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For Konstantin, a 53‑year‑old resident of St Petersburg, the war in Ukraine has become a literal scent in the air. Over the past fortnight he has repeatedly detected the acrid odor of burning crude, fuel and chemicals drifting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s two largest Baltic oil terminals. The facilities at Ust‑Luga and Primorsk together handle about 40% of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Both ports lie within 150 km of St Petersburg, making the smoke visible – and smelt – to locals. Ukrainian drones have flown more than 1,000 km from the front lines to strike storage tanks and loading infrastructure, igniting fires that have burned for days. The smell, described by Konstantin as a mix of diesel exhaust, burning plastic and rotten eggs, first appeared in late March. These attacks are a key element of Kyiv’s strategy to erode Russia’s “unexpected windfall” from oil exports, a revenue stream that has surged as the US‑Israel campaign against Iran pushed global oil prices higher. Satellite imagery shows extensive damage at both terminals, with Ust‑Luga’s sprawling processing complex blackened by fire. As a result, both ports are currently unable to dispatch cargo, forcing traders to reroute oil to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume. Financial analysts estimate that the disruption has already cost Moscow roughly $1 billion in lost export earnings, according to Bloomberg data released on March 31. Moreover, every $10 rise in global oil prices translates into about $1.6 billion of additional monthly income for the Kremlin. Russian officials have blamed European nations for allegedly facilitating the drone overflights, but Ukrainian experts dispute this claim. Andrey Pronin, a pioneer of Ukraine’s drone warfare, emphasized that the strikes are meticulously planned to stay within Russian airspace, bypassing air‑defence systems. Since the campaign began, Ukrainian forces have targeted 13 oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic coast to the Volga region. The attacks are timed to coincide with the heightened profitability Russia enjoys from the Iran‑related oil price surge, according to researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University. Beyond the immediate economic impact, Kyiv views the strikes as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the idea of a temporary moratorium on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for concessions, though the strategy also inadvertently benefits Iran by sustaining higher oil prices. On the tactical side, Ukraine now relies heavily on FP‑1 drones produced by the domestic Firepoint company. These unmanned aircraft can carry up to 120 kg of explosives and travel roughly 1,500 km, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. For civilians living near the conflict zones, the nightly “fireworks” of explosions have become a grim routine. Abdulla, a Tatar resident of Crimea, described the constant shelling as a new normal, while analysts note that President Vladimir Putin remains resolute, using the ongoing talks with the White House as a diplomatic façade. Overall, the Ukrainian drone campaign illustrates how modern warfare increasingly intertwines kinetic attacks with strategic economic disruption, reshaping the dynamics of the Russia‑Ukraine war and its broader geopolitical reverberations.

Ukraine's military has launched a significant drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, targeting the port of Novorossiysk. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, the overnight attack hit the Admiral Makarov missile carrier in the port, which serves as Russia's largest oil exporting outlet on the Black Sea.The attack is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy exports and reduce Moscow's revenues. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, aiming to halt Russian oil exports and impact the Russian economy.Russian authorities reported that at least eight people, including two children, were injured in Novorossiysk. Videos posted on Telegram showed a fire at one of the oil port's docks. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko stated that debris from drones had fallen on two locations in the city, including a residential area.Russia's military claimed that air defense units had downed 148 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, located in the Novorossiysk port area, exports oil from Kazakhstan and has major US oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, as shareholders.The attack on Novorossiysk comes amid a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. On the previous day, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. These attacks are part of Ukraine's efforts to reduce Moscow's revenues from oil sales, which are crucial for the Russian economy.In response to the attacks, Russia's Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting the CPC terminal to inflict economic damage on its largest shareholders, including US and Kazakh energy companies.

The global oil trade is facing a chokepoint crisis, with Libya's oil disputes mirroring the situation in the Hormuz Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transportation, was briefly closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, causing Brent crude oil prices to soar to nearly $120 a barrel.Libya, with its strategically located oil terminals on the northeastern coast, has become a crucial player in the global oil trade. The country's light, sweet grades of oil are particularly valuable to European refiners. However, Libya's political instability and factional oil deals are threatening to disrupt oil supplies, with Europe's energy security hanging in the balance.The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, controls the territory where Libya's oil is located, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli signs oil contracts. This has led to a situation where Tripoli may sign oil contracts, but Haftar decides whether oil actually flows. The Arkenu agreement, a private oil company linked to the Haftar family, was recently terminated due to corruption allegations, leaving the future of Libya's oil supplies uncertain.The US is attempting to broker new talks between Tripoli and Haftar's camp, but a deal is not yet certain. Meanwhile, European energy security is at risk, with the Mediterranean Sea becoming a battleground for proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The sabotage of oil infrastructure and attacks on tankers are exacerbating the situation, highlighting the need for a stable and secure oil supply to Europe.

US President Donald Trump has issued a stern warning to Iran, stating that the Tuesday deadline for Tehran to agree to free passage through the Strait of Hormuz is final. Failure to comply will result in US strikes on Iranian infrastructure, he emphasized.On Monday, Trump described an Iranian proposal aimed at ending the conflict as 'a significant step' but insufficient to avert US action. The proposal, which includes 10 clauses such as an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and reconstruction, was conveyed to the US via intermediaries.The Iranian proposal was put forward after Pakistan suggested a 45-day ceasefire, which Iran reportedly rejected, seeking a permanent end to hostilities instead. Iran's diplomatic mission head in Cairo, Mojtaba Ferdousi Pour, stressed that Tehran would only accept an end to the war with guarantees that it wouldn't be attacked again.The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil supplies pass, has been a focal point of the conflict. Trump's threat to destroy Iranian infrastructure unless the strait is reopened has caused oil prices to surge and shaken the global economy.Earlier on Monday, Israel struck a key petrochemical plant in Iran's South Pars gas field, killing two commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel claimed responsibility for the strike, which appeared separate from Trump's threats.The White House confirmed that a ceasefire proposal was under consideration but stated that Trump had 'not signed off' on it. The conflict, sparked by Israeli and US attacks on Iran on February 28, has seen Iran fire missiles at targets across the Middle East.Trump has been vocal about his stance, suggesting that Iran's leaders are 'animals' who have killed tens of thousands of protesters and expressing that he is 'highly unlikely' to postpone the deadline. When asked about concerns that attacks on infrastructure could be classified as war crimes, Trump responded that he is 'not worried about it,' emphasizing that allowing Iran to have a nuclear weapon would be a greater war crime.

Yemen's Houthi rebels have announced that they, along with their backers Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah, have launched a coordinated attack on Israel. The assault involved a barrage of cruise missiles and drones aimed at several vital and military sites belonging to Israel. The attack was confirmed by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree, who stated that the operation was a show of solidarity with the Palestinians. This development marks a significant escalation in the Middle East conflict, drawing in multiple actors from the region. The Houthis, who control much of northern Yemen, have been involved in the conflict since March 28, when they officially joined the war in support of Iran. They have previously targeted Israel and disrupted shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden as a show of solidarity with the Palestinians during the Israeli war on Gaza. In related developments, Israeli officials reported that the bodies of four people killed in an Iranian strike on a residential building in Haifa had been recovered. This comes as Israel continues to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, with recent strikes hitting Beirut's southern suburbs and other areas in the country's south. The Israeli military has been pounding Lebanon, saying it is targeting Hezbollah terror targets. On Sunday, Israel struck two Amana petrol stations controlled by Hezbollah, which served as significant financial infrastructure for the group. In south Lebanon, four people were killed in a raid on a car in Kfar Rumman. Lebanon's Health Ministry reported that an Israeli attack killed a paramedic from the Hezbollah-allied Risala Scout Association on Monday. Two paramedics from the Islamic Health Committee were also killed in an Israeli strike a day earlier. The World Health Organization (WHO) has verified 92 attacks on health facilities, medical vehicles, personnel, and warehouses in the region. The conflict has resulted in significant casualties, with Lebanon reporting 1,497 people killed since the war erupted, including 57 health workers. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing strikes and counter-strikes threatening to expand the conflict further.

The recent conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the consequences of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's promise of an 'easy' war. When Netanyahu met with US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in December, he came with an appeal and a subtle inducement.Netanyahu had suggested a final benefit to Trump: defeating Iran would allow Israel to wean itself off its massive reliance on US military aid. However, the reality of the conflict has been far from easy, with Iran's resilient regime and the ongoing Middle East war showing no signs of abating.The conflict has also had significant implications for global diplomacy, with Emmanuel Macron reflecting a widespread view that US and Israeli strikes on Iran would not provide a durable solution to Tehran's nuclear program. The war has undermined Nato and potentially emboldened China, Russia, and North Korea.The conflict has also led to a decline in support for Israel globally, with polls showing a decline in support for Israel across the political spectrum in the US, particularly among Democrats and young voters. A Gallup survey released recently showed that Americans are more sympathetic to Palestinians than Israelis for the first time since Gallup began measuring that question in 2001.

President Donald Trump’s recent proclamation that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face a combined "Power Plant Day" and "Bridge Day" has thrust senior U.S. officers into a stark ethical quandary: obey a presidential directive that could breach international law, or risk court‑martial for insubordination. In a post on his Truth Social platform, Trump warned that failure to comply would result in an unprecedented strike on Iran’s civilian energy infrastructure, a move that legal scholars agree would amount to a war crime against 93 million civilians. Two former judge‑advocate general officers, Margaret Donovan and Rachel VanLandingham, emphasized that such rhetoric, if acted upon, would place service members on a “path of no return,” directly contradicting the extensive legal training that defines permissible orders. Historical precedent underscores the gravity of the situation. During the Vietnam War, officers who participated in the My Lai massacre were ultimately held accountable, with the court rejecting the “just following orders” defence as the orders were deemed “palpably illegal.” Professor Charli Carpenter of the University of Massachusetts Amherst notes that while many troops can identify manifestly unlawful commands in surveys, translating that awareness into real‑time refusal is far more challenging, especially when the military culture heavily emphasizes obedience to the chain of command. Since assuming office, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reshaped the Pentagon’s legal advisory structure, dismissing senior JAG officials and dismantling the Civilian Harm Mitigation and Response unit created under the previous administration. Consequently, service members now rely on a “GI rights hotline,” whose usage has reportedly surged under the current leadership. Beyond conventional strikes, Trump’s escalating rhetoric has raised alarms about the potential use of nuclear force. Under U.S. protocol, the president alone can initiate a nuclear launch, with the “nuclear football” – a briefcase containing strike options and authentication codes – handed to a close aide. The only safeguard is for senior commanders to deem such an order illegal, a step that experts fear may never occur. Former Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley, during the previous administration, reportedly instructed senior officers to stay involved in any nuclear decision due to concerns about Trump’s volatility. Nuclear weapons scholar Jeffrey Lewis now warns that confidence in any contemporary intervention is essentially nonexistent, citing Trump’s pattern of purging dissenting military personnel. As the deadline looms, the United States faces a precarious balance between upholding international humanitarian law and navigating a command structure that may be unwilling or unable to challenge the commander‑in‑chief’s most extreme directives.

Article 52 of the first Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions bars attacks on civilian targets. The International Criminal Court has already issued arrest warrants for Russian officers involved in strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid, a precedent that would apply to the United States if President Donald Trump’s threats to bomb Iran were carried out. Trump, alongside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, has adopted a tone that resembles a “blood‑thirsty fever dream.” Hegseth framed the proposed Operation Epic Fury as a 21st‑century crusade, while Trump unleashed a profanity‑laden tirade demanding the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day… Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell.” This rhetoric, emerging just before the United States’ 250th independence anniversary, undermines the credibility of the presidency and the nation’s moral standing. The editorial notes that, in a more restrained political climate, senators like Chris Murphy might explore constitutional avenues to remove Trump, but the current cabinet’s “craven complicity” makes such prospects remote. The international community now watches anxiously, fearing that a broader escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran could trigger “unknowable and spiralling consequences.” Iran has signaled it could widen its attacks across the region, and the recent closure of the Hormuz Strait demonstrates that Trump’s threats are not merely rhetorical. NATO allies have declined to endorse Trump’s approach, citing the absence of a coherent strategy and a lack of legal justification. They hope the president’s apocalyptic language masks a genuine search for a rapid de‑escalation, especially as global economic pressure mounts. Trump later claimed there was a “good chance” of a cease‑fire with Iran before his deadline, yet hours later Israel bombed a key petrochemical plant in Iran’s largest gas field, contradicting any notion of imminent peace. During a White House press briefing, Trump and Hegseth highlighted the rescue of a missing U.S. fighter crew shot down over Iran, a moment that starkly contrasted with the looming threat to thousands of lives and the stability of the global economy, now hanging on the whims of a president driven by self‑aggrandizement and an echo chamber of advisers.

Iran’s nationwide internet outage, which started on 28 February following the first US‑Israel strikes, has now stretched beyond 38 days, making it the most prolonged country‑wide shutdown since the Arab‑spring era. Authorities ordered a total cut‑off of global internet services on the day the conflict began, after a brief shutdown in January amid nationwide protests. More than five weeks without external connectivity has left most Iranians dependent on state‑run television and a single satellite channel for news. According to Amir Rashidi, director of the Iran‑focused human‑rights group Miaan, many citizens are unaware of the full scale of the war because “their only sources are Iranian state television and one satellite channel.” This limited media environment means Iranians receive information filtered through government agendas. Doug Madory, director of internet analysis at Kentik, noted that while sub‑national outages have occurred in places like Myanmar, Ukraine and Gaza, Iran’s shutdown is the longest and most severe at the national level since Libya’s six‑month blackout during the Arab Spring. Sudan’s 37‑day shutdown in 2019 is the only comparable recent case. In response, the regime has pushed users onto the National Information Network (NIN), a domestic intranet under development for 16 years. The NIN provides parallel services—local search engines, an Iranian‑styled streaming platform, and messaging apps—but operates under strict government monitoring. Platforms are known to hand over user data to authorities. A Miaan Group report highlighted that domestic search engines censor key terms. For example, searches for “war” or “ceasefire” on Gerdoo, Iran’s home‑grown Google alternative, return no results, while another local engine frames the conflict as a decisive Iranian victory. Circumventing the blackout is costly and risky. Some Iranians travel overland to Turkey to regain connectivity, while others purchase VPNs or special SIM cards on a hidden market at prices ranging from $6 to $24 per gigabyte—five to twenty times the global average—effectively turning internet access into a luxury commodity. Despite the human and economic toll, Miaan Group warns that the shutdown is likely to persist as the government continues to promote the NIN, even though many of its services remain unreliable or non‑functional. There is no clear indication that unrestricted internet access will be restored in the near future.