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The Lead A rare wildfire on Santa Rosa Island threatens six plant species found nowhere else on Earth, including ancient Torrey pines that are over 250 years old. While firefighters have successfully protected the iconic pine grove so far, biologists remain concerned about the long-term survival of these unique species that may not have evolved to withstand severe burns. The Threat to Endemic Species Santa Rosa Island is home to six plant species that exist nowhere else on the planet. The most notable is the Torrey pine grove, with some trees dating back more than 250 years. Biologists are particularly concerned about the East Point dwarf dudleya, a succulent whose range has already been burned by the fire, and the soft-leaved Indian paintbrush, a federally endangered plant. The Unprecedented Fire Event Wildfires historically occurred on the Channel Islands only after rare lightning strikes. The current fire on Santa Rosa Island appears to be human-caused, possibly from a 67-year-old sailor who crashed his boat and fired flares to attract attention. The blaze has already consumed 18,000 acres of the island's surface, approximately one-third of its total area. Conservation Efforts and Uncertain Recovery Firefighters have managed to protect the Torrey pine grove, with drone footage showing some green canopy remaining. However, scientists note that delayed mortality can occur months or even years later, especially for species not adapted to wildfire. The Santa Barbara Botanic Garden has maintained a seedbank that could help restore lost plants if natural recovery fails. Broader Ecological Implications The fire threatens not only the rare plants but also the endemic insects and animals that depend on them for food and shelter. Additionally, the blaze may damage soil crusts composed of lichens, algae, mosses, and liverworts that help prevent invasive species and reduce soil erosion. These secondary effects could have long-lasting consequences for the island's ecosystem. Future Outlook for Island Conservation Biologists will need to wait until the fire is fully contained to assess the complete damage to Santa Rosa Island's unique flora. The incident highlights the vulnerability of island ecosystems to human-caused disturbances and underscores the importance of conservation efforts like seed banking. The Channel Islands have previously been considered a conservation success story, with rare native plants making a comeback after decades of damage from non-native livestock.

The LeadGame of Thrones actress Hannah Murray shares her experience of being sectioned in a psychiatric hospital in her new memoir "The Make-Believe: A Memoir of Magic and Madness." The actress describes her mental health journey and the experience of being involuntarily admitted under the Mental Health Act.The Hospital ExperienceThe door to the room opens. A man enters the room. He is a Black man, bald and overweight. He is dressed in uniform. Blue uniform, a blue lanyard that reads "NHS". But I know Steve, the leader of the organisation that introduced me to magic, is a magician. I know he can appear in disguise.I approach the man and try to kiss him.He does not let me kiss him. Then no. It is not Steve.The man has brought me a plate of toast. He has brought me a cup of tea. I add sugar to the tea, which I would never have done in my former life, but a spoonful of sugar helps the medicine go down!I am a Ritual Master. And this, drinking my own urine, is a powerful ritual. This is all I need now to survive … I will never need to eat again. I survive on liquids and air and lightI do not eat the toast. I drink the tea. I am alone in the room again and I urinate into the cup and drink that too.I am a Ritual Master. And this, drinking my own urine, is a powerful ritual. This is all I need now to survive. It is the most potent of potions I can drink. I am a self-contained, utterly self-sufficient being. I will never need to eat again. I survive on liquids and air and light.I decide to explore outside the room. Outside my sanctuary. He has not come. So maybe I need to go searching for him …The Phone CallTime jumps. I am in a corridor lit by overhead strip lights. The electric light is pale yellow in tone. I am sat on one of three chairs in a row against the wall. The chairs are purple, curved plastic. I am still waiting for him to appear.There are two doors in front of me. One is the door to the blue room with the blue sofa and chair. Behind the other door is an office of some kind, and there is a woman in there, shuffling papers and talking on the phone.The woman comes out of the office. She is holding out my phone. My only possession now – the one artefact from my previous life. There is someone she wants me to speak to.Him.When I hold the phone to my ear, I hear a voice I recognise.But the voice belongs to my mother."Hannah?" she says. "Where are you? What's going on?"There is distress in her voice. Her voice is trembling with pain and anxiety.I do not want to hear it.This is a test. A horrible test, certainly, but one that I can pass. They are trying to tempt me back into the human. They are trying to lure me back into the past.I hang up the phone.But, after a moment, it starts to ring. The word Mum lights up the screen."Talk to her," says the woman.I answer the call.My mother sounds different now. Calmer. She asks again what's going on but gently, even cheerfully. I tell her everything's OK. That I'm fine. I tell her not to worry. I'm in a good place.This is the last time I will ever hear her voice, I think. This is the way I say goodbye.The DiagnosisThey tell me I am being sectioned.The words jar with my beliefs."Section 2 … the Mental Health Act … 28 days … right to appeal … "I cock my head.This does not fit at all. It does not fit in the world of Steve, of Ritual Master, of Shambhala and the invention of magic.I am not concerned. I am concerned only with the energy I can feel spiralling up through my body and the voices I can hear in my head.I pace the hospital corridors, delivering a tearful monologue, delivering the greatest performance of my life. A phrase comes to me. The Girl With All the Gifts. The title of a post-apocalyptic horror film released in 2016, starring Gemma Arterton.I am a magician. I am an actress. I am a writer. I have superhuman strength. I can fly. Anything that can be imagined, I can perform it. Every skill and every ability is mine.The film came out as a warning, and a prophecy.And because of me, the apocalypse has been averted.I am the saviour of the planet. I am the girl with all the gifts.The Journey to RecoveryIt was very hard, the journey to get here. It took 27 years. The path was twisting and full of setbacks, there were challenges and so much pain. There were times I wanted to give up. It was very hard. Everyone will have to make their own journey, and their journeys will be their own, unique as snowflakes or fingerprints. That is the beauty of it, the joy of it. Everyone has to figure it out for themselves.But I have laid the groundwork. I have walked the path. It starts with the energy healing, and it goes on and on through the seven dimensions, through increasingly magical planes. It goes on and on until you meet your soulmate, like I met mine.I was in a TV show called Game of Thrones, hidden in plain sight in the midst of a cultural phenomenon. I, the key to the world's salvation, wore the face of a character called Gilly, but really I played every role. Then I worked on a film called Detroit in Boston. David Benioff and Dan Weiss and Kathryn Bigelow were the four horsemen of the apocalypse. Numbers are irrelevant. Three counts as four. David and Dan and Kathryn cast me in the roles that brought about my destiny. The end and beginning of the world.I am the Ur-actress. I am every actress. Every performance ever given has been animated by my energy, my talent, by the gestures and facial expressions I am performing here and now.The Memoir and BeyondThis is an edited extract from The Make-Believe: A Memoir of Magic and Madness by Hannah Murray, published by Cornerstone (£18.99). To support the Guardian, order your copy at guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply.Hannah Murray will be in conversation with Jessie Cave at Kings Place in London on 5 June.

The World Cup AbsencesThe world's best football players will travel to North America this summer for the most anticipated sporting event of the year: the FIFA World Cup 2026. While the 48-team tournament will feature young prodigies and veterans alike, some stars will not be at the tournament, having missed out due to injuries or because their nations failed to qualify.Stars Who Missed QualificationSeveral high-profile players will not be at the World Cup because their countries failed to secure qualification. Among them are:Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Georgia) - The Paris Saint-Germain winger, one of the most feared in European football, will not be on the plane to North America as Georgia failed to qualify.Robert Lewandowski (Poland) - The 37-year-old Barcelona striker left the pitch in tears after Poland narrowly missed out on qualification. With 89 goals in 165 appearances for Poland, he has never advanced beyond the round of 16 at a World Cup.Gianluigi Donnarumma and Sandro Tonali (Italy) - Italy's failure to qualify for the World Cup for a third consecutive time means the tournament will be devoid of some of the finest Azzurri talents, including the star goalkeeper and midfielder.Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman (Nigeria) - Nigeria's shock penalty shootout defeat to the Democratic Republic of the Congo in the African playoffs means fans will miss out on watching these two bright attackers.Bryan Mbeumo (Cameroon) - Cameroon's failure to qualify came as a surprise as the Indomitable Lions hold the African record for the most World Cup appearances with eight overall.Injury-Related AbsencesSeveral players who would have likely been selected for their national teams have been ruled out due to injuries:Hugo Ekitike (France) - The France forward ruptured his Achilles tendon while playing for Liverpool against PSG in April, an injury that could sideline him until January 2027.Estevao (Brazil) - The 19-year-old suffered a grade four hamstring injury while playing for Chelsea in April, crushing his dream of making his World Cup debut.Rodrygo (Brazil) - The Real Madrid winger suffered a torn meniscus and ACL in his right knee while playing for Madrid in March and is expected to be out until the end of 2026.Xavi Simons (Netherlands) - The attacking midfielder suffered an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury while playing for Tottenham Hotspur against Wolverhampton Wanderers.Other Notable AbsencesSeveral other high-profile players will also miss the tournament:Fermin Lopez (Spain) - Misses out after requiring surgery on a fracture in his right foot.Serge Gnabry (Germany) - Ruled out with a torn adductor muscle in his right thigh.Cole Palmer and Phil Foden (England) - Omitted from England's squad after both had disappointing seasons.Takumi Minamino and Kaoru Mitoma (Japan) - Minamino was left out after suffering an ACL tear while Mitoma also misses out after suffering a hamstring injury.Eder Militao, Joao Pedro, and Richarlison (Brazil) - All dropped from Brazil's squad due to injuries.Jan Oblak (Slovenia) - The goalkeeper and captain will be absent after Slovenia failed to qualify.Dominik Szoboszlai (Hungary) - Faces a similar fate after Hungary missed out on qualification.

The AI-Powered Voice Resurrection In a striking example of the growing influence of AI, the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) temporarily restricted access to its docket system. This decision came after the discovery that AI tools had been used to recreate the voices of pilots who tragically lost their lives in a UPS plane crash last year. The Incident and Investigation The UPS Flight 2976 crash occurred in Louisville, Kentucky. As part of its investigation, the NTSB uploaded a spectrogram file of the voice recorder to its docket system. A spectrogram is a visual representation of sound signals, converted into an image using mathematical processes. This file, combined with a publicly available transcript, provided enough data for individuals to use AI tools—such as Codex—to approximate the audio from the cockpit voice recorder. The Role of AI and Public Data A popular YouTuber, Scott Manley, noted on social media platform X that it was theoretically possible to reconstruct audio from the spectrogram. Using AI, individuals successfully created approximations of the cockpit voice recorder audio. This reconstruction was achieved by combining the spectrogram with the publicly available transcript of the flight. The NTSB's Response Upon discovering these AI-generated voice recordings circulating online, the NTSB took immediate action: Temporarily removed public access to its docket system. Restored access on Friday, but with 42 investigations—including the one related to Flight 2976—remaining closed pending review. The Implications of AI in Data Accessibility This incident highlights the dual-edged nature of AI technology. While AI can be a powerful tool for analysis and insight, it also raises significant concerns about data privacy and the potential for misuse. The NTSB's swift response underscores the challenges that regulatory bodies face in keeping pace with rapidly evolving technologies. The Future of AI in Investigations As AI continues to permeate various sectors, its role in data reconstruction and analysis will likely grow. This incident serves as a critical reminder of the need for robust safeguards and clear guidelines on the use of AI in sensitive investigations. The balance between transparency and protection will be a key focus for the NTSB and similar agencies moving forward.

The $1.75 Trillion Ambition: SpaceX's Historic IPO Filing SpaceX has officially filed its S-1 registration statement, signaling a monumental shift in the private equity landscape. The filing reveals a valuation target that would eclipse the largest IPO in American history, driven by Elon Musk's audacious vision for interplanetary colonization. This move marks a critical transition from a private rocket company to a publicly traded titan of industry. Decoding the S-1: Mars, Risk Factors, and Massive Valuation The document is a 36-page deep dive into risk factors, but the headline news is the compensation structure. Musk's pay package is explicitly tied to milestones for establishing a Mars colony, aligning executive compensation with the company's most ambitious long-term goals. This structure suggests that the company's primary metric of success is no longer just launch frequency, but the tangible establishment of a human presence on another planet. The Math Behind the $28 Trillion Total Addressable Market The financial ambition is staggering. The filing highlights a $28 trillion Total Addressable Market (TAM), suggesting SpaceX views its potential not just as a launch provider, but as a dominant force in the broader space economy. This figure implies that the company is positioning itself to capture value across multiple sectors, including satellite internet, space tourism, and deep-space infrastructure. Redefining the Aerospace Industry's Financial Landscape This move challenges traditional aerospace valuations. By targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX is forcing investors to bet on the future of space infrastructure, potentially setting a new benchmark for high-growth tech companies. It signals a shift where the 'space' sector is no longer a niche government contractor market but a high-volume, high-margin commercial enterprise. The Future of Commercial Space Exploration If successful, this IPO will likely accelerate the commercialization of space, attracting more capital to the sector and cementing the role of private equity in funding the next generation of space exploration. It sets a precedent that the ultimate goal of space companies is not just Earth orbit, but the colonization of other celestial bodies.

The SpaceX IPO Filing: Beyond Rocket Launches The long-awaited SpaceX S-1 filing has finally been made public, revealing far more than just a company seeking to go public. The 36-page document detailing risk factors alone showcases the extraordinary ambition of Elon Musk's space venture. This isn't just another tech IPO; it's a declaration of interplanetary intentions with financial targets that dwarf most traditional companies. Inside the SpaceX S-1: Mars, Markets, and Musk's Vision The filing outlines a grand vision that extends beyond Earth's orbit. Central to SpaceX's narrative is the establishment of a Mars colony, with Elon Musk's compensation directly tied to this audacious goal. The document presents a roadmap that transforms SpaceX from a rocket manufacturer into a multi-planetary civilization builder, complete with the financial mechanisms to support such an expansive vision. The Financial Scale: $28 Trillion and Beyond Perhaps the most striking number in the filing is the $28 trillion total addressable market SpaceX claims to pursue. This figure encompasses not just satellite launches and space tourism, but the entire potential economy of space exploration, including Mars colonization and asteroid mining. The valuation target, if achieved, would make SpaceX's IPO the largest in American history, surpassing even the most valuable tech giants. Industry Transformation: How SpaceX's IPO Will Reshape Space Tech A SpaceX public offering would fundamentally change the space industry landscape. The influx of capital would accelerate development of next-generation rocket technology, satellite constellations, and space infrastructure. Competitors would face increased pressure to innovate while investors would gain unprecedented access to the commercial space sector. The filing signals that space is no longer just a government domain but a legitimate frontier for private enterprise and investment. The Road Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities for SpaceX's Public Journey While the S-1 filing presents an optimistic vision, SpaceX faces significant challenges on its path to becoming a public company. The company must demonstrate consistent profitability, navigate complex regulatory environments, and deliver on its ambitious timelines. Investors will need to balance extraordinary potential against substantial risk, particularly given the untested nature of many of SpaceX's core businesses. The coming months will reveal whether the market shares Musk's vision for humanity's multi-planetary future.

The Arrest That Sparked International ConcernThe operation began at 9am Moscow time, but took place across all of Russia's 11 time zones. Almost simultaneously, agents of the federal security service (FSB) raided the homes and workplaces of 17 Indigenous rights activists. Officers carried out searches, confiscated laptops and phones, and arrested and interrogated activists about participation in international forums. Most were let go; many have since left the country. Others remain in Russia, but will no longer speak up.Six months later, one remains in jail. Daria Egereva, one of Russia's foremost Indigenous rights activists, is accused of membership of a terror group. No trial date has been set. Her supporters say the charges are fabricated and she has been targeted for speaking out.Egereva was not just any activist. A member of the Selkup indigenous group, from western Siberia, she was a "bright star" of Russia's indigenous rights movement. As a member of the UN's Indigenous Peoples' Coordinating Body, she had international status. Weeks before her arrest, she had played a key role at Cop30 in Brazil as co-chair of the Indigenous People's Forum on Climate Change.Her jailing has shone a spotlight on the plight of Russia's Indigenous people, threatened by authoritarianism, extractivism and climate breakdown.The Climate Crisis in Russia's Arctic"They are really seeing the worst effects of climate change," said Alicia Moncada, director of global advocacy at Cultural Survival, which campaigns for Indigenous rights. "They are on the frontline of the frontline – that's why [Egereva's] advocacy was super important."The polar north is heating faster than any other part of the planet. In recent decades, temperatures in Arctic regions have risen three to four times faster than the global average. Communities based on permafrost are seeing their world collapse around them."The elders are saying that nature has stopped trusting us," said one exiled Indigenous leader, who requested that his name be withheld. "The traditional ways of predicting nature are not working any more."Many settlements sit next to the banks of rivers and lakes. Due to the melting permafrost, those banks are beginning to crumble. "There is a real threat of destruction for a lot of those villages," said the leader, who spoke through an interpreter. And the melting ice has brought a new source of tension: newly accessible critical mineral resources.Resource Extraction and Indigenous Displacement"All these resources of the Russian Federation, a majority of them are located under the lands of Indigenous people: gold, diamonds, oil, gas, coal," the leader said. "For some people it is a treasure, but for us it is a curse."Because the companies are coming to our land for those resources and they are pushing us out. Even if they don't push us out, the environmental situation in those places will become so bad that we are unable to hunt or fish."One of the elders said that we can adapt to anything, but we will not be able to survive without our land."The Government Crackdown on Indigenous ActivismAlthough Indigenous groups maintained their identities, by the end of the Soviet era they lacked independent organisation and relied on the state. Egereva had been part of a new generation of leaders who had encouraged community self-empowerment.But this assertiveness brought them into conflict with the authorities. Even before the war in Ukraine, the Russian state claimed that its enemies were exploiting environmental and indigenous issues. Now, with the war a pretext for a crackdown on civil society, Indigenous people are among those at the sharp end.To date, 830 organisations and 20,813 individuals have been put on the "list of terrorists and extremists", according to the UN. Among them was Aborigen Forum, a network of Indigenous defenders designated an "extremist organisation" in July 2024.Russian authorities have based their charges against Egereva and her co-defendant, Natalia Leongardt, a civil rights activist, on their involvement with Aborigen. Authorities claim it is part of an anti-state "post-Russia free nations forum".International Response and Russian DefenseIn a bail hearing on 29 April, Egereva and Leongardt denied being part of any anti-state conspiracy. "I am not familiar with and do not know this organisation," Egereva told the court. "What we are being accused of is completely untrue ... I ask to be allowed to return home and embrace my children."The court refused to grant them bail, remanding them in custody until at least mid-June. The following day, Russia celebrated a new federal holiday: the "Day of Indigenous Small-Numbered Peoples".The Russian embassy told the Guardian: "The investigation concerning Daria Egereva is an internal Russian legal matter, conducted in full accordance with Russian law. As proceedings are ongoing, we are not in a position to comment on the specifics of the case."Russia firmly rejects any allegations of violations of Indigenous people's rights. Unlike a number of western states – including Britain in its former colonies – Russia has no history of forced assimilation of Indigenous communities. Russian law affords Indigenous peoples special legal protections, guaranteeing their collective and individual rights, cultural identity, and linguistic heritage under the constitution and in line with international norms."Russia is actively engaged in the international climate agenda, taking account of both the challenges and the economic opportunities emerging in its northern regions – including expanded access to the northern sea route and mineral resources in permafrost zones. All such projects are carried out with the aim of supporting regional development, creating jobs and attracting investment, including for the benefit of Indigenous communities in these areas."

The Churchill Exhibition: War Leader's Artistic EscapeBritain's eloquent war leader kept himself sane by puffing on cigars, swilling brandy – and painting the world around him. The Wallace Collection in London is hosting "Winston Churchill: The Painter" from 23 May to 29 November, offering a rare glimpse into the artistic side of the historical figure.New Voices in Contemporary ArtThe London art scene is buzzing with new exhibitions featuring contemporary artists:Kira Freije presents hollow metal people at Modern Art Oxford, showing shadows of Berlin Dada in her work. The exhibition runs from 23 May to 16 August.Miriam Elia, known for her witty take on Ladybird books, turns her eye towards Moses in this exhibition for Jewish Cultural Month at JW3, until 30 June.Liam Young offers futuristic but lo-fi worlds you can walk through at the Barbican, until 6 September, with installations finding hope for our planet.Zsuzsi Ujj presents her first UK solo show at Arcadia Missa, from 22 May until 18 July, establishing her presence from Hungary's dissident art and underground music scenes.Remembering Valie ExportThe art world mourns the passing of Austrian feminist artist and film-maker Valie Export, who died this week. Her 1968 performance piece "Tapp und Tastkinema" (Tap and Touch Cinema) is highlighted as typically provocative but playful, giving people the opportunity to interact with and appraise a real female body: her own. Export's fearless approach to challenging beauty standards continues to influence contemporary artists.Notable Art News and DevelopmentsThe week brought several significant stories from the art world:Taiba Akhuetie makes wild creations out of hair – Rihanna and Cate Blanchett are fansWhistler should have used better paint to capture his motherNina Simone's chewing gum is going on show in a new exhibition celebrating the superfanChristo made the invisible visibleGrayson Perry's life story is to be made into a musicalFlorentina Holzinger rocked this year's Venice Biennale with naked jetskiers, human bells and urine diversGen Z can't get enough of the king of colour, Mark RothkoSanya Kantarovsky's paintings of Christian iconography and children will haunt youMasterpiece of the Week: The Judgement of ParisJoachim Wtewael's "The Judgement of Paris" (1615) stands as this week's masterpiece. The painting depicts the moment when Trojan prince Paris foolishly rates the beauty of Minerva, Venus, and Juno, giving the prize to Venus in return for her helping him seduce Helen. This decision sparked the Trojan War, with the Greeks supported by the furious Juno. Wtewael's mannerist style, with its bony, angular forms and deliberate distortions, creates an overabundance that presages doom, reflecting the war-torn Europe of the 1600s. The painting is on display at the National Gallery in London.

The Nuclear Buildup in Eastern Europe Earlier this week, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for the first time took part in the "rehearsal" of Russia's use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons. Between Tuesday and Thursday, he and Russian President Vladimir Putin presided over joint military drills covering the area from Eastern Europe to the Pacific, involving hundreds of Russian missile launchers, warplanes, warships and nuclear submarines. "We threaten absolutely no one," said Lukashenko, who has helmed Belarus since 1994. "But we have such weapons, and we're ready in every possible way to defend our common fatherland from [the western Belarusian city of] Brest to [Russia's Pacific port of] Vladivostok." Russia's Nuclear Drills and Capabilities "It's important to further boost the level of readiness of strategic and tactical nuclear forces," Putin stated during the exercises. Both leaders ordered the launch of the intercontinental, hypersonic Yars missile capable of carrying three independently targetable nuclear missiles, which flew 5,750km (3,573 miles) from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in northwestern Russia to the Pacific Kamchatka Peninsula in less than 20 minutes. As part of the drills, Moscow supplied Minsk with modified Su-25 fighter jets and Iskander-M ballistic missiles with a range of up to 500km (310 miles). Nuclear weapons are reportedly stored at the Asipovichi military range, less than 200km (124 miles) north of the Ukrainian border. Geopolitical Implications The drills come amid heightened tensions between Russia and NATO. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that if Moscow uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the alliance's response would be "devastating." The exercises are clearly timed to a summit of NATO foreign ministers in Sweden's Helsingborg, a venue symbolic as Sweden joined the alliance after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. "The events develop suddenly, seemingly without any external reasons," noted Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany's Bremen University. "Something big is taking place, something that will be significant for international politics in general, and for mass media, including the very supply of nuclear arms." Belarus's Calculus While Belarus enjoys economic preferences and cheap hydrocarbons from Russia, Lukashenko has resisted Putin's attempts to merge Belarus with Russia as part of "union state" deals dating back to the 1990s. In recent months, ties between Belarus and the United States have also warmed, with Lukashenko joining United States President Donald Trump's Board of Peace. "We're not going to get sucked into the war in Ukraine. There's no need for it, neither civil nor military," Lukashenko stated, signaling his readiness to meet with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. "If [Zelenskyy] wants to discuss something, seek advice, or anything else, he's welcome. I'm ready to meet him anywhere in Ukraine or Belarus." Future Scenarios Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has warned that the drills may be part of Moscow's preparations to launch a new offensive against northern Ukraine and Kyiv after Russian troops failed to capture sizeable areas in eastern and southern Ukraine this year. However, the current concentration of Russian forces in Belarus is "insufficient" for a new offensive, according to the head of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank. "Attacking Ukraine with Belarusian forces alone may end very badly for Lukashenko," said Volodymyr Fesenko. "For him, involving Belarus in the war is too big a risk." Despite this, analysts acknowledge that "unfortunately, there is such a risk" of Belarus becoming more directly involved in the conflict, though most believe Lukashenko will avoid such a development.