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The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has entered its 31st day, with overnight strikes hitting Tehran and other cities, targeting power infrastructure in the Iranian capital and causing a blackout that has since been restored. US President Donald Trump has stated that he wants to "take the oil in Iran", while Tehran has accused Washington of plotting a ground attack despite publicly pushing for a negotiated deal. Trump also mentioned that he is "pretty sure" a deal with Iran will be made. In a diplomatic effort, Pakistan is set to host meaningful talks in the coming days, with the Pakistani Foreign Minister stating that regional foreign ministers discussed ways to bring an early end to the war. The conflict has spread to other regions, with Saudi Arabia intercepting five ballistic missiles heading towards its Eastern province, and Kuwait reporting an attack on a service building and electric power plant, resulting in the death of an Indian worker. The economic impact of the conflict is significant, with Brent crude prices rising 2.98% to $115.93 a barrel, and Asian markets experiencing a decline, including Indonesia's main stock index and Malaysia's FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100.

The ongoing conflict in Iran has caused significant turmoil in the global oil markets, with Brent crude oil prices climbing 51% since the start of March, according to LSEG data. This surge has put Brent crude on track for its biggest monthly gain on record, surpassing the previous record of 46% set in September 1990 during the first Gulf War.On Friday, Brent crude closed at $112.57 a barrel, up from $72.48 a barrel on February 27, the day before the US-Israeli war on Iran began. The price of Brent crude traded as high as $119.50 a barrel during March, its highest level since June 2022, after Iran largely closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passage for a fifth of global oil and gas.Despite a coordinated release of 400m barrels of oil from emergency reserves announced on March 11, oil prices continued to climb throughout the month. Analysts at BloombergNEF estimate that 9m barrels of oil per day have been knocked off global oil supply due to the Middle East conflict.The conflict has also had a ripple effect on other assets, with gold prices falling by almost 15% since the start of March, on track for its worst month since 2008. The spot price of gold has been under pressure from the sale of about $3bn of bullion by the Turkish Central Bank last week, which cut its reserves by almost 50 tonnes to 772 tonnes to fund efforts to stabilize the Turkish lira.The Dow Jones industrial average has also been impacted, entering a correction at the end of last week, more than 10% below its record high. Stocks fell despite US President Donald Trump's latest extension on planned strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure, as investors anticipated prolonged disruption to oil from the Gulf.“Markets appear to be placing less weight on White House jawboning and focusing more on the underlying supply risks,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. Britain's stock market also had a poor month, with the FTSE 100 index falling more than 8% – on track for its worst month since March 2020, when Covid-19 rocked financial markets.

Global markets experienced a significant shift as stock markets in Asia and Europe rose following reports that US President Donald Trump had sent a 15-point framework for peace to Iran. This development sparked hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East, influencing market sentiment. The price of oil, which had fallen by 4% in early trading to below $100 (£75) per barrel of Brent crude, later recovered to approximately $100. This fluctuation was driven by the prospect of an end to the conflict easing the squeeze on oil supply. The straits of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane through which 20% of global oil supplies transit, had been effectively closed by Iran, causing a significant disruption to oil and gas shipments. Iran's announcement that it would permit “non-hostile” ships to pass safely through the strait of Hormuz helped to reopen this crucial waterway. This move, combined with the potential peace plan, contributed to the positive market sentiment. Stock markets in Asia saw notable gains, with Japan’s Nikkei rising by 2.9%, India’s S&P; BSE Sensex almost 2% higher, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng up by just under 1%. European markets also saw increases, with the FTSE 100 in London up by almost 1%, Germany’s Dax trading 1.6% higher, and France’s Cac 40 climbing by 1.4%. However, Iran’s foreign affairs ministry informed the UN Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile” vessels could pass through the strait, which also poses a risk to global food security due to the disruption of fertiliser supplies. The World Trade Organization warned that this could lead to food price shocks. The conflict's impact on gold prices was also noted, as the metal traditionally seen as a safe haven asset during troubled times experienced a 13% decline to about $4,460 per ounce. Additionally, Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, warned that a prolonged conflict could lead to oil prices rising to $150 a barrel, potentially triggering a global recession.

Asian stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Monday, with South Korea's KOSPI index plummeting 6.5% and Japan's Nikkei 225 falling 3.5%. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong tumbled more than 4%, while Australia's ASX 200 closed 0.75% lower and New Zealand's NZX 50 was down 0.7%.The turmoil was triggered by US President Donald Trump's ultimatum to Iran, warning the country to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure within 48 hours. The strait is a critical waterway through which about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas exports usually transit.Trump's threat has added to fears of a cascading global energy crisis as the US and Israel's war on Iran approaches its one-month mark with no clear end in sight. Oil prices have surged more than 50% since the start of the war, which began on February 28. Analysts warn that energy prices are likely to rise significantly further if the strait remains effectively closed, with some predicting oil to hit $150 or even $200 a barrel.In response to Trump's ultimatum, Tehran has warned it will completely close the waterway and launch retaliatory attacks on energy and water infrastructure across the region if Trump follows through on his threat. The deadline for Trump's ultimatum is set to expire at 23:44 GMT on Monday.European markets also saw significant losses, with London's FTSE 100 down 1.4% and the DAX 40 in Frankfurt falling about 2% in morning trading. On Wall Street, US stocks saw significant losses ahead of Monday's opening, with futures tied to the S&P; 500 down about 0.8% as of 07:00 GMT.

Global stock markets swung wildly on Monday as investors reacted to US President Donald Trump's decision to postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants. The move led to a relief rally in European markets, with the French Cac 40, Spanish Ibex, and German Dax all rising by 0.8%, 1%, and 1.2% respectively.The FTSE 100 share index, which had fallen by almost 1.5% in early trading, reversed course to gain 0.4% before paring back to close down 0.2%. US markets were up more than 1% in early afternoon trading on Wall Street.Oil prices, which had been rising after Trump threatened to strike Iranian infrastructure, dropped sharply. Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell 10% to $101 a barrel. The UK month-ahead gas prices fell 6% to 142p a therm.Trump announced on his social media platform Truth Social that the US and Iran had “very good and productive conversations” over the past two days regarding “a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East”. He said he had instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing meetings and discussions.The global economy has been bracing for much higher oil prices due to disruption in the strait of Hormuz, with Goldman Sachs forecasting Brent crude will average $85 a barrel this year, up from previous expectations of $77 a barrel. Brent hit $119.50 a barrel earlier this month, the highest since the war began.