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On 23 June 2016, the United Kingdom’s electorate shifted from party‑centric voting to a binary choice between staying in or leaving the European Union. A decade later, about 60 % of the population still define themselves by the side they chose in that single referendum, turning a one‑off political decision into a lasting personal identity.While analysts often focus on the policy fallout—economic turbulence, party infighting, and shifting trade relations—the real impact runs deeper. The referendum ignited a civil‑war‑like split that continues to shape elections, media narratives, and everyday conversations across the country.Before the global upheavals of the George Floyd protests and the Covid‑19 vaccine rollout, Brexit was Britain’s most potent form of identity politics. It spawned new media outlets, such as GB News, and programmes like The Rest Is Politics, while also marginalising older cultural tropes like the “centrist dad” or “gammon” heckler on Question Time. Figures such as Nigel Farage and Zack Polanski now occupy the political fringe rather than the mainstream.The analysis draws on the new book Tribal Politics: How Brexit Divided Britain by political scientists Sara Hobolt and James Tilley. Their longitudinal surveys reveal a simple yet striking pattern: the referendum transformed a previously lukewarm public attitude toward the EU into a powerful, identity‑based habit.Prior to 2016, most Britons held only a mild Euroscepticism and gave the EU little thought. Even former Prime Minister David Cameron tried to silence the issue in 2006, believing it failed to engage voters. The sudden elevation of a niche concern to a national obsession forced ordinary citizens to pick a side, discuss it in pubs, and embed it into their self‑image—a process James Clear describes as building “identity‑based habits”.Data from Hobolt and Tilley show that emotional attachment to the Brexit identity was modest before the vote, rose sharply as the referendum approached, and surged dramatically after the result was announced. The post‑vote period saw a flood of EU‑themed merchandise, street rallies, and even flag‑clashes at cultural events such as the 2017 Last Night of the Proms.Crucially, the tribal divide has not faded. By 2025, only around 40 % of “Leavers” feel comfortable discussing politics with “Remainers”, and the sentiment is reciprocated. This goes beyond mere disagreement; it reflects a level of social discrimination where individuals on opposite sides would hesitate to share a home or marry into each other’s families.The authors note that the split now extends to perceptions of reality itself. Even in 2024, Remainers and Leavers disagreed on basic economic indicators, illustrating how the referendum reshaped not just policy preferences but fundamental worldviews.Class‑based voting, which dominated the 20th‑century British political landscape, has been largely supplanted by this new cultural cleavage. A previous study co‑authored by Tilley showed that the Labour Party’s turn toward the political centre in the 1990s eroded traditional working‑class loyalty. Today, leader Keir Starmer’s working‑class credentials appear largely symbolic, offering little substantive change.With class politics receded, culture wars have taken centre stage. The Brexit campaign’s vague promises about trade left the nation with a protracted, messy adjustment period. Immigration, famously dubbed the “baseball bat” issue by Dominic Cummings, remains the most polarising policy divide, followed by foreign aid and even the death penalty.Hobolt and Tilley’s most striking chart shows that while Remainers and Leavers clash over immigration, they share little disagreement on economic equality, workers’ rights, or public ownership—issues that directly affect household incomes. This suggests that the political battle is driven more by symbolic identity than by material concerns, benefitting those already financially secure.In sum, the United Kingdom’s post‑Brexit reality is one of entrenched tribalism, where a single referendum has reshaped social bonds, political discourse, and perceptions of truth itself. The nation continues to grapple with the legacy of a vote that turned a policy decision into a lasting cultural fault line.

Donald Trump's decision to accept a two-week ceasefire in Iran has created a stir within his Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement, with some supporters expressing mixed reactions to the development. While some have defended the president's decision, others have accused him of betrayal and capitulation.The ceasefire, which was agreed upon after more than a month of war, has been hailed as a victory by both the US and Iran. However, critics argue that the agreement has failed to achieve its objectives, with Iran's regime still intact and its nuclear facilities persisting. The strait of Hormuz remains closed, and fighting continues in Lebanon.Dinesh D'Souza, a right-wing commentator, defended Trump on social media, stating that the president had outsmarted his critics and proved himself to be the adult in the room. Similarly, Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union, expressed confidence in Trump's decision-making, citing his real, actionable intelligence.However, not all supporters are convinced. Matthew Feinberg, a self-described 'MAGA Jew', expressed disappointment, stating that the ceasefire allows the IRGC to regroup and rearm. Laura Loomer, an activist and Islamophobe, also criticized the outcome, saying that the negotiation didn't yield any significant benefits for the US.The Pew Research survey found that, among Republicans, there had been an 18-point decline in confidence in Trump's policymaking about Iran since 2024. Despite this, Republicans aged 65 and older remain overwhelmingly confident in Trump's ability to make good decisions on Iran.

Retail workers in the UK are demanding more robust security measures in stores after a Waitrose employee was sacked for tackling a shoplifter. The incident has highlighted the growing concern over retail crime and the need for enhanced security protocols to protect workers.The employee, Walker Smith, was fired two days after stopping a shoplifter from taking items from an Easter egg display, including Lindt chocolate bunnies. Waitrose has faced criticism for its handling of the situation, with the company stating that it prioritizes employee safety and will not put anyone's life at risk.Joanne Thomas, general secretary of Usdaw, the shop workers' union, emphasized the importance of a physical security presence in stores. According to Usdaw's 2025 annual survey, 59% of members would welcome more security in stores because security guards provide reassurance, act as a deterrent, and have specialist experience to deal with incidents.Richard Walker, chief executive of Iceland, suggested that shop workers need more tools, including AI and potentially batons, to deter thieves. He noted that facial recognition technology is being used in some stores but its effectiveness is limited due to concerns over human rights.The incident has also sparked calls for security guards to be allowed to wear stab-proof vests while on shift. Daniel Garnham, general secretary of the Security Industry Federation, said that assaults on workers are getting worse and becoming an everyday occurrence.Lucy Whing, crime policy lead at the British Retail Consortium, stated that retailers have invested £5bn over the past five years on crime prevention measures, including increased security personnel, body-worn cameras, and anti-theft devices.

Opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea would send a shock wave around the world, senior climate diplomats warned, saying the move would imperil international climate targets, erode the United Kingdom’s reputation as a climate leader and embolden developing countries to exploit their own fossil‑fuel reserves.The UK government faces intense lobbying from the oil industry, Conservative MPs, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party, certain trade unions and factions within the Treasury. Yet research shows that new drilling would do little to lower energy prices and would have almost no impact on gas imports.Two of the remaining large North Sea prospects – the Rosebank and Jackdaw fields – sit in a basin that is over 90% depleted and increasingly costly to develop. Even if fully exploited, they would displace only about 1% and 2% of the UK’s gas imports respectively, according to recent analysis.Senior figures in international climate diplomacy described the prospect of new drilling as dangerous for global emissions‑reduction efforts and a step back from the phase‑out of fossil fuels.Lord Nicolas Stern, professor at the London School of Economics, warned that “new drilling and a slowdown in climate action would be bad for growth and for energy security in the UK, and a damaging signal for the world.” He added that the UK’s pioneering climate legislation and its role as the first G7 nation to commit to net‑zero by 2050 give its actions “extra weight” on the global stage.An anonymous senior African negotiator reacted angrily to the proposal, stating that Africa would “reject any proposal for the UK to expand oil drilling” because it is “fundamentally inconsistent with both the letter and spirit of the Paris Agreement” and would “weaken trust with climate‑vulnerable nations”.Christiana Figueres, former UN climate chief and co‑founder of the Global Optimism think‑tank, argued that true energy independence lies in “scaling clean, domestic energy, not in extending the life of declining industries”. She cautioned that reverting to old‑fashioned oil expansion would lock in infrastructure at odds with the direction of the global energy system.The UK has been a vocal supporter of an upcoming conference in Colombia on the “transition away from fossil fuels”, a pledge made three years ago at COP28 that remains largely unfulfilled. However, the Guardian learned that Ed Miliband, the UK secretary of state for energy security and net‑zero, will not attend; the government’s climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, will travel in his place.Campaigners had urged Miliband’s presence, citing his pivotal role in securing a last‑minute deal at COP30 in Brazil last November.Experts caution that licensing new fields before the Colombian summit could undermine progress in persuading developing nations to forgo fossil‑fuel‑based economies and adopt cleaner energy pathways.Mohamed Adow, director of the Power Shift Africa think‑tank, warned that a UK approval would “send a shock wave around the world that short‑term interests are being prioritised over long‑term responsibility”. He stressed that many African countries are being asked to leapfrog to clean energy with limited financial support, and that wealthy nations continuing to invest in fossil fuels “undermine this message and diminish their credibility”.Several developing‑country officials echoed this concern, asking, “Why shouldn’t we tap into our own fossil‑fuel resources if the UK is doing so?” They argued that leadership on climate must be consistent with actions.An ally of Miliband praised the UK’s stance, calling “no new exploration licences” a “landmark global leadership position” that shows a major oil‑producing country can align policy with climate science to avoid a 3‑4°C warming scenario.A government spokesperson reaffirmed the administration’s commitment, stating that the UK has placed “clean energy and climate at the heart of its agenda”, and that it will continue to “stop issuing licences to explore new fields, in line with the science and in securing a just transition in the North Sea”.

A union representing roughly 2,000 food‑service employees at Los Angeles Stadium has formally appealed to FIFA to ensure that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) stays away from World Cup activities in the city. Unite Here Local 11, which covers cooks, servers and bartenders at the Inglewood venue, warned that a strike could become imminent if its concerns are ignored. The union highlighted that its members are still without a labor contract as the tournament approaches, and outlined three core demands for FIFA and stadium owner Kroenke Sports & Entertainment: A public pledge that ICE and Border Patrol will have no role in any World Cup‑related operations. Guarantees protecting union jobs, working conditions, and a ban on the use of artificial intelligence or automation that could displace workers. Support for a workforce‑housing fund, stricter short‑term‑rental rules, and tax measures aimed at financing affordable housing and protecting immigrant families. ICE Acting Director Todd Lyons has indicated that the agency would play a “key part” in the event, a prospect the union says threatens the safety of both workers and visitors in Los Angeles. “FIFA and its corporate sponsors will pocket billions from Los Angeles while refusing to even acknowledge the cooks, servers, and stand attendants who make this event possible,” said Kurt Petersen, co‑president of Local 11 in a statement. Local 11 also noted that it has repeatedly sought meetings with FIFA since the city was awarded hosting duties, but its requests have been ignored. The venue, known globally as SoFi Stadium, has been temporarily rebranded as Los Angeles Stadium for the World Cup due to sponsor conflicts. The stadium is slated to host eight matches, with the opening game – the United States versus Paraguay – scheduled for June 12. The union’s broader housing demands reflect rising living‑cost pressures in Inglewood and the surrounding Los Angeles area, underscoring the intersection of labor rights, immigration policy, and urban affordability ahead of the global tournament.

U.S. Vice President JD Vance touched down in Budapest on Tuesday for a two‑day series of bilateral meetings, a move the White House billed as a show of support for Prime Minister Viktor Orban ahead of Hungary’s April 12 parliamentary election. Orban’s Fidesz Party faces its toughest test in more than a decade, with recent polls indicating the opposition enjoys an 8‑12 percentage‑point advantage, and some surveys showing a lead as high as 20 points. Princeton sociologist Kim Lane Scheppele warned that Vance’s visit, while symbolically important, is unlikely to significantly alter the electoral math. “One visit by a relatively low‑profile American vice president is not going to change that,” she said. Nevertheless, the trip underscores the close ties between the Trump administration and Orban. Former President Donald Trump endorsed Orban in February, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Hungary that same month, signaling U.S. backing for the right‑wing leader. Orban’s 16‑year rule has been marked by the erosion of judicial independence and media freedom, reforms that critics argue tilt the electoral system in Fidesz’s favour. Yet the opposition, led by 45‑year‑old former Fidesz insider Peter Magyar of the Tisza Party, is rallying around anti‑corruption and economic grievances. Magyar’s campaign promises a more constructive relationship with the European Union, hoping to restore billions of euros in funding suspended in 2022 over democratic backsliding. He positions himself as centre‑right, sharing many of Orban’s policy stances but rejecting the incumbent’s alleged corruption. “Magyar is centre‑right; he’s basically a believer in much of what Orban has done, minus the corruption,” Scheppele noted, adding that his eurosceptic leanings could still facilitate the return of EU money. The Hungarian‑U.S. connection extends beyond politics to financial incentives. Scheppele highlighted that Trump has hinted—though not formally promised—a fiscal safety net for Orban if he wins, reminiscent of U.S. aid pledges made to right‑wing allies in Argentina’s 2025 elections. “If Vance makes that kind of announcement, it could be a real game‑changer,” she warned, suggesting that a concrete U.S. financial commitment could bolster Orban’s standing in the final days of the campaign. Orban’s appeal to the U.S. far right has been evident since Hungary hosted the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in 2024, where Trump lauded him as a defender of “Western civilisation.” The personal rapport between Orban’s political director and Vance—evident in a 2024 photo captioned ‘A Trump‑Vance administration sounds just right’—further cements this transatlantic alliance. As the election approaches, the key question remains whether symbolic diplomatic support or a tangible financial pledge will prove decisive in a race where domestic issues—corruption, social services, and economic stagnation— dominate voter concerns.

Senegal's recent enactment of a harsh anti-gay law has sent shockwaves through the country's LGBTQ+ community and healthcare system. The law, which doubles the maximum prison term to 10 years for same-sex activities and criminalizes the 'promotion' of homosexuality, has led to a surge in arrests and a climate of fear.Over 60 people have been detained since February on charges related to same-sex relations, with many facing forced HIV testing and additional penalties for those who test positive. This has resulted in a significant decline in HIV healthcare services, with a 34.5% drop in consultations recorded at 22 treatment sites across the country.The law's broad framing also risks criminalizing legitimate human rights activities, including those of lawyers, health workers, journalists, and NGOs. This has led to organizations like UJEC (Union des Jeunes Engagés pour Notre Communauté) suspending their services, leaving vulnerable populations without access to essential support and healthcare.Senegal's HIV prevention system, which had been considered one of Africa's most resilient, is now under threat. The country's HIV prevalence among MSM is alarmingly high at 27.6%, and the new law is expected to exacerbate this issue by driving key populations underground and making them more reluctant to seek treatment or testing.The international community has expressed concern, with UNAIDS urging the president not to sign the legislation and highlighting that new HIV infections in Senegal rose by 36% between 2010 and 2024. The situation is further complicated by funding cuts and the US freeze on foreign assistance, which have already weakened the HIV response in the country.As the situation continues to unfold, there are reports of people fleeing Senegal for neighboring countries or seeking asylum in France. The Senegalese Ministry of Justice and supreme court have declined to comment, leaving many to wonder whether the country's HIV prevention system can survive this new legislation and the fear it has instilled.

Donald Trump's open threats to commit war crimes in Iran have raised concerns about his impunity. The US Supreme Court's recent ruling in Trump v United States has given him reason to believe he can act with impunity within the US. However, there are international options for prosecution that lie beyond the court's lawless license.Trump's plan to bomb Iran and destroy civilian infrastructure, such as desalination plants, electrical-generating facilities, and bridges, would violate international humanitarian law's rule of proportionality. The destruction of civilian infrastructure would have a disproportionate impact on civilians, and therefore, it is not justified.The International Criminal Court (ICC) has charged Russian military commanders with war crimes for attacking electrical infrastructure in Ukraine. Similarly, Trump's actions could be prosecuted as war crimes. However, the ICC has no jurisdiction over crimes committed on Iranian territory since Iran is not a member of the ICC.There are alternative routes for prosecution. The Iranian government could join the ICC and grant it retroactive jurisdiction, similar to what Ukraine did to allow prosecution of Russian war crimes. Additionally, under the concept of universal jurisdiction, governments can use their national courts to prosecute certain crimes even if committed by non-nationals abroad.A group of countries, such as the European Union, NATO, or the G7, could establish an international tribunal to address crimes committed in Iran, including war crimes and aggression. This would allow Trump to be prosecuted as soon as the tribunal is established, without waiting for him to leave office.

Amid growing international focus on the Iran‑Israel conflict, Israel is pressing ahead with a systematic annexation of the West Bank, centred on the contentious E1 settlement project. The plan envisions the construction of 3,400 new homes on Palestinian land, a move designed to split the territory and undermine the viability of a future Palestinian state. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has publicly condemned the annexation drive, labeling the E1 scheme illegal. Although the war in Iran and Israel’s military actions in southern Lebanon have delayed the release of construction tenders, officials confirm that the tenders will be issued on 1 June. Criticism from the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy has so far failed to deter the Israeli government, which appears accustomed to rhetorical rebukes without concrete repercussions. As former EU officials note, the Union has yet to leverage its economic and diplomatic weight to stop the settlement expansion. The British Prime Minister has reaffirmed the stance of the International Court of Justice, declaring the 1967 occupation of Gaza, East Jerusalem and the West Bank unlawful. This follows the United Kingdom’s formal recognition of the State of Palestine last year, alongside France, Canada and Australia. Given its historic ties and recent diplomatic recognitions, the UK is uniquely positioned to galvanise European and Commonwealth partners. Experts propose a three‑pronged approach: first, issue a clear warning that any contractor involved in designing, building or financing the E1 settlement jeopardises its commercial interests with the UK; second, impose a comprehensive ban on UK trade in goods, services and investment linked to the settlements; and third, suspend the trade concessions granted under the UK‑Israel trade and partnership agreement for breaching its human‑rights provisions. New Prime Minister Keir Starmer is urged to embed these measures within a broader strategy to strengthen European cooperation, champion equal rights, and secure mutual security for Israelis and Palestinians. Without enforceable consequences, the illegal settlement programme is likely to expand, heightening the risk of further violence. Vincent Fean – former consul‑general in JerusalemDavid Hannay – former UN ambassadorAnn Grant – former high commissioner to South AfricaEmyr Jones Parry – former UN ambassadorDavid Manning – former US ambassadorDavid Richmond – former FCO director generalPeter Westmacott – former US ambassadorJeremy Greenstock – former UN ambassadorFrances Guy – former Lebanon ambassadorPeter Millett – former Jordan ambassadorDerek Plumbly – former Egypt ambassadorEdward Clay – former Kenya high commissionerTony Brenton – former Russia ambassadorWilliam Patey – former Afghanistan ambassadorColin Budd – former Netherlands ambassadorAnthony Cary – former Canada high commissionerAlan Charlton – former Brazil ambassadorEdward Chaplin – former Iraq and Jordan ambassadorPeter Collecott – former Brazil ambassadorRichard Dalton – former Iran ambassadorMichael Hone – former Iceland ambassadorNicholas Hopton – former Iran ambassadorPeter Jenkins – former UN (Vienna) ambassadorRupert Joy – former EU ambassador to MoroccoRobin Kealy – former Tunisia ambassadorRobin Lamb – former Bahrain ambassadorAnthony Layden – former Morocco ambassadorRichard Makepeace – former UAE ambassadorMark Matthews – former Chad ambassadorRichard Northern – former Libya ambassadorChristopher Segar – former Iraq ambassadorAdrian Sindall – former Syria ambassador