, particularly among Democrats and young voters. A Gallup survey released recently showed that Americans are more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israelis for the first time since Gallup began measuring that question in 2001.

The UK Prime Minister's recent comments on seeking closer relations with the EU are a step in the right direction, but a piecemeal approach to repairing the damage done by Brexit is unlikely to succeed.A more ambitious plan would be for Labour to announce a referendum on whether the UK should open negotiations on re-entry to the EU, promising a general election to secure a mandate to implement the proposal should the British public vote in favour. This would allow the government to seize the initiative and provide it with an issue around which to rally a broad base of electoral support.This approach would also expose the increasing reluctance of Reform UK and the Conservatives to defend Brexit and silence accusations of the betrayal of British voters.Ultimately, it would provide a practical route for restoring Britain to its rightful place within the EU, at a time when shifts in the global order make that task more urgent than ever.

Two weeks after the United States and Israel entered a direct conflict with Iran, the White House faced mounting criticism that the war would drive up fuel costs and anger voters. Former President Donald Trump attempted to calm concerns on Truth Social, noting that the United States is the world’s largest oil producer and that higher prices translate into higher revenues for American companies. Now, five weeks into the hostilities, the reality is becoming clear: defense contractors and oil companies are the primary beneficiaries of the escalating energy market. The Department of Defense announced that Boeing will partner with Lockheed Martin to triple U.S. production of missile seekers, a move that sent Lockheed Martin’s stock up 25% since the start of the year. The announcement also lifted Boeing’s share price, underscoring how wartime procurement is boosting aerospace valuations. At the same time, Iran’s continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one‑fifth of global oil and gas flows—has pushed U.S. crude from $65 to over $110 per barrel in just a month. Pump prices have mirrored this surge, breaking the $4‑a‑gallon barrier for the first time since 2022. Oil majors have responded with sharp stock gains; ExxonMobil, Shell and Chevron have each risen more than 20% year‑to‑date. According to market‑research firm Rystad Energy, U.S. oil producers stand to earn an additional $63 billion as barrels trade above $100. “Oil prices in March have been materially higher than anyone expected, delivering a windfall for the vast majority of U.S. energy companies,” said Leo Mariani, senior analyst at Roth Capital Partners. The last comparable price shock occurred in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when U.S. gasoline peaked at $5 per gallon and inflation surged to 9%. That episode generated $916 billion in global oil‑and‑gas profits, with U.S. firms accounting for $281 billion. Chevron’s subsequent $75 billion stock‑buyback program—seven times its prior year’s amount—illustrates how quickly companies can translate price spikes into shareholder returns. Research by economists Gregor Semieniuk and Isabella Weber revealed that in 2022, 50% of oil‑company profits went to the top 1% of Americans, while the bottom half of the wealth distribution captured just 1% of those gains. Analysts warn that the current conflict could generate even larger windfalls because it has damaged actual production capacity in the Middle East, not merely reshuffled supply. “You’re benefiting a lot more from higher prices than you are from lost production,” Mariani noted, emphasizing the outsized profit potential. Even if hostilities cease, restoring pre‑conflict output in the region may take months, prolonging the supply crunch. As senior fellow Clay Seagle of the Center for Strategic and International Studies explains, the current situation differs from 2022: “Now we’re dealing with a much more severe supply event because the oil has been actually removed from the market.” Prolonged high prices could eventually curb demand, as consumers and businesses seek alternatives—a shift seen after the 1970s oil shocks when the U.S. moved away from oil‑generated electricity. Nonetheless, many sectors remain vulnerable: diesel, a key fuel for trucks and aircraft, has risen 40%, and airline stocks such as United and American have fallen more than 15% since the year began. Moreover, disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) production threaten fertilizer supplies essential for agriculture. Semieniuk cautions that “we’re approaching the kinds of disruption levels we saw in 2022, and with that, the kinds of profits that we saw there. If this takes longer, it’s going to surpass that.”

Progressive candidate Abdul El‑Sayed’s alliance with left‑wing Twitch streamer Hasan Piker has ignited a sharp rift within Michigan’s tightly contested three‑way Senate race, pitting establishment favorite Mallory McMorrow against a pro‑Israel coalition supporting Rep. Haley Stevens. McMorrow, backed by the Democratic establishment, the Anti‑Defamation League, the Trump administration, and prominent pro‑Israel figures, has condemned Piker as antisemitic and warned that his involvement could alienate voters still reeling from the recent Temple Israel synagogue attack. In contrast, El‑Sayed and Piker announced a joint rally last week, prompting McMorrow’s camp to label the partnership a political liability. Seven Arab American leaders interviewed by the Guardian argue that the attacks on El‑Sayed and Piker are both strategic missteps and moral blunders that repeat the mistakes that cost the Democrats in Michigan in 2024. Michigan houses the nation’s highest per‑capita Arab American population, anchored by a large Lebanese diaspora. The ongoing Israeli assault on southern Lebanon—displacing over 1 million civilians and destroying villages—has hit the community hard, with many families directly affected. "Arabs get the pressure and Israel gets compassion," said James Zogby of the Democratic National Committee, underscoring the perceived double standard. Arab American leaders contend that the Democratic focus on Israel while sidelining Lebanese and Muslim concerns could erode crucial voter support. Data from the 2024 election illustrate the risk: Kamala Harris lost Michigan by roughly 80,000 votes, with some analysts estimating that her pro‑Israel stance cost her an additional 100,000 votes. A Guardian analysis found a 22,000‑vote swing away from Democrats in the three cities with the largest Arab American and Muslim populations. National polling now shows a dramatic shift among Democratic voters: support for Israel’s war in Gaza has fallen to an all‑time low of 8%, while a majority favor an arms embargo on Israel. Piker, who commands a 3‑million‑strong Twitch audience, consistently voices sympathy for Palestinians and calls for an embargo, positioning himself as a bridge to younger, progressive voters. Despite the controversy, El‑Sayed maintains that winning requires dialogue with all constituencies, even those outside the progressive bubble, noting his recent appearance on Fox News. He warned that every dollar spent on what he calls an "illegal, unjustified war in Iran" diverts resources from schools, healthcare, and infrastructure in Michigan. As the 2028 election cycle looms, Arab American leaders caution that the Democratic Party’s handling of the Israel‑Palestine issue in this swing state could have lasting repercussions, potentially reshaping the party’s fortunes in the Midwest.

The new Reform UK promotion, dubbed “Nigel cut my bills,” asks voters to surrender personal details – name, phone, email and voting history – for a chance that Nigel Farage will foot their energy bills for a year. The concept reads like a scripted MrBeast video: a charismatic host appears on a suburban street, hands out cash, and celebrates each winner with upbeat music and on‑screen tallies. While the party frames the scheme as a bold, voter‑engaging move, privacy advocates have already flagged potential breaches of data‑protection law. More troubling, however, is what the stunt signifies: the “MrBeastification” of British politics, where flashy giveaways replace substantive policy debate. Reform UK’s website touts a suite of promised savings if it wins the next election: scrapping VAT on energy bills (a £85 reduction), eliminating Labour’s green levy (£100), and removing the carbon tax (£15). The messaging is clear – Farage is portrayed as a man who puts money directly into voters’ pockets. Yet the underlying issue of soaring energy costs is oversimplified. Bills are high not because of the mentioned taxes, but because the UK’s electricity price is tied to volatile gas market prices. Farage’s advocacy for renewed North Sea drilling would lock the country into this volatility, offering short‑term relief at the expense of long‑term energy security. Earlier, Reform UK floated a controversial policy targeting non‑domiciled residents: a one‑off charge of £250,000 for a ten‑year renewable residence permit, with proceeds earmarked for low‑paid workers. Critics argue the fee merely shifts the burden onto wealthy foreigners while providing negligible benefit to ordinary voters. In the world of viral giveaways, the spectacle often masks deeper shortcomings. As the article notes, after MrBeast hands cash to a homeless man, he probes the man’s backstory, revealing systemic issues that a single payment cannot solve. Similarly, Reform’s grand gestures risk being tokenistic, offering temporary excitement without addressing the structural challenges of the UK’s energy market. Ultimately, the “Nigel cut my bills” competition may capture attention, but it also underscores a shift toward sensationalist political communication that prioritises instant gratification over meaningful policy solutions.

When Corentin Roudaut arrived in Paris a decade ago, he swapped his student‑era bike for a car, daunted by the city’s traffic and lack of cyclist protection. After a protected lane opened on Boulevard Voltaire in the 11th arrondissement, he reclaimed his two‑wheel commute and now volunteers with the cycling advocacy group Paris en Selle, witnessing a city that has shed its car‑centric image.Roudaut notes that the shift “started slowly but really accelerated in the last ten years,” with a growing network of bike routes that is becoming safe and nearly complete in many districts.Mayor Anne Hidalgo’s 12‑year agenda reshaped Paris’s urban fabric. Since taking office in 2014, her administration planted 155,000 trees, created several hundred kilometres of segregated bike lanes, pedestrianised 300 school streets, and banned cars from the banks of the Seine. Former parking spaces have been turned into green plazas and café terraces, reducing the risk of children being hit while walking to school.As Hidalgo departs on Sunday, her legacy is touted as a blueprint for progressive European cities, especially as some national governments retreat from green initiatives.Nevertheless, the reforms have sparked pushback. Motorists object to the loss of road space, and recent referendums on higher parking charges for SUVs and further school‑street pedestrianisation suffered low voter turnouts. Right‑wing mayoral candidate Rachida Dati described the new public‑space regime as “anxiety‑inducing,” though she stopped short of promising a reversal.In a candid interview, Hidalgo described the Seine‑bank pedestrianisation as “a tough battle” that, once won, left residents reluctant to revert to car traffic. She highlighted a generation of children who have never known cars on those riverbanks, prompting awe‑filled reactions from visitors.Urban scholars attribute the rapid change to Paris’s tight administrative boundaries, which limit suburban influence on city transport decisions, and to groundwork laid by previous mayors. Yet they stress that political courage was essential to implement measures that inconvenienced drivers while delivering social and environmental benefits.Environmental epidemiologist Audrey de Nazelle of Imperial College London, a Paris native, praised the transformation as “fabulous” and warned that many cities lack the bravery to pursue similar legacies.A recent report placed Paris among 19 global cities that cut two major toxic air pollutants between 2010 and 2024. While Brussels and Warsaw saw faster declines in fine‑particle matter, London outpaced Paris in reducing nitrogen‑dioxide levels.By contrast, Berlin—despite opening a new inner‑city motorway and scrapping 30 km/h speed limits on key streets—still records a higher share of cyclists than Paris.Transport researcher Giulio Mattioli argues that Paris simply needed to add bike lanes to unlock latent demand, noting that the city started from a lower baseline but quickly caught up with peers.However, the transformation remains uneven. The extensive suburbs continue to be dominated by cars, hemmed in by the 35 km Boulevard Périphérique ring road. Analyst Jean‑Louis Missika of think‑tank Terra Nova stresses that “as long as this motorway encircles Paris, the Greater Paris metropolis will remain an administrative construct devoid of urban reality.” He calls for dismantling or repurposing the ring road to achieve a truly post‑car metropolis.

Approximately two dozen Democratic‑led states and the District of Columbia have lodged a federal lawsuit against President Donald Trump to block a newly issued executive order that would sharply limit mail‑in and absentee voting. The filing, submitted on Friday, comes as voting‑rights groups warn the measure is designed to make voting harder ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, which will decide control of both chambers of Congress. New York Attorney General Letitia James, representing 23 states and D.C., said the order "exceeds the president’s constitutional authority" and undermines the principle that states set the times, places and manner of elections. "Free and fair elections are the cornerstone of our democracy, and no president has the power to rewrite the rules on his own," James stated. The contested order, signed on Tuesday, directs the Department of Homeland Security to compile a nationwide list of eligible voters and instructs the United States Postal Service to deliver ballots only to individuals on a "State‑specific Mail‑in and Absentee Participation List." Critics argue the list would be incomplete and would place an undue burden on the USPS. Voting‑rights advocates note that mail‑in voting surged after the COVID‑19 pandemic, with one‑third of all 2024 ballots cast by mail, a trend that cuts across both Republican and Democratic states. In their complaint, the states contend that only Congress, not the president, may impose new restrictions on election administration, and that implementing such changes so close to the November vote would generate significant logistical chaos. President Trump maintains the action is needed to combat "rampant voter fraud," a claim repeatedly debunked by independent monitors, including the Heritage Foundation, which reports fraud rates are exceedingly low. Beyond the lawsuit, the Justice Department has pursued separate legal actions to obtain voter data, and the FBI’s recent raid on a Georgia election office has heightened concerns about election integrity. Trump is also urging Congress to pass the "SAVE America Act", which would require proof of U.S. citizenship—such as a birth certificate or passport—and a photo ID for ballot casting. Rights groups warn the proposal could disenfranchise many voters, including women who have changed their surnames after marriage.