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The United States is set to implement a blockade on ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil exports. This move was announced by former US President Donald Trump. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway, with a significant portion of the world's oil supply passing through it.The blockade could have substantial implications for global oil markets and international trade, potentially leading to increased tensions in the region. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for oil shipments from the Middle East to the rest of the world.

European airports have issued an urgent warning that jet fuel shortages could materialise within the next three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.Airports Council International (ACI) Europe addressed a letter to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, stating the bloc is only three weeks away from a systemic shortage.The threat is linked to the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, which has effectively shut the strait—a key shipping lane for Gulf oil exports—pushing Brent crude to around $96 per barrel, up from roughly $72 before the hostilities.ACI warned that without a stable resumption of traffic through Hormuz within three weeks, a “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”Jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled year‑on‑year, reaching $1,650 per tonne according to IATA data. Europe’s price surge stands at 138%, while Asia has seen a 163% increase.Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary highlighted that the United Kingdom, heavily dependent on Kuwaiti supplies, is the most vulnerable market in Europe.Shipping data from Vortexa shows the last Gulf‑origin jet fuel cargo for Europe is due in Copenhagen tomorrow, following a partial delivery to Rotterdam earlier this week. The final tanker bound for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday.More than 60% of Europe’s jet fuel traditionally comes from Gulf refineries, with over 40% shipped via the Hormuz corridor. The blockade forces European buyers into direct competition with Asian carriers for alternative cargoes.Australian investment bank Macquarie notes that jet fuel lacks the pipeline alternatives available to crude oil, making the market especially vulnerable. Even if shipments resume, the refined‑product market could take two to three months to normalise, lagging behind crude markets.Airlines have already begun trimming schedules and raising fares, a trend that will feed into broader inflationary pressures. A genuine shortage could force travelers and businesses to postpone trips and shipments, deepening economic damage.ACI called for proactive EU monitoring and action, warning that the peak summer travel season—critical to many economies—could be hit hard if fuel supplies falter.IATA director‑general Willie Walsh cautioned that even with the strait reopened, restoring adequate supply will take months due to disrupted refining capacity in the Middle East. IATA had previously projected a 4.9% year‑on‑year growth in passenger traffic for 2026.

Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for global oil shipments, is open but with certain limitations. The strait, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, is a crucial route for oil exports from countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.The new restrictions come amid heightened tensions in the region, with Iran seeking to assert its control over the strategic waterway. Despite the limitations, shipping and trade activities are expected to continue, albeit with increased scrutiny and regulation.

The temporary cease‑fire in the US‑Israel‑Iran war has given Iran and China a strategic opening to challenge the US dollar’s supremacy in global finance. Both nations share a common objective: to reduce reliance on the greenback, especially in the oil sector where, according to a 2023 JP Morgan estimate, roughly 80% of transactions are settled in dollars. In a practical step toward this goal, Iran’s de‑facto toll‑booth system in the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint that handles about one‑fifth of the world’s oil and LNG shipments—has started accepting transit fees in Chinese yuan. Lloyd’s List reported that at least two vessels had already paid in yuan by March 25, and China’s Ministry of Commerce later acknowledged the reports on social media. Iran’s embassy in Zimbabwe even called for the introduction of a “petroyuan” to the global oil market, underscoring the political symbolism of the move. While Tehran pledged to guarantee safe passage for two weeks under a US‑brokered cease‑fire, Beijing declined to comment. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff told Al Jazeera that Iran’s actions serve a dual purpose: they “poke a thumb in the United States’s eye” and provide a practical alternative to dollar‑based sanctions. Rogoff added that Iran’s shift to yuan aligns with China’s broader effort to redenominate trade among BRICS nations. For both countries, the yuan offers a way to sidestep US sanctions and lower transaction costs. Their trade relationship, cemented by a 25‑year strategic partnership signed in 2021, sees China buying over 80% of Iran’s oil—often at discounted rates—while Iran imports Chinese machinery, electronics, chemicals, and industrial components. Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers indicate that, despite the conflict, Iran’s oil exports to China have remained near pre‑war levels, ranging between 12 million and 13.7 million barrels in the first two weeks of hostilities. China’s ambition to elevate the yuan is long‑standing. President Xi Jinping, in a 2024 address, expressed hope that the yuan would become a global reserve currency. Yet significant hurdles remain: the yuan is not freely convertible due to strict capital controls, and the Chinese financial system is perceived as opaque, limiting broader adoption. According to the IMF, the dollar still dominated global foreign‑exchange reserves at 57% last year, far ahead of the euro’s 20% and the yuan’s modest 2%. Cross‑border trade settled in yuan rose to 3.7% in 2024, up from under 1% in 2012, per S&P; Global—an encouraging but limited shift. Natixis chief economist Alicia Garcia‑Herrero cautioned that the Strait of Hormuz experiment adds only “incremental pressure” and that a true “de‑dollarisation” would require Gulf states, which have priced oil in dollars since the 1970s in exchange for US security guarantees. European analyst Hosuk Lee‑Makiyama highlighted that China’s ability to supply Iran with essential goods makes the yuan a viable alternative, a dynamic not possible for Europe or Japan. He described China as the closest the world has seen to a “manufacturing one‑stop shop.” Consultancy founder Dan Steinbock echoed that while the dollar’s supremacy is unlikely to crumble overnight, the gradual increase in yuan usage could “chip away” at US dominance in specific sectors over time. Rogoff concluded that the long‑term impact hinges on the war’s outcome. If Iran and China emerge stronger, many countries may diversify away from the dollar to avoid US‑imposed financial constraints. Conversely, a decisive US victory could reinforce dollar hegemony for the foreseeable future.

Iran has warned that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could become new targets if the United States proceeds with attacks on Iranian civilian infrastructure, according to a statement cited by the Tasnim news agency. The warning came late on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 00:00 GMT (3:30 a.m. Tehran time) on Wednesday, threatening to "destroy a whole civilisation" if the demand is not met. Closing the strategic waterway would further destabilise the global oil market, already rattled by the ongoing blockade of Gulf oil exports. In response, Iran’s First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref affirmed the country’s readiness for any scenario, stating on X that national security and infrastructure sustainability have been meticulously calculated and that “no threat is beyond our preparedness and intelligence.” Meanwhile, U.S. forces intensified strikes on Iranian targets, hitting railway and road bridges, an airport, a petrochemical plant, and the Kharg Island oil export terminal. Gulf states on high alert Regional authorities have taken precautionary measures: Bahrain’s Khalifa Bin Salman Port announced a temporary suspension of operations from early April 8, and the U.S. State Department issued a shelter‑in‑place order for American citizens in Bahrain, alongside travel advisories for the Hajj pilgrimage and for Riyadh. Kuwait’s Ministry of Interior imposed a curfew from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. (GMT 21:00–03:00) as a precaution, while the King Fahd Causeway linking Saudi Arabia and Bahrain was closed twice on Tuesday due to alerts in Saudi Arabia’s eastern region. Israel warned its citizens of a likely surge in attacks as the deadline approaches, citing the Karish and Tanin offshore gas fields as potential targets. Explosions and rocket fire were reported across the region, including near a U.S. diplomatic facility in Baghdad, in the Iraqi capital, and over Bahrain and the UAE. The UAE’s Ministry of Defence confirmed that its air defences are currently engaging missile and drone attacks from Iran, and Qatar’s Ministry of Defence reported intercepting a missile aimed at its territory. These developments underscore a rapidly escalating security environment in the Middle East, with the potential to impact global energy supplies and international trade.

The relationship between the United States and Iran appears to be on the brink of a critical juncture. Recent statements from US officials suggest a potential military strike against Iran's power infrastructure, a move that could have far-reaching consequences for the region. The threat, as reported, has heightened concerns about the stability of the Middle East and the potential for widespread disruptions to Iran's energy sector. This development comes at a time when diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran have been under intense scrutiny. Iran, a significant player in the global energy market, relies heavily on its power plants to support both domestic needs and international oil exports. Any disruption to these facilities could lead to significant economic and geopolitical repercussions, affecting not only Iran but also the broader region and global markets. The situation remains fluid, with international observers closely monitoring developments for signs of escalation or potential diplomatic breakthroughs. The possibility of military action against Iran's power plants raises critical questions about the future of US-Iran relations and the impact on regional stability.

Iran has issued a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in response to escalating tensions with the US. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iranian allies could shut the route, similar to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab al-Mandeb is a crucial passage for global oil trade, with 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passing through it in 2024, accounting for 5% of the global total. A closure of both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would block 25% of the world's oil and gas supply.The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region. During Israel's conflict in Gaza, the Houthis blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for ships associated with Israel or the US.A closure of the Bab al-Mandeb would have significant implications for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia and global container shipping from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. It could also exacerbate the ongoing global energy supply crisis.Experts warn that a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb would create a 'nightmare scenario,' disrupting trade toward Europe and potentially leading to a broader conflict in the region.

For Konstantin, a 53‑year‑old resident of St Petersburg, the war in Ukraine has become a literal scent in the air. Over the past fortnight he has repeatedly detected the acrid odor of burning crude, fuel and chemicals drifting from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russia’s two largest Baltic oil terminals. The facilities at Ust‑Luga and Primorsk together handle about 40% of Moscow’s seaborne oil exports and roughly 2% of global oil supply, according to the International Energy Agency. Both ports lie within 150 km of St Petersburg, making the smoke visible – and smelt – to locals. Ukrainian drones have flown more than 1,000 km from the front lines to strike storage tanks and loading infrastructure, igniting fires that have burned for days. The smell, described by Konstantin as a mix of diesel exhaust, burning plastic and rotten eggs, first appeared in late March. These attacks are a key element of Kyiv’s strategy to erode Russia’s “unexpected windfall” from oil exports, a revenue stream that has surged as the US‑Israel campaign against Iran pushed global oil prices higher. Satellite imagery shows extensive damage at both terminals, with Ust‑Luga’s sprawling processing complex blackened by fire. As a result, both ports are currently unable to dispatch cargo, forcing traders to reroute oil to smaller Baltic and Black Sea ports that lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume. Financial analysts estimate that the disruption has already cost Moscow roughly $1 billion in lost export earnings, according to Bloomberg data released on March 31. Moreover, every $10 rise in global oil prices translates into about $1.6 billion of additional monthly income for the Kremlin. Russian officials have blamed European nations for allegedly facilitating the drone overflights, but Ukrainian experts dispute this claim. Andrey Pronin, a pioneer of Ukraine’s drone warfare, emphasized that the strikes are meticulously planned to stay within Russian airspace, bypassing air‑defence systems. Since the campaign began, Ukrainian forces have targeted 13 oil sites, seriously damaging at least eight refineries from the Baltic coast to the Volga region. The attacks are timed to coincide with the heightened profitability Russia enjoys from the Iran‑related oil price surge, according to researcher Nikolay Mitrokhin of Bremen University. Beyond the immediate economic impact, Kyiv views the strikes as leverage in negotiations with Moscow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has floated the idea of a temporary moratorium on attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in exchange for concessions, though the strategy also inadvertently benefits Iran by sustaining higher oil prices. On the tactical side, Ukraine now relies heavily on FP‑1 drones produced by the domestic Firepoint company. These unmanned aircraft can carry up to 120 kg of explosives and travel roughly 1,500 km, enabling strikes deep inside Russian territory. For civilians living near the conflict zones, the nightly “fireworks” of explosions have become a grim routine. Abdulla, a Tatar resident of Crimea, described the constant shelling as a new normal, while analysts note that President Vladimir Putin remains resolute, using the ongoing talks with the White House as a diplomatic façade. Overall, the Ukrainian drone campaign illustrates how modern warfare increasingly intertwines kinetic attacks with strategic economic disruption, reshaping the dynamics of the Russia‑Ukraine war and its broader geopolitical reverberations.

Ukraine's military has launched a significant drone strike on Russian energy infrastructure in the Black Sea, targeting the port of Novorossiysk. According to Ukrainian drone forces commander Robert Brovdi, the overnight attack hit the Admiral Makarov missile carrier in the port, which serves as Russia's largest oil exporting outlet on the Black Sea.The attack is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy exports and reduce Moscow's revenues. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian energy infrastructure in recent weeks, aiming to halt Russian oil exports and impact the Russian economy.Russian authorities reported that at least eight people, including two children, were injured in Novorossiysk. Videos posted on Telegram showed a fire at one of the oil port's docks. Novorossiysk Mayor Andrei Kravchenko stated that debris from drones had fallen on two locations in the city, including a residential area.Russia's military claimed that air defense units had downed 148 Ukrainian drones over a three-hour period. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal, located in the Novorossiysk port area, exports oil from Kazakhstan and has major US oil companies, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, as shareholders.The attack on Novorossiysk comes amid a series of Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure. On the previous day, Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and the NORSI oil refinery in Nizhny Novgorod. These attacks are part of Ukraine's efforts to reduce Moscow's revenues from oil sales, which are crucial for the Russian economy.In response to the attacks, Russia's Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of deliberately targeting the CPC terminal to inflict economic damage on its largest shareholders, including US and Kazakh energy companies.