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Oil markets experienced a dramatic correction on Wednesday, with Brent crude falling 13.9% to $94.10 per barrel and U.S. WTI futures sliding almost 16% to $95, marking the steepest daily percentage drop since the COVID‑19 crash of April 2020. Despite the plunge, prices remain well above pre‑conflict levels, when Brent traded below $73.The price shock followed President Donald Trump's announcement of a two‑week, conditional ceasefire with Iran, contingent on Tehran reopening the strategic Strait of Hormuz for oil tankers. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed the strait would be managed by the Iranian military during the grace period, while Iran’s national security council accepted the ceasefire on the condition that U.S. attacks be halted.Equity markets reacted positively. The pan‑European Stoxx 600 surged 4%, its biggest one‑day gain in over four years. In the UK, the FTSE 100 climbed nearly 3% to 10,646 points, its highest level since the early days of the Iran war. Travel and leisure stocks led the rally, with Air France up 14.5%, Lufthansa +11%, IAG +9.5% and TUI +12%.Oil majors were the notable laggards; BP and Shell each lost more than 5% as investors priced in continued supply uncertainty. Asian markets also posted strong gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose over 5%, Australia’s S&P;/ASX 200 jumped 2.55%, South Korea’s Kospi surged 7.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 3.1% and China’s CSI300 climbed 3.2%.Bond yields eased on the ceasefire news. The U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield fell to 4.24% from 4.30%, while the UK 10‑year gilt slipped to 4.7% from 4.9%.Safe‑haven assets rallied as well: gold rose more than 2% to $4,812 per ounce, and cryptocurrencies recovered, with Bitcoin up 2.9% to $71,327 and Ether gaining 5.6% to $2,234.Market strategists emphasized the provisional nature of the relief. Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank markets strategist, warned that “investors will be breathing a big sigh of relief, but the durability of the ceasefire remains the key risk.” He noted ongoing Israeli‑Iran strikes and unclear extensions to Lebanon could reignite volatility.Energy analyst Saul Kavonic (MST Financial) described the pause as “an off‑ramp for Trump’s bombastic ultimatum, but not yet an off‑ramp for oil markets or the war.” He expects a limited release of tankers from Hormuz in May, which would ease storage pressure without boosting production.Capital Economics chief economist Neil Shearing highlighted potential transit fees for Hormuz passage, estimating a $1‑2 million charge per tanker—equivalent to roughly $1 per barrel—would have a modest effect on global oil prices but could signal a de‑facto partial nationalisation of the route.TD Securities senior strategist Prashant Newnaha cautioned that “renewed escalation cannot be ruled out, but markets are treating this ceasefire as the real deal, and all parties will sell it as a major win.” He added that oil prices are unlikely to revert to pre‑war levels, keeping inflationary pressures alive.Earlier in the week, U.S. equities swung sharply, with the S&P; 500 dipping 1.2% before rebounding after Pakistan’s prime minister urged Trump to extend the deadline and keep the strait open.The conflict, which began after the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, has choked the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies flow—fueling a worldwide energy crunch.

Israel has reaffirmed that its military operations in Lebanon will persist, defying US President Donald Trump's ceasefire announcement aimed at Iran. The Israeli military has continued to carry out strikes in Lebanon, with civilians in southern Lebanon being told to move north of the Zahrani River.The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized that Trump's two-week pause in military action against Iran does not include Lebanon. This stance directly contradicts statements made by Iran and Pakistan, which has been mediating in the conflict.Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had announced that Iran, the US, and their allies had agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere, including Lebanon. However, Israel maintains that its conflict with Lebanon, particularly with Hezbollah, is separate.On Wednesday morning, an Israeli military spokesperson confirmed that operations against Hezbollah were ongoing. The military also issued a warning in Arabic to people in Tyre to move away from a building, a common precursor to an airstrike in a populated area.The conflict in Lebanon has resulted in over 1,500 deaths, many of them civilians, and has displaced more than 1.1 million people, with many living on the streets. The situation remains volatile as Hezbollah is expected to issue a formal statement outlining its position on the ceasefire and Netanyahu's assertion that Lebanon is not included in the agreement.

Israel's latest invasion of Lebanon has resulted in a massive displacement of over 1.2 million people, including 350,000 children, making it one of the world's fastest-growing and most severe displacement crises. Since March 2, Israeli forces have launched over 1,840 attacks on Lebanon, killing more than 1,497 people and injuring over 4,639, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health. The Israeli army claims it is targeting strongholds of the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, stated that Israel plans to destroy Lebanese border towns and continue its occupation of southern Lebanon. The conflict has led to 20% of Lebanon's 5.9 million population being displaced, with one in five people affected. This crisis ranks among the top 10 displacement crises in recent years, according to UNHCR's 2025 data. Attacks have been concentrated in areas such as Bint Jbeil, Nabatieh, Tyre, Marjayoun, and Sidon, with over 2,000 attacks reported between March 2 and March 27. Israel carried out 1,840 of these attacks, mostly air or drone strikes and shelling. The destruction of bridges and crossings in southern Lebanon aims to isolate communities, with the Dalafa bridge and roads between villages like Sohmor and Yohmor being targeted. This has severe implications for access to hospitals and public services. Israel's evacuation orders now cover over 1,470sq km (568sq miles), or about 14% of Lebanon's territory, approaching the scale of Russian occupation in Ukraine.

The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has reached a critical point, with intensified airstrikes on Iranian targets, including universities and oil facilities. US President Donald Trump has warned of the “complete demolition” of Iran’s key infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by a looming deadline.Iran’s military has dismissed Trump’s threats as “delusional”, saying they cannot mask what it described as US “disgrace and humiliation” in the region. Iranian missiles and drones continue to target sites across the Gulf region.US ultimatum: Trump has issued a strict deadline, threatening the “complete demolition” of Iran’s power plants and bridges by Tuesday evening (00:00 GMT, Wednesday) if Tehran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Experts say targeting civilian infrastructure is a war crime.Iran rejects pause offer: Iran has rejected a proposal for a temporary ceasefire, arguing it would give the US and Israel time to regroup and launch further attacks. Instead, Iranian officials have put forward a 10-point proposal calling for a comprehensive and permanent end to the war.The conflict has also spread to other countries in the region, with Saudi Arabia intercepting up to 18 drones over the past few hours and Bahrain closing an important bridge linking the island nation to Saudi Arabia due to fears of attacks from Iran.The United Nations has reported that more than 1.1 million people have now been registered as displaced in Lebanon as Israel continues its ground invasion in the country’s south.

Israeli attacks on Lebanon have intensified, causing widespread devastation and deepening fissures within Lebanese society. The violence has resulted in over 1,500 deaths, including 130 children, and displaced more than 1.2 million people. The attacks have predominantly targeted the Shia Muslim community, including civilians not affiliated with Hezbollah.The latest incident occurred in Ain Saadeh, a predominantly Christian area east of Beirut, where two US-made GBU-39 bombs killed three people, including Pierre Moawad, a member of the anti-Hezbollah Christian party Lebanese Forces, his wife Flavia, and a visiting friend named Roula Mattar. This attack has further strained sectarian relations, with some Lebanese blaming Hezbollah for drawing Israeli wrath.Experts warn that Israel's strategy aims to create a rift between Lebanese communities and isolate the Shia community. The attacks have sparked panic and fear, with displaced people facing discrimination and locals demanding increased security measures.Human rights organizations have accused Israel of committing 'apparently deliberate or indiscriminate attacks' on civilians in Lebanon. While Israel claims to target Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure, the mounting civilian casualties have raised concerns about the proportionality of its actions.As the conflict escalates, Lebanese citizens express growing despair. One resident, Huda, said: 'We are dying, little by little.' The situation remains dire, with no immediate end to the violence in sight.

Amid growing international focus on the Iran‑Israel conflict, Israel is pressing ahead with a systematic annexation of the West Bank, centred on the contentious E1 settlement project. The plan envisions the construction of 3,400 new homes on Palestinian land, a move designed to split the territory and undermine the viability of a future Palestinian state. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly condemned the annexation drive, labeling the E1 scheme illegal. Although the war in Iran and Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon have delayed the release of construction tenders, officials confirm that the tenders will be issued on 1 June. Criticism from the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy has so far failed to deter the Israeli government, which appears accustomed to rhetorical rebukes without concrete repercussions. As former EU officials note, the Union has yet to leverage its economic and diplomatic weight to stop the settlement expansion. The British Prime Minister has reaffirmed the stance of the International Court of Justice, declaring the 1967 occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank unlawful. This follows the United Kingdom’s formal recognition of the State of Palestine last year, alongside France, Canada and Australia. Given its historic ties and recent diplomatic recognitions, the UK is uniquely positioned to galvanise European and Commonwealth partners. Experts propose a three‑pronged approach: first, issue a clear warning that any contractor involved in designing, building or financing the E1 settlement jeopardises its commercial interests with the UK; second, impose a comprehensive ban on UK trade in goods, services and investment linked to the settlements; and third, suspend the trade concessions granted under the UK‑Israel trade and partnership agreement for breaching its human‑rights provisions. New Prime Minister Keir Starmer is urged to embed these measures within a broader strategy to strengthen European cooperation, champion equal rights, and secure mutual security for Israelis and Palestinians. Without enforceable consequences, the illegal settlement programme is likely to expand, heightening the risk of further violence. Vincent Fean – former consul‑general in JerusalemDavid Hannay – former UN ambassadorAnn Grant – former high commissioner to South AfricaEmyr Jones Parry – former UN ambassadorDavid Manning – former US ambassadorDavid Richmond – former FCO director generalPeter Westmacott – former US ambassadorJeremy Greenstock – former UN ambassadorFrances Guy – former Lebanon ambassadorPeter Millett – former Jordan ambassadorDerek Plumbly – former Egypt ambassadorEdward Clay – former Kenya high commissionerTony Brenton – former Russia ambassadorWilliam Patey – former Afghanistan ambassadorColin Budd – former Netherlands ambassadorAnthony Cary – former Canada high commissionerAlan Charlton – former Brazil ambassadorEdward Chaplin – former Iraq and Jordan ambassadorPeter Collecott – former Brazil ambassadorRichard Dalton – former Iran ambassadorMichael Hone – former Iceland ambassadorNicholas Hopton – former Iran ambassadorPeter Jenkins – former UN (Vienna) ambassadorRupert Joy – former EU ambassador to MoroccoRobin Kealy – former Tunisia ambassadorRobin Lamb – former Bahrain ambassadorAnthony Layden – former Morocco ambassadorRichard Makepeace – former UAE ambassadorMark Matthews – former Chad ambassadorRichard Northern – former Libya ambassadorChristopher Segar – former Iraq ambassadorAdrian Sindall – former Syria ambassador

The threat of bombing Iran back to the 'stone ages' by US President Donald Trump has raised concerns about the morality, legality, and utility of such a campaign. In 2006, Israel bombed Lebanon's Jiyeh power station, causing a massive oil spill and significant damage. However, this did not prevent Hezbollah from rearming and continuing to fight. Similarly, Russia's sustained bombardment of Ukraine has not forced the country to concede. History has shown that bombing campaigns, including the British 'area bombing' of Germany in World War II and the US Rolling Thunder campaign against North Vietnam, have not always achieved their desired outcomes. Experts argue that bombing Iran's infrastructure would not change the regime's strategic calculus and would likely give the Iranian government a powerful propaganda tool. The US lacks a credible military option to force Iran into submission, and pressure alone may not be enough to break Tehran. The effectiveness of bombing campaigns in achieving war objectives is highly contested. The article cites the example of the British bomber command's promise to bring about the collapse of Germany within four months, which ultimately proved unsuccessful. Trump's threat to bomb Iran's infrastructure has been met with skepticism by experts, who argue that it is unlikely to achieve its desired outcome and may instead escalate the situation.

Israel’s military issued a stark advisory to Iranians early Tuesday, urging them to avoid all train travel across the country from 8:50 am to 9:00 pm Iran time. The warning, posted in Farsi on social media, warned that anyone near railway lines or stations could become a target as Israel prepared to strike infrastructure. The advisory comes just hours before the U.S. President Donald Trump’s ultimatum expires at 8 pm ET on Tuesday (1 am GMT Wednesday). Trump has repeatedly threatened to “take out” Iran’s bridges and power plants in a single night, a claim he reiterated at a White House press briefing on Monday. Iran rejected a cease‑fire proposal brokered by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, insisting on a permanent end to the war and presenting a 10‑point counter‑proposal that the U.S. deemed insufficient. Legal experts have warned that indiscriminate bombing of civilian infrastructure could constitute a war crime, a concern dismissed by the Trump administration. On the diplomatic front, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian posted on X that over 14 million Iranians are prepared to sacrifice their lives for the nation, underscoring the high domestic stakes. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth warned that Monday would see the “largest volume of strikes” on Iran, with Tuesday expected to see even more attacks as the deadline approached. According to Iranian media, Israel struck Khorramabad airport in western Iran, while Israeli forces also hit a petrochemical plant in Shiraz and a ballistic‑missile launch site in the northwest. The United States reportedly deployed B‑2 stealth bombers that dropped 30,000‑lb GBU‑57 “bunker buster” bombs on an IRGC compound in Tehran, the same munitions used in the June attack on the Fordow nuclear site. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told his security cabinet that the war with Hezbollah in Lebanon would continue independently of the U.S.–Iran negotiations, describing a “separation of theatres.” In a related development, a missile strike hit a petrochemical complex in Saudi Arabia’s eastern city of Jubail, forcing an evacuation of workers. Israel reported multiple missile impacts in the Tel Aviv area, claiming Iran launched ballistic missiles equipped with cluster warheads, though no casualties were confirmed. Amid the heightened tension, Brent crude rose marginally to just above $110 a barrel in morning trading, reflecting market anxiety over potential disruptions to Middle‑East oil supplies.

In a marked escalation, Israeli airstrikes have intensified across Lebanon while ground forces push further into contested zones. The renewed bombardment underscores a deepening of the offensive, raising concerns about broader regional stability and civilian impact.