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While the two‑week pause in the US‑Israel campaign against Iran remains uncertain, one constant is clear: Donald Trump lacks a concrete plan, but Benjamin Netanyahu does. The war’s stated aim – to cripple Iran’s state capacity – is only a stepping stone toward a larger vision of a Greater Israel. For Israel’s right‑wing, the phrase often evokes a purely territorial ambition: enlarging the land Israel claims. History shows this expansionist drive has repeatedly displaced Palestinians, a process that has accelerated dramatically in recent years. Since the war began, Israel has flattened Gaza, killing tens of thousands and reducing the civilian‑inhabitable area to roughly 12 % of its pre‑war size. In the West Bank, a wave of settlement expansion and property destruction rivals the scale of the 1967 conflict. Beyond the occupied territories, Israel has seized parts of Syria and is forging a de‑facto occupation zone in southern Lebanon, with ministers from Religious Zionism, Jewish Power and Likud openly demanding Israeli sovereignty there. Finance minister Bezalel Smotrich even called for an expansion “to Damascus,” and Netanyahu has publicly expressed a deep personal connection to this territorial vision. However, Greater Israel is as much a geopolitical and strategic construct as a land‑grab. Netanyahu’s ambition extends beyond occupying borders; he seeks a regional dominion built on new alliances and hard‑power dependencies. After the October 7 attacks and the ensuing Gaza devastation, Israel’s prospects for Arab‑state normalization stalled. Faced with a choice between a conciliatory approach and a zero‑sum rejection of a Palestinian future, Netanyahu chose the latter, aiming to eliminate Iran as a regional counterweight – a move that inevitably required massive US military involvement. Former Israeli security analysts note that, from the perspective of Sunni Gulf states, a weakened Iran would elevate Israel to the role of “dominant regional power.” Achieving this, according to the article, also means softening the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE) and making them dependent on Israel for security and energy routes. The spill‑over of Iranian drone and missile attacks on GCC infrastructure is portrayed not as an accident but as a calculated element of Israel’s strategy. When the US‑Israel coalition struck Iranian energy sites, Iran retaliated against the Gulf, disrupting global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu seized the moment to propose “alternative routes” – oil and gas pipelines that would bypass Hormuz and Bab‑al‑Mandab, ending at Israeli Mediterranean ports. In a meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Netanyahu outlined a “hexagon of alliances” linking India, Arab nations, African states, Greece, Cyprus and other Asian partners, positioning Israel as the central hub. Recent IDF strategy papers echo this, suggesting Israel could achieve “operational control” far beyond its borders without permanent occupation, likening the Middle East to a “jungle” where Israel would become the “queen.” Netanyahu now describes Israel not merely as a “regional superpower” but, in some contexts, as a “global superpower.” He promises the hexagonal alliance will confront a “radical Shia axis” and an “emerging radical Sunni axis,” with Turkey singled out as the next strategic threat. Dismissal of the Greater Israel rhetoric as wartime hyperbole would be misleading. The article warns that a permanent war‑oriented mindset permeates Israel’s political elite, security establishment and media, posing a risk of overreach and regional blowback. Containing this expansive vision may become one of the most pressing post‑war challenges for the Middle East.

The United States team landed in Islamabad on Friday, gearing up for Saturday’s planned cease‑fire talks with Iran aimed at pausing the ongoing US‑Israel‑Iran conflict.New friction erupted on Friday when senior officials from both sides exchanged conflicting accounts of a 10‑point Iranian proposal that underpinned Tuesday’s temporary pause in hostilities.Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf warned on X that two critical measures—a cease‑fire in Lebanon and the release of Iran’s blocked assets—remain unfulfilled, insisting they must be addressed before negotiations can proceed.Ghalibaf, who is slated to attend the summit alongside Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, echoed the Iranian military’s joint command warning that its “fingers are on the trigger” after what it described as repeated “breaches of trust” by the United States and Israel.Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric, telling the New York Post that the U.S. is loading ships with the “best weapons ever made” and will employ them “very effectively” if a deal is not reached. In subsequent Truth Social posts, he dismissed Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz as a “short‑term extortion” and claimed the Iranians are “alive today only to negotiate.”The Trump administration credits Tuesday’s cease‑fire agreement with averting a larger U.S. escalation, yet it has not disclosed the exact framework agreed upon, noting it differs from Iran’s published 10‑point plan.Analysts point to substantial gaps between the parties on several fronts: Iran’s future control of the Strait of Hormuz, the status of frozen Iranian assets, the trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program, and Israel’s ongoing offensive in Lebanon.U.S. and Israeli officials assert that a Lebanese cease‑fire was never part of the deal, contradicting Iran and Pakistan’s position. Nonetheless, President Trump told an Israeli reporter that he urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to make Israeli operations against Hezbollah “more low‑key” ahead of the talks.Israeli strikes continued, killing at least 300 people nationwide on Wednesday—the deadliest day of the offensive—while Al Jazeera’s correspondent reported no slowdown in southern Lebanon’s fighting. Kuwait also reported intercepting seven drones launched from Iran into its airspace within 24 hours.Despite the heightened rhetoric, U.S. Vice President JD Vance expressed optimism, stating he expects a “positive” outcome from the negotiations and that he has received “pretty clear guidelines” from President Trump. Vance emphasized that the United States is ready to extend an “open hand” to Iran if it negotiates in good faith, but warned that any attempt to “play us” would meet a “non‑receptive” negotiating team.Vance’s leadership reflects a non‑interventionist strand of the Trump administration, stepping in as Iran’s trust in special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son‑in‑law Jared Kushner has eroded. Witkoff and Kushner previously headed two rounds of indirect talks on Iran’s nuclear program, both of which collapsed—first after Israel launched a 12‑day war on Iran in June 2025, and again after the latest war erupted on February 28.

European airports have issued an urgent warning that jet fuel shortages could materialise within the next three weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.Airports Council International (ACI) Europe addressed a letter to EU transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas, stating the bloc is only three weeks away from a systemic shortage.The threat is linked to the ongoing US‑Israel conflict with Iran, which has effectively shut the strait—a key shipping lane for Gulf oil exports—pushing Brent crude to around $96 per barrel, up from roughly $72 before the hostilities.ACI warned that without a stable resumption of traffic through Hormuz within three weeks, a “systemic jet fuel shortage is set to become a reality for the EU.”Jet‑fuel prices have more than doubled year‑on‑year, reaching $1,650 per tonne according to IATA data. Europe’s price surge stands at 138%, while Asia has seen a 163% increase.Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary highlighted that the United Kingdom, heavily dependent on Kuwaiti supplies, is the most vulnerable market in Europe.Shipping data from Vortexa shows the last Gulf‑origin jet fuel cargo for Europe is due in Copenhagen tomorrow, following a partial delivery to Rotterdam earlier this week. The final tanker bound for the UK arrived in Kent on Tuesday.More than 60% of Europe’s jet fuel traditionally comes from Gulf refineries, with over 40% shipped via the Hormuz corridor. The blockade forces European buyers into direct competition with Asian carriers for alternative cargoes.Australian investment bank Macquarie notes that jet fuel lacks the pipeline alternatives available to crude oil, making the market especially vulnerable. Even if shipments resume, the refined‑product market could take two to three months to normalise, lagging behind crude markets.Airlines have already begun trimming schedules and raising fares, a trend that will feed into broader inflationary pressures. A genuine shortage could force travelers and businesses to postpone trips and shipments, deepening economic damage.ACI called for proactive EU monitoring and action, warning that the peak summer travel season—critical to many economies—could be hit hard if fuel supplies falter.IATA director‑general Willie Walsh cautioned that even with the strait reopened, restoring adequate supply will take months due to disrupted refining capacity in the Middle East. IATA had previously projected a 4.9% year‑on‑year growth in passenger traffic for 2026.

The Gulf Cooperation Council is reassessing its security model after the brief but intense US‑Israel campaign against Iran. With American bases on Gulf soil turning the region into a target for Tehran’s missile and drone barrage, Gulf capitals are looking to diversify their defence partners beyond the United States. Iran’s lingering missile arsenal and its demand to retain control of the Strait of Hormuz remain the central security dilemma. The strait channels the bulk of Gulf oil trade, and Tehran’s insistence on keeping a foothold there was a sticking point in the cease‑fire talks scheduled to begin in Islamabad. Gulf air defences boasted a high interception rate, claiming to have neutralised more than 90% of the 2,256 drones and 563 missiles that struck the United Arab Emirates, the hardest‑hit member of the bloc. Nevertheless, the Gulf is split on how to engage Iran moving forward. A hawkish bloc led by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain favours a tougher stance, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others are open to restoring diplomatic ties. In a rare development, Saudi Arabia and Iran held their first official conversation since the conflict began, with foreign ministers discussing measures to lower tensions and restore regional stability. Security scholars such as Bader Mousa Al‑Saif of Kuwait University argue that Gulf states must broaden their security network, forging alliances with regional powers like Turkey and Pakistan rather than relying solely on the United States. He warned that the region needs a model that shields it from a perpetual state of war. Pre‑war trends are now accelerating: Saudi Arabia recently signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the UAE announced a partnership with India, and all three Gulf states – Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar – entered rapid defence agreements with Ukraine to counter Iranian drone threats. Talks of a “Muslim NATO” have largely faded, but a new alignment dubbed “Step”, involving Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan, is taking shape. The coalition’s purpose remains ambiguous, oscillating between counter‑Iran and counter‑Israel objectives, and internal rivalries complicate cohesion. The United Kingdom, which helped protect Gulf airspace during the hostilities, is also seeking deeper defence‑industrial cooperation with Saudi Arabia, as discussed by Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Jeddah. UAE political scientist Abdulkhaleq Abdulla predicts tighter security ties with the United States and a growing willingness among Gulf states to engage with Israel on military and intelligence fronts. Analysts such as Yasmine Farouk of the International Crisis Group note that Saudi Arabia’s extensive oil infrastructure, Red Sea ports and sheer geographic size give it a strategic advantage in post‑war reconstruction, though the cost of rebuilding could strain its Vision 2030 diversification agenda. Looking ahead, the Gulf is expected to layer additional security partnerships—particularly with European nations—while investing heavily in air and missile defence, hardened ports, desalination facilities, maritime surveillance and alternative export routes. As Andreas Krieg of King’s College London observes, the United States remains the only power with a full‑scale military architecture in the Gulf, but its bases are increasingly viewed as “tripwires” rather than protective shields.

Saudi Arabia has halted operational activities at several energy facilities due to recent attacks, according to the Saudi Press Agency. The attacks targeted oil, gas, and electricity sites in Riyadh, the Eastern Province, and Yanbu Industrial City.The attacks resulted in the death of one Saudi national from the industrial security personnel of the Saudi energy company, with seven others injured. The attacks have reduced the kingdom's oil production capacity by approximately 600,000 barrels per day.The Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar, have faced repeated drone and missile attacks from Iran over recent weeks. These attacks have contributed to increased volatility in the oil market, affecting the security of supply for consuming countries.Oil prices have jumped upward as the world weighs the prospects of a shaky Iran-US ceasefire and possibly the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil transit point that Iran has effectively blocked during the conflict.The ceasefire, announced by US President Donald Trump, has been placed in doubt due to Israel's ongoing daily attacks on Lebanon and Iran's attacks on the Gulf countries. Several leaders around the world have called for Lebanon to be included in the ceasefire.

The strategic Strait of Hormuz, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has become the focal point of the Israel‑U.S. war on Iran that began in February. In peacetime the narrow waterway handled about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments without any tolls, but the conflict has turned it into a contested zone. After a series of Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran retaliated by targeting merchant vessels it deemed hostile, effectively shutting the passage and triggering one of the most severe energy‑distribution crises in recent memory. While a two‑week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan, was declared on Tuesday, Tehran has issued a set of official terms that would govern the strait moving forward. According to Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghi, safe passage will be allowed in coordination with the Iranian armed forces and subject to technical limitations. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has even published a new navigation map that pushes traffic farther north, away from the traditional route near Oman’s coast, citing the risk of anti‑ship mines. Central to Tehran’s 10‑point peace proposal is the idea of charging fees for strait usage. Iranian media report that the plan could levy up to $2 million per vessel—a sum to be shared with Oman—or a charge of $1 per barrel of oil shipped. The revenue would allegedly fund reconstruction of military and civilian infrastructure damaged by the U.S.–Israeli campaign. Oman has publicly rejected any toll scheme, with Transport Minister Said Al‑Maawali reminding that the country has already signed all relevant international maritime transport agreements that prohibit such fees. International law adds another layer of complexity. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) prohibits levying charges for mere passage through international straits, allowing fees only for services like navigation assistance or port use. Neither the United States nor Iran have ratified UNCLOS, but the principle remains a benchmark for maritime norms. Analysts suggest a possible workaround: charging for de‑mining and safety services rather than for passage itself, which could be permissible under existing legal frameworks. The proposal has sparked diplomatic pushback. At the United Nations Security Council, Bahrain led a resolution urging coordinated reopening of the strait, backed by Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Jordan. The resolution passed with 11 of 15 votes, but was vetoed by Russia and China, who argued it unfairly targeted Iran and ignored the initial strikes. Beyond the region, the United States is unlikely to accept indefinite tolls. Former President Donald Trump, who announced the ceasefire, warned that U.S. forces would remain in the area and threatened to resume attacks if negotiations faltered. American troops are reportedly “hanging around” to assist with traffic buildup, though the extent of their operational control remains unclear. Maritime analyst C. Uday Bhaskar notes that only three to five ships have traversed the strait since the ceasefire began, underscoring the lingering uncertainty for global shippers. He adds that ship owners facing multi‑million‑dollar losses each day may ultimately acquiesce to Iran’s terms, at least temporarily. Should Iran implement a toll regime, the immediate impact would fall on Gulf oil‑producing nations, but the ripple effects could destabilize global energy markets, already strained by supply shocks. Major powers such as the United Kingdom have been coordinating with a coalition of 40 countries to explore alternative mechanisms for reopening the waterway without conceding to tolls. In sum, Iran’s proposed protocol for the Strait of Hormuz introduces a contentious new variable into an already volatile geopolitical landscape, pitting national security interests against established maritime law and the broader stability of world energy supplies.

Lebanon has declared a national day of mourning following a devastating wave of Israeli attacks that killed at least 254 people and injured over 1,165 in a single day. Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has mobilized 'all of Lebanon's political and diplomatic resources to stop the Israeli killing machine.'Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, a position echoed by US Vice President JD Vance, who said, 'We never made that promise.'Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the ceasefire, claimed the deal included a pause in fighting in Lebanon. However, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that Washington must choose between a ceasefire or 'continued war via Israel,' emphasizing that it 'cannot have both.'Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said a halt to Israeli attacks in Lebanon was a key condition of Iran's 10-point plan for securing an end to the Middle East war. However, a US official stated that Iran's published ceasefire plan is not the same set of conditions agreed on by the White House.US Vice President JD Vance will lead the country's delegation for talks with Iran in Pakistan, while French President Emmanuel Macron has urged that Lebanon be included in the ceasefire as the 'best path to peace.'The conflict has also affected the Gulf region, with Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain reporting damage and disruptions from Iranian strikes. The situation remains volatile, with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that Israel is prepared to 'return to battle' if necessary.

The Gulf region breathed a sigh of relief on Tuesday after Iran and the United States agreed to a two-week truce, halting over five weeks of escalating attacks and hostile rhetoric.However, Gulf states are expressing caution, concerned that the US, seeking a swift exit, might agree to terms granting Iran some control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which one fifth of the world's oil and natural liquefied gas passes.Iran had nearly brought traffic through the strait to a standstill in response to joint US-Israeli attacks on its soil since February 28. Under the truce, Iran has agreed to halt attacks for two weeks in exchange for resumed maritime transit in the key waterway.Despite this, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are stressing that any deal must result in a permanent, long-term arrangement to keep the strait open. They fear a weakened yet intact Iranian leadership could use the strait as leverage, leaving them under constant threat of disruption and economic blackmail.“There is a quiet but palpable concern that President Trump, eager for a quick political victory, could tolerate some Iranian leverage over the strait in exchange for a fragile truce, prioritising optics over Gulf realities,” said Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi Arabia-based scholar at the Malcolm H Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center.The GCC countries, which have faced near-daily Iranian missile and drone attacks, have welcomed the truce but emphasize that the Strait of Hormuz must reopen. They are also concerned about Iran's future influence over the strait, with a Bahrain-sponsored UN Security Council resolution calling for countries to use defensive missions to keep the maritime chokepoint open being vetoed by Russia and China.A further escalation could have devastating consequences for the GCC economies, undoing decades of work to make the region a safe hub for finance, tourism, and culture. Analysts say GCC countries have stepped up diplomacy in the lead-up to the conflict, but officials across the region have warned Iran should not mistake their inaction as a sign of weakness.“The Gulf will leave no stone unturned if Iran continues to take the path of aggression,” said Hamad Althunayyan, a political analyst and professor at Kuwait University. “The Gulf expects its interests to be represented, and included, in any deal with Iran.”

Residents of Tehran and much of Iran are breathing a sigh of relief after a two-week ceasefire was announced, bringing an end to daily bombardments. The ceasefire, agreed upon by Iran and the US with mediation from Pakistan, has allowed some traffic to return to the streets of the Iranian capital during daylight hours.Despite the temporary reprieve, Tehran remains far from its usual bustling state, having been targeted by several thousand munitions since February 28. The Iranian capital is home to more than 10 million people. Air defence systems were activated for short periods several times since the ceasefire was announced overnight, but there were no reports of impacts or any official explanation for the activations.People across Tehran are debating whether the ceasefire will hold and what the future may hold for them. A young man noted, “Looks like the ceasefire will continue. I heard the Israelis are opening up their airspace more,” referring to an announcement by Israeli authorities that flights will resume from Ben Gurion Airport.However, others are more pessimistic, especially after two critical islands off southern Iran were attacked on Wednesday morning, hitting oil facilities. It is unclear who was behind the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it shot down a drone in the southern province of Fars.Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain also reported attacks on their territories by missiles and drones from Iran, with Iranian state television confirming this was in retaliation for the post-ceasefire oil attacks. Tehran said it was ready to restart military operations if attacked again.On Tuesday, Iranians had been worried about the targeting of critical civilian infrastructure, such as power plants and bridges, after a threat from US President Donald Trump to end “civilisation” in a country with one of the world’s oldest civilisations. The ceasefire was announced shortly before the midnight GMT deadline that Trump had set for an agreement to be reached.The Israeli military intensified its attacks in the hours preceding the ceasefire, hitting electricity outposts, bridges, and the railway network. Warplanes also struck the Iranian Aluminium Company in Arak, damaging the country’s largest aluminium production facility.Even after the ceasefire, Israel continued attacking Lebanon, killing more than 250 people in a devastating day of attacks on Wednesday. Israel said it was targeting Iran’s ally Hezbollah, but civilian locations across Lebanon were hit.Trump hailed what he described as a decisive victory against Iran while announcing the ceasefire, but his top general emphasised that the deal only signifies a pause and combat operations could start once again if no final deal is reached. The US military said it struck 13,000 targets across Iran in less than six weeks of war.In Iran, similar proclamations of victory and celebrations were broadcast from Iranian state television. A statement from the Supreme National Security Council urged supporters of the government to trust in the system and refrain from making “divisive commentary”.The council also stressed that affairs were being overseen by Mojtaba Khamenei, who was declared Iran’s supreme leader after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed on the first day of the war on February 28.