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While the two‑week pause in the US‑Israel campaign against Iran remains uncertain, one constant is clear: Donald Trump lacks a concrete plan, but Benjamin Netanyahu does. The war’s stated aim – to cripple Iran’s state capacity – is only a stepping stone toward a larger vision of a Greater Israel. For Israel’s right‑wing, the phrase often evokes a purely territorial ambition: enlarging the land Israel claims. History shows this expansionist drive has repeatedly displaced Palestinians, a process that has accelerated dramatically in recent years. Since the war began, Israel has flattened Gaza, killing tens of thousands and reducing the civilian‑inhabitable area to roughly 12 % of its pre‑war size. In the West Bank, a wave of settlement expansion and property destruction rivals the scale of the 1967 conflict. Beyond the occupied territories, Israel has seized parts of Syria and is forging a de‑facto occupation zone in southern Lebanon, with ministers from Religious Zionism, Jewish Power and Likud openly demanding Israeli sovereignty there. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich even called for an expansion “to Damascus,” and Netanyahu has publicly expressed a deep personal connection to this territorial vision. However, Greater Israel is as much a geopolitical and strategic construct as a land‑grab. Netanyahu’s ambition extends beyond occupying borders; he seeks a regional dominion built on new alliances and hard‑power dependencies. After the October 7 attacks and the ensuing Gaza devastation, Israel’s prospects for Arab‑state normalization stalled. Faced with a choice between a conciliatory approach and a zero‑sum rejection of a Palestinian future, Netanyahu chose the latter, aiming to eliminate Iran as a regional counterweight – a move that inevitably required massive US military involvement. Former Israeli security analysts note that, from the perspective of Sunni Gulf states, a weakened Iran would elevate Israel to the role of “dominant regional power.” Achieving this, according to the article, also means softening the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and making them dependent on Israel for security and energy routes. The spill‑over of Iranian drone and missile attacks on GCC infrastructure is portrayed not as an accident but as a calculated element of Israel’s strategy. When the US‑Israel coalition struck Iranian energy sites, Iran retaliated against the Gulf, disrupting global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu seized the moment to propose “alternative routes” – oil and gas pipelines that would bypass Hormuz and Bab‑al‑Mandab, ending at Israeli Mediterranean ports. In a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Netanyahu outlined a “hexagon of alliances” linking India, Arab nations, African states, Greece, Cyprus and other Asian partners, positioning Israel as the central hub. Recent IDF strategy papers echo this, suggesting Israel could achieve “operational control” far beyond its borders without permanent occupation, likening the Middle East to a “jungle” where Israel would become the “queen.” Netanyahu now describes Israel not merely as a “regional superpower” but, in some contexts, as a “global superpower.” He promises the hexagonal alliance will confront a “radical Shia axis” and an “emerging radical Sunni axis,” with Turkey singled out as the next strategic threat. Dismissal of the Greater Israel rhetoric as wartime hyperbole would be misleading. The article warns that a permanent war‑oriented mindset permeates Israel’s political elite, security establishment and media, posing a risk of overreach and regional blowback. Containing this expansive vision may become one of the most pressing post‑war challenges for the Middle East.

International activists are preparing to set sail from northeastern Spain to the Gaza Strip in a massive 70-boat flotilla, aiming to break Israel's devastating naval blockade and deliver much-needed humanitarian aid.The initiative, dubbed the 'Global Resilience Flotilla,' boasts a significant increase in participation, with about 1,000 volunteers from 70 countries taking part in the effort. The vessels, departing from the port of Barcelona, are loaded with food, medicine, school bags, and stationery for Palestinian children.Organisers say the mission is being carried out in coordination with Palestinian civil society organisations, maritime security experts, and prominent international NGOs, including Greenpeace and Open Arms—a charity known for its Mediterranean rescue operations. The flotilla has also received increased backing from the Barcelona municipality.Pablo Castilla, a spokesperson for the flotilla, told reporters in Barcelona that the primary goal is to 'condemn international complicity in the genocide committed by Israel in Gaza, demand accountability, and open a humanitarian corridor by sea and land'.Castilla noted a declining international focus on Gaza due to the ongoing United States-Israel war on Iran and Israeli attacks on Lebanon. He warned that Israel is exploiting this geopolitical shift to tighten its siege, restrict aid, expand settlements, and accelerate the occupation of Palestinian territory.The Gaza Strip, under an Israeli blockade since 2007, has faced an unprecedented humanitarian and health crisis since Israel's genocidal war against Palestinians in Gaza, which began in October 2023 and has killed more than 72,000 Palestinians.The prolonged assault has also devastated infrastructure, including hospitals, and left approximately 1.5 million of the enclave's 2.4 million residents displaced and homeless, amid severe restrictions on fuel and medical supplies.Since 2010, all flotillas attempting to break the Gaza blockade have been intercepted or attacked by Israel in international waters.

Three Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, marking a rare movement of oil cargoes amid the fragile truce between the United States and Iran.The vessels – the Liberia‑flagged Serifos, and the China‑flagged Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai – each can transport about 2 million barrels of crude, collectively representing a significant volume for a waterway that channels roughly 20% of the world’s oil and LNG shipments.According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) and analytics firm Kpler, the Serifos is chartered by Thailand’s state‑owned energy firm PTT. Loaded with Saudi and UAE crude in early March, it is slated to dock at Malaysia’s Malacca Port on April 21.The other two carriers, Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai, are chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese energy giant Sinopec. Cospearl Lake, carrying Iraqi oil, is expected to reach China’s Zhoushan port on May 1, while the destination for He Rong Hai remains undisclosed.Earlier, a tanker named Ocean Thunder, chartered by a Petronas subsidiary, also transited the strait, underscoring a gradual, albeit limited, resumption of traffic.Despite these movements, hundreds of tankers remain stranded in the Gulf, awaiting clearance during the two‑week ceasefire. Their prolonged idling continues to pressure global energy prices, which have surged since Iran’s blockade began in late February.In addition to the loaded vessels, three empty tankers – Mombasa B, Agios Fanourios I, and Shalamar – were observed heading into the strait on Sunday to load fresh cargoes. Notably, Agios Fanourios I signaled a route to Iraq’s Basrah fields to pick up crude destined for Vietnam.Management firms such as Eastern Mediterranean Maritime, Cmb.Tech NV, and Pakistan National Shipping have not provided comments on the recent transits.While the passage of these three supertankers offers a modest relief to the global oil supply chain, the overall situation remains precarious. The continuation of the ceasefire and the resolution of Iran’s blockade will be critical determinants of oil market stability in the weeks ahead.

According to the United Nations' International Organization for Migration (IOM), more than 180 people are feared dead or missing after a series of shipwrecks in the Mediterranean over the past ten days, pushing the year‑to‑date death toll to almost 1,000 since January 2026. The agency disclosed that approximately 765 deaths have occurred in the Central Mediterranean alone, surpassing the same period last year by over 460 fatalities. Across the entire Mediterranean, IOM recorded at least 990 deaths, describing it as "one of the deadliest starts to a year since 2014," when systematic data collection began. Since March 28, five separate shipwrecks have claimed the lives of or left missing at least 181 individuals. The most recent tragedy on Sunday involved a vessel that departed from Tajoura, Libya, with roughly 120 migrants aboard; rough weather caused the boat to capsize, leaving more than 80 people missing. Rescue efforts saved 32 survivors, who were later transferred to Lampedusa by the Italian coast guard, and two bodies were recovered. Libya continues to serve as a primary transit hub for migrants fleeing conflict and poverty in Africa and the Middle East, a situation exacerbated by the country's ongoing instability since the 2011 uprising that ousted Muammar Gaddafi. Lampedusa, the tiny Italian island that functions as Europe’s main entry point from North Africa, has witnessed a grim pattern of loss. An earlier shipwreck on April 1 off Lampedusa resulted in at least 19 confirmed deaths and the rescue of 58 people, many of whom remain in critical condition. Survivors reported that the vessel had left the Libyan port of Zuara between March 28 and 29. IOM chief Amy Pope emphasized that these incidents highlight a persistent humanitarian emergency: "These tragedies show, once again, that far too many people are still risking their lives on dangerous routes," she said. Pope called for immediate action, stating that saving lives must be the priority and urging the international community to strengthen coordinated efforts against traffickers, expand safe and regular migration pathways, and prevent future deaths. The surge in fatalities underscores the urgent need for policy reforms and increased rescue capacity in the Mediterranean, as the region grapples with a mounting humanitarian crisis that threatens both lives and regional stability.

The global oil trade is facing a chokepoint crisis, with Libya's oil disputes mirroring the situation in the Hormuz Strait. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for oil transportation, was briefly closed after US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, causing Brent crude oil prices to soar to nearly $120 a barrel.Libya, with its strategically located oil terminals on the northeastern coast, has become a crucial player in the global oil trade. The country's light, sweet grades of oil are particularly valuable to European refiners. However, Libya's political instability and factional oil deals are threatening to disrupt oil supplies, with Europe's energy security hanging in the balance.The Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar, controls the territory where Libya's oil is located, while the Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli signs oil contracts. This has led to a situation where Tripoli may sign oil contracts, but Haftar decides whether oil actually flows. The Arkenu agreement, a private oil company linked to the Haftar family, was recently terminated due to corruption allegations, leaving the future of Libya's oil supplies uncertain.The US is attempting to broker new talks between Tripoli and Haftar's camp, but a deal is not yet certain. Meanwhile, European energy security is at risk, with the Mediterranean Sea becoming a battleground for proxy wars between Russia and Ukraine. The sabotage of oil infrastructure and attacks on tankers are exacerbating the situation, highlighting the need for a stable and secure oil supply to Europe.

A tragic incident has occurred in the Mediterranean Sea, where a boat carrying migrants capsized near the coast of Libya. The incident has resulted in dozens of people being reported missing.The Mediterranean Sea has been a perilous route for migrants attempting to reach Europe, with many facing dangerous conditions and overcrowded vessels. The Libyan coast has been a common departure point for such journeys.Rescue efforts are likely underway, but the exact number of missing persons and any potential casualties remain unclear. International authorities and aid organizations are expected to respond to the incident.

Spain's coastal towns are taking proactive measures to prepare for tsunamis, a threat that has been historically underestimated. The town of Chipiona, located on the Atlantic coast, has become Spain's first 'tsunami-ready' community, recognized by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO in 2024. Chipiona's mayor, Luis Mario Aparcero Fernández, emphasizes the importance of public awareness and education in tsunami preparedness. The town conducts annual evacuation drills, and information boards have been installed to inform residents and tourists about what to do in case of a tsunami. The town's tsunami-ready status is part of a larger regional goal to establish 25 tsunami-ready communities by the end of this year and prepare all communities at risk by 2030. Jorge Macías, a tsunami modeller at the University of Málaga, stresses that preparedness is key, as the Mediterranean will experience a tsunami of at least a metre in height in the next 30 to 50 years with '100% certainty'. Spain's national tsunami warning system can detect an offshore earthquake and compute an initial assessment within three to five minutes. However, in the Mediterranean, this may leave only minutes to evacuate. Juan Vicente Cantavella, the director of the National Tsunami Warning System in Spain, notes that tsunami wave height is often underestimated, and even small waves can cause significant damage. Despite progress in some areas, much of the Costa del Sol remains in the earlier stages of planning, with sparse public signage and unclear evacuation routes. Miriam García, a geomorphologist and urban planner, highlights the vulnerability of Spain's Mediterranean coast, which was built without considering tsunami risks. The article concludes that preparedness is not about predicting the day and time of a tsunami, but about choosing not to be surprised when nature eventually repeats what history and geology say it will.

The United States is expanding its military footprint in the Gulf as the US‑Israel war with Iran enters its second month. Since the Feb. 28 launch of Operation Epic Fury, a joint air campaign targeting Iranian military and nuclear sites, more than four weeks of strikes have resulted in thousands of casualties.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the deployment of a third aircraft carrier, the USS George HW Bush, joining the USS Abraham Lincoln, which is currently conducting daily combat sorties from the Arabian Sea, and the USS Gerald Ford, now under maintenance in Croatia.These carrier groups carry thousands of sailors, Marines and specialised support personnel, forming the core of the US’s power projection in the region.Carrier Strike Group (CSG) refers to an aircraft carrier plus its escort ships and support units that together function as a floating base. A typical CSG includes:An aircraft carrier60‑75 fighter jets and helicopters2‑4 Arleigh Burke‑class destroyersA guided‑missile cruiserA submarine for underwater protectionSupply shipsAs of April 1, the USS Abraham Lincoln remains the only carrier launching daily combat missions against Iranian targets, while the USS George HW Bush is en route and expected to eventually replace the Gerald Ford in the Mediterranean.Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) operates as a mini‑carrier, carrying US Marines and equipment for sea‑to‑land invasions. The USS Tripoli ARG arrived in the Middle East on March 27, and the USS Boxer ARG is expected to join the theater by mid‑April. An ARG typically comprises:Three specialised ships~2,200 Marines (a Marine Expeditionary Unit)Short‑takeoff aircraftLanding craft for beach assaultsThe key distinction: ARGs are built to land troops on shore, whereas CSGs are designed to project air power and conduct major naval warfare.A Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is a rapid‑response, self‑contained force of 2,200‑2,500 Marine Corps personnel capable of combat and humanitarian missions. On Friday, US Central Command confirmed that 2,200 Marines from the 31st MEU arrived in Middle Eastern waters after departing Sasebo, Japan, on March 13. A second unit, the 11th MEU with roughly 2,500 Marines, is inbound after leaving San Diego on March 18.The Pentagon has also ordered about 2,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division to move to the region, adding to the approximately 50,000 US troops already stationed in the Middle East.An MEU is organized into four elements:Command Element – ~200 personnel for planning and command‑and‑control.Ground Combat Element – ~1,200 troops centered on an infantry battalion with artillery and armoured vehicles.Aviation Combat Element – ~500 personnel operating transport helicopters, attack aircraft and Osprey tilt‑rotors.Logistics Combat Element – ~300 personnel providing up to 15 days of self‑sustainment, including medical, engineering and maintenance support.MEUs are typically deployed aboard a three‑ship ARG, which serves as a floating base. The ships include:Landing Helicopter Assault/Dock – a small carrier carrying short‑takeoff aircraft such as F‑35Bs and attack helicopters.Amphibious Transport Dock – a mid‑size vessel transporting troops and heavy vehicles.Dock Landing Ship – primarily for cargo and heavy equipment.MEUs can execute sea‑to‑land assaults, raids, evacuations, humanitarian aid and disaster‑relief operations, and they are often the first forces on the ground in emerging conflicts.The US Marine Corps maintains seven active MEUs; the 31st (Asia‑Pacific) and 11th (West Coast) are currently assigned to the Iran war. The other units are distributed as follows:East Coast: 22nd, 24th, 26th MEUWest Coast: 11th, 13th, 15th MEUAsia‑Pacific: 31st MEUTypically, three MEUs are forward‑positioned at any time, rotating through deployments in the Mediterranean, Gulf and Asia‑Pacific regions.Historically, MEUs have played pivotal roles in US operations: during the 2001 Afghanistan invasion, the 15th and 26th MEUs conducted one of the longest amphibious vertical insertions; in 2003‑2004 they helped secure Iraqi ports and fought in Fallujah; and in 2024 they provided sea‑based support for the attempted abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

A powerful and unusual weather pattern has unleashed severe thunderstorms across parts of the Middle East, battering countries including the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. The Arabian peninsula, typically dominated by arid desert climates, received up to 150mm of rain in just a few days.The deluge was caused by an abnormally strong jet stream, which helped a deep area of low pressure to develop north of Saudi Arabia. This, in turn, drew moist tropical air from the Indian Ocean and triggered intense storms.In Oman, hailstones as large as tennis balls fell during Wednesday evening's storms, alongside torrential rain. Doha, Qatar's capital, experienced flooding the same day.Further thunderstorms developed on Thursday evening, with a more organised line crossing the UAE and hitting densely populated areas such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Gusts of up to 80mph, large hail and intense lightning were reported, as heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding.A weather station on Jebel Yanas in northern UAE recorded 244mm of rainfall, with many others exceeding 100mm in just a few days, far surpassing typical annual totals of 60-100mm. The event reflects a broader global trend of storms bringing more intense rainfall as the climate warms.Attention is shifting to the Mediterranean, where a developing low-pressure system south-east of Italy is expected to bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to Greece, Turkey and other countries in south-east Europe this week.