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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning that a further escalation in the Iran war could lead to a global recession, spiralling inflation, and a sharp backlash in financial markets. The Washington-based fund cited the economic damage from the Middle East conflict as steadily rising, prompting it to cut its growth forecasts for 2026.In its half-yearly update, the IMF predicted that the UK would suffer the sharpest growth downgrade and joint highest inflation rate in the G7 this year. Even if the fallout from soaring energy costs can be contained by the middle of 2026, the fund warned of a close call for a global recession under a worst-case 'severe scenario'.This severe scenario, involving a drawn-out war and persistently higher energy prices, would see the world face a global recession for only the fifth time since 1980. Oil prices jumped back above $100 (£74) a barrel on Monday amid choppy trading in global markets. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, noted that despite a temporary ceasefire, some damage is already done, and downside risks remain elevated.The IMF set out three possible scenarios for the war in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), including a central 'reference forecast' based on the assumption that disruption to the world economy from the war fades by mid-2026. This forecast predicts global growth would fall from 3.4% last year to 3.1% in 2026, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points.Under the adverse scenario, with the global oil price remaining at $100 this year before falling back to $75 in 2027, growth would fall to 2.5% this year, and inflation would rise to 5.4%. In the severe scenario, with a lengthier, intensive war keeping the oil price above $110 into 2027, global growth would collapse to about 2%, a threshold widely seen as equivalent to a worldwide recession.The IMF urged countries to stage a coordinated response to the economic fallout from the war and called on central banks to remain vigilant. It also advised governments to focus on temporary and targeted measures to support businesses and households.

Scientists have confirmed that March 2026 was the hottest March on record in the United States, underscoring the urgency of the climate crisis. Yet, a weekend gathering in a hotel basement near the White House, organized by the climate‑denying Heartland Institute, celebrated a very different narrative.The audience—predominantly middle‑aged men in suits—cheered the claim that the world is finally “waking up” to the idea that there is no climate crisis. Heartland Institute president James Taylor described the atmosphere as “wonderful” and declared that “the truth is winning out.”The event’s headline speaker was Lee Zeldin, the EPA administrator—a figure also rumored to be under consideration for the role of attorney general. Zeldin framed the conference as a day of “vindication,” accusing a “cabal of elites” of using climate science to push a political agenda.Booths and banners, sponsored by groups such as the CO2 Coalition, displayed slogans like “CO2 is a lifesaver” and “There is no climate crisis.” Pamphlets touted fossil fuels as the “greenest energy source” and dismissed net‑zero targets as unfounded.While some attendees denied the existence of global warming outright, others conceded that temperatures were rising but insisted it was not a human‑caused emergency. Taylor later clarified that “humans have played a role in climate change, but that is not the same as a ‘climate crisis.’”Harvard historian Naomi Oreskes noted that think tanks like Heartland portray themselves as underdogs, even though they receive substantial backing from powerful interests. The institute has historically been funded by major oil companies—including Shell and ExxonMobil—and by the Mercers, a prominent Republican donor family.When asked about current funding sources, Taylor dismissed the inquiry as “curious and disappointing,” insisting that the organization is supported by individuals who value “freedom and affordable energy.” He added that the institute has not received oil money for nearly two decades, though he would “gladly accept” it again.Under the Trump administration, groups such as the Heartland Institute, the CO2 Coalition, and the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) have secured unprecedented policy influence. Their agenda includes the repeal of the EPA’s “endangerment finding,” a legal basis for most U.S. climate regulations. During Zeldin’s introduction, CFACT president Craig Rucker announced the rollback to a cheering crowd.CFACT’s lobbying helped cancel a California offshore‑wind project, while the CO2 Coalition’s founder helped establish a White House committee that questioned climate science during Trump’s first term. Most recently, the coalition succeeded in placing an ophthalmologist with no air‑pollution expertise on a key EPA advisory panel.Despite the deniers’ confidence, polling consistently shows that a **vast majority of Americans**—including 42 % of young Republicans—acknowledge climate change and view it as a pressing issue. Taylor countered by citing a 2019 survey indicating limited willingness to pay higher electricity bills for climate action, but the broader data suggest strong public concern.Younger activists disrupted a youth‑focused panel, arguing that the conference’s “geriatric white‑male” audience was out of touch with the climate realities that will affect their generation. One protester shouted, “There’s no such thing as fossil‑fuel‑caused climate change!” before being removed.The clash highlighted a growing divide: while right‑wing think tanks are consolidating power within the federal government, public opinion and scientific consensus continue to affirm the reality and urgency of global warming.

Senator Bernie Sanders declared on Monday that he will force a vote later this week on a resolution designed to stop the sale of nearly $500 million in bombs and bulldozers to the Israeli military. The procedural maneuver bypasses the Senate majority leader, signaling a direct challenge to the administration’s policy of unconditional support for Israel.Sanders framed the measure as a response to what he described as the "extremist Netanyahu government" responsible for alleged genocide in Gaza, arguing that American taxpayers should not fund further military operations that exacerbate civilian suffering.While the Republican‑controlled Senate is unlikely to approve the resolution, the vote will serve as a barometer of Democratic sentiment toward Israel, especially as anger over the U.S.–Israel war on Iran and ongoing atrocities in Gaza and the West Bank intensifies.Last year, Sanders introduced a comparable bill that was defeated 27‑70. At that time, a majority of Senate Democrats had supported the effort, reflecting an erosion of the once‑solid bipartisan consensus backing Israel.Public opinion data underscores this shift: a February Gallup poll found that only 46 % of Americans hold favourable views of Israel, and a mere 17 % of Democratic respondents say they sympathise more with Israelis than Palestinians.Since the conflict began, the United States has provided Israel with over $21 billion in military assistance during the first two years of the Gaza war, a figure that critics argue fuels continued violence.Adding pressure from the advocacy side, liberal Zionist organization J Street issued its first call to phase out U.S. aid to the Israeli military, citing the combined impact of the Gaza war, rising extremist activity in the West Bank, and the U.S.–Israel confrontation with Iran.J Street urged Washington to consistently apply existing legal restrictions—such as the Leahy Law—that prohibit security assistance to countries implicated in human‑rights abuses, a standard it says has been routinely overlooked in Israel’s case.The upcoming Senate vote, therefore, not only tests the durability of the U.S.–Israel security partnership but also reflects a broader reevaluation of American foreign‑policy priorities amid a volatile Middle‑East landscape.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem has strongly opposed an upcoming meeting between the Lebanese government and Israel in the United States, labeling such efforts as 'futile' amid intensified Israeli attacks on Lebanon. In a televised speech on Monday, Qassem called on the Lebanese government to take 'a historic and heroic stance' by not attending the planned talks. The Lebanese and Israeli ambassadors are set to meet in Washington, DC, on Tuesday to discuss direct negotiations between the two countries. However, Qassem argued that the talks are a ploy to pressure Hezbollah into laying down its weapons, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly stating that the goal is to disarm Hezbollah. Qassem emphasized that Hezbollah will not back down, stating, 'We will not rest, stop or surrender. Instead, we will let the battlefield speak for itself.' He also accused Israel of continuing its aggressive actions, including near-daily deadly attacks, despite a supposed ceasefire in effect since November 2024. Since Israel intensified its war on Lebanon in early March, at least 2,055 people have been killed, including 165 children and 87 medical workers, with over 6,500 wounded and around 1.2 million displaced. Qassem described the planned talks as a 'free concession' to Israel and the US, and called for a united Lebanese stance against negotiations. The speech followed protests in Beirut against the planned talks, with demonstrators accusing Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of betraying the Lebanese people. The situation remains tense, with the Israeli military claiming to have surrounded the key southern town of Bint Jbeil, while Hezbollah continues to claim attacks against Israeli forces there.

High-level talks between the United States and Iran ended without an agreement in Islamabad, Pakistan, on Sunday. The breakdown leaves a fragile two-week ceasefire as the only barrier between diplomacy and a return to war. Pakistan, which played a key role in bringing both sides to the negotiating table, remains committed to facilitating further dialogue.The talks, the highest-level direct engagement between Washington and Tehran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, stalled over differences surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The US insisted on a commitment from Iran that it would not seek a nuclear weapon, while Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, accused the US of 'maximalism' and shifting demands.Despite the setback, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, emphasized that Pakistan will continue to play a role in facilitating engagements and dialogue between the two nations. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, also expressed optimism about the potential for future talks.The immediate threat to the ceasefire comes from the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon. Iran has warned that continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon could render negotiations meaningless, while the US has announced a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran controls and uses as a key negotiating lever.Analysts say Pakistan's role is crucial in preventing a prolonged conflict, but its economic fragility and limited leverage constrain its ability to impose outcomes. Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and Chief of Army Staff, Field Marshal Asim Munir, have been praised by both Trump and Iranian officials for their efforts to secure the ceasefire and host the talks in Islamabad.

Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon have resulted in at least six fatalities, according to state media reports. The Israeli military claims to have surrounded the main town of Bint Jbeil, a strategic location in the conflict with Hezbollah.The state-run National News Agency (NNA) reported that one person was killed and nine others injured in an airstrike on the town of Bazouriyeh. Additionally, Israeli air strikes killed one person in Nabatiyeh El Faouqa and three others in Sir el Gharbiyeh and Choukine.The Israeli military also struck a centre of the International Committee of the Red Cross in Tyre, resulting in one injury that later died. Several Red Cross vehicles were damaged in the attack.The Israeli army announced it will have full operational control of Bint Jbeil within days, after claiming to have killed more than 100 Hezbollah fighters there over the past week. Hezbollah has been engaged in fierce fighting with Israeli forces in Bint Jbeil, a town that has been a symbolic and strategic flashpoint in confrontations between the two.Diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict are underway, with Israeli and Lebanese officials set to hold talks in Washington to end the war. Lebanon's culture minister, Ghassan Salame, emphasized the government's focus on securing an immediate halt to hostilities before any peace talks with Israel.Since Israel expanded its offensive in Lebanon on March 2, at least 2,055 people have been killed and over 6,550 others injured. The escalation in Bint Jbeil comes as Hezbollah continues to engage in clashes with Israeli forces, with the group reporting intense clashes on Sunday.

The United States, led by President Donald Trump, has announced its intention to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global energy supplies, in a significant escalation of tensions with Iran. This move comes after talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad failed to yield an agreement.In a social media post, Trump stated that the US Navy would begin the process of blockading any and all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade, which commenced at 10am Washington, DC, time (14:00 GMT) on Monday, has sparked concerns about the status of the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran announced last week.Analysts view Trump’s threat as a substantial escalation in the war on Iran. Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York, noted that Trump is using the blockade as a tool in negotiations with Iran, aiming to pressure the country to comply with US goals.The blockade could have far-reaching implications for global energy markets, as the Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. Iran has allowed ships from certain countries to pass through the strait during the conflict, but a blockade could disrupt these supplies.Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at City St George’s, University of London, described the US actions as “sanctions with warships doing the bidding of President Trump,” rather than a classic blockade. He raised concerns about the legality of such actions under international maritime law, noting that the US is not a party to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.The international community remains divided on the issue, with the United Kingdom stating it will not support the blockade and China urging calm. The blockade’s impact on Iranian mines in the strait and shipping operations remains uncertain, with potential consequences for global energy security and the economy.

Islamabad transformed into a security zone on Saturday as the city imposed a lockdown, sealing roads, establishing checkpoints, and deploying over 10,000 security personnel ahead of the anticipated US‑Iran ceasefire talks. The Iranian delegation arrived quietly late on Friday night, traveling through Balochistan before a Pakistani Air Force aircraft switched off its call sign. By the next afternoon, the American team touched down at Nur Khan Air Base, a site India once claimed was damaged during last year’s brief conflict. On the tarmac, three distinctive tail fins—one American, two Iranian—caught the eye, a subtle reminder of the region’s reliance on symbolism. Both delegations were escorted along pre‑cleared routes to the Serena Hotel, which had been emptied and secured days earlier, turning the former luxury venue into a tightly controlled diplomatic arena. This marked the first direct, high‑level engagement between post‑revolution Iran and the United States on foreign soil. Clashing worldviews in the negotiation room Inside, the talks juxtaposed an American “peace through strength” stance with Iran’s “resistance with dignity” perspective. Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif warned the night before that the meeting was a make‑or‑break moment for lasting peace. Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, set pre‑conditions: any dialogue required progress on a Lebanon ceasefire—where Israel’s campaign has killed over 2,000 people—and the unfreezing of Iranian assets held abroad, which have crippled Tehran’s economy. Within hours of arrival, bilateral side‑talks began, offering a tentative thaw for Pakistani officials facilitating the process. Although previous rounds in Muscat, Vienna, Geneva and Abu Dhabi suffered from deep mistrust, this was the first occasion that the United States’ vice‑president JD Vance and Iran’s parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf faced each other face‑to‑face. Pakistan’s strategic mediating role Pakistan leveraged its unique position—close ties to Gulf states, a shared border with Iran, proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, and a strategic partnership with China—while not hosting US military bases. This allowed Islamabad to engage all parties without overt alignment. The marathon 21‑hour session Officials described the talks as continuous yet uneven. The first session lasted under two hours, followed by a brief procedural pause during which dinner was served but informal discussions continued. Subsequent rounds involved multiple draft exchanges and rapid redrawing of red lines, with constant communication to Washington—including President Donald Trump—and Tehran. Pakistani leaders, including Prime Minister Sharif, Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Army Chief Asim Munir, worked around the clock, aiming not for a final pact but for a framework to prevent further escalation. Why the talks stalled As the session entered its final phase, the United States signaled an abrupt end. JD Vance summed up the outcome: “We had substantive discussions, but no agreement.” He emphasized the US demand for an affirmative, long‑term commitment from Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons, describing Washington’s proposal as its “final and best offer.” Iran’s ambassador in Islamabad framed the meeting as “not an event, but a process,” claiming it laid groundwork for future dialogue, while state‑affiliated outlets criticized the US stance as overly demanding. A senior Iranian foreign‑ministry spokesperson noted that, for Tehran, diplomacy is a continuation of its broader struggle, and any progress hinges on the other side’s “seriousness and good faith.” Pakistan’s cautious post‑talk posture Finance Minister Dar thanked both sides and pledged continued facilitation, avoiding any claim of victory or admission of failure. Behind the scenes, officials acknowledged pressure from multiple fronts—including Israel, whose prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is perceived by some sources as a major obstacle to peace. Aftermath in Islamabad The city did not immediately revert to normal; security checkpoints and traffic diversions persisted, and the Serena Hotel remained under tight control. Journalists reported a disciplined environment with limited leaks, suggesting a deliberate effort to contain information. As the delegations departed, the door on diplomatic engagement remained open, albeit without a concrete agreement. The talks, though inconclusive, demonstrated that high‑level US‑Iran dialogue is possible under Pakistan’s mediation, preserving a channel that could prove pivotal in future regional negotiations.

The U.S. military announced that, starting at 14:00 GMT on Monday, it will enforce a blockade of every Iranian port, a step taken after President Donald Trump ordered a naval closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the waterway through which roughly one‑fifth of global crude oil normally flows. The blockade comes on the heels of stalled peace negotiations in Islamabad, where talks between Washington and Tehran collapsed without an agreement despite a prior cease‑fire pledge. Trump’s escalation has already driven crude prices above $100 per barrel and unsettled Asian equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.84%, the Topix slipping 0.42% and South Korea’s Kospi falling 1.83%. Iran’s response is equally forceful. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that any vessel entering the strait would be deemed a breach of the cease‑fire and dealt with “harshly and decisively,” insisting it has “full control” and threatening a “deadly vortex” for any misstep. Navy chief Shahram Irani dismissed Trump’s threat as “ridiculous and funny,” while state television said Iranian forces are closely monitoring U.S. movements. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lamented “maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade” that undermined a near‑final Islamabad memorandum, quoting, “Good will begets good will. Enmity begets enmity.” Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pledged resistance and mocked U.S. gasoline prices, posting a map of Washington‑area pump prices and predicting nostalgia for $4‑$5 gas. U.S. Central Command clarified that the blockade will stop all vessels bound for or from Iran, while traffic to non‑Iranian ports will continue unhindered. Trump also warned that any ship that has paid an “illegal toll” to Iran will be intercepted on the high seas, and he publicly criticized Pope Leo XIV for urging an end to the conflict. In Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes have killed at least five people, bringing the country’s overall death toll to 2,055. Hezbollah retaliated with a rocket barrage aimed at northern Israeli towns, citing violations of a cease‑fire. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) reported that an Israeli tank rammed peace‑keeping vehicles twice in the south. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited troops on the Lebanese border, claiming that Hezbollah’s invasion threat has been neutralized, though he acknowledged that hostilities continue within the security zone. On the energy front, shipping through the Hormuz corridor has “immediately halted,” according to Lloyd’s List, with several vessels turning back after the blockade announcement, further tightening global oil supplies.