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The ongoing United States-Israeli conflict with Iran has triggered severe disruptions to global LNG supplies in the Gulf, creating the most significant energy market disruptions in recent years. The critical Strait of Hormuz, through which 27 percent of the world's maritime oil trade and 20 percent of LNG shipments pass, has been brought to a near standstill.In response to the conflict, oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia have rerouted oil through alternative pipelines, while Qatar has completely halted LNG production at its Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities following attacks on its energy infrastructure. This disruption comes as natural gas makes up about a quarter of global energy consumption, raising widespread concerns about the impact on nations heavily reliant on gas imports.Natural gas is formed over millions of years from decomposed organic matter subjected to intense heat and pressure beneath the Earth's surface. LNG represents natural gas that has been cooled to -162 degrees Celsius through cryogenic processing, shrinking it to a 600th of its gaseous volume. In its liquid state, LNG is colorless, odorless, and non-flammable, making it safe and efficient to transport across vast distances.Before liquefaction, the gas undergoes purification through water-based solvents and molecular sieve beds to remove impurities including carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, water, and mercury. Heavier hydrocarbons are then separated from methane and ethane through fractionation. The resulting fuel is typically composed of 85 to 95 percent methane, with small amounts of ethane, propane, butane, and nitrogen.LNG is stored in large insulated tanks without requiring high-pressure infrastructure, then pumped onto double-hulled carriers for shipment to terminals worldwide. At destination facilities, LNG is heated using seawater or warm water baths until it vaporizes—a process known as regasification—before being distributed through pipelines for consumption.Once returned to a gaseous state, LNG serves multiple purposes globally. Residential applications include cooking, heating, and electricity generation, while supporting hot water systems in homes and heating for commercial buildings. In power generation, LNG offers a comparatively low-carbon alternative to coal and oil. Industrial applications span fertilizers, plastics, paints, and medicines, with LNG also used to fuel heavy-duty vehicles and ships.The disruption has particularly affected agricultural production, as Gulf nations export close to half the world's traded urea—a key fertilizer component. Natural gas serves as both the primary feedstock and fuel for fertilizer manufacturing, with the halt in production forcing producers across the region to suspend or reduce operations.While primarily valued as an energy source, LNG processing yields significant by-products with industrial and medical applications. The most notable is helium, extracted during cryogenic processing. With global helium production estimated at 180 million cubic meters annually, the disruption to Qatar's LNG facilities has removed approximately 5.2 million cubic meters from the market each month—accounting for about a third of global monthly production.Helium is critical for cooling superconducting magnets in MRI and CT scanners, with the average MRI machine requiring about 1,700 liters of liquid helium. The element is also vital to the data center industry, where it conducts heat away from silicon components, preventing damage to semiconductors. Additionally, the natural gas value chain generates petrochemical derivatives that serve as feedstock for manufactured goods, including medical-grade plastics.According to the International Gas Union's 2025 World LNG Report, 411.24 million tonnes of LNG were traded in 2024. The United States emerged as the largest exporter with 88.4 million tonnes, followed by Australia (81 million tonnes), Qatar (77.2 million tonnes), Russia (33.5 million tonnes), and Malaysia (27.7 million tonnes). Together, these top five suppliers account for more than three-quarters of global LNG supply.China was the largest importer with 78.6 million tonnes in 2024, followed by Japan (67.7 million tonnes), South Korea (47.1 million tonnes), India (26.1 million tonnes), and Taiwan (21.8 million tonnes). These top five importers constituted nearly 59 percent of all global LNG imports that year.South Asian nations face particularly severe risks from the current conflict. Pakistan, where natural gas accounts for 28 percent of electricity generation for its 250 million people, and Bangladesh, where gas supplies half of all electricity for its 176 million population, are heavily dependent on Gulf imports. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates supply approximately 99 percent of Pakistan's LNG imports and 72 percent of Bangladesh's.In response to the energy crisis, Pakistan has implemented emergency measures including a four-day workweek for government employees and extended school holidays. Bangladesh has reduced gas supplies and is seeking nearly $2 billion in international loans to fund energy inputs and maintain price stability. India, which relies on Gulf nations for about half of its LNG and generates 5 percent of its electricity from gas, has shifted toward coal usage as LNG disruptions continue.

Manila, Philippines, is experiencing a rare phenomenon - empty streets. For years, the city's transport congestion has been notorious, ranking worst globally in 2024, according to the TomTom traffic index. However, a 26km drive from the Manila airport to the Quezon City Hall now takes just 45 minutes, instead of the typical two hours, according to Google Maps.The reason behind this sudden change is the surge in fuel prices following the United States and Israel's joint military operation against Iran almost a month ago. This has resulted in a significant decrease in vehicular traffic, with fewer buses, jeepneys, and ride-hailing vehicles plying the streets.The impact is being felt by vendors and transport workers, such as Ruben, a 27-year-old parking attendant, who earned less than half his usual collection on a typical Wednesday. Emily Ruado, a 59-year-old paper napkin vendor, also reported a decline in her daily income from $10 to $5.The financial difficulties faced by individuals like Ruben and Emily reflect a bigger headache for the Philippines, as worries of a sharp increase in prices of basic goods and sudden loss of employment for thousands of people could quickly lead to a stagnating economy. The country's GDP growth rate of 5 percent is now becoming more unlikely.The surge in fuel prices has also exposed the acute insufficiency of Manila's limited railway network, with commuters swelling during rush hour at metro stations. This highlights the need for improved infrastructure and the multibillion-dollar infrastructure corruption scandal still roiling the country.

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has convened a critical meeting in Yaounde, Cameroon, against a backdrop of global economic turmoil and rising protectionism. The organization is facing the threat of a 'disorderly collapse' if it fails to strike a new deal on global trade rules.WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that the old 'world order' is not returning, following a year of turmoil marked by US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies, including sweeping tariffs.“We will not get it back … We must look to the future,” Okonjo-Iweala said, emphasizing the need for a new approach. The global trading system is experiencing the 'worst disruptions in the past 80 years'.The US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, defended Trump's policies, stating that they were a 'corrective response' to a trading system that had overseen 'severe and sustained imbalances'. Greer argued that the 'new world order' would involve agreements between smaller groups, rather than waiting for consensus on a 'lowest common denominator'.The US is critical of the WTO's 'most-favoured nation' (MFN) principle, which governs 72 percent of global trade. China, however, defended the system, warning that abandoning MFN would open a 'Pandora's box'.The European Union signaled its desire to rethink MFN, citing concerns about China. UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant warned of potential fragmentation if no deal is reached on reforms, stating that ministers must 'get this week right' to avoid a 'disorderly collapse of the WTO'.

Fears of economic strain are mounting across Europe as the United States-Israel conflict with Iran approaches its one-month anniversary. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has described the situation as an economic 'catastrophe' for global economies, with impacts already becoming evident.Speaking during a meeting with Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, Pistorius emphasized Germany's willingness to contribute to peace efforts. He stated that Germany is 'ready to secure any peace' and would discuss operations to secure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz if a ceasefire were implemented.The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has further exacerbated concerns by revising global growth projections. The international body cut its 2026 forecast for British economic growth by half a percentage point to just 0.7 percent, while downgrading the eurozone by 0.4 percentage points. In contrast, the US received a 0.3 percentage point upgrade to its growth forecast.Addressing reporters in Canberra, Pistorius criticized the lack of consultation with Germany before the commencement of hostilities. 'Nobody asked us before. It's not our war, and therefore we don't want to get sucked into that war,' he stated, adding that there is no clear strategy, objective, or exit plan from the conflict.The economic repercussions are particularly severe in energy markets. Natural gas prices in the European Union have surged by more than 30 percent since the conflict began, with prices spiking following Israel's attack on Iran's critical South Pars gasfield and subsequent Iranian retaliation against Qatar's Ras Laffan facility.European leaders are increasingly vocal about the economic dangers. European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen has called for negotiations with Iran and an end to hostilities, while urging member states to accelerate preparations for meeting winter gas storage targets. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has described the situation as 'far worse' than the 2003 Iraq invasion, warning of broader and deeper potential impacts.The economic consequences extend beyond Europe, with the OECD noting that the global economy, previously on a path toward growth, has now veered from that trajectory. Planned fiscal tightening and higher energy prices are expected to keep growth subdued in the United Kingdom, though somewhat mitigated by lower policy rates anticipated for the following year.

Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed that an Israeli air strike killed Alireza Tangsiri, commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy, on Wednesday night. Katz stated that the assassination targeted other 'senior officers of the naval command'.Katz described Tangsiri as the man 'directly responsible for the terrorist operation of mining and blocking the Strait of Hormuz to shipping'. He added that Tangsiri was 'blown up and eliminated'. Tangsiri was a 'well-known commander' who shaped Iran's naval doctrine and developed drones for military maritime use. He was also involved in overseeing Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait of Hormuz by blocking some vessels.Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran on February 28, Israel has announced the assassination of several top Iranian officials. The civilian toll is significant, with at least 1,937 people killed, including 452 women and children, and 24,800 injured, according to Iran's Deputy Health Minister Ali Jafarian.Admiral Brad Cooper, commander of US Central Command, said the assassination of Tangsiri 'makes the region safer'. US forces have destroyed about 92 percent of Iran's large naval vessels in ongoing operations.

Oil prices have climbed higher amid fading hopes of deescalation in the Iran war following Tehran’s denial that talks with the United States are under way.Futures for Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose nearly 2 percent on Thursday to top $104 per barrel after Tehran dismissed reports of direct negotiations with US President Donald Trump’s administration.The rise comes after oil prices eased on Wednesday following reports that Trump had shared a 15-point plan for ending the war with Iran.Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with state media aired on Wednesday that Tehran was not engaged in direct talks with Washington and has “no intention of negotiating for now”.White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt warned on Wednesday that Iran would be “hit harder” than ever before if Tehran did not accept military defeat.Iran’s effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for one-fifth of global oil supplies, and its attacks on energy facilities across the Middle East have prompted a surge in energy prices worldwide.Oil prices are up more than 40 percent compared with before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28, prompting numerous countries to implement fuel rationing and other energy conservation measures.Market-watchers say prices are likely to rise further until shipping is free to traverse the strait, despite efforts by countries to bolster supply by tapping emergency stockpiles in coordination with the International Energy Agency.While Tehran has repeatedly claimed that the strait is open to ships that are not aligned with its enemies, daily transits have all but collapsed since the start of the conflict.Four vessels were tracked transiting the waterway via their automatic identification systems on Tuesday, down from an average of 120 daily transits before the conflict, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced a temporary waiver allowing the sale of a higher-ethanol fuel blend, known as E15, in an effort to alleviate soaring gas prices that have been exacerbated by the ongoing Iran war.E15, which contains a higher percentage of ethanol than standard gasoline, has been prohibited during warm weather months due to concerns over its potential to worsen smog. However, the EPA's decision, supported by the US agriculture secretary, Brooke Rollins, aims to provide relief to consumers at the pump.“President Trump is unleashing American Energy Dominance, and today’s action will directly lower prices at the pump and gives a clear demand signal to our domestic biofuels producers,” Rollins stated.The summer waiver for E15 has become a recurring measure in recent years, with both Republicans and Democrats advocating for its permanent implementation to reduce fuel costs. Currently, E15 is already permitted in several states, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, and most of South Dakota.However, not all experts are convinced that the move will significantly lower gas prices. Kenneth Gillingham, a professor at the Yale School of the Environment, pointed out that E15 is not widely available in all states, and some areas lack the necessary infrastructure or sufficient ethanol supply to support increased use.Gillingham also highlighted potential risks associated with E15, particularly for older vehicles, boats, and all-terrain vehicles, due to its higher corrosive ethanol content. Additionally, increased corn usage for ethanol production could lead to higher costs for animal feed and, subsequently, grocery prices.“I think it’s difficult to see when the ledger’s settled how this is a benefit for US consumers,” said Jason Hill, a professor at the University of Minnesota.The decision has also drawn criticism over its potential environmental impacts, with concerns about increased ozone issues, respiratory problems, and even premature deaths.While the oil industry has generally opposed the expansion of E15, citing costly biofuel blending and potential price increases, the American Petroleum Institute has expressed support for the temporary waiver, emphasizing its role in ensuring affordable and reliable energy for American consumers.

The conflict in the Middle East is expected to have a significant impact on the UK's economy, with the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warning of rising inflation and downgrading the UK's growth forecast to 0.7% this year.The OECD's analysis suggests that the UK economy will grow by just 0.7% this year, compared to its last forecast of 1.2% for 2026. This downgrade is attributed to a weakening of the UK jobs market and a contraction in business investment towards the end of 2025.The UK's economy is expected to suffer higher inflation than previously expected, with the OECD citing the country's dependence on international trade and imports of fuel as a major factor. In contrast, France, Germany, and Italy are expected to suffer a more modest hit to growth of 0.2 percentage points.The OECD's chief economist noted that the evolving conflict in the Middle East will test the resilience of the global economy, which is expected to grow at an average rate of 2.9% this year. However, the organization warned of a significant downside risk to the outlook, citing persistent disruptions to exports from the Middle East and potential repricing in financial markets.UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves responded to the OECD's warning, stating that the government plans to take steps to build a stronger, more secure economy, including handing more powers to regional mayors, embracing AI and innovation, and establishing a closer relationship with the EU.

QatarEnergy has invoked force majeure on certain long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply contracts, impacting customers in Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. This decision comes as the company faces production and supply disruptions due to the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran.The force majeure clause, commonly included in contracts, allows a party to be excused from its obligations under unforeseen circumstances. This is not an isolated incident, as petroleum companies in Kuwait and Bahrain have also recently invoked force majeure.The global energy market has been significantly affected since the US and Israel began their attacks on Iran on February 28. Iranian missile and drone strikes across the Middle East, particularly in the Gulf region, have targeted crucial oil and gas facilities. These actions have led to international condemnation and have essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway through which approximately one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG supplies pass.QatarEnergy's CEO, Saad al-Kaabi, recently reported that an Iranian attack on Qatar's Ras Laffan gas facility resulted in the loss of about 17 percent of the country's LNG export capacity. This damage is expected to cause an estimated $20 billion in lost annual revenue and threatens supplies to Europe and Asia. The repairs are anticipated to sideline 12.8 million tonnes of LNG production per year for three to five years.The conflict escalated after the Israeli military targeted Iran's offshore South Pars gasfield, prompting Qatar and other Gulf countries to condemn the attacks on energy infrastructure. These actions are viewed as threats to global energy security and violate international law and the United Nations Charter.