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The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a war of words over whether negotiations are taking place to end the hostilities. US President Donald Trump asserts that 'productive' talks have occurred with a top Iranian figure, but Iranian officials, including Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, vehemently deny these claims.The conflicting narratives raise questions about the motivations behind each side's statements. An analysis of what each side stands to gain from negotiations and a potential end to the conflict may provide clarity. Trump's comments on negotiations may be aimed at calming stock markets and oil prices, which have fluctuated significantly due to the conflict.The timing of Trump's comments coincides with the end of the trading week and a five-day deadline he gave for a positive response from Iran. This has led some to speculate that the US may be using talk of negotiations as a strategy to buy time for more US troops to arrive in the Middle East, potentially for a ground invasion of Iranian territory.From Iran's perspective, the economic pain inflicted on the US and global economies serves as a deterrent against future attacks. Therefore, it is in Iran's interest to downplay any talk of negotiations to maintain pressure on the US.Trump faces a dilemma between extending the war and suffering economic and political costs or ending it and facing criticism for not completing what he termed a 'short-term excursion.' The Iranian state, on the other hand, appears to have less incentive to end the war without establishing an effective deterrent against future attacks.The conflict has already resulted in over 1,500 deaths in Iran, significant infrastructure damage, and strained relations with Gulf neighbors. Moderate voices in Iran may argue that some form of deterrence has been achieved, and it may be time to talk and secure concessions.

The Iran war is threatening to disrupt shipping of crucial parts manufactured in the Gulf, potentially delaying large offshore wind projects in Europe. Industry sources are concerned that components ordered from suppliers in the United Arab Emirates could become trapped if shipping remains effectively blocked through the strait of Hormuz.These projects include two giant offshore windfarms planned for UK waters, as well as a series of projects that will supply offshore wind power to Germany and the Netherlands. The UK windfarms, which will lie off the coast of Norfolk, were each awarded a 20-year support contract from the British government just a month before Iran effectively closed the strait of Hormuz.The developer behind the plans, the German renewables group RWE, has contracted a Dubai-based company to deliver more than 180 components from its UAE fabrication yard while the windfarms are constructed. The windfarms are expected to supply the equivalent of about 4m UK homes before the end of the decade, meaning they would play an important part in supporting Britain’s aim to quadruple offshore wind capacity by 2030.A spokesperson for RWE said it had begun liaising closely with its supply chain partners amid the Middle East conflict, which has included airstrikes against key infrastructure. “Our primary focus is the safety of those working in the area,” they said. “To date there has only been a limited effect on our supply chain partners’ activities, but we are monitoring the situation closely and putting mitigation plans in place should the situation continue for a prolonged period.”The shutdown of the strait may also have an impact on a large project by the transmission operator TenneT that will link offshore wind projects in the German North Sea to mainland Germany. The company has contracted a UAE fabrication yard to deliver structural steel components, including a 5,461-tonne jacket foundation built for the BorWin6 high-voltage transmission project.

The traditional cold war diplomacy of brinkmanship, characterized by carefully balanced standoffs and rules-based international order, has given way to a world in freefall. This shift is exemplified by the ever-widening conflict in the Gulf where strategic objectives remain as unclear as the potential endpoint of hostilities.Approaching a month since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran, the stated objectives of removing the country's nuclear threat and destroying its ballistic missile capability appear increasingly disconnected from the disproportionate impact on civilians and neighboring Gulf nations. Despite these consequences, the Iranian regime's willingness to escalate the conflict shows no signs of diminishing.The Guardian Weekly's coverage examines this critical juncture through multiple perspectives. Patrick Wintour recounts the pivotal week when global tensions reached a tipping point, while Richard Partington analyzes the long-term economic implications of a prolonged conflict, from oil price fluctuations to inflationary pressures and economic growth impacts. From South Lebanon, William Christou reports on healthcare professionals caught in the crossfire of Israeli airstrikes, highlighting the human cost of the escalating violence.Emma Graham-Harrison provides insight from Jerusalem, examining Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's strategy of attempting to rehabilitate his image through what he frames as destruction of an 'axis of evil.' Meanwhile, Simon Tisdall poses a critical question: when US President Donald Trump eventually seeks to halt the conflict, will any parties be willing to heed his calls for de-escalation?Beyond the primary geopolitical focus, this week's Guardian Weekly edition explores several significant developments across different sectors. The UK political landscape features an examination of the upcoming local elections, where voter sentiment appears increasingly focused on rejecting established parties rather than actively supporting alternatives. The scientific section explores innovative approaches to addressing snoring disorders through CPAP machines, while the culture section features an in-depth interview with Dave Grohl discussing Foo Fighters, personal challenges, and grief following the loss of bandmate Taylor Hawkins.In sports, the publication celebrates the remarkable achievement of British athletes Keely Hodgkinson, Georgia Hunter Bell, and Molly Caudery, who each secured gold medals at the world indoor athletics championships in Poland, showcasing British excellence in track and field events.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, with economies in Asia being hit particularly hard. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for oil and gas shipments, has led to a 90% collapse in traffic through its waters. This has resulted in energy prices surging, affecting countries such as India, Nepal, and the Philippines.India has redirected liquefied gas supplies to households, limiting them to the plastics industry, while Nepal has rationed gas and the Philippines has trimmed the government workweek to four days. Bangladesh has closed universities and rationed fuel, highlighting the widespread impact of the conflict.The US economy has shown relative resilience, with the S&P; 500 index losing only 5% since the start of the conflict. This is attributed to the country's abundance of domestic natural gas, which satisfies about 36% of its energy needs and insulates it from international price fluctuations.However, this has led to accusations that the US is recklessly spreading havoc globally while suffering relatively little harm itself. The tariffs imposed by the US have also had far-reaching consequences, with economists concluding that US consumers and businesses are paying the majority of the costs.The International Monetary Fund has revised its growth forecasts, noting that the US economy has emerged largely unscathed, while prospects for economic growth in other countries have weakened. The World Trade Organization has warned that persistently high energy prices will slow merchandise trade growth and have a lopsided impact on growth, with North America potentially seeing a boost, while Europe and Asia are likely to be negatively affected.The conflict has also disrupted the oil and gas economy, with countries like Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan facing a drop in remittances from their citizens working in Gulf countries. Furthermore, the environmental impact of the conflict has been significant, with interest in coal being reinvigorated in Asia as a result of the energy crisis.The US's actions have raised concerns about its reliability as a partner in maintaining international stability, with erstwhile allies forced to accept that Trump's America is now a source of global uncertainty. The US's belligerence is unlikely to end soon, with tens of millions of Americans motivated by contempt for the rest of the world and a desire to assert US dominance.

Amazon's cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services (AWS), has confirmed that its region in Bahrain was disrupted due to drone activity. This incident marks the second time in a month that the company's operations have been affected by the war in the Middle East.An Amazon spokesperson confirmed the disruption, stating that the company is helping customers migrate to alternate AWS regions while it recovers from the incident. However, the company did not provide additional details on the extent of the damage or the expected duration of the disruption.The disruption comes after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) threatened to attack 'economic centres and banks' related to US and Israeli entities in the region. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency released a list of offices and infrastructure run by top US companies with Israeli links, including Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, which have branches in multiple Israeli cities and Gulf countries.AWS is critical for the operation of many well-known websites and government operations and is Amazon's main driver of profits. Earlier this month, AWS reported that facilities in Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates had lost power, and the company was working to transfer computing workloads to other regions.These attacks come after Iran claimed it is targeting US assets across the Gulf Arab states in retaliation for the joint attack on Iran by the US and Israel that began on February 28. Gulf states have accused Tehran of targeting civilian infrastructure, such as airports and energy facilities.

The recent developments in the Iran-US conflict have sparked concerns about the potential for a prolonged and devastating war. Iranian barrages have targeted Israel, Gulf Arab states, and northern Iraq, while Israeli and US warplanes have struck across Iran. The US has considered deploying troops on the ground, further escalating tensions.British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has warned that the conflict may endure, and the economic risks are already crystallizing. Business activity growth in Britain has slowed, manufacturers' input costs have seen their sharpest rise since 1992, and home loans are becoming dearer as the war feeds into energy and inflation fears.The UK government is drawing up contingency plans, such as lowering speed limits to cut fuel use. However, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has ruled out universal household support for any 'Trumpflation' and insists help will remain within her 'iron-clad' fiscal rules. This approach has raised concerns about the government's ability to mitigate the economic impact of the conflict.The conflict has significant implications for global energy markets. Disruptions to oil and gas flows could lead to a structural shift in global energy use, with Europe potentially accelerating its green energy transition and Asia opting for increased coal use. The UK's clean energy transition may be impacted, with higher costs and disrupted supply posing challenges.In conclusion, the Iran-US conflict poses significant risks to global economic stability and energy markets. The UK government must navigate these challenges carefully, balancing the need for economic support with the imperative of maintaining fiscal discipline.

The Middle East remains embroiled in a cycle of violence, with Iranian barrages targeting Israel, Gulf Arab states, and northern Iraq on Tuesday. This escalation comes a day after US President Donald Trump claimed that the US was in 'very good' talks with Iran to end the war in the region soon.Despite Trump's optimistic remarks, multiple official sources in Tehran have denied any talks are underway. Iranian parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated, 'No negotiations have been held with the US … fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets.' The Iranian government remains wary of US offers of negotiation, citing past experiences where talks were followed by attacks, such as the surprise attack that killed the supreme leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of senior officials.Potential intermediaries, including Pakistan, Oman, Egypt, and others, have confirmed tentative efforts to establish channels of communication between Washington and Tehran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been engaging in discussions with his counterparts in several countries, including Azerbaijan, Egypt, Oman, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Turkey, and Turkmenistan.The diplomatic activity follows a significant escalation of threats between the US and Iran over the weekend, with both sides trading warnings of potential strikes. On Monday, Trump delayed a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz for shipping or face targeted airstrikes on its power stations. This brief reprieve drove down oil prices and boosted stocks, with the deadline now set to expire on Friday.Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that Israel will continue to strike Iran and Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Islamist militant movement. The Israeli prime minister warned, 'There's more to come.'The conflict has already had significant economic impacts, with oil prices rising to $104 (£77) a barrel, up more than 40% since Israel and the US started the war on 28 February. Analysts warn of durable and deep disruption to the supply of oil and gas from the region, even if hostilities end rapidly, with severe economic consequences worldwide.

An Iranian missile has struck central Tel Aviv, causing widespread damage to buildings and vehicles, and injuring at least six people. The attack has led to a significant escalation of tensions in the region, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowing to continue striking Tehran and Lebanon.“There’s more to come,” Netanyahu said in remarks that appeared to corroborate those of three Israeli officials who told Reuters they thought it was improbable that Iran would accept US demands in any new round of negotiations. This development has dimmed hopes of de-escalation after US President Donald Trump played up the chances of a deal to end the conflict.In a statement released on Tuesday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch heavy missile and drone attacks at Israeli troops in northern Israel and the area near Gaza “without restraint” unless Israel ceased attacks in Lebanon and Palestine. The threat has raised concerns about the potential for further escalation in the region.Police said an Iranian munition carrying a substantial explosive payload struck the central city, causing widespread damage to buildings and vehicles. At least six people were lightly injured. Several buildings were damaged across Tel Aviv, with emergency services reporting casualties at one of the impact sites. One building and the adjacent road were heavily affected, with cars set ablaze.Israel’s health ministry reports 4,829 injured people have been brought to hospitals since the onset of the war. Of those people, 111 remain in hospital and 12 are in a serious condition. The strikes were the latest in a cycle of retaliation after Israeli operations announced on Monday.About 40 minutes after Trump said he would delay action against Iran’s power infrastructure, Israel said on X that it had “just begun another wave of strikes targeting infrastructure of the Iranian terror regime across Tehran”. The Israel Defense Forces said energy facilities would be spared, suggesting that Israel may be aligning with Washington in suspending attacks on Iranian power plants and related sites.The US-based Human Rights Activists’ News Agency said in the previous 24 hours it had recorded at least 206 attacks across 15 provinces in Iran, resulting in at least four casualties (killed and injured, both civilian and military). At least six people were killed in strikes on homes in the city of Tabriz, according to Iran’s Fars news agency.Since US-Israeli bombs started falling on Iran, estimates of total deaths (military and civilian) in the country have exceeded 1,500, with some rights groups reporting figures as high as 3,230 as of 21 March. The escalation has also spilled beyond Israel, with Iranian strikes extending into Gulf states.

The conflict in Iran has sparked concerns about a potential global food crisis due to a looming shortage of fertiliser, a crucial component in food production. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route, has been disrupted, impacting the export of fertilisers from Gulf countries.On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the Strait of Hormuz was 'closed', causing oil prices to soar above $100 per barrel. However, experts warn that a parallel crisis is emerging - a considerable threat to global food security due to a shortage of fertiliser.Nearly half of the world's traded urea, the most widely used fertiliser, and large volumes of other fertilisers are exported from Gulf countries via the Strait of Hormuz. Recent disruptions to gas supplies and shipping have already forced fertiliser plants in the Gulf and beyond to shut or cut their output.Countries such as India, Brazil, and China are heavily dependent on Gulf fertiliser exports, with India sourcing over 40% of its urea and phosphate fertilisers from the region. A prolonged fertiliser shortage and hike in fertiliser prices could lead to reduced crop yields, affecting food security worldwide.The urea export prices from the Middle East have surged by about 40%, rising from just less than $500 to a little more than $700 per metric tonne. The price is currently close to 60% higher than this time last year.According to one shipping services company, 20% of the world's fertiliser originates in the Gulf, while 46% of global urea supply comes from the Gulf. Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), considered the world's largest urea supplier, alone supplies 14% of the world's urea.Analysis by Kpler, a data and analytics company, shows that as much as one-third of global fertiliser trade could be disrupted if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists. This could lead to nitrogen fertiliser prices doubling and phosphate prices climbing by about 50%.