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Iran has issued a threat to close the Bab al-Mandeb shipping route, a vital waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in response to escalating tensions with the US. Ali Akbar Velayati, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, warned that Iranian allies could shut the route, similar to Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.The Bab al-Mandeb is a crucial passage for global oil trade, with 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passing through it in 2024, accounting for 5% of the global total. A closure of both the Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz would block 25% of the world's oil and gas supply.The strait is effectively controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis, who have already demonstrated their ability to disrupt shipping in the region. During Israel's conflict in Gaza, the Houthis blocked the Bab al-Mandeb for ships associated with Israel or the US.A closure of the Bab al-Mandeb would have significant implications for global trade, particularly for Saudi Arabia's oil exports to Asia and global container shipping from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. It could also exacerbate the ongoing global energy supply crisis.Experts warn that a blockade of the Bab al-Mandeb would create a 'nightmare scenario,' disrupting trade toward Europe and potentially leading to a broader conflict in the region.

Several ships have successfully navigated the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that has been effectively closed since the start of the war in Iran. The development comes as shipping companies and international leaders work to ensure the passage of critical cargo, including oil and gas supplies that account for about a fifth of the world’s total. A French container ship owned by CMA CGM, the CMA CGM Kribi, which sails under the flag of Malta, is reported to have passed through the strait with cargo. This marks a significant development as it is believed to be the first ship owned by a western shipping line to make the journey. The blockade has led to increased oil and gas prices globally and growing concerns about food security, as a third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser normally passes through the strait. International leaders are expected to meet next week to discuss possible solutions, including clearing sea mines and rescuing trapped ships. The UK’s Foreign Secretary, Yvette Cooper, has stated that coordinated action is needed to pressure Iran into reopening the strait. The US President, Donald Trump, has claimed that the US could “easily” open up the strait but that it would require “a little more time”.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has raised concerns about a potential global food crisis due to its impact on fertiliser supplies. The strait is a critical passage for 20% of global natural gas shipments and a third of the global trade in raw materials for fertiliser.The head of the International Rescue Committee, David Miliband, has warned that the situation is a 'food security timebomb', with the window to avert a massive global hunger crisis rapidly closing.Fertiliser prices have already risen by more than 60% in Egypt, reaching $780 (£586) a tonne, up from about $484 in late February. The Qatar Fertiliser Company (QAFCO), the world's largest single site for urea exports, has been offline for almost a month.The Middle East is the source of about 45% of the global trade in sulphur, a key raw material for fertiliser manufacture. Iran is the fourth-largest global exporter of urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertiliser.A prolonged transport shutdown could disrupt production and increase costs, leading to higher food prices and exacerbating global hunger. The world's poorest countries are among the most vulnerable to fertiliser price rises.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz has choked a vital artery that carries roughly one‑fifth of the world’s crude oil and LNG, sending energy prices soaring and unsettling global trade. Even if the waterway reopens tomorrow, analysts say the ripple effects will endure for months. Nils Haupt, senior director of corporate communications at German carrier Hapag‑Lloyd, told Al Jazeera that the end of hostilities does not equate to the end of logistics challenges. “Once the bombardments stop, the real work begins,” he said, noting that hundreds of vessels will scramble for berths in Persian Gulf ports, creating a prolonged bottleneck for containers and bulk cargo. According to the International Maritime Organization, about 2,000 ships are currently stranded because of Iran’s partial blockade, with only a handful of vessels from “friendly” nations granted passage. Maritime‑intelligence firm Windward estimates that roughly 400 of those ships are anchored in the Gulf of Oman, waiting for a green light. Diverted traffic has already forced many carriers to reroute via the Suez Canal or take the far longer Cape of Good Hope passage, inflating transit times and costs for shipments bound for Asia and Europe. Oil exports from Saudi Arabia are now being sent around the Red Sea, bypassing the strait entirely. Svein Ringbakken, managing director of the Norwegian Shipowners’ Mutual War Risks Association, cautioned that even with ports operating at full capacity, clearing the backlog of oil, gas and other goods will take months. He added that repeated attacks on regional energy and transport infrastructure have compounded the problem. The International Energy Agency reports that more than 40 energy assets across the Middle East have suffered “severe or very severe” damage, prompting companies such as QatarEnergy, Kuwait Petroleum Company and Bahrain’s Bapco Energies to declare force majeure. Beyond the immediate loss of flow, the shutdown has disrupted exports of petrochemicals, fertilisers and raw materials essential for plastics production, further straining global supply chains. Industry leaders warn that the risk landscape has fundamentally shifted. SV Anchan, chairman of US‑based logistics group Safesea, highlighted the rise of asymmetric threats, including unmanned vessel attacks, which have already accounted for at least 18 confirmed assaults since the conflict began. “A full reopening will only bring normalcy after a sustained period of stability and credible security guarantees,” Anchan said. Insurance costs have exploded as a result. Marco Forgione of the Chartered Institute of Export & International Trade noted that hull and cargo premiums have surged up to 300 %, a pressure point that could force shipping firms to curtail operations if rates remain high. Oscar Seikaly, CEO of NSI Insurance Group, stressed that war‑risk coverage will only normalize when a “truly permanent” security solution is in place, not a partial one. Recent data from Lloyd’s List show that a few vessels have managed to obtain Tehran’s permission to transit, with one ship reportedly paying $2 million for the right to pass. Iranian lawmakers have also moved to formalise transit fees for the strait. Nick Marro, lead global‑trade analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, warned that the security guarantees demanded by shippers may be hard to meet, citing the volatile Red Sea experience where commercial traffic remains below pre‑2023 levels. Marro predicts that the Hormuz shutdown will accelerate a broader trend of route diversification, similar to the supply‑chain shifts triggered by the COVID‑19 pandemic. “Geopolitical uncertainty will become a permanent feature of risk management, not a temporary reaction,” he said. Seikaly echoed this outlook, suggesting that exporters will increasingly explore alternative corridors for strategic and political reasons, ultimately reducing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the long term.

The Houthis, an Iranian-backed group in Yemen, have recently launched missile and drone attacks on Israel, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict. This move has analysts warning of a potential new front in the war, particularly with the group's ability to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a crucial passage for global commodities trade.The strait, situated between Yemen and the Horn of Africa, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is a key route for 10% of global trade, including a significant share of oil and gas shipments. Blocking this strait could have severe implications for the global economy, potentially disrupting trade and leading to increased inflation.Brigadier-General Yahya Saree, a military spokesperson for the Houthis, announced the group's first attack on Israel, followed by a second military operation using cruise missiles and drones. The Houthis have warned they will continue military operations until Israel ceases its aggression.The group's actions are seen as a significant development in the conflict, with Iran likely to welcome the Houthis' involvement. However, the extent of their participation remains uncertain, with some analysts describing their actions as token participation rather than full engagement.If the Houthis were to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait, it would create a nightmare scenario for global trade, particularly for Europe. This move, combined with potential restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, could cripple trade and have far-reaching economic consequences.Analysts suggest that the Houthis' current posture reflects a deliberate calculation rather than restraint born of weakness. Their decision to target Israel directly, rather than escalating in the Red Sea, indicates a strategic approach aligned with Tehran's broader strategy.For now, the Houthis' threat to block the Bab al-Mandeb strait remains a significant concern, with global trade and economies potentially hanging in the balance.

The Houthis, a Shia sect backed by Iran, have entered the conflict with missile attacks on Israeli military sites. The true significance of their involvement depends on whether they intend to launch sporadic attacks or effectively close off the Red Sea to shipping. Disruption of the Bab al-Mandab strait and the Strait of Hormuz could have a devastating impact on global trade and economy. The Houthis' ability to interdict ships poses a significant threat, and their actions could drive up shipping costs and oil prices. The Houthis have a complex relationship with Iran, receiving arms from Tehran but not directly fighting on its behalf. A ceasefire with the US, mediated by Oman, has been in place since May 2025, but it does not apply to Israel. Saudi Arabia's role in Yemen's future is crucial, as it seeks to reach deals with the Houthis and former Southern Transitional Council (STC) supporters. The Houthis may act cautiously, seeking financial rewards from Saudi Arabia. The conflict could drag Yemen further into regional war, making peace more difficult and prolonging civilian suffering. The UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, has warned of the escalation's risks, stating it will deepen economic repercussions and prolong the suffering of civilians.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has convened a critical meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, against a backdrop of global economic turmoil and rising protectionism. The organization is facing the threat of a 'disorderly collapse' if it fails to strike a new deal on global trade rules.WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that the old 'world order' is not returning, following a year of turmoil marked by US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, including sweeping tariffs.“We will not get it back … We must look to the future,” Okonjo-Iweala said, emphasizing the need for a new approach. The global trading system is experiencing the 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years'.The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, defended Trump's policies, stating that they were a 'corrective response' to a trading system that had overseen 'severe and sustained imbalances'. Greer argued that the 'new world order' would involve agreements between smaller groups, rather than waiting for consensus on a 'lowest common denominator'.The US is critical of the WTO's 'most-favoured nation' (MFN) principle, which governs 72 percent of global trade. China, however, defended the system, warning that abandoning MFN would open a 'Pandora's box'.The European Union signaled its desire to rethink MFN, citing concerns about China. UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant warned of potential fragmentation if no deal is reached on reforms, stating that ministers must 'get this week right' to avoid a 'disorderly collapse of the WTO'.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has issued a stark warning that the world is currently facing the worst trade disruption in 80 years. This severe disruption is having far-reaching implications for the global economy, affecting trade flows and economic stability worldwide.The WTO's assessment underscores the gravity of the situation, with global trade experiencing unprecedented challenges. While specific details on the causes and exact extent of the disruption are not provided, the organization's statement highlights the urgent need for coordinated international efforts to address these issues and mitigate their impact on the global economy.

The rising tensions in Iran have sparked fears of a potential global economic recession. The country's involvement in conflicts has historically led to oil price shocks and market volatility, which can have far-reaching effects on the world economy.Experts warn that an escalation of the conflict could lead to supply chain disruptions, inflation, and economic instability. This, in turn, could increase the likelihood of a recession, which would have significant implications for global trade and economic growth.