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The Core Question: Can Trump's Playbook End the Iran War?The Guardian’s latest video probes whether the tactics that defined Donald Trump's foreign‑policy successes could be repurposed to halt the escalating war between Iran and its regional adversaries. It frames the discussion around three pillars: Trump’s personal diplomacy, his "maximum pressure" approach, and the willingness to broker deals outside traditional diplomatic channels.Trump's Negotiation Playbook: Tactics That Shaped Past DealsPersonalized Direct Talks: Trump often bypassed bureaucratic layers, meeting leaders face‑to‑face (e.g., North Korea’s Kim Jong‑un in 2018).Maximum Pressure Campaign: Heavy sanctions combined with the threat of military force to force concessions.Deal‑Or‑No‑Deal Stance: Clear, binary outcomes that pressured opponents to choose quickly.These elements produced the U.S.–Mexico‑Canada Agreement and the Abraham Accords, but also left critics questioning long‑term stability.Financial and Military Costs of the Iran ConflictU.S. defense spending on Middle‑East operations in 2025: $12.4 billion.Estimated regional infrastructure damage in Iran and neighboring states: $8 billion (World Bank, 2026).Humanitarian toll: over 15,000 civilian casualties reported by the UN as of May 2026.These figures underscore the urgency for a diplomatic breakthrough.Geopolitical Ripple Effects of a Trump‑Style DealA Trump‑inspired settlement could reshape alliances. By offering Iran relief from sanctions in exchange for verifiable nuclear limits, the U.S. might regain leverage in the Gulf, but could also alienate traditional partners like Saudi Arabia and Israel, who fear a weakened deterrent posture.Future Outlook: Scenarios for the Next Five YearsOptimistic Scenario: A limited agreement mirrors the 2020 Abraham Accords, leading to a phased de‑escalation and gradual reintegration of Iran into the global economy.Pessimistic Scenario: Reliance on coercive pressure without a clear diplomatic pathway deepens mistrust, prolonging the conflict.Analysts suggest that any successful application of Trump’s playbook would require a hybrid approach—combining pressure with credible incentives—while navigating the complex web of regional politics.

Al Jazeera’s latest analysis asks a critical question: after five years of intense fighting, is the war in Ukraine shifting into a new phase? The piece reviews recent military movements, diplomatic overtures, and the escalating human and economic costs to gauge where the conflict may be headed.Assessing Recent Battlefield ShiftsUkrainian forces have reclaimed portions of the Kherson region, signaling a potential pivot from defensive to limited offensive operations.Russian troops have redeployed units from the Donbas to reinforce positions along the Crimean front, suggesting a strategic re‑allocation of resources.Both sides report increased use of drone‑based artillery spotting, altering the tempo of engagements.Humanitarian and Economic Toll FiguresThe United Nations estimates over 8 million displaced persons across Ukraine as of early 2026.Casualty reports from the Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights place total deaths at approximately 150,000 since the invasion began.World Bank data show Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 12% in 2024, with reconstruction needs projected at $450 billion.Geopolitical Repercussions Across EuropeNATO has accelerated the deployment of enhanced forward presence battalions in Eastern Europe, reinforcing collective defense commitments.EU sanctions on Russian energy exports have been extended, tightening economic pressure on Moscow.Diplomatic channels, including the Swiss‑hosted peace talks, have seen renewed, albeit tentative, engagement from both Kyiv and Moscow.Potential Trajectories for the ConflictIf Ukraine sustains its momentum, a gradual shift toward a negotiated settlement could emerge, contingent on security guarantees.Conversely, a Russian strategic consolidation might entrench a protracted stalemate, extending the humanitarian crisis.External actors—particularly the United States and China—will likely influence the next phase through military aid, diplomatic mediation, or economic leverage.

Outcry Over Shnaider’s Gazprom‑Backed AppearanceDuring a post‑match press conference after losing 7‑5, 6‑1 to a Russian opponent at the French Open, Oleksandra Oliynykova called for sanctions against fellow competitor Diana Shnaider. Oliynykova said Shnaider’s participation in a Gazprom‑sponsored exhibition in St Petersburg directly supports the Russian war effort in Ukraine. Oliynykova’s Accusations and EvidenceOliynykova presented journalists with photographs of Shnaider playing at the “Northern Palmyra Trophies” exhibition, an event funded by state‑owned oil giant Gazprom. She also shared screenshots suggesting Shnaider had “liked” pro‑Vladimir Putin posts on Instagram, linking the athlete to propaganda supporting the invasion. Absence of Financial Penalties and Sponsorship FiguresNo monetary fine or official sanction has yet been imposed on Shnaider for the exhibition.The article does not disclose the exact amount Gazprom contributed to the event, only that it was a corporate sponsor.Current tennis governing bodies have not publicly addressed the conflict between sponsorship and war‑related funding. Potential Ripple Effects on Tennis Governance and SponsorshipThe demand highlights a broader tension: athletes competing in events backed by entities linked to conflict may face moral scrutiny, while governing bodies claim limited enforcement mechanisms. If sanctions were applied, they could set a precedent for future vetting of tournament sponsors, especially in geopolitically sensitive regions. Future of Sanctions and Athlete ActivismOliynykova’s outspoken stance positions her as a leading Ukrainian voice on the war, suggesting that more players may use their platforms to pressure governing bodies. Should the International Tennis Federation or national federations act, we could see stricter sponsor vetting, possible bans on events tied to sanctioned companies, and a shift toward greater athlete‑led advocacy in sport politics.

The Failed Dealmaker: Trump's Iran Dilemma For weeks, Donald Trump has tried to find a way to end the war he started with Iran – a deal that would allow him to declare victory and move past the conflict before it causes severe damage to the global economy and sinks Republican chances in the US midterm elections. But the self-proclaimed master dealmaker can't seem to stop sabotaging his own negotiations or to acknowledge that Iran is now in a better position to demand concessions than it was before the war. Strategic Missteps: From Military Action to Negotiation Deadlock Over the Memorial Day holiday, Trump skipped his eldest son's wedding in the Bahamas and canceled plans to spend the weekend at his New Jersey golf club. The last-minute changes heightened speculation that Trump was ready to unveil a deal to end the war. Trump then announced that he would hold a cabinet meeting at Camp David, the presidential compound in Maryland that has been the site of historic diplomatic summits. But that meeting was moved back to the White House, as it became clear that Trump had not been able to close a deal he could announce with great fanfare. The Art of the Deal: Trump's Negotiation Paradox Why has an agreement eluded the business titan who wrote the bestselling 1987 book The Art of the Deal? Trump admires strongman leaders and is loth to project any sign of weakness – and he's afraid of reaching a deal with Iran that makes him look weak. The president is also sensitive to criticism that any agreement he negotiates will be worse for the US than the 2015 nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers, which was brokered by Barack Obama's administration. Leverage Reversed: How Iran Gained the Upper Hand Trump's main problem is that Iran has more leverage than he does – and Iranian leaders are well aware of that advantage. On 28 February, Trump launched a joint US-Israeli war against Iran, killing the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other top military and political officials. But Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes against US military bases across the Middle East, and it targeted the energy infrastructure of its Gulf neighbors. Iran also deployed its most effective economic weapon: it closed the strait of Hormuz, through which more than a fifth of the world's oil supply passed each day. Economic Fallout: Global Disruption and Rising Oil Prices The closure of the Strait of Hormuz – along with Iranian attacks on pipelines and gas fields in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – disrupted the global economy and increased oil prices. In the US, average gas prices have jumped by 50%, up to nearly $4.50 per gallon, since Trump launched the war. Trump and his ally, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could not topple the Islamic regime that rose to power after Iran's 1979 revolution. Instead, they ended up strengthening it – by allowing Tehran to deploy its geographic control of the strait of Hormuz into a weapon that could instigate a global energy crisis and a worldwide recession. The Emerging Deal: Limited Concessions and Unresolved Issues The emerging deal is focused on solving a problem that didn't exist before Trump started this war: fully reopening the strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping so that oil prices can stabilize. Under a draft agreement being circulated to US allies, Washington would also lift its blockade of Iranian ports and allow Tehran to access about $12bn in frozen assets. Once again, Trump seems to be aiming for a limited deal with Iran that defers the most difficult questions to future talks, which could drag out for months or even years. Iran's Resilience: Military Strength Preserved In some ways, Iran has emerged stronger after a war intended to decimate its military capabilities. A CIA report sent to Trump earlier this month found that Tehran had managed to retain a significant part of its missile capabilities. The analysis said Iran preserved about 70% of its prewar stockpile of missiles and about 75% of its mobile launchers. The report also concluded that Iran was more resilient than US officials had claimed, and it could survive a naval blockade for months. Political Calculations: Midterm Elections and Trump's Dilemma At his cabinet meeting, Trump said he didn't care about the midterm elections and wasn't in a rush to reach a deal. "It's got to be perfect," Trump told reporters, adding: "I didn't do this to get a crummy agreement." Despite his weak position, Trump insists that he will strike a better deal with Iran than the one negotiated by the Obama administration in 2015. That agreement provided Tehran with relief from international sanctions in exchange for limits on its nuclear enrichment. The Unintended Consequences: Strengthening the Adversary Trump could have avoided starting a regime-change war that failed, leaving the world to deal with its consequences. Instead, the master negotiator handed Iran a new economic weapon – and more leverage to extract a favorable deal. The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you're dead. Trump wrote in his famous book. The best thing you can do is deal from strength, and leverage is the biggest strength you can have.

Iran is grappling with a deepening economic crisis as the costs of a prolonged conflict strain public finances and push the regime toward greater authoritarian measures. Ordinary Iranians are bearing the brunt of soaring prices, a collapsing currency and shrinking job prospects. The Economic Collapse Following the Conflict The war has drained state coffers, forcing the government to divert resources from social programs to military spending. This reallocation has reduced subsidies on essential goods, intensified shortages and heightened public discontent. Quantifying the Crisis: Inflation, Unemployment, and Currency Devaluation Inflation has accelerated sharply, with reports indicating double‑digit growth in consumer prices over the past year. Unemployment, especially among youth, has risen as private sector activity stalls under heavy sanctions and reduced investment. The national currency continues to lose value against major foreign currencies, eroding savings and import purchasing power. Regional and Global Implications of Iran’s Struggling Economy The economic turmoil is reshaping Iran’s regional posture. A financially strained regime may pursue more aggressive foreign policies to rally nationalist support, while neighboring markets feel pressure from disrupted trade flows and refugee movements. Outlook: Prospects for Reform or Further Decline Analysts warn that without substantial fiscal relief or a de‑escalation of hostilities, Iran’s economy could enter a prolonged downturn. Potential pathways include limited market reforms, renewed diplomatic engagement to ease sanctions, or continued reliance on state control, each carrying distinct risks for the population and the regime’s stability.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack will step down after his formal mandate ends, yet he will continue to steer US policy across Syria, Iraq and Turkey.Tom Barrack’s Mandate Ends, Yet His Diplomatic Role PersistsAccording to the statement posted on X, Barrack’s title as Special Envoy expires, but his influence remains intact. The billionaire real‑estate investor, a longtime confidant of former President Donald Trump, has served as the administration’s primary envoy to Syria since May 2025 while also acting as US ambassador to Turkey.Timeline and Financial Footprint of Barrack’s TenureMay 2025: Appointment as Special Envoy for Syria.2022: Acquitted of federal charges alleging unregistered representation for Abu Dhabi.Raised substantial capital from Emirati sovereign funds, though exact amounts were not disclosed.Oversaw a shift toward the interim Syrian President Ahmed al‑Sharaa and advocated easing of sanctions on Damascus.Strategic Implications for US Policy in Syria, Iraq, and TurkeyAnalysts from the International Crisis Group note that keeping Barrack in place without naming a successor signals Washington’s desire for continuity and to preserve his network of regional contacts. His coordination of counter‑ISIS operations with Turkey and Gulf Arab states, as well as his controversial cease‑fire mediation between Damascus and the Kurdish‑led SDF, underscore his central role in shaping a nuanced US approach.What the Absence of a Successor Signals for Future US EngagementThe decision not to appoint a new envoy immediately may indicate a strategic pause, allowing the administration to reassess its “America First” agenda in the region. Observers warn that prolonged vacancy could embolden adversaries or create policy gaps, while Barrack’s continued informal leadership could mitigate such risks. The next few months will reveal whether Washington opts for a formal replacement or continues to rely on Barrack’s informal influence.

Trump Signals Imminent “Final Determination” on Iran DealDonald Trump announced that a decisive ruling on a prospective agreement with Iran to end hostilities will be made soon.Iran’s Stance: Actions, Not Words, Must Precede Any AgreementMohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator, warned that any pact will be judged on concrete actions, not rhetoric.Esmaeil Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry, confirmed ongoing message exchanges but said no final understanding has been reached.Escalating Tensions: Israel Deepens Military Push into LebanonIsrael has intensified its incursion into Lebanon, adding a new layer of complexity to regional diplomacy.Potential Outcomes and Strategic CalculusThe forthcoming US decision could reshape US‑Iran relations, influence Israel’s operational freedom in Lebanon, and affect broader Middle‑East stability.Looking Ahead: Scenarios After the Trump DeterminationAnalysts anticipate three possible paths: a renewed diplomatic corridor, a hardening of sanctions, or a continuation of the status quo, each bearing distinct risks for regional actors.

The UN's Controversial Blacklist AdditionThe United Nations has confirmed placing Israel on a blacklist of countries suspected of committing sexual violence against civilians, with Russia also added to the list. The decision, part of a "conflict-related sexual violence" report released on Friday, has prompted Israel's foreign ministry to announce it will sever all ties with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.The UN cited "credible information" regarding sexual violence committed by Israeli security forces against Palestinian detainees in prisons and other detention centers, noting that UN inspectors had been denied access to these facilities. Israel's UN Ambassador Danny Danon countered that the UN had been invited to check the allegations but chose not to come.Detailed Allegations Against Israeli ForcesThis year's UN report stated that in 2025, "the United Nations verified multiple incidents of conflict-related sexual violence, including as a form of torture, inflicted against 14 men, seven women, nine boys and one girl from the Gaza Strip and the [occupied] West Bank."The report detailed that 13 of these attacks occurred in 2024, with 18 more recorded in 2023 and 2024. The violations included "rape, including with objects, gang rape, attempted rape, physical violence to the genitals, instances of targeted shooting of the genitals, touching of breasts and genitals, strip and cavity searches conducted without apparent security justification, forced nudity and threats of rape."Rape and gang rape were perpetrated against nine victims, primarily Palestinians from Gaza, according to the report. The assaults occurred mainly during detention and interrogation at military camps, checkpoints, and during Israeli military operations in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Survivors included journalists and human rights defenders, with some violations being filmed or photographed.Russia's Addition to the BlacklistThe latest UN report also contains harrowing descriptions of abuses attributed to Russia's military, following "findings of continued patterns of sexual violence documented." The UN human rights monitoring mission in Ukraine had verified 310 cases of conflict-related sexual violence perpetrated by Russian armed and security forces.These cases included rape, gang rape, genital mutilation, electric shocks and beatings to the genitals, injuring 280 men, 26 women and four girls. The report's annex lists 77 parties deemed responsible for patterns of conflict-related sexual violence, including 62 non-state actors, with new additions including three non-state armed groups operating in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.Global Surge in Conflict-Related Sexual ViolenceThe report reveals that nearly 10,000 cases of conflict-related sexual violence were recorded worldwide last year – more than double the previous year's figure. Pramila Patten, the UN official who authored the report, stated that this increase marks a "very disturbing trend" that represents only the "very tip of the iceberg.""This number can be attributed to the fact that we are going through a time when we have a record number of extremely violent conflicts, and the fact that perpetrators are feeling emboldened by a context of impunity, where this crime is almost cost-free," Patten explained.Diplomatic Fallout and Future ImplicationsBeing added to the UN blacklist does not automatically carry specific punitive measures such as sanctions, although public naming and shaming can cause significant reputational damage for the states involved. Those repeatedly listed are barred from UN peacekeeping operations.The UN official noted that she had made several requests for information on preventive measures implemented by Israel but "did not get any response on the substantive aspect." While Israel had extended an invitation for a visit, disagreements about the scope and related issues of access and cooperation ultimately led to its suspension due to Israel's war on Gaza.The addition of Israel and Russia to the blacklist comes at a time of heightened tensions between these nations and the United Nations, with the report likely to further strain diplomatic relations and potentially influence international policy decisions regarding these conflicts.

The latest intelligence from the US Defence Intelligence Agency and the Institute for the Study of War confirms that Russia’s war effort is deteriorating on both the battlefield and the balance sheet.Escalating Russian Territorial Losses in 2026Ukraine reclaimed roughly 400 square kilometres around Dnipropetrovsk during the May 2026 quarter – the largest single‑day gain since late 2022. While Russia still posted a net advance of 104 sq km (40 sq mi) between 1 January and 26 May, this is a steep decline from the 1,619 sq km (625 sq mi) gain recorded over the same period last year.Net Russian advance: 104 sq km (2026) vs 1,619 sq km (2025)Ukrainian recapture: ~400 sq km in May 2026Quantifying the Surge: Casualties and Advance MetricsUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported Russian casualties of 145,000 this year, including 86,000 killed and 59,000 seriously wounded. This translates to 179 Russian losses per square kilometre of advance, up from 67 per km a year earlier – a rate that outpaces Moscow’s recruitment capacity.Financially, Russia has sold 27.9 tonnes of gold worth over $4 billion in 2026, depleting reserves to their lowest level since the invasion began in February 2022.Gold sold: 27.9 tonnes (~$4 bn)Casualties: 86,000 killed, 59,000 woundedLosses per km advanced: 179 (2026) vs 67 (2025)Strategic Consequences for Moscow’s War EffortThe loss of Starlink satellite connectivity has hampered Russian targeting, while Ukraine’s “Logistical Lockdown” programme intensifies drone‑and‑artillery strikes on supply lines. Restricted movement on the M‑14 highway and the introduction of Swedish‑donated Gripen fighters equipped with Meteor missiles further erode Russian operational depth.Financial strain is evident: Russia has exceeded its 2026 budget‑deficit allowance and is drawing down gold reserves at an unprecedented pace, limiting its ability to fund prolonged high‑intensity operations.What the Next Months May Hold for the ConflictIf the current trends continue, Russia’s territorial gains are likely to stall, and recruitment shortfalls may force a shift toward defensive postures. Continued depletion of gold reserves could trigger tighter fiscal controls or increased reliance on external financing, potentially inviting further sanctions.Ukraine’s expanding air‑defence capabilities and sustained long‑range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure suggest that Moscow will face escalating pressure on both fronts, making a rapid escalation or negotiated de‑escalation the most plausible scenarios in the coming quarter.